2017 Draft thread

[SizeMatters]

I hope Rayner goes gangbusters for the rest of the year so a club trades up to pick 1 for him. Then we can get LDU and a bonus prize. The 2017 equivalent of McClugberry.

Not a fan of Rayner? Go home issues you think?
Edit: NVM saw following posts. I agree though if opportunity presents itself we'd be stupid to not entertain a trade... get as many first round talents into the club ASAP.

 

[BuntonRules]

Lightning won't strike twice.

 

[winged1]

Lightning won't strike twice.

Actually lightening is likely to strike the same spot repeatedly. That's why they have lightening rods.

Just saying...

 

[cotter101]

Brett Anderson for one. Was asked on twitter by a Lions fan if Rayner was a possible flight risk. I C&P the reply on here a couple of pages back.

Anderson's certainly entitled to his opinion, I just wonder what makes him think he could be a possible flight risk. Doesn't scream flight risk from my dealings.

With that said, Nicholas Coffield is one I want at the Lions. He'll go top 10 imo.

 

[briztoon]

I know I will be in the minority, but I would still pick LDU ahead of Rayner.

And I would be doing everything possible to trade up to pick Paddy Dow.

After that, there's little out there (Worpel aside) that excites me. I genuinely question the talent throughout. From the top end, the first round and total depth. Wouldn't surprise me if the draft only goes three rounds deep.

Seriously, next years crop who have played through the championships has looked real good.

 

[briztoon]

Anderson's certainly entitled to his opinion, I just wonder what makes him think he could be a possible flight risk. Doesn't scream flight risk from my dealings.

With that said, Nicholas Coffield is one I want at the Lions. He'll go top 10 imo.

Coffield has looked good. This years Jarrod Berry?

 

[Hollow Knight]

Future picks are going to have serious currency this year. I don't think we will/should, but I wonder if some club will be willing to take advantage of this and attack this draft instead.

Hawks might take a swing considering they are irrelevant in this draft.

 

[M Malice]

Connor Ballenden getting some good reviews mmmm, we might only get one pick in before he is bid on.

I would be all for packaging up ports pick (death ride) and our current pick 18 to get as high as possible up the draft board and get 2 picks in before Connor if the consensus is he is a top 5-10 pick. Our recruitment staff will have a pretty good idea in what range the bid will come by trade week.

 

[Hollow Knight]

Connor Ballenden getting some good reviews mmmm, we might only get one pick in before he is bid on.

I would be all for packaging up ports pick (death ride) and our current pick 18 to get as high as possible up the draft board and get 2 picks in before Connor if the consensus is he is a top 5-10 pick. Our recruitment staff will have a pretty good idea in what range the bid will come by trade week.

We'd be absolutely nuts to not do this. I'm sure Noble will be all over it.

A couple of caveats though...

- Would be a nightmare though if we packaged up and an earlier bid for Ballenden still came!
- We also have to be careful about damaging our 2018 draft. Let's say we trade up to pick 6 and Ballenden gets bidded on at 7. We not only wipe out the rest of our draft, but also if we can't match the points with our limited remaining picks, we lose points off our 2018 first rounder. Could be the difference between missing out on a Rankine or Lukosius.

 

[M Malice]

We'd be absolutely nuts to not do this. I'm sure Noble will be all over it. Would be a nightmare though if we packaged up and an earlier bid for Ballenden still came!

Life and the draft is a gamble, you just have to do your research, have a pinch of insider knowledge and a dash of luck.

It would be tense on draft night if we went in with pick 1 and 7, took Rayner and then waited it out holding our breath, took Coffield (one of if not the best kick in the draft pool) at 7 and then Ballenden is bid on at 8.

 

[cotter101]

Coffield has looked good. This years Jarrod Berry?

Both are leaders, but play a bit differently. I see parts of Coffield that remind me of a young Chris Judd.

 

[Hollow Knight]

VIC METRO 2.3 3.9 6.11 10.13 (73)
ALLIES 1.2 3.5 6.6 11.10 (76)

GOALS
Vic Metro: Rayner 3, Sutherland 2, Hayes 2, Higgins 2, Brayshaw
Allies: Dixon 3, Brander 3, Bailey, Crossley, Sambono, Lane, Hardman

BEST
Vic Metro: Naish, Brayshaw, Coffield, Higgins, Hayes, Cerra
Allies: Bailey, Brander, Crossley, Dawson, Dixon, Ballenden

 

[M Malice]

I've seen Sambono in a couple of games on NITV and he looks quite good as a small forward, can take a mark as well, skinny as a rake though.

