2017 Draft thread

[Berrygood]

From AFL Draft Central. Higgins is now perhaps more likely to go top 10 with this gong?

OAKLEIGH Chargers midfielder Jack Higgins has won the prestigious Morrish Medal for the best and fairest player of the 2017 TAC Cup home-and-away season. Previous winners of the Morrish Medal include top-five NAB AFL Draft picks Clayton Oliver (2015) and Hugh McCluggage (2016).
Higgins ran out as the winner with 22 votes at tonight’s TAC Cup vote count. Coming into the final round this weekend, Higgins averaged 24 disposals, six tackles, five marks and had booted 27 goals in 12 games.

In recent weeks, Higgins has transitioned from an inside ball winning midfielder to a small forward – with big success, booting seven goals from 13 disposals against the Bendigo Pioneers in Round 17. The AFL Academy and Vic Metro member has had a fantastic year and may find himself a top 10 selection on draft night. The Vic Metro MVP averaged 27 disposals, six tackles, six marks and five clearances throughout the NAB AFL Under 18 Championships in his top-age year. Higgins has been invited to the National combine.

Fagan has said that he is after a hybrid midfielder. Higgins fits the criteria, ballwinning inside mid, goalkicking small forward and tackles. Just what we need. Id be more than happy to take higgins with our first pick.

 

[cotter101]

Fagan has said that he is after a hybrid midfielder. Higgins fits the criteria, ballwinning inside mid, goalkicking small forward and tackles. Just what we need. Id be more than happy to take higgins with our first pick.

I wouldn't be taking him at #1.

 

[spotthedog1]

KM was also fairly vocal a few years back that he thinks that the academies are vastly unjust and shouldn't exist, so he has form there.

Most draft analysts I've seen also pretty clearly have Sam Hayes ahead of Ballenden as far as talls go. KM is probably the only one that doesn't.

Realistically, based on the last few years, clubs tend to bid late on academy prospects, not early. Jack Bowes last year a perfect example. Most people thought he was a top 6 player, slid to 10. Few possible reasons come into play here... And this is just my speculation, but I can see these as reasons for a club not to bid on a player, and apart from making another club pay more, I can't see a lot of upside:
- they know they won't get them, so they don't think about them as much
- it's a risk to draft a player that already has ties to another club
- it's better to sell to your supporters that you got your first choice player (hard to say "we really rated X and were surprised that he was on the board at 17... But we bid on Ballenden first anyway...)
- This is also true of the player. Hard to say "we really wanted you, but only as our backup option of Brisbane matched on X".
- Also you don't want to devalue your picks - better to sell to supporters that "X is really good - we selected him at 14" is better than 15. Pushing back your picks just looks that little bit worse - less so in the 20s and 30s, but look at Bowes last year... Pushing back pick 5 to 6 is a big drop just to make another team pay more.

That said, we all know how much the draft boards move in the month leading up to the draft... Which I always find odd and hilarious given that no games are played, but for some reason, players still move quite a bit. So whether Ballenden ends up as a consensus 5 or 35 - who knows.

 

[SizeMatters]

Still think it will either be Rayner or Dow at our first.
If we still have pick 14 I reckon it could be either Higgins, Clark or even a smokie in Murphy who I think has been under rated and will rise up the draft boards. Admittedly though I haven't seen one second of Murphy but only going from someone who does and they rate him highly.

 

[Leuy LongerCombo]

Knightmare's track record when it comes to rating academy players
2016

• Setterfield rated third overall - bid matched at pick 5
• Bowes rated sixth overall - bid matched at pick 10
• Perryman rated seventh overall - bid matched at pick 14
• Scheer rated 16th overall - bid matched at pick 67
• Mutch rated 18th overall - picked at 42
• Tiziani rated 21st overall - bid matched at pick 54
• Garthwaite rated 28th overall - picked at 72
• Watson rated 29th overall - picked at 34

2015

• Hopper rated first overall - bid matched at pick 7
• Mills rated fourth overall - bid matched at pick 3
• Keays rated fifth overall - bid matched at pick 24
• Kennedy rated sixth overall - bid matched at pick 13
• Hipwood rated eighth overall - bid matched at pick 14
• Himmelberg rated 20th overall - bid matched at pick 16
• Wagner rated 36th overall - picked at 42
• Coughlan rated 40th overall - rookie drafted

Just two examples over the past two years where a player has gone earlier than he has rated them - Mills was a pick later and Himmelberg just four spots higher.

No doubting the amount of work he puts in, I regularly read through his thread but there is a clear trend with academy prospects. Can remember in 2015 where he compared Keays to Petrecca

 

[Forward We Go]

Knightmare does a mountain of work but undoubtedly has a pretty established record of overrating academy prospects. It's happened way too often to be a mere statistical margin-of-error thing. Billy is far from the only person to notice.

