2017 Draft thread

[Comeback Lions]

Also on draft central, (No I'm not on their payroll) Balmer's September power rankings now have Ballenden at 23, falling 2 places from 21. Would be great if we managed to get in 3 selections, before having to match a bid.

 

[Nunez]

Also on draft central, (No I'm not on their payroll) Balmer's September power rankings now have Ballenden at 23, falling 2 places from 21. Would be great if we managed to get in 3 selections, before having to match a bid.

I think KM is more on the money and an early bid is more and more likely. I hope it isn't so

 

[briztoon]

I think KM is more on the money and an early bid is more and more likely. I hope it isn't so

I like reading Knightmare, but I seriously disagree with some of his stuff. He's deadset sold on Ballenden being the number one KPD in the draft after watching him in the U18 champs.

 

[Nunez]

I like reading Knightmare, but I seriously disagree with some of his stuff. He's deadset sold on Ballenden being the number one KPD in the draft after watching him in the U18 champs.

Honestly it wouldn't surprise me if he is, but think his potential is higher up forward.

 

[briztoon]

From AFL Draft Central. Higgins is now perhaps more likely to go top 10 with this gong?

OAKLEIGH Chargers midfielder Jack Higgins has won the prestigious Morrish Medal for the best and fairest player of the 2017 TAC Cup home-and-away season. Previous winners of the Morrish Medal include top-five NAB AFL Draft picks Clayton Oliver (2015) and Hugh McCluggage (2016).
Higgins ran out as the winner with 22 votes at tonight’s TAC Cup vote count. Coming into the final round this weekend, Higgins averaged 24 disposals, six tackles, five marks and had booted 27 goals in 12 games.

In recent weeks, Higgins has transitioned from an inside ball winning midfielder to a small forward – with big success, booting seven goals from 13 disposals against the Bendigo Pioneers in Round 17. The AFL Academy and Vic Metro member has had a fantastic year and may find himself a top 10 selection on draft night. The Vic Metro MVP averaged 27 disposals, six tackles, six marks and five clearances throughout the NAB AFL Under 18 Championships in his top-age year. Higgins has been invited to the National combine.

I don't put to much emphasis on Higgins winning the Morrish Medal.

A vast majority of the top players played school footy this year, so Higgins didn't have a lot of serious competition.

I'm not knocking Higgins. He gets the maximum out of his talent and athletic abilities. He's professional. But he has limited upside for mine.

 

[Nunez]

I don't put to much emphasis on Higgins winning the Morrish Medal.

A vast majority of the top players played school footy this year, so Higgins didn't have a lot of serious competition.

I'm not knocking Higgins. He gets the maximum out of his talent and athletic abilities. He's professional. But he has limited upside for mine.

Add 10 cm to his height and he's a top 10 pick. Unfortunately he is very short and is limited. Will go top 40 but doubt he'll be in the top 20.

 

[Panthera]

I think KM is more on the money and an early bid is more and more likely. I hope it isn't so

Won't be prior to the Port pick and I don't feel we'll have 18 if Cameron is in the frame.

An interesting trade week as always for us

 

[Nunez]

Won't be prior to the Port pick and I don't feel we'll have 18 if Cameron is in the frame.

An interesting trade week as always for us

Fingers crossed it is after the port pick!

 

[Billy Puller]

Knightmare had Matt Hammelman at 19 and Conway and Tickner very high too. Keays he had very high as well. Only bloke he's gotten on the money is Hipwood.

He might know the Victorian talent but when it comes to the academy guys he knows sweet **** all and always tends to pump them up and stir up the anti-academy hysteria on this forum

 

[Billy Puller]

Didn't rate Harris Andrews at all, only person who got into him was Paige Cardona.

 

[a mayes ing]

Won't be prior to the Port pick and I don't feel we'll have 18 if Cameron is in the frame.

An interesting trade week as always for us

Richmond is our main stumbling block. Can see them choosing ballenden

 

[Nunez]

Richmond is our main stumbling block. Can see them choosing ballenden

I've heard from more than just KM that the Pies are seriously considering Ballenden.

 

[jackess]

I've heard from more than just KM that the Pies are seriously considering Ballenden.

Not sure he'll last to their third rounder (formerly our pick).

 

[Nunez]

Not sure he'll last to their third rounder (formerly our pick).

As in their first pick. I thought that much was obvious.

 

[jackess]

As in their first pick. I thought that much was obvious.

 

[Brett C]

As in their first pick. I thought that much was obvious.

Have only seen a little bit of Ballenden but do you think he is worth pick 6? Seems to have gone a little backards this year.

 

[Cockliff38]

I'd love Higgins with 15/18 but he might be off the board by then. Long way to go

 

[Forward We Go]

Knightmare had Matt Hammelman at 19 and Conway and Tickner very high too. Keays he had very high as well. Only bloke he's gotten on the money is Hipwood.

