2017 Draft thread

[Nunez]

Just saw the article on the lions website about the no. 1 draft picks for the past 10 years...a lot of disappointment.

How many of them haven't improved their teams?

 

[luthor]

I think that is a very coachable thing (field kicking). I look at Allison who was thought to only have the long bomb in his kit nail some strong bullet passes and that is only in year 1 of his career. I think there's a lot more to it than just getting signed etc, but that is a pretty good fault to have if it's your only fault.

Sure.

Just what I see at this stage of his development.

He does look like a very good player and a natural footballer.

If I were to pick a player he reminds me of it would ne Rory Sloane. Similar height and weight too

Bailey - 181 cm; 80.5 kg
Sloane - 183cm; 79 kg

 

[pulpdriver]

Just saw the article on the lions website about the no. 1 draft picks for the past 10 years...a lot of disappointment.

Way too early to judge half those guys at this point but at the very least every one of them has improved their team or the team's future prospects. Go back six years more and you've got Gibbs, Marc Murphy, Deledio, Cooney, Goddard and Hodge. At their best those guys were amongst the best in the comp. I guess if anything it shows that pick 1 has zero guarantees of a huge career ceiling, but it does come with a very high floor.

 

[briztoon]

Outgoing Gold Coast list manager Scott Clayton bemoaned regular threats from prospects that they would head back to their home state after serving their standard two-year contracts if the Suns drafted them.

http://www.afl.com.au/news/2017-11-14/interstate-club-a-winwin-for-top10-prospect-brayshaw

 

[pulpdriver]

http://www.afl.com.au/news/2017-11-14/interstate-club-a-winwin-for-top10-prospect-brayshaw

He's an impressive young man. He'd be my 3rd choice but would still be more than happy if he was the guy we took with pick 1.

 

[luthor]

The Twomey/Ablett Mock Draft had Geelong bidding on Ballenden at Pick 24 and us "matching" with 40.

After the 20% discount there would still be a deficit of 199.

For the purpose of the exercise, I assume our next Pick (44) would then get pushed out or devalued by 199, turning it into Pick 59.

Am I right?

(I'm still struggling to fully come to grips with how all this works)

 

[Lazza16]

He's an impressive young man. He'd be my 3rd choice but would still be more than happy if he was the guy we took with pick 1.

Would you take Dusty Martin or a very good citizen such as Boak in the draft?

 

[bungalow_bill]

Way too early to judge half those guys at this point but at the very least every one of them has improved their team or the team's future prospects. Go back six years more and you've got Gibbs, Marc Murphy, Deledio, Cooney, Goddard and Hodge. At their best those guys were amongst the best in the comp. I guess if anything it shows that pick 1 has zero guarantees of a huge career ceiling, but it does come with a very high floor.

Especially Weitering and McGrath who have looked good so far. There's also the theory that the #1 is playing in the worst team. How much better would Gibbs have been drafted by Swans or Hawks?

 

[Comeback Lions]

The Twomey/Ablett Mock Draft had Geelong bidding on Ballenden at Pick 24 and us "matching" with 40.

After the 20% discount there would still be a deficit of 199.

For the purpose of the exercise, I assume our next Pick (44) would then get pushed out or devalued by 199, turning it into Pick 59.

Am I right?

(I'm still struggling to fully come to grips with how all this works)

luthor, 20% discount only applies to first round. After that it's a fixed 197 point discount which is usually more. In this case
785-197-429-362=203 pts over =pick 56, so not as far back as you calculated. They were making a similar error in BigFooty Phantom draft on drafts and trading board.

 

[luthor]

luthor, 20% discount only applies to first round. After that it's a fixed 197 point discount which is usually more. In this case
785-197-429-362=203 pts over =pick 56, so not as far back as you calculated. They were making a similar error in BigFooty Phantom draft on drafts and trading board.

Thanks.

I forgot about that fixed 197 part.

 

[pulpdriver]

Would you take Dusty Martin or a very good citizen such as Boak in the draft?

I'd rather the Dusty type hence why Brayshaw is my 3rd choice but you're never talking in absolutes with the draft.
What if you had a choice between two players and it was calculated that one had a 20% chance to be as good as Dustin Martin and the other had a 70% chance to be as good as Travis Boak? Would it impact your decision?

 

[M Malice]

I'd rather the Dusty type hence why Brayshaw is my 3rd choice but you're never talking in absolutes with the draft.
What if you had a choice between two players and it was calculated that one had a 20% chance to be as good as Dustin Martin and the other had a 70% chance to be as good as Travis Boak? Would it impact your decision?

I'd take 60% to be as good as Michael Voss.