He (in fact) under rated Hipwood didn't he? If you had the 2015 draft again, would Hippy be nominated at 14?

 

[Forward We Go]

Still think it will either be Rayner or Dow at our first.
If we still have pick 14 I reckon it could be either Higgins, Clark or even a smokie in Murphy who I think has been under rated and will rise up the draft boards. Admittedly though I haven't seen one second of Murphy but only going from someone who does and they rate him highly.

Rayner has said a couple of things in the media related to moving interstate that smell's a little. My $ is on Dow.

 

[Forward We Go]

No doubting the amount of work he puts in, I regularly read through his thread but there is a clear trend with academy prospects. Can remember in 2015 where he compared Keays to Petrecca

At the start o to 2015 draft season, Keays was touted as a top 10 pick after his outstanding 2014 year. He starred in the U18's Carnival and was picked as All Australian as an underager that same year. Think Keays will come good over the next few years and we will all see why he was considered so high in that draft at that time.

 

[Billy Puller]

Thanks guys for proving I'm not paranoid when it comes to KM

 

[WhiteLionFeva]

- This is also true of the player. Hard to say "we really wanted you, but only as our backup option of Brisbane matched on X".
- Also you don't want to devalue your picks - better to sell to supporters that "X is really good - we selected him at 14" is better than 15. Pushing back your picks just looks that little bit worse - less so in the 20s and 30s, but look at Bowes last year... Pushing back pick 5 to 6 is a big drop just to make another team pay more.

I don't follow. Why is it any drop at all? It's not as if another club gets ahead of you. If you mean perception, does anyone really care if 5 becomes 6?

 

[scott_the_man]

He (in fact) under rated Hipwood didn't he? If you had the 2015 draft again, would Hippy be nominated at 14?

Hippy would go top 5 if the draft was redone. Possibly even top 2. Absolute steal

 

[winged1]

I don't follow. Why is it any drop at all? It's not as if another club gets ahead of you. If you mean perception, does anyone really care if 5 becomes 6?

Because that player will always been known as there second choice. Eg

"Adam Cerra taken by Collingwood after they bid on Connor Ballenden but the bid was matched by Brisbane."

Would be the start of every article. Would be like your wife knowing she was your second choice.

 

[WhiteLionFeva]

Because that player will always been known as there second choice. Eg

"Adam Cerra taken by Collingwood after they bid on Connor Ballenden but the bid was matched by Brisbane."

Would be the start of every article. Would be like your wife knowing she was your second choice.

Better than placing third.

 

[blynd_freddie]

I wouldn't be taking him at #1.

Why?

Is taller than both Dayne Zorko & Brent Harvey - another 'drafting oversight'?

 

[WhiteLionFeva]

Because that player will always been known as there second choice. Eg

"Adam Cerra taken by Collingwood after they bid on Connor Ballenden but the bid was matched by Brisbane."

Would be the start of every article. Would be like your wife knowing she was your second choice.

Didn't Carlton bid on Setterfield last year at 5 and end up taking Petrevski-Seton at 6. Don't recall too much press about that.

 

[WhiteLionFeva]

Why?

Is taller than both Dayne Zorko & Brent Harvey - another 'drafting oversight'?

They are both blessed with pace which unfortunately Jack isn't. While he gets his fair share of contested possessions, there is a view he doesn't do a lot with them. A lot of short or lateral kicks. That doesn't worry me as much as the pace issue. Still, the same criticisms have been directed at Rocky and he goes alright.

 

[WhiteLionFeva]

Fagan has said that he is after a hybrid midfielder. Higgins fits the criteria, ballwinning inside mid, goalkicking small forward and tackles. Just what we need. Id be more than happy to take higgins with our first pick.

I think by hybrid Fagan meant a mixture of inside grunt and outside pace.

 

[blynd_freddie]

They are both blessed with pace which unfortunately Jack isn't. While he gets his fair share of contested possessions, there is a view he doesn't do a lot with them. A lot of short or lateral kicks. That doesn't worry me as much as the pace issue. Still, the same criticisms have been directed at Rocky and he goes alright.

Yep, combine numbers linked to speed/agility will be interesting.

 

[Comeback Lions]

Fagan has said that he is after a hybrid midfielder. Higgins fits the criteria, ballwinning inside mid, goalkicking small forward and tackles. Just what we need. Id be more than happy to take higgins with our first pick.

I like Higgins too, but I think his lack of blistering pace, as WhiteLionFeva suggests, will stop us taking him at 1. Reckon he would be a great get at 12, though I doubt he'll still be available then, as the last two Morrish medal winners have gone top 4. Oakleigh should go deep into the finals so it will be interesting to see how he goes as both a midfielder and forward against the other top sides.

 

[cotter101]

Why?

Is taller than both Dayne Zorko & Brent Harvey - another 'drafting oversight'?

I don't rate him as high as I do Rayner and Dow. He's pretty slow for a shorter player but does have a well rounded game. Lacks star power for mine.

