2017 Draft thread

[Dalions]

Very close guess. 64.

http://www.afl.com.au/staticfile/AFL Tenant/AFL/Files/biddingsystemfeedback.pdf

EDIT: Damn, beaten by the ninja edit.

Just edited. Thanks

 

[Leuy LongerCombo]

I'm not sure it would be mathematically possible to match a bid in the first round and still have enough leftover points for it to generate a lower first rounder anyway.

In the example the AFL started with they used Moore as an example, Bulldogs bid with pick 5 forcing Collingwood to match with pick 6, the discount generate 249 points, which ultimately they forfeited in the example.

With the lowered discount now thou, might make it impossible

 

[Fatcat08]

My understanding is that's correct, however the 102 points can be deducted off another Academy/Father Son.

Reasonably sure theres two different classification thou, first round picks you forfeit the pick and only get credits. Into the second round you can downgrade picks, like Dlions example, where the pick doesn't go to the back of the draft but inserted at the remaining value.

Close, if you match with a single first round pick and there are points left over those points sit in a "bank account" of sorts, to be used either in the current year, or can be carried over to the next. If you match with multiple picks then the second pick gets pushed back.

 

[Fatcat08]

Watched a couple of highlight videos to get a small feel for the players. I liked LDU, seems really strong over the ball already. Rayner i'm unsure of. Wasn't enamoured with Cerra at all. Rankine next year looks exciting, but geez he needs to work on his handballs. In close quick hands he's alright but he doesn't have get much power into anything longer distance than that, and lacks much feel for where he needs to place the ball. Tends to handball to where the player is, not where he's going or should be and as a result it holds up play a lot. Think some of it is him trying to do too much and he uses the handball as an option of last resort, rather than a weapon. This tends to result in him handballing off balance without much base with which to generate power and direction. Just an observation I had while watching him. No doubt he's got some exciting attributes though, genuine ankle breaker on those changes of direction. Would no doubt be a real POD in our midfield.

 

[jackess]

Close, if you match with a single first round pick and there are points left over those points sit in a "bank account" of sorts, to be used either in the current year, or can be carried over to the next. If you match with multiple picks then the second pick gets pushed back.

So you have a credit in your points account when matching another bid?

 

[Leuy LongerCombo]

Close, if you match with a single first round pick and there are points left over those points sit in a "bank account" of sorts, to be used either in the current year, or can be carried over to the next. If you match with multiple picks then the second pick gets pushed back.

Knew it was a singular pick but didn't clarify that, didn't know that the balance can be brought forward thou.

 

[Fatcat08]

So you have a credit in your points account when matching another bid?

that is my understanding yes

 

[WhiteLionFeva]

that is my understanding yes

Sorry if this is going beyond your wisdom on the subject but let's say Ballenden gets bid at pick 12. With the 20% discount that equates to 1014 pts. Our pick 15 is 1112 pts, so to match the bid we would use pick 15 and have 102 pts left over. Leaving other possible shuffling of bids to one side, does that mean we can use the 102 pts to gain pick 64? I'm also assuming here that we couldn't add the points to an existing pick to boost that pick.

 

[Leuy LongerCombo]

Sorry if this is going beyond your wisdom on the subject but let's say Ballenden gets bid at pick 12. With the 20% discount that equates to 1014 pts. Our pick 15 is 1112 pts, so to match the bid we would use pick 15 and have 102 pts left over. Leaving other possible shuffling of bids to one side, does that mean we can use the 102 pts to gain pick 64? I'm also assuming here that we couldn't add the points to an existing pick to boost that pick.

Being a first round bid and matching with a singular pick, we only get credits towards another bid. It cant be cashed in for a later pick or used to upgrade.

 

[Len S]

Eed to use QUOTE="SizeMatters, post: 51276699, member: 135369"]I recall you watch a lot of U18 champs and TAC cup Len. Who in your opinion you think will go pick 1? Could there be a smokie?[/QUOTE]
Thanks S and M ! I tend to hedge bets until the TAC finals, you may recall Sandringham kids were coming from everywhere at that point last year.Also,the trade situation is volatile, especially with Kelly,and GWS,and Gold Coast, who have a history of trading for picks.There are by the way,a couple of interesting picks i both the WAFL and SAFL, which may come into play,even late in the first round,that would help our plans, regarding how we use our second and third.I dont think our people on this board have missed anyone. I would like to see more of Zac Bailey, he really grew and was inspirational against Metro,in a similar way to McGrath last year.I am just wary of one paced midfielders, and there seem to be plenty! I think thats partly why the skilled and running Metro backline are getting mentioned...Constable, for example.I think our recruiting team will thoroughly check out Rayner, beforehand, and I know Leon Harris is a big fan of Paddy.Its all a bit ambiguous at present. Keep in touch mate! By theway,the Club hosts a great draft night in Melbourne, with recruitment team present to comment.