 

[pulpdriver]

I'd take 60% to be as good as Michael Voss.

Those are huge odds for a spectacular payoff, you're getting that vibe from a player in this draft?

 

[M Malice]

Those are huge odds for a spectacular payoff, you're getting that vibe from a player in this draft?

No not really, just playing along. The one with the possible highest "potential" ceiling is Aiden Bonar IMO. If he starts sliding on draft night it'll be similar to Jarrod Berry last year, as soon as we took McCluggage at 3 Berry was the one I wanted at 17, it was getting more and more nerve-wracking as pick 17 got closer.

Good omen-
2016, pick 3 to 17= 13 picks to wait out.
2017, pick 1 to 15= 13 picks to wait out.

 

[Lazza16]

I'd rather the Dusty type hence why Brayshaw is my 3rd choice but you're never talking in absolutes with the draft.
What if you had a choice between two players and it was calculated that one had a 20% chance to be as good as Dustin Martin and the other had a 70% chance to be as good as Travis Boak? Would it impact your decision?

Thanks.... the hypothetical...50% no.

 

[SizeMatters]

LDU

 

[captainrich]

Andrew Brayshaw pick 1 would be quality

 

[lionshine]

http://www.afl.com.au/news/2017-11-15/rayner-on-the-run-for-number-one-spot

TOP DRAFT prospect Cam Rayner will have a final opportunity to stake his claims for the No.1 pick with a running test in front of clubs on Friday.

The Western Jets star, who is a leading candidate to be the Brisbane Lions' first choice at the NAB AFL Draft next Friday, will be one of at least five players to run the 2km time trial at Etihad Stadium after being injured at last month's draft combine.

Rayner's explosive streak, his goalkicking prowess and strong overhead marking have made him the most exciting player in this year's draft pool, but clubs have held some concerns over his endurance base and ability to play in the midfield at AFL level.

However, after sitting out the combine with a knee complaint, a strong run in the time trial on Friday could be the final tick for recruiters weighing him up as a top selection.

Darcy Fogarty, Callum Coleman-Jones and Charlie Constable will also run in the time trial having nursed injuries in October, while Lachie Fogarty, who did not attend the combine through illness, ran his time trial on Tuesday.

Mature-ager Tim Kelly, who shone at WAFL level this year, will also complete a 2km time trial in Perth.

Darcy Fogarty has been out of action since mid-season knee surgery, but is in the mix to be a top-10 selection, with North Melbourne, Collingwood and Carlton all linked to the strong-bodied forward.

The draft hopefuls in Melbourne will then also undergo extra medical testing with club doctors, alongside other prospects including Luke Davies-Uniacke, Adam Cerra, Jarrod Brander, Charlie Spargo and Hunter Clark.

Paddy Dow, who had shoulder surgery late in the season, is another who has been given an extra medical screening this week.

Rayner has been seen as one of the favourites to be the No.1 pick for most of the season, but midfielder Andrew Brayshaw is also in contention after a brilliant end to the season that included a standout running performance at the draft combine.

Brander is considered one of the leading key position prospects available but could get through to the latter parts of the first round on draft night.

 

[POBT]

You’d think an average result in the time trial would be enough for Rayner to dispel the concerns around his endurance. With his other talents, doesn’t need to be Haile Gebrselassie as a runner.

 

[WA Lion]

You’d think an average result in the time trial would be enough for Rayner to dispel the concerns around his endurance. With his other talents, doesn’t need to be Haile Gebrselassie as a runner.

Will be a lot of fascinated viewers of that trial for sure. Will be very interesting to see how he goes.

 

[Gadzorks]

You’d think an average result in the time trial would be enough for Rayner to dispel the concerns around his endurance. With his other talents, doesn’t need to be Haile Gebrselassie as a runner.

I expect the result will be good if their injuries abated quickly after the draft camp. Much easier to prep for a single fitness test than the range of activities at the camp.

 

[Dalions]

Will be a lot of fascinated viewers of that trial for sure. Will be very interesting to see how he goes.

I will be one of them, I do rate him as the best talent in the draft, so will be awaiting the results.

 

[WA Lion]

I will be one of them, I do rate him as the best talent in the draft, so will be awaiting the results.

I quite like the fact that there is such a divided opinion and not a locked in number 1 pick at this stage. Making for a more interesting lead up to the draft.

 

[Cockliff38]

It was confirmed by Lions Insider that we didn't nominate Lachie Harris as a F/S... does that mean we forfeit rights to him in the rookie draft as well or is there a separate nomination process for that draft?

 

[Hollow Knight]

I think it's fair to assume we simply don't rate him as worthy of a spot on either list.