2017 Draft thread

[WhiteLionFeva]

Let's not disregard the effect this would be having on Stephenson and his family. Even leaving aside the very important issue of his long term health and the publicity surrounding it, the poor kid has gone from a top 5 certainty to play AFL to a doubtful proposition overnight. I'm sure someone will pick him up but very unfortunate for him to be in this position given his abilities and the effort he has no doubt put in to get this far.

 

[Nunez]

We were pretty strong during our premiership years one would have thought and yet we still lost first round talent. Stats dont lie.

We lost a few back then, but as a weak team we have leaked like a sinking ship. Big difference.

The good thing is our welfare and off field team have developed and adapted.

 

[Bobby Beecroft]

We were pretty strong during our premiership years one would have thought and yet we still lost first round talent. Stats dont lie.

Blake Caracella only gave us 2 years and was taken at 10.

 

[scoman]

Blake Caracella only gave us 2 years and was taken at 10.

Typical. Bet he ran home to mum too.

 

[DanT7]

I’d go:
Rayner
Stephenson
Bonar

 

[scoman]

We lost a few back then, but as a weak team we have leaked like a sinking ship. Big difference.

The good thing is our welfare and off field team have developed and adapted.

Lets hope so. Its going to be a huge year on that front. Trying to get Clugga, Witherden and most likely Raynor to extend. Could make or break our club.

 

[WhiteLionFeva]

We were pretty strong during our premiership years one would have thought and yet we still lost first round talent. Stats dont lie.

But the stats aren't that compelling either. We lost a few but for different reasons. For the drafts from 98/99 to 03/04, we lost 4 of first round picks = Headland, Cupido, Brennan and Spaanderman. Only the first two of these were due to the go-home factor and subsequent events show that Cupido was a bust anyway. Brennan gave us a some good service and then went down the highway and the less said about the Spandex man the better. I haven't included Gram, who was a pick 19 or Troy Selwood (also pick 19) whom we delisted. Have I missed someone?
EDIT: 2004/05 it was Cameron Wood at pick 18. I don't see a lot of lost talent there in our premiership years.

 

[Jivlain]

4) This isn't just a concern from our medical team. All year Stephenson has been rated generally a top 5 prospect. So if it gets to the stage where Stephenson is on the table at #15, that would mean that North, Fremantle, Collingwood, St Kilda, the Bulldogs, Carlton, GWS, Adelaide, West Coast, and Sydney had all ruled him out too. That alone should be indicative of just how big a risk this may be.

5) I completely disagree with your assertion that there is a lack of quality midfield depth around pick 15. I imagine most recruiters would also.

6) Taking Rayner on the hope he may be able to turn into a full time midfielder is what could be considered a 'punt'. Nobody is entirely sure if it will be successful, but even if it isn't we'll likely have a very decent forward option who just struggles a bit running out games.

Taking a player that our medical staff have advised us completely against taking, however, is not a punt. That is just stupidity. That is blindly ignoring professional opinion.

I understand a number of fans have developed somewhat strong emotional attachments to Stephenson (I get it - I probably have also with Rayner). That's part of the draft cycle. But the notion that supporters on here would be more qualified to make this call than numerous teams of medical experts is one of the more quintessentially BigFooty things I've seen.

It's important to note with Stephenson is on the table at #15, that doesn't mean "North, Fremantle, Collingwood, St Kilda, the Bulldogs, Carlton, GWS, Adelaide, West Coast, and Sydney had all ruled him out too". The heart condition is a risk factor. That reduces his expected value. If that puts his expected value below the expected values of other available players, then North, Fremantle, and so forth all draft them instead. It does not say that they've "ruled him out" (they may have, but their not drafting him does not prove it - especially for the earlier clubs there).

In addition, if at pick one we take some player with a degree of risk to him (Rayner being an obvious example here), that may make us less willing to bear additional risk at 15. On the other hand, if we take a low-risk solid-citizen type at one (Brayshaw, say), then a high-risk high-reward pick at 15 or 18 potentially becomes more palatable.

