Dalions
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Is his Dad still at the club?
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2017 Draft thread
- Thread starter dlanod
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What would be considered a good enough time in the 2km to allay some of the apprehension surrounding Rayner's ability to eventually be a 80/20 mid/fwd? Top 10 below from this year, would a sub 7 minute be a good sign? for those in the know.
2km time trial
Dylan Moore - 6:09 minutes
Lochie O'Brien - 6:12
Gryan Miers - 6:13
Andrew Brayshaw - 6:14
Aiden Domic - 6:15
Angus Styles - 6:17
Changkuoth Jiath - 6:17
Nathan Murphy - 6:21
Jaidyn Stephenson - 6:21
Ethan Floyd - 6:25
2km time trial
Dylan Moore - 6:09 minutes
Lochie O'Brien - 6:12
Gryan Miers - 6:13
Andrew Brayshaw - 6:14
Aiden Domic - 6:15
Angus Styles - 6:17
Changkuoth Jiath - 6:17
Nathan Murphy - 6:21
Jaidyn Stephenson - 6:21
Ethan Floyd - 6:25
2km isn't very far - Not guaranteed to tell you much about his endurance. I'd consider his final time, but I'd also consider his splits - how much his speed diminishes across the race. What's his pace at medium running intensity? Pity you can't have them do the 2km race, give them 5 minutes, and then ask them to do some repeat sprints - that'd be much more telling.
No we can still nominate him for rookie draft as f/s, which happens by midday Monday 27 November, before rookie draft at 5.10.
But if you follow the discussion on page 215 of this thread and our commitment to redraft Hanley and C Beams, then we are very unlikely to have a vacant rookie spot for him. I'd say he'd have to go the Zorko route and play VFL/NEAFL footy to get drafted in a later year.
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2km (at the pace these guys run) is at the lower end of the duration testing protocols for VO2 max testing. So the distance/duration is selected to assess their VO2 max capacity. From a sports science POV (which is the point of all these tests) the sprints at the end won't tell you anything as it's using entirely different energy systems. Granted it might tell it a little about their psychology and grit and that sort of thing.
winged1
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What would you consider an acceptable time for Rayner given his midfield aspirations?
But that's kinda my point. Oxygen carrying ability is only one relevant factor. Top speed is another. Determination/gut-running is another. Fitness and endurance is another. It's been stated that he's been working on his tank in the offseason. Has it improved? Being able to run 2km at reasonable speed might tell you a bit about his physiology, but I (along with most people here, I assume) am interested in whether he has actually improved gains over 7 or 8 km, particularly at repeat sprint pace.
Think some sort of extended interval running would be best to determine if a draftee has a sound base for AFL footy. Maybe 200m 'race' with 200m jogging/rest period over 2 or 3km? I just can't see how a standard 2km run is going to tell you much.
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winged1
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Yes and any further is a complete waste of time. You would rarely run more than 50m at full speed in a game at any one time, but it is the ability to do a repeat effort that separates real talent. A test devised of 20-30m sprints at short intervals over 15 minutes would be telling.
Rayner might have what you would call white line fever fitness, Lewy Taylor is one that appears to struggle when training but you get him out there on game day and he runs himself into the ground but always seems to find that bit extra when needed.
winged1
Norm Smith Medallist
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Attacking, yes.
ha. i edited my comment to have 400m (edit changed to 200m)intervals runs which are probably just a bit too much. I like 50m sprints but still think a medium distance like 200m?would be a good middle ground.
winged1
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I think it needs to be shorter to mimic game fitness. Though in my senior preseasons we did a lot of 200 sprints.
There is a base fitness that can be tested by the longer distance (2k), but it doesn't relate to game play.
Admittedly a very small sample size and also "highlight" packages, but from what I have seen Rayner hunts the contest and the man when defending.
I stand to be corrected from those who have seen full game videos or better still seen him live.
winged1
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Sorry I was talking about Taylor
Ahh OK, wrong end of the pineapple again.
Nunez
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Yeah Taylor started his career with very little defensive ability. Thankfully he improved a lot this year but has plenty of work to do.
winged1
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He isn't on his own in our midfield. Lack of defensive midfield pressure would be in the first couple of lines of things to address.
Pick 15. Constable, Bonar, Murphy and Higgins are on the board. Who to choose?
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Easy pick for me that one, Aiden Bonar, him and Jaidyn Stephenson have the two biggest upside potential IMO.
scott_the_man
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Higgins for sure. Very safe pick, but I don't think he will be there at 15.
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I don't know too much about the players and draft as much as you guys but l wouldbn't mind Constable. Big, modern inside midfielder, doesn't fumble too much, could complement Berry and Matho and LDU if we nab him
pulpdriver
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I like Bonar the most of that group the so would take him. Higgins would be a good get though too. I suppose if all four are there at 15 we're guaranteed to get two of them if we'd like. If we take Bonar you would think Dogs would take Murphy and then Richmond would be looking at one of the talls still on the board and we could take Higgins with 18. I think we'd have to be pretty lucky for all four to be available though.
It will be interesting to see how constable runs in the 2km as well. The knock on him is supposed to be his running too.
I guess if we pick Brayshaw it may not matter so much but if we go with Rayner, the club would be crazy to bring in another player with running issues. North did that with cunnington and ziebell which has badly affected their midfield IMO.
Fogarty's time will also be interesting. I'm hoping it's good so he doesn't drop anywhere near our picks.
I guess if we pick Brayshaw it may not matter so much but if we go with Rayner, the club would be crazy to bring in another player with running issues. North did that with cunnington and ziebell which has badly affected their midfield IMO.
Fogarty's time will also be interesting. I'm hoping it's good so he doesn't drop anywhere near our picks.
This time trial isn't supposed to mimic real running patterns in a game. That's not the point IMHO.
It's easy to think that when Dylan Moore runs 6 minutes, he's a fit bastard and that's what fit people do. 3-minute kilometres hurt almost everyone.
It's not really a case of training till you get to the stage where it becomes comfortable. Time trials are never ever comfortable. You just get more used to dealing with how bad it feels at about 4minutes in.
If Moore or Lochie O'Brien were ever feeling comfortable, they'd be kicking it down to try to run 5:40. There's a line you can pass where it's too fast and you start losing control of your legs. Ideally, you try to run 1% slower than that.
To me, it's a test of toughness and managing your brain under pressure from your body.
I'll be surprised if Rayner runs under 7-minutes. But if he runs 7-minutes but grinds it out hard and doesn't fade, I think it'll show a bit about how he responds to hard challenges and tough times. If it's 7:30 and he looks a bit coasty through the second half, that'll be a different message.
It's easy to think that when Dylan Moore runs 6 minutes, he's a fit bastard and that's what fit people do. 3-minute kilometres hurt almost everyone.
It's not really a case of training till you get to the stage where it becomes comfortable. Time trials are never ever comfortable. You just get more used to dealing with how bad it feels at about 4minutes in.
If Moore or Lochie O'Brien were ever feeling comfortable, they'd be kicking it down to try to run 5:40. There's a line you can pass where it's too fast and you start losing control of your legs. Ideally, you try to run 1% slower than that.
To me, it's a test of toughness and managing your brain under pressure from your body.
I'll be surprised if Rayner runs under 7-minutes. But if he runs 7-minutes but grinds it out hard and doesn't fade, I think it'll show a bit about how he responds to hard challenges and tough times. If it's 7:30 and he looks a bit coasty through the second half, that'll be a different message.