 

[jjami15]

I know I will be in the minority, but I would still pick LDU ahead of Rayner.

And I would be doing everything possible to trade up to pick Paddy Dow.

After that, there's little out there (Worpel aside) that excites me. I genuinely question the talent throughout. From the top end, the first round and total depth. Wouldn't surprise me if the draft only goes three rounds deep.

Seriously, next years crop who have played through the championships has looked real good.

No, your not in the minority. I didn't get a chance to watch all of today's game but LDU (when playing mid) was always around the contest, he runs both ways, keeps the arms free, keeps feet and gets rid of it pretty well much to advantage. He has a greater skill set than Rayner. I did notice that he didn't get really down and dirty into the contest (like Worpol) and doesn't really tackle too much. He does have a good balance of inside and outside. I thought I read somewhere he reminds them of Pendlebury, there are similarities but he doesn't have that make time stand still quality. Bit of Travis Boak maybe.

 

[jjami15]

I've seen Sambono in a couple of games on NITV and he looks quite good as a small forward, can take a mark as well, skinny as a rake though.

I liked what I saw of Sambono and would be quite happy if he was a late to rookie pick. Jeff Garlett like.

 

[Len S]

Len - Zac Bailey is from my old stomping ground Darwin. Plays for the club Southern Districts Crocodiles who have produced Nathan Buckely, Fabian Francis, Aaron Shattock,Richard Tambling,Jared Brennan, Allan Corrie - Steven May and Nakia Cockatoo and both Gilbert and Adrian McAdam not a bad effort for a club in rural Darwin.

I think young Bailey is now at Norwood and you would expect him to be drafted in the top 30 after that performance.

Thanks Briz. and Royboys.I watched the first game, and a quarter of the second.The first game developed into a finals type contest,underline contest.Really enjoyed it.Further to Zac.After Rayner kicked what could have been the winninng goal, he went to the centre square. How Bailey won that contest I'm unsure,but he exploded from the centre with incredible acceleration and urgency...His opponents were still standing when the goal went through. Our first draft will be a mid....I think we badly need someone who breaks lines ,has acceleration and kicks goals....Dangerfield, rather than Sellwood. We have Mathieson and Berry and others of the more inside variety.Which is why Bailey looked interesting....the allies kids are far less noticed and hyped,they shook things up today.I am concerned at LDU's one pace style...Brander did great things,but didn't strike me as an onballer.Rayner has star quality, and kicks well,need to know more about his character. Worpel seems similar to LDU.Paddy, can kick a goal and has a top work rate,he'll be anywhere between 10 and 20 possibly. Stephenson did some good things early,but was more closely watched and I thought got less on ball time,takes a nice mark by the way.Ballenden just got better and better,disposal superb.Higgins'struggles for distance with longer shots on today,the rain lasted only a few minutes and had little if any effect. Rankine,put in an early bid for first spot next year!

 

[buttermuffs]

Thanks Briz. and Royboys.I watched the first game, and a quarter of the second.The first game developed into a finals type contest,underline contest.Really enjoyed it.Further to Zac.After Rayner kicked what could have been the winninng goal, he went to the centre square. How Bailey won that contest I'm unsure,but he exploded from the centre with incredible acceleration and urgency...His opponents were still standing when the goal went through. Our first draft will be a mid....I think we badly need someone who breaks lines ,has acceleration and kicks goals....Dangerfield, rather than Sellwood. We have Mathieson and Berry and others of the more inside variety.Which is why Bailey looked interesting....the allies kids are far less noticed and hyped,they shook things up today.I am concerned at LDU's one pace style...Brander did great things,but didn't strike me as an onballer.Rayner has star quality, and kicks well,need to know more about his character. Worpel seems similar to LDU.Paddy, can kick a goal and has a top work rate,he'll be anywhere between 10 and 20 possibly. Stephenson did some good things early,but was more closely watched and I thought got less on ball time,takes a nice mark by the way.Ballenden just got better and better,disposal superb.Higgins'struggles for distance with longer shots on today,the rain lasted only a few minutes and had little if any effect. Rankine,put in an early bid for first spot next year!