I recall you watch a lot of U18 champs and TAC cup Len. Who in your opinion you think will go pick 1? Could there be a smokie?

 

[SizeMatters]

Eed to use QUOTE="SizeMatters, post: 51276699, member: 135369"]I recall you watch a lot of U18 champs and TAC cup Len. Who in your opinion you think will go pick 1? Could there be a smokie?

I only saw the final Allies game but Bailey really impressed me. Has a good turn of pace, wins the hard ball and can generally hit targets by foot and hand. Rayner is an interesting one, with some suggestions he doesn't work hard enough. I have never met him personally but he seems a level headed bloke. I'm sure a professional environment will keep him on the right track. Has a lot of talent but also backs it up with almost a bit of arrogance which is something I like in a potential game winner. He's got to be the favourite for pick 1, although personally I think Dow will be the smokie much like Berry was last season. I generally start to take more notice of draftees during the final TAC cup games and finals. It's so even within the top 10 picks this year so should be an exciting finish to the year.

 

[briztoon]

Sorry if this is going beyond your wisdom on the subject but let's say Ballenden gets bid at pick 12. With the 20% discount that equates to 1014 pts. Our pick 15 is 1112 pts, so to match the bid we would use pick 15 and have 102 pts left over. Leaving other possible shuffling of bids to one side, does that mean we can use the 102 pts to gain pick 64? I'm also assuming here that we couldn't add the points to an existing pick to boost that pick.

Being a first round bid and matching with a singular pick, we only get credits towards another bid. It cant be cashed in for a later pick or used to upgrade.

This is correct. Bids made in the first round, which are matched with another first round pick, we "bank" any points left over to be used on any other possible academy bids.

Any bids in the second round and on, that generate left over points, the points slot in where their value dictates.

 

[trikster]

Knightmare's write up on Connor Ballenden.

http://www.espn.com.au/afl/story/_/...-draft-wrap-brisbane-academy-youngster-excels

Knightmare has always loved Ballenden a little more than everyone else (which is fine, just his opinion).

I can't see Ballenden playing down back, he doesn't have the speed or agility. Even when playing forward he is more the old style lead in a straight line. Everything he says in that article just confirms to me how damaging who could one day be as a ruck/forward if he can master the ruck skills. His around the ground marks, kicking, etc is already there. Think Stef Martin but superior around the ground skills and a genuine forward option.

 

[DanT7]

Need to draft quickest half back defender possible

 

[briztoon]

Need to draft quickest half back defender possible

Not the fastest, but the best in this crop, Nick Coffield.

 

[cotter101]

Knightmare has always loved Ballenden a little more than everyone else (which is fine, just his opinion).

I can't see Ballenden playing down back, he doesn't have the speed or agility. Even when playing forward he is more the old style lead in a straight line. Everything he says in that article just confirms to me how damaging who could one day be as a ruck/forward if he can master the ruck skills. His around the ground marks, kicking, etc is already there. Think Stef Martin but superior around the ground skills and a genuine forward option.

Knightmare rates any academy player higher than the respective clubs do themselves.


Paddy Dow = Pick 1. Coffield to go top 5.

 

[Len S]

Knightmare has always loved Ballenden a little more than everyone else (which is fine, just his opinion).

I can't see Ballenden playing down back, he doesn't have the speed or agility. Even when playing forward he is more the old style lead in a straight line. Everything he says in that article just confirms to me how damaging who could one day be as a ruck/forward if he can master the ruck skills. His around the ground marks, kicking, etc is already there. Think Stef Martin but superior around the ground skills and a genuine forward option.

He is more mobile than Brian Lake,and Lonergan.His final position, or positions, is a work in progress.

 

[13Beast]

He is more mobile than Brian Lake,and Lonergan.His final position, or positions, is a work in progress.

