also reckon gws might tak the gamble at 11.
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2017 Draft thread
- Thread starter dlanod
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Hard to resist, very exciting proposition.
Milk Steak
Norm Smith Medallist
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Make a Bonar/boner pun or get out of here mate
Yep, unfortunately I can't see us getting Bonar.
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It's a really sticky situation, are we coming too early with pick 12, or do we hold off and hope he lasts a bit longer? The wait would be well worth it if we hold off until pick 18 and he explodes next year.
I can't wait for the climax of this trade and draft period.
29 hours to go.
Definitely cant wait that long
You don't have a choice unfortunately. Embrace the madness.
Milk Steak
Norm Smith Medallist
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Not at your age
This is what happens when Lions don't actually make any trades!We can land a man on the moon Milk, science has this covered.
Main topics of conversation the last week have been Bonar, Dodongo's left nut and now Viagra. This place has changed.
Milk Steak
Norm Smith Medallist
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So I'm new here, although have been reading some threads in the last few weeks but this one is long. So could someone give me a quick recap on who we are likely to take at 1? At what point do you all think someone will make a bid for Ballenden?
Luke Davies-Uniacke or Paddy Dow and a smokie is Andrew Brayshaw.
A bid for Ballenden is expected to come around the 15 to 25 mark, personally I think Richmond will bid on him.
Generally consensus is that it's a 3 man race for pick 1. Rayner, LDU and Dow. A few other names have been thrown up such as . Stephensen, Cerra and Brayshaw but industry insiders think they will be in the 5-10 range. Ballenden could go as early as 6 to the Pies but more likely we will just draft him with pick 18 or 20 (depending on CC trade) if no earlier bid as to not impact our 2018 second rounder as we won't have another pick until 43 which AFAIK won't b enough points to cover for a early 2nd round bid on Ballenden.
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Pick 1.
Rayner or Luke Davies-Uniacke (LDU).
Noble has been pretty consistent that you draft best talent. That puts Rayner squarely in the frame. LDU fits our list needs for pure mids much, much better.
Bid on Ballenden, either Richmond at 15 or 17, doesn't matter which pick. If Richmond don't bid and Ballenden makes it in to the second round, not sure who will make a bid. Gold Coast with one of their multitude of early picks, not sure I see that happening. Not sure I see Geelong king a bid. Probably Essendon at 25, if he slides that far, we just know Melbourne will bid at pick 29. Bulldogs at 28 a serious possibility to.
Rayner or Luke Davies-Uniacke (LDU).
Noble has been pretty consistent that you draft best talent. That puts Rayner squarely in the frame. LDU fits our list needs for pure mids much, much better.
Bid on Ballenden, either Richmond at 15 or 17, doesn't matter which pick. If Richmond don't bid and Ballenden makes it in to the second round, not sure who will make a bid. Gold Coast with one of their multitude of early picks, not sure I see that happening. Not sure I see Geelong king a bid. Probably Essendon at 25, if he slides that far, we just know Melbourne will bid at pick 29. Bulldogs at 28 a serious possibility to.
So if he slides to 25, will we have enough draft points to keep him? Or as mentioned above, would just taking him at 18 or 20 be the better and safer option? There is no chance we won't pick him up though, surely?
I was told prior to the 2016 AFL draft that the Suns were going to draft Bowes with pick 10 even if a bid wasn't placed (IIRC Swans placed a bid anyway) as their next available pick was 67... imagine if Bowes had a bid at 11 it would have caused the Suns to push back pick 2 this year to ~ pick 12 I believe. If for example Ballenden got bid on at 21 we just wouldn't have the points available to match him this year and will have to take a deficit into the 2nd round of the 2018 'super draft'. Club will have to determine whether it's worth the risk.
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- Oct 16, 2017
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If Ballenden was bid on at 25, we would require 559 points to match it. Our next pick (43) is worth 378 points. This would leave us 181 points in arrears for next year's draft.
For example, if we finished 14th on the ladder next year and received pick 5. It would be pushed back to pick 7.
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It pushed back our pick in the round that the bid was made.
It would push back our second round pick.
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the points deficit would come off our pick in the corresponding round next year to what the bid is made this year. In the example above its our second round pick that slides, not the first.
- Oct 16, 2017
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Well then it would push back our pick 23 to pick 30
We will get Ballenden either way but do we take a bloke at pick 20 in a weak draft or someone at ~pick 30 in a strong draft or potentially weakening our trade hand next year. These are the questions we'll have to ask ourselves.