Bailey looks really intriguing. Although it's on game, we could snag him if we manage to get another pick in the draft.

 

[briztoon]

I'd happily put it out there that if a bid came in for Ballenden before pick X that we have no intention to match the bid.

I'd also take 4 picks in to the draft with the intention of using the last two to match a bid on Ballenden. As I have said, and others have speculated, this draft might not go much beyond the third round, so as teams pass, our relegated fourth pick moves to the back of the draft after using it to match a bid on Ballenden (which is currently our 5th round pick, pick 72) keeps moving back up the draft order.

Would the team consider trading a 2018 3rd round pick for a 2017 3rd round pick or late second round pick, purely to accumulate points to match a bid on Ballenden. What value does a 2018 3rd round pick hold compared to a possible 2017 first round talent and academy member. Gold Coast hold 4 second round picks, Hawthorns, Fremantles, their own and Richmonds.

That Richmond pick would certainly be available for the right trade. Currently worth 563 points, add that to our 3rd round pick currently worth 429 points. 992 points matches a bid at pick with some points left over. Or contributes enough points towards pick 8 to carry a 248 point deficit in to the 2018 draft. Not enough to down grade picks 1 or 2, and only down grades picks 3, 4 or 5 back one place.

There is a little wiggle room at the top of the draft to carry a small deficit in from the previous years draft without it moving our pick back. I'd be comfortable carrying a 350 point deficit in to the draft. If we finished last, it doesn't move us out of pick 1. If we finished either 17th or 16th it means we only move back one spot.

 

[John_Proctor]

Depending on who isn't using late picks we could trade down pick 44 for 2 later picks and slightly increase points.

Eg. Richmond has 15/16/50/53. If they only wanted 3 picks we could trade 44 (362 points) for 50/53 (500 points) our pick 72 then isn't a live pick which is only 20 points.

Obviously a million scenarios to play out in all that.

 

[Carlos Danger]

This draft is so unpredictable. There are players in the top 5 by some judges and outside 20 with others and all sorts of variation in between. One of the draftees still hasn't decided between cricket or footy.

Think the last 2 months of the season will be more important than normal in determining the draft order.

Also no need to be spooked by draft quality. It's the 3rd & 4th round that's a bit meh. We prob don't plan on using a pick after 18. We couldn't be in a better position right now.

I reckon Richmond will be the club into ballenden so hopefully they finish higher than port.

 

[briztoon]

Thanks Briz. and Royboys.I watched the first game, and a quarter of the second.The first game developed into a finals type contest,underline contest.Really enjoyed it.Further to Zac.After Rayner kicked what could have been the winninng goal, he went to the centre square. How Bailey won that contest I'm unsure,but he exploded from the centre with incredible acceleration and urgency...His opponents were still standing when the goal went through. Our first draft will be a mid....I think we badly need someone who breaks lines ,has acceleration and kicks goals....Dangerfield, rather than Sellwood. We have Mathieson and Berry and others of the more inside variety.Which is why Bailey looked interesting....the allies kids are far less noticed and hyped,they shook things up today.I am concerned at LDU's one pace style...Brander did great things,but didn't strike me as an onballer.Rayner has star quality, and kicks well,need to know more about his character. Worpel seems similar to LDU.Paddy, can kick a goal and has a top work rate,he'll be anywhere between 10 and 20 possibly. Stephenson did some good things early,but was more closely watched and I thought got less on ball time,takes a nice mark by the way.Ballenden just got better and better,disposal superb.Higgins'struggles for distance with longer shots on today,the rain lasted only a few minutes and had little if any effect. Rankine,put in an early bid for first spot next year!

I look at LDU as a bigger version of Rockliff without the high tackling numbers. LDU can explode from a pack, we just haven't seen much of it. Really waiting for private school footy to finish up and all the TAC cup teams to be at full strength. I think it was Luke Power on Twomey's podcast who made the comment last week before the VicC v VicM game that LDU had already played 11 games this season, when during his first appearance on Twomey's podcast that from an academy perspective, the academy coaches really only want the kids playing about 18 games in a season.

The way I've looked at the kids, LDU replaces Rockliff, Dow replaces Zorko, McCluggage to replace Beams, Berry to replace MRobo, then add Rankine next year as the midfield X factor who looks like he can be a real game changer.

We potentially have a game winner already in Hipwood.

Both LDU and Dow can do this.

