2017 Draft thread

[jjami15]

For those who are fans of Stephenson don't be surprised if he is a bit of a slider on Draft night, there are those who rise and fall over the duration of the year.

 

[13Beast]

Unless he has a massive game up forward for our NEAFL team before the draft - there's no way he gets a bid in the first 10.

With Schache and Hipwood signed up; there is no pressure on us to take him so clubs can not use that against us.

At this stage, looking pick 10 onwards (obviously the order can change ten fold):

10. West Coast
11. Sydney
12. St. Kilda
13. Richmond
14. Melbourne
15. Brisbane Lions (via Port)
16. Richmond
17. Adelaide
18. Brisbane Lions
19. North
20. Geelong (via Carlton)

Only Richmond need a KPF before our picks and they have 13 and 16 currently.

It'd be nice to be able to use two picks before taking CB...but not a whole lot of difference between 15 & 18.

If Richmond go into the draft with both those first round picks, you can bet your life they will be taking shots at any and all KPFs that are still up. I fully expect a speculative bid by Richmond for Ballenden. I reckon we're going to lose that Port pick of ours

The saving grace may be if Naish's form continues to rise and clubs place bids on him ahead of Richmond's first pick. That means they would have to match with their immediate following pick, correct? Or am I mistaken? Would love for #15 to still be live for us.

Given its a shallow draft, and let's remove Charlie Cameron from the equation for simplicity's sake, what would #15 & #18 packaged together get us in terms of getting a single, higher pick? Any ideas on value and perhaps whom would be willing to trade down to us?

 

[briztoon]

For those who are fans of Stephenson don't be surprised if he is a bit of a slider on Draft night, there are those who rise and fall over the duration of the year.

I'm not that keen on Stephenson, but at this stage I do not see him sliding out of the top 10. However, outside of Rayner, I don't believe any other player has solidified their draft range. Could still see a lot of movement on draft boards with good or indifferent performances over the second half of the season.

 

[jjami15]

If Richmond go into the draft with both those first round picks, you can bet your life they will be taking shots at any and all KPFs that are still up. I fully expect a speculative bid by Richmond for Ballenden. I reckon we're going to lose that Port pick of ours

The saving grace may be if Naish's form continues to rise and clubs place bids on him ahead of Richmond's first pick. That means they would have to match with their immediate following pick, correct? Or am I mistaken? Would love for #15 to still be live for us.

Given its a shallow draft, and let's remove Charlie Cameron from the equation for simplicity's sake, what would #15 & #18 packaged together get us in terms of getting a single, higher pick? Any ideas on value and perhaps whom would be willing to trade down to us?

Western Bulldogs have form in this area. Currently they have pick 8 but it might be too much to give up as it is a top ten pick. If Ports pick ended up just a bit higher it might be more doable. It's along way out but I think that Noble was quite pro-active in putting positive change in the group of recruiters and it might be wise to also back them in a bit. As stated before there will be some sliders on the night, our rating of draftees will be quite different to other clubs especially this year. Two later possible to keep an eye on are Zac Bailey and also Andy Brayshaw. Inside mids, bit of toe and skills are above average.

 

[briztoon]

If Richmond go into the draft with both those first round picks, you can bet your life they will be taking shots at any and all KPFs that are still up. I fully expect a speculative bid by Richmond for Ballenden. I reckon we're going to lose that Port pick of ours

The saving grace may be if Naish's form continues to rise and clubs place bids on him ahead of Richmond's first pick. That means they would have to match with their immediate following pick, correct? Or am I mistaken? Would love for #15 to still be live for us.

Given its a shallow draft, and let's remove Charlie Cameron from the equation for simplicity's sake, what would #15 & #18 packaged together get us in terms of getting a single, higher pick? Any ideas on value and perhaps whom would be willing to trade down to us?

I'm really hoping Sam Hayes slides and is available to Richmond.

Teams have to use their next available pick/s to match bids.

If I was a team in the 8 to 10 range, no way I am giving up that pick for Brisbane's two later picks. Have to factor in pick 18 is not staying at 18. It could realistically be pushed back to pick 22.

 

[M Malice]

If Richmond go into the draft with both those first round picks, you can bet your life they will be taking shots at any and all KPFs that are still up. I fully expect a speculative bid by Richmond for Ballenden. I reckon we're going to lose that Port pick of ours

The saving grace may be if Naish's form continues to rise and clubs place bids on him ahead of Richmond's first pick. That means they would have to match with their immediate following pick, correct? Or am I mistaken? Would love for #15 to still be live for us.