Big, mobile, great hands and a genuinely elite kick. Brace yourselves Lions fans, expecting to have a bunch of live picks prior to having to match picks on Balllenden.... draft night could get messy.

 

[Nunez]

He is more mobile than Brian Lake,and Lonergan.His final position, or positions, is a work in progress.

I remember Hipwoods position being a work in progress and Andrews being a project forward.

I love academy talls!

 

[Leuy LongerCombo]

Knightmare rates any academy player higher than the respective clubs do themselves.


Paddy Dow = Pick 1. Coffield to go top 5.

Always like to hear you thoughts mate, have you been able put together an early top 10 and willing to share it ?

On Ballenden, do you share the concerns about his athleticism and movement to make it as a defender at the higher level. Where would you have him falling in the draft at the moment?

 

[cotter101]

Always like to hear you thoughts mate, have you been able put together an early top 10 and willing to share it ?

On Ballenden, do you share the concerns about his athleticism and movement to make it as a defender at the higher level. Where would you have him falling in the draft at the moment?

I've decided against a mock draft this year. But still always happy to provide thoughts and answer any questions.

My top 10 would be:

1. Paddy Dow.
2. Cameron Rayner
3. Adam Cerra
4. Jaidyn Stephenson
5. Nicholas Coffield
6. LDU
7. Joel Garner
8. Jarrod Brander
9. Charlie Constable
10. Darcy Fogarty

On Ballenden, he did impress me as a defender. I don't believe he's athleticism will cause him too many problems at the higher level. I've got him between 20-35.

 

[Leuy LongerCombo]

I've decided against a mock draft this year. But still always happy to provide thoughts and answer any questions.

My top 10 would be:

1. Paddy Dow.
2. Cameron Rayner
3. Adam Cerra
4. Jaidyn Stephenson
5. Nicholas Coffield
6. LDU
7. Joel Garner
8. Jarrod Brander
9. Charlie Constable
10. Darcy Fogarty

On Ballenden, he did impress me as a defender. I don't believe he's athleticism will cause him too many problems at the higher level. I've got him between 20-35.

Cheers mate, see that Dow has been starting to get some decent recognition lately, reads as a great prospect and someone that could interest us.

I like the LDU rating, I see a lot of discussion on this thread as a possible selection for us, but I think our likely pick is a little too early for him.

 

[Kevvo]

I've decided against a mock draft this year. But still always happy to provide thoughts and answer any questions.

My top 10 would be:

1. Paddy Dow.
2. Cameron Rayner
3. Adam Cerra
4. Jaidyn Stephenson
5. Nicholas Coffield
6. LDU
7. Joel Garner
8. Jarrod Brander
9. Charlie Constable
10. Darcy Fogarty

On Ballenden, he did impress me as a defender. I don't believe he's athleticism will cause him too many problems at the higher level. I've got him between 20-35.

Thanks Cotter. If you can be bothered, I'd be interested to hear a bit more about your thoughts on Dow.

I only watched bits and pieces of the champs, but the impression I get is that a lot of seasoned watchers were fairly disappointed with the standard. Intuitively, I'd expect that the near consensus top 2 (Rayner and LDU) aren't as fixed up at the top as they might've been in a different year. I can imagine a scenario where a new contender emerges late.

 

[SizeMatters]

Dow is the one I hope builds into a legitimate top pick. Ticks all the boxes just needs a bit more consistency and to get a bit more of the ball. Just love the way he attacks the contest and is quick to react albeit his disposals are a bit scrappy at times.

 

[Cockliff38]

Dow looks quite agricultural with his disposal but typically gets the right result, although I would say his kicks are quite loopy. Hopefully he can flatten them out with a bit of work. Besides Rayner he appears the best 1v1 player in this crop and his work at stoppages is terrific. I love how he's always on the move at a stoppage and hits the ball at speed. And then when he wins possession he has that Dangerfield-like burst to get away.

LDU is more of a bull but he just looks like he will slot in seamlessly at AFL level. His decision-making and vision are excellent, and he probably uses the ball better than Dow (although neither are perfect). Additionally, he uses both sides of his body to good effect and his non-preferred looks very natural. While LDU does have a similar ability to burst away from stoppage Dow's probably quicker (at least on the eye test). Other areas LDU takes the points are: marking overhead, versatility & class. He obviously struggled for consistency throughout the champs but he still averaged 22D compared to Dow's <20.

If I was picking I'd go LDU but would be happy with either at no. 1.