 

[trikster]

Ablett's top 10
Rayner, Sutherland, Fogarty (Darcy), Stephenson, Brander, LDU, Hayes, Dow, Cerra & Naughton (not in order).

Rayner, LDU & Fogarty the top three.

He reckons Ballenden is 10-15 range talent but will be bid on in the 8-12 range as clubs expect Brisbane to match it.
FWIW, he reckons we Fogarty should be pick 1, having an average championship but still expects him to be the best player in the long term.

 

[buttermuffs]

I'd happily put it out there that if a bid came in for Ballenden before pick X that we have no intention to match the bid.

I'd also take 4 picks in to the draft with the intention of using the last two to match a bid on Ballenden. As I have said, and others have speculated, this draft might not go much beyond the third round, so as teams pass, our relegated fourth pick moves to the back of the draft after using it to match a bid on Ballenden (which is currently our 5th round pick, pick 72) keeps moving back up the draft order.

Would the team consider trading a 2018 3rd round pick for a 2017 3rd round pick or late second round pick, purely to accumulate points to match a bid on Ballenden. What value does a 2018 3rd round pick hold compared to a possible 2017 first round talent and academy member. Gold Coast hold 4 second round picks, Hawthorns, Fremantles, their own and Richmonds.

That Richmond pick would certainly be available for the right trade. Currently worth 563 points, add that to our 3rd round pick currently worth 429 points. 992 points matches a bid at pick with some points left over. Or contributes enough points towards pick 8 to carry a 248 point deficit in to the 2018 draft. Not enough to down grade picks 1 or 2, and only down grades picks 3, 4 or 5 back one place.

There is a little wiggle room at the top of the draft to carry a small deficit in from the previous years draft without it moving our pick back. I'd be comfortable carrying a 350 point deficit in to the draft. If we finished last, it doesn't move us out of pick 1. If we finished either 17th or 16th it means we only move back one spot.

Would it be wise to just go after Ballenden and Rayner this year. We get a star player and KPP, and possibly focus on getting picks next year (won't be easy at all, 1 or 2 extra in the first two rounds?). Then next year, in a much stronger draft we can look at getting multiple players in the first two rounds.

 

[Cockliff38]

25 min quarters and he has played about 80% in the forward line.

Ballenden has only looked good the last two games when sent back. Brander's game today was the best game these champs and can see he and Sutherland (if he chooses footy) going top 10. Ballenden would be in the 10-20 range possibly. Sam
Hayes has had a better body of work then Ballenden has over the last few years as well.

10-20 range is what I would've thought too but IMO he certainly goes ahead of Hayes. We have seen ruckman fall and fall on draft day, especially considering you can usually get a decent ruck from the state leagues.

Sure Ballenden has only looked good in the last few games, but those games have been pretty darn impressive and his only opportunities to play back - imo the most impressive of all key backs in the crop. It'll be interesting to see where he plays for the rest of the year. Hopefully Brisbane stick him in the FP in the NEAFL side then develop him as a backman next year.

 

[briztoon]

This draft is so unpredictable. There are players in the top 5 by some judges and outside 20 with others and all sorts of variation in between. One of the draftees still hasn't decided between cricket or footy.

Think the last 2 months of the season will be more important than normal in determining the draft order.

Also no need to be spooked by draft quality. It's the 3rd & 4th round that's a bit meh. We prob don't plan on using a pick after 18. We couldn't be in a better position right now.

I reckon Richmond will be the club into ballenden so hopefully they finish higher than port.

I'm not sure about this. Outside of Sam Hayes, Jarrod Brander and Will Sutherland (if he picks football), I'm not sure if another KPP is worth a top 15 pick. Ballenden looked good today, but really playing back today didn't look anything like an AFL game. He wasn't wrestling a big key forward, spoiling from behind, or using speed to get separation and take an intercept mark. A team would have to rate Ballenden ahead of Balta or Oscar Clavarino, who I believe show more promise as KPD's at AFL level. Or believe he can produce a similar effort as a KPF, and I genuinely question wether Ballenden has the mobility to play as a KPF in todays game.

A team in the second half of this years draft in search of a KPF would be better off trading for Freeman, Hammelmann, Close, or even Josh Walker who are further along in their development and would likely offer more up forward than a 19 year old first year KPF. And then target next years draft as the year to draft a top young KPP.