Given its a shallow draft, and let's remove Charlie Cameron from the equation for simplicity's sake, what would #15 & #18 packaged together get us in terms of getting a single, higher pick? Any ideas on value and perhaps whom would be willing to trade down to us?

I know not as simple as this but picks 15&18 equate to 2097 points which is roughly equivalent to pick 4 but no way a team gives up a top 5 pick for 2 in the teens. I would give them both up for pick 8 or under.

 

[jackess]

For those who are fans of Stephenson don't be surprised if he is a bit of a slider on Draft night, there are those who rise and fall over the duration of the year.

I was hoping that both he and Port would slide and we could pick him up with that Port pick. And LDU with our first.

 

[jjami15]

I think that there will be quite a few State players drafted this year so it'll be interesting to see if we head this way. Ian Milera (SANFL) and Liam Ryan (WAFL) are two small forwards that should be looked at and Sambono (NEAFL) as well. Late picks or rookie but I think it is the type of draft to have a shot and see if they develop into something for us as small forwards.

 

[Dalions]

I think that there will be quite a few State players drafted this year so it'll be interesting to see if we head this way. Ian Milera (SANFL) and Liam Ryan (WAFL) are two small forwards that should be looked at and Sambono (NEAFL) as well. Late picks or rookie but I think it is the type of draft to have a shot and see if they develop into something for us as small forwards.

Ryan or Sambono for mine. Well worth a couple of years to see how they develop.

 

[briztoon]

Western Bulldogs have form in this area. Currently they have pick 8 but it might be too much to give up as it is a top ten pick. If Ports pick ended up just a bit higher it might be more doable. It's along way out but I think that Noble was quite pro-active in putting positive change in the group of recruiters and it might be wise to also back them in a bit. As stated before there will be some sliders on the night, our rating of draftees will be quite different to other clubs especially this year. Two later possible to keep an eye on are Zac Bailey and also Andy Brayshaw. Inside mids, bit of toe and skills are above average.

Yup, I am a fan of Brayshaw, could easily see him in picked in the 12 to 15 range. Another in a similar mould is Lachlan Fogarty.

If I remove my anti Vic Metro bias, there are a few smaller inside mids that I would be keen on. I rate Brayshaw and L. Fogarty higher than the likes of Naish and Petruccelle, because I feel the later two are over rated somewhat because of their superior athletic gifts, while not as skilled by foot.

 

[jjami15]

Yup, I am a fan of Brayshaw, could easily see him in picked in the 12 to 15 range. Another in a similar mould is Lachlan Fogarty.

If I remove my anti Vic Metro bias, there are a few smaller inside mids that I would be keen on. I rate Brayshaw and L. Fogarty higher than the likes of Naish and Petruccelle, because I feel the later two are over rated somewhat because of their superior athletic gifts, while not as skilled by foot.

Agree, those can kick will be high on our draft boards. I do like L.Fogarty's willing to tackle already as well.

 

[Eons]

I want a player with x factor.

Would I be right in saying that would be Rayner or Stephenson?

 

[SizeMatters]

Paddy Dow would probably be my pick this year as it is from the footage I've seen. Reminds me a bit of McGrath from the Bombers when in close and in congestion. Always on the move, quick to react, highly competitive, has a great turn of pace and nice lateral movement. Bit of an X-factor feel to him. From Bendigo as well.... ticks all the boxes. Has a game that I think will transition very well to AFL footy. He is slightly built inside mid that wills himself to break through packs... imagine with another 10kgs on his frame? Would easily brush off would be tacklers IMO.

 

[Simba Moyo]

Nice to see Paddy get a bit of recognition for his hard work. There's a bit of a family connection and would love to see him succeed at AFL level

 

[Leuy LongerCombo]

I was thinking about this a lot during last nights game as well.

The thing that stood out to me was we were being smashed at centre bounces by bigger, stronger opponents. It didn't help that both Rocky and Beams were playing with one shoulder/arm each. We really needed another contested mid other than Berry and Mathieson (who should have had much more ground time).

And we needed some one other than Witherden able to provide quality rebound and elite kicking out of the back six.

So for me, I was sitting there thinking we could really have done with LDU and Coffield in last nights team.