Which leaves us at the question of what our club's medicos reckon about that condition. If they completely rule him out, then set expected value to 0 and do not draft anywhere. Or they might have assessed it as a risk but leave the door open to drafting (at a later pick than might otherwise have been the case).

 

[briztoon]

It's important to note with Stephenson is on the table at #15, that doesn't mean "North, Fremantle, Collingwood, St Kilda, the Bulldogs, Carlton, GWS, Adelaide, West Coast, and Sydney had all ruled him out too". The heart condition is a risk factor. That reduces his expected value. If that puts his expected value below the expected values of other available players, then North, Fremantle, and so forth all draft them instead. It does not say that they've "ruled him out" (they may have, but their not drafting him does not prove it - especially for the earlier clubs there).

In addition, if at pick one we take some player with a degree of risk to him (Rayner being an obvious example here), that may make us less willing to bear additional risk at 15. On the other hand, if we take a low-risk solid-citizen type at one (Brayshaw, say), then a high-risk high-reward pick at 15 or 18 potentially becomes more palatable.

Which leaves us at the question of what our club's medicos reckon about that condition. If they completely rule him out, then set expected value to 0 and do not draft anywhere. Or they might have assessed it as a risk but leave the door open to drafting (at a later pick than might otherwise have been the case).

I don't think PattyKwasagun could have been anymore clear, and sounds like he is speaking with inside information, our medical team has completely ruled out taking Stephenson.

 

[Kevvo]

I don't think PattyKwasagun could have been anymore clear, and sounds like he is speaking with inside information, our medical team has completely ruled out taking Stephenson.

I am absolutely on board with PKWG's credibility but I think Jivlain 's point is a reasonable one. There is ruled out and ruled out. It would be hard to stick to that if (for example) he was available at our last pick. We could easily be saying we've 'completely ruled him out' thinking that there is no way he's there at our last pick, but a top-10 talent at that stage of the draft for essentially no cost could change the equation.

 

[Chezz]

I don't think PattyKwasagun could have been anymore clear, and sounds like he is speaking with inside information, our medical team has completely ruled out taking Stephenson.

Unless Stephenson's heart condition is as bad as Jayden Pitt (which by all reports it's nowhere near as bad) if he's around at 15 and we don't draft him, it will go down as one of the biggest drafting howlers of all time.

He has been cleared as good to go by heart specialists and AFL doctors, so to rule him out would be a massive blunder. In my view, should be pick 1 (not factoring the heart situation)

 

[a mayes ing]

Unless Stephenson's heart condition is as bad as Jayden Pitt (which by all reports it's nowhere near as bad) if he's around at 15 and we don't draft him, it will go down as one of the biggest drafting howlers of all time.

He has been cleared as good to go by heart specialists and AFL doctors, so to rule him out would be a massive blunder. In my view, should be pick 1 (not factoring the heart situation)

What about the medication that he needs to manage the conditions? There would be some side effects

 

[Harris Specter]

Unless Stephenson's heart condition is as bad as Jayden Pitt (which by all reports it's nowhere near as bad) if he's around at 15 and we don't draft him, it will go down as one of the biggest drafting howlers of all time.

He has been cleared as good to go by heart specialists and AFL doctors, so to rule him out would be a massive blunder. In my view, should be pick 1 (not factoring the heart situation)

Calm down Jaidyn's dad.

 

[Hollow Knight]

If we manage to pull off the Cam Rayner/Lachie Fogarty double, hopefully Fogarty isn’t just talked about as Rayner’s security blanket. Very handy footballer.

 

[WA Lion]

Unless Stephenson's heart condition is as bad as Jayden Pitt (which by all reports it's nowhere near as bad) if he's around at 15 and we don't draft him, it will go down as one of the biggest drafting howlers of all time.

He has been cleared as good to go by heart specialists and AFL doctors, so to rule him out would be a massive blunder. In my view, should be pick 1 (not factoring the heart situation)

Worth remembering that there is a difference between being cleared to play physically, and being able to perform to the level required to be successful at AFL level.