He might know the Victorian talent but when it comes to the academy guys he knows sweet **** all and always tends to pump them up and stir up the anti-academy hysteria on this forum

Think KM is one of the better judges when it comes to where they fall in the draft. (even academy players) Also think you are being strangely paranoid with his views being "stirring up academy hysteria". Ballenden is by far the best key position draftee (forward, defender, ruckman). He is versatile and is in a draft where the first round selections are mostly mids. Big guys like him are rare as hens teeth this draft and all clubs will show interest if needing a tall. The other guys you mentioned above were all showing good form coming into the draft but for whatever reason, most of the "experts" got some predictions wrong. (including KM) Nobody has a crystal ball to be on the money every time. (unless you have one Billy....crystal that is. lol)

 

[Hollow Knight]

Knightmare does a mountain of work but undoubtedly has a pretty established record of overrating academy prospects. It's happened way too often to be a mere statistical margin-of-error thing. Billy is far from the only person to notice.

 

[cotter101]

I've heard from more than just KM that the Pies are seriously considering Ballenden.

I think it's pretty clear I wasn't a big fan of him as a forward from what I had seen but as a defender, he showed a lot I felt. Had he done that over the entire year he'd comfortably be talked about as a top 10 pick in this years draft. However he done it for a couple of games. The games the have more swaying power too.

The differential rating between clubs regarding Ballenden is surprising. Some rate him very high, others not so high.

 

[Cockliff38]

Knightmare's track record when it comes to rating academy players
2016

• Setterfield rated third overall - bid matched at pick 5
• Bowes rated sixth overall - bid matched at pick 10
• Perryman rated seventh overall - bid matched at pick 14
• Scheer rated 16th overall - bid matched at pick 67
• Mutch rated 18th overall - picked at 42
• Tiziani rated 21st overall - bid matched at pick 54
• Garthwaite rated 28th overall - picked at 72
• Watson rated 29th overall - picked at 34

2015

• Hopper rated first overall - bid matched at pick 7
• Mills rated fourth overall - bid matched at pick 3
• Keays rated fifth overall - bid matched at pick 24
• Kennedy rated sixth overall - bid matched at pick 13
• Hipwood rated eighth overall - bid matched at pick 14
• Himmelberg rated 20th overall - bid matched at pick 16
• Wagner rated 36th overall - picked at 42
• Coughlan rated 40th overall - rookie drafted

Just two examples over the past two years where a player has gone earlier than he has rated them - Mills was a pick later and Himmelberg just four spots higher.

 

[POBT]

Knightmare's track record when it comes to rating academy players
2016

• Setterfield rated third overall - bid matched at pick 5
• Bowes rated sixth overall - bid matched at pick 10
• Perryman rated seventh overall - bid matched at pick 14
• Scheer rated 16th overall - bid matched at pick 67
• Mutch rated 18th overall - picked at 42
• Tiziani rated 21st overall - bid matched at pick 54
• Garthwaite rated 28th overall - picked at 72
• Watson rated 29th overall - picked at 34

2015

• Hopper rated first overall - bid matched at pick 7
• Mills rated fourth overall - bid matched at pick 3
• Keays rated fifth overall - bid matched at pick 24
• Kennedy rated sixth overall - bid matched at pick 13
• Hipwood rated eighth overall - bid matched at pick 14
• Himmelberg rated 20th overall - bid matched at pick 16
• Wagner rated 36th overall - picked at 42
• Coughlan rated 40th overall - rookie drafted

Just two examples over the past two years where a player has gone earlier than he has rated them - Mills was a pick later and Himmelberg just four spots higher.

Wow. I knew that there was a trend but that's pretty stark.

 

[jackess]

I worry about Ballenden's agility to play anywhere other than deep forward/second ruck and the likelihood that he would be able to perform that role more than adequately at AFL level.

Assuming the style of footy doesn't change too much he could definitely slot into a forward line with Schache, Hipwood and some smalls and rotate into the ruck. Best case scenario he ends up like Ben Brown.

 

[Cockliff38]

Wow. I knew that there was a trend but that's pretty stark.

I love KM's work and reading his profiles and it's easy to call someone out with the benefit of hindsight but it's hard to argue against a pretty clear agenda

 

[POBT]

I love KM's work and reading his profiles and it's easy to call someone out with the benefit of hindsight but it's hard to argue against a pretty clear agenda

I'm not sure it is necesssarily an agenda but it has probably gone beyond a coincidence. FWIW, pretty much all the draft experts on that board demonstrate bias to some extent. You see it when they do their phantom drafts and quality/favoured players are amazingly available at their club's picks. Again, doubt it is deliberate but they are all footy fans first and foremost rather than dispassionate recruiters.

The draft watchers I've got the most time for are the ones who stick to their knitting and only profess their expertise in areas where they have actual knowledge. I tend to tune out to the ones who express authoratitive views on every junior comp in every state, plus all the mature prospects in the state leagues, plus the trade options at senior level, plus the list needs of 18 clubs and so on. No one can be across all of that, let alone a part time amateur.

And given I'm mid rant, I also don't get fairly knowledgeable supporters of clubs asking draft watchers "who should my club take at pick X?" List needs of 18 clubs isn't something that a draft watcher has any more expertise in than most of us. Different story asking "we need an inside mid, who are the ones likely to be available at pick x". But these guys aren't (and mostly don't profess to be) omniscient about every aspect of list management. Collectively on this board, we know more about our list than pretty much anyone else on the site.