As much as we'd like to, we can't cover every need in one draft.


I've been debating with myself who we should consider with pick one; LDU or Rayner.

I do not see Rayner playing meaningful minutes through the midfield in at least his first two seasons. He would certainly provide another target up forward, but we need to sort out our delivery in to the forward 50 first.

I'm happy to wait until 2018 to draft our speed and X factor. Though I understand it's not likely we finish bottom, or possibly even low enough to have a shot at Rankine.

Bit of a late reply, but just been busy with work. Hard to get a fair gauge in terms of Contested and Clearance possession against probably the most mature list in the AFL. They're also very capable of shutting down teams rebound, they done this very effectively against Adelaide with Laird and Smith having little impact.

Im firmly on the Rayner bandwagon at the moment, being where we are on the ladder we need to address our Contested Possession, Disposal Efficiency and speed, and I think he can add something in all those areas. Could also be another long year next year, adding such an exciting prospect along side Hipwood could be good for us supporters.

Long term list view, I agree that we need to add some more contested mids, but I'm happy to try and find these working class types with slightly later picks. We've had reasonable success already with Maitheson, Keays and Berry, we could potentially add to that mix with Ports pick, with selecting Worpel who is commonly tipped to be available there. Historically there seems to be decent Contested mids available in that 5-12 range every year, once we've plugged a few more holes and our first falls in that range, could be the ideal time to swoop.

 

[M Malice]

Knightmare's write up on Connor Ballenden.

http://www.espn.com.au/afl/story/_/...-draft-wrap-brisbane-academy-youngster-excels

 

[Eons]

Knightmare's write up on Connor Ballenden.

http://www.espn.com.au/afl/story/_/...-draft-wrap-brisbane-academy-youngster-excels

Time to trade Ports pick to GWS for Hopper, pick 18 for Cameron.

 

[SizeMatters]

I'm warming to this Hopper talk.

 

[WhiteLionFeva]

I think there is a tendency for people to forget that Ballenden came into footy relatively late. For him, perhaps more than for most other 18 year olds, it's less about where he is now and more about where he will be in 2/3 years time. The late form in defence shows he is still developing and learning the game. There are already enough of those glimpses to get recruiters excited. If a bid comes at pick 10 or later I would be very surprised if we didn't match it.

 

[jackess]

I think there is a tendency for people to forget that Ballenden came into footy relatively late. For him, perhaps more than for most other 18 year olds, it's less about where he is now and more about where he will be in 2/3 years time. The late form in defence shows he is still developing and learning the game. There are already enough of those glimpses to get recruiters excited. If a bid comes at pick 10 or later I would be very surprised if we didn't match it.

He has had 6 years in our academy. It's not like he started playing 2 or 3 years ago.

 

[WhiteLionFeva]

Am I right in thinking that if you have points over after matching a bid you lose them? e.g. if there was bid on Ballenden at 12 (1014 pts after our discount), we would use pick 15 to match and have 102 points over. They don't get added to our next pick?

 

[Dalions]

Am I right in thinking that if you have points over after matching a bid you lose them? e.g. if there was bid on Ballenden at 12 (1014 pts after our discount), we would use pick 15 to match and have 102 points over. They don't get added to our next pick?

That pick then goes back to the spot equivalent to that amount of points.
Pick 64 is worth 101 points

 

[Hollow Knight]

That pick then goes back to the spot equivalent to that amount of points.
Havent got the point scale in front of me. But maybe around pick 60

Very close guess. 64.

http://www.afl.com.au/staticfile/AFL Tenant/AFL/Files/biddingsystemfeedback.pdf

EDIT: Damn, beaten by the ninja edit.

 

[Leuy LongerCombo]

Am I right in thinking that if you have points over after matching a bid you lose them? e.g. if there was bid on Ballenden at 12 (1014 pts after our discount), we would use pick 15 to match and have 102 points over. They don't get added to our next pick?

My understanding is that's correct, however the 102 points can be deducted off another Academy/Father Son.

Reasonably sure theres two different classification thou, first round picks you forfeit the pick and only get credits. Into the second round you can downgrade picks, like Dlions example, where the pick doesn't go to the back of the draft but inserted at the remaining value.

 

[Hollow Knight]

I'm not sure it would be mathematically possible to match a bid in the first round and still have enough leftover points for it to generate a lower first rounder anyway.