 

[briztoon]

Knightmare's track record when it comes to rating academy players
2016

• Setterfield rated third overall - bid matched at pick 5
• Bowes rated sixth overall - bid matched at pick 10
• Perryman rated seventh overall - bid matched at pick 14
• Scheer rated 16th overall - bid matched at pick 67
• Mutch rated 18th overall - picked at 42
• Tiziani rated 21st overall - bid matched at pick 54
• Garthwaite rated 28th overall - picked at 72
• Watson rated 29th overall - picked at 34

2015

• Hopper rated first overall - bid matched at pick 7
• Mills rated fourth overall - bid matched at pick 3
• Keays rated fifth overall - bid matched at pick 24
• Kennedy rated sixth overall - bid matched at pick 13
• Hipwood rated eighth overall - bid matched at pick 14
• Himmelberg rated 20th overall - bid matched at pick 16
• Wagner rated 36th overall - picked at 42
• Coughlan rated 40th overall - rookie drafted

Just two examples over the past two years where a player has gone earlier than he has rated them - Mills was a pick later and Himmelberg just four spots higher.

Honestly I can not be arsed to go back and search through KM's draft rankings from 2015. But I clearly remember KM saying Hipwood would be bid on before Keays. And that he had Hipwood drafted in the 10 to 15 range.


Also, very few draft watchers put up mock drafts before a few weeks out. Most have a running big board. top 20, top 25, top 30, etc which they update weekly or monthly.

Most only attempt a serious mock draft after the trade period and AFL Draft Combine. The professionals such as Cal Twomey, Emma Quayle, etc usually on put out their phantom drafts the day before the draft or the morning of the draft after they have talked to as many of their club contacts as possible.

I can't remember a single final phantom draft from last year that had Jarrod Berry falling to the Lions pick 16, or Witherden falling to our early second round picks.

This years draft is likely to be one of the most unpredictable with so many of kids coming back from multiple knee or shoulder surgeries to play this year, or to have performed poorly and missed the end of the year due to injury.

 

[briztoon]

I'm not sure it is necesssarily an agenda but it has probably gone beyond a coincidence. FWIW, pretty much all the draft experts on that board demonstrate bias to some extent. You see it when they do their phantom drafts and quality/favoured players are amazingly available at their club's picks. Again, doubt it is deliberate but they are all footy fans first and foremost rather than dispassionate recruiters.

The draft watchers I've got the most time for are the ones who stick to their knitting and only profess their expertise in areas where they have actual knowledge. I tend to tune out to the ones who express authoratitive views on every junior comp in every state, plus all the mature prospects in the state leagues, plus the trade options at senior level, plus the list needs of 18 clubs and so on. No one can be across all of that, let alone a part time amateur.

And given I'm mid rant, I also don't get fairly knowledgeable supporters of clubs asking draft watchers "who should my club take at pick X?" List needs of 18 clubs isn't something that a draft watcher has any more expertise in than most of us. Different story asking "we need an inside mid, who are the ones likely to be available at pick x". But these guys aren't (and mostly don't profess to be) omniscient about every aspect of list management. Collectively on this board, we know more about our list than pretty much anyone else on the site.

Yup, this is the bit that gets me every year. Sometimes I just figuratively want to slap posters asking these questions.

Seriously if you haven't followed the U18 champs, the TAC cup, etc what ever name KM or Bishop or who ever throws up is going to mean sfa to the person asking the question.

 

[winged1]

Didn't Carlton bid on Setterfield last year at 5 and end up taking Petrevski-Seton at 6. Don't recall too much press about that.

You know SPS stands for Second Place (to) Setterfield.

 

[briztoon]

Fagan has said that he is after a hybrid midfielder. Higgins fits the criteria, ballwinning inside mid, goalkicking small forward and tackles. Just what we need. Id be more than happy to take higgins with our first pick.

I would be very much against taking Higgins at pick 1.

Higgins quite school at the beginning of the year to focus on footy to get drafted. When he's not been training, he's been doing an internship at AFL house in the umpires department. He's basically trained and lived the life of a proffessional this year. That's a credit to the kid. But you also have to question how much improvement does Higgins have in his game compared to the kids who have been juggling school and footy and are yet to enter a professional environment.

 

[BuntonRules]

This is our 1 chance at pick 1, IMO we have to get a long term player that will build our team, and a player that will fill a role we are in need of. To me - as an outsider that has seen SFA of any of them - Rayner has far too many question marks, and whilst he may be the most naturally gifted in this draft has too many question marks. LDU is a good midfielder, but will not change our one paced midfield, and has queries of his own. Paddy Dow is the one for us - he may have his imperfections, but fits our needs profile well.

And on the team side - he is a mate of Clug and Berry and would enhance the chance of all three developing into integral parts of our next premiership midfield.

Paddy Dow, come on down.