Just because he has been given medical clearance, doesn't automatically mean that he will be able to play to the best of his abilities. Josh Toy had medical clearance, but was never able to physically perform to the required level for example.

I am a massive Stephenson fan, but a club doesn't put a line through a top 5 rated player unless they have significant concerns.

 

[Hollow Knight]

Worth remembering that there is a difference between being cleared to play physically, and being able to perform to the level required to be successful at AFL level.

Just because he has been given medical clearance, doesn't automatically mean that he will be able to play to the best of his abilities. Josh Toy had medical clearance, but was never able to physically perform to the required level for example.

I am a massive Stephenson fan, but a club doesn't put a line through a top 5 rated player unless they have significant concerns.

Well said.

It always amuses me how the pre/post draft melters seem to assume that our recruiters haven’t factored in all the available evidence before making a considered decision.

Nothing wrong with disagreeing but can people at least afford the recruiters the assumption of being professional and methodical in their approach. Anything otherwise is just waving a massive “I’m a crank” flag.

 

[ULittleBeauty]

So if Brander is still there at pick 18 do we pick him or do we go with Bailey or Constable if they are the best available mids (assuming Stephenson has already been taken)?


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[JasperBeardly]

If we manage to pull off the Cam Rayner/Lachie Fogarty double, hopefully Fogarty isn’t just talked about as Rayner’s security blanket. Very handy footballer.

Would be good if he gets to us. The pick range associated with him keeps getting earlier and earlier, though, so it's looking less certain than has previously been suggested.

 

[briztoon]

Unless Stephenson's heart condition is as bad as Jayden Pitt (which by all reports it's nowhere near as bad) if he's around at 15 and we don't draft him, it will go down as one of the biggest drafting howlers of all time.

He has been cleared as good to go by heart specialists and AFL doctors, so to rule him out would be a massive blunder. In my view, should be pick 1 (not factoring the heart situation)

I don’t see it that way.

The way I see our list and rebuild, is that we’re not in any position to take risks with early picks.

If you read one of PattyKwasagun replies, the Brisbane heat is a concern, and seeing as the boys spend 5 months training in it, that’s a risk to Stephenson.

This is not like drafting a player who had had a knee reco (or two), we’re potentially talking about a players life.

Other teams have been so concerned, that not only have they been speaking to the AFL doctors, they’ve been speaking to the AFL lawyers about scenarios and ramifications.

 

[jackess]

So if Brander is still there at pick 18 do we pick him or do we go with Bailey or Constable if they are the best available mids (assuming Stephenson has already been taken)?


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I'd prefer Brander. Think he'll be a gun key back. Possibly better than McStay. Bailey>Constable.

 

[Kevvo]

Would be good if he gets to us. The pick range associated with him keeps getting earlier and earlier, though, so it's looking less certain than has previously been suggested.

Yeah, that worries me a bit too.

I'm actually quite excited about the prospect of Lachie Fogarty. He seems naturally comfortable around the contest, marks it well overhead and looks to be a nice kick for goals from around the 50m arc. You really can never have too many long kicks for goal I reckon.

 

[a mayes ing]

We don't need talls, Ballenden and Payne are enough.

 

[WheildonTheAxe]

But the stats aren't that compelling either. We lost a few but for different reasons. For the drafts from 98/99 to 03/04, we lost 4 of first round picks = Headland, Cupido, Brennan and Spaanderman. Only the first two of these were due to the go-home factor and subsequent events show that Cupido was a bust anyway. Brennan gave us a some good service and then went down the highway and the less said about the Spandex man the better. I haven't included Gram, who was a pick 19 or Troy Selwood (also pick 19) whom we delisted. Have I missed someone?
EDIT: 2004/05 it was Cameron Wood at pick 18. I don't see a lot of lost talent there in our premiership years.

Cameron Wood is talented at game shows.

 

[Cockliff38]

Don't think it has been mentioned in here but Cal having Oskar Baker going to the Dees at 30 is surprising. Good luck to him

 

[jackess]

We don't need talls, Ballenden and Payne are enough.

It comes to pick 18 and we can take an A grade key back or a B grade midfielder. You'd select the midfielder?