Emmanuel Macron, President of the French Republic

[Happy Mastenator]

You seem to think that polls are to be taken as gospel. Just do me a favour and don't delete your posts if Le Pen proves the polls are flawed so that I can bump them to show how naive you are. Just like how Happy Mastenator was taken down a few pegs after he had been spruiking those never wrong FiveThirtyEight polls for over half a year. Truly one of the saddest things that I've ever seen.

Always thought you had a few screws loose from reading through the dribble you post on the hockey board. Good to know that you're at least consistent in the woeful content you post.

Polls in US election were very accurate on a national level, state polling has turned to s**t because no one does it anymore. But, whatever.

 

[Bradesmaen]

You seem to think that polls are to be taken as gospel. Just do me a favour and don't delete your posts if Le Pen proves the polls are flawed so that I can bump them to show how naive you are. Just like how Happy Mastenator was taken down a few pegs after he had been spruiking those never wrong FiveThirtyEight polls for over half a year. Truly one of the saddest things that I've ever seen.

Always thought you had a few screws loose from reading through the dribble you post on the hockey board. Good to know that you're at least consistent in the woeful content you post.

I never said they were to be taken as gospel, but they have been proven to be a reliable indicator of the voting public for many years. This is a proven fact. It's not fake news. You are getting the Electoral College system confused with the polls that were taken. I even showed you that in an earlier post that you just gleefully ignored.

The only person in this thread that is a few screws loose is yourself and your ignorance. Maths and sciences always trumps bullshit and idiocy.

 

[FredLeDeux]

I never said they were to be taken as gospel, but they have been proven to be a reliable indicator of the voting public for many years. This is a proven fact. It's not fake news. You are getting the Electoral College system confused with the polls that were taken. I even showed you that in an earlier post that you just gleefully ignored.

The only person in this thread that is a few screws loose is yourself and your ignorance. Maths and sciences always trumps bullshit and idiocy.

Except in a Trumpian Post-Truth World.

 

[Bomberboyokay]

France's Macron unveils 'anti-nepotism' agenda as scandal engulfs rival Fillon

Latest update : 2017-03-02

A frontrunner in the French presidential elections, Emmanuel Macron, vowed Thursday to end nepotism in government, as it was announced his rival Francois Fillon would be charged over a fake jobs scandal.

Macron, a 39-year-old centrist and former economy minister, who has been criticised for being too vague on policy, laid out his agenda for Le Parisien newspaper.

Macron's agenda comes as a poll showed that only one in four French people thought embattled rightwing candidate Fillon, once considered a favourite, should carry on his presidential bid.

He has been hit by allegations over the past five weeks that he paid his British-born wife Penelope and two of their children hundreds of thousands of euros since 1988 for fake parliamentary jobs.

Fillon said on Wednesday that charges against him were set to be announced on March 15 but that he was a victim of "political assassination" and vowed to stay in the race.

Fillon's being summoned means that investigating magistrates believe there is enough evidence to charge him for embezzlement of public funds, which could lead to a trial.

Analysts have said either Macron or far-right candidate Marine le Pen are best placed to benefit from Fillon's woes.

http://www.france24.com/en/20170302...ndal-engulfs-rival-fillon-presidential-electi

 

[FredLeDeux]

France's Macron unveils 'anti-nepotism' agenda as scandal engulfs rival Fillon

And with Le Pen also in the gun for the same sort of "fake jobs" rort, it could be a case of last man standing, even before the election.

 

[Saintt]

Polls in US election were very accurate on a national level, state polling has turned to s**t because no one does it anymore. But, whatever.

12 polls in just over a month like in Wisconsin (all showing Clinton winning by a big margin) is no one doing it anymore?

 

[Saintt]

Why are French youth so based?

 

[Bradesmaen]

12 polls in just over a month like in Wisconsin (all showing Clinton winning by a big margin) is no one doing it anymore?

Some states do a lot of polling, others don't.

Why are French youth so based?

Because unlike old people who hate change and immigrants (Like Australians who were immigrants/family of immigrants), they actually have a sense of decency.

 

[Saintt]

Some states do a lot of polling, others don't.

Because unlike old people who hate change and immigrants (Like Australians who were immigrants/family of immigrants), they actually have a sense of decency.

Did you look at the image? The younger you are the more likely you'll vote for Le Pen.

 

[Bradesmaen]

Did you look at the image? The younger you are the more likely you'll vote for Le Pen.

Whoops, read that as a time scale. Hmm, weird.

 

[Summer Nights]

Whoops, read that as a time scale. Hmm, weird.

pwned yourself.

 

[iluvparis]

Why are French youth so based?

I'm guessing youth unemployment would be pretty high in some parts of France.

 

[Bomberboyokay]

Why are French youth so based?

Do you have a link for this January poll?

 

[The Speaker]

Do you have a link for this January poll?

http://elabe.fr/wp-content/uploads/...ntentions-de-vote-presidentielles_vague_6.pdf

Pages 16 and 19. Her numbers are also higher among younger voters than older voters in the two-party runoffs later on.

 

[Bomberboyokay]

http://elabe.fr/wp-content/uploads/...ntentions-de-vote-presidentielles_vague_6.pdf

Pages 16 and 19. Her numbers are also higher among younger voters than older voters in the two-party runoffs later on.

I can't read French and you definitely can't read French.

 

[FireKrakouer]

I'm seeing the same desperation to believe the left-leaning polls that I saw for Brexit and Trump. Mentally prepare yourselves for President Le Pen y'all.

 

[The Speaker]

I can't read French and you definitely can't read French.

You didn't even bother to check, did you? Pages 16 and 19 have tables that record the percentage of respondents who would vote for each of the candidates, according to the usual stats, including age, the one you're looking for. Your inability to read French shouldn't prevent you from understanding the numbers shown.

Do you feel better now that you assume yourself to be more intelligent than I am? Is that because my beliefs differ from yours?

 

[Maggie5]

I can't read French and you definitely can't read French.

Looks all French to me too.

 

[The Speaker]

Looks all French to me too.

Do you want me to translate it for you?

 

[Maggie5]

Do you want me to translate it for you?

Understanding the accompanying notes would be handy.
Seems like an interesting document and very comprehensive.

 

[The Speaker]

Understanding the accompanying notes would be handy.
Seems like an interesting document and very comprehensive.

Sticking to the parts that are relevant to the graph that was posted earlier:

Page 13 - First round voting intentions
Hypothesis 1: with Francis Bayrou; Hypothesis 2: without Francis Bayrou

Page 14 - First round voting intentions in the presidential election, with Francis Bayrou
Question: If the first round of the presidential election was held next Sunday, which of the following candidates would you vote for?
Expressed as a percentage of voting intentions, with changes from last poll: Poitou 0.5% (-1.5); Arthaud 0.5% (=); Melenchon 10% (-3); Hamon 16% (+10); Macron 22% (+1); Jadot 1% (=); Bayrou 4% (-4); Fillon 19% (-5); Dupont-Aignan 1% (-0.5); Le Pen 26% (+3)
8% of people asked did not express any voting intention

Page 15 - The choice of electors, with Francis Bayrou
Question: And would you say that you have made up your mind, or that you may change your mind by the time of the election?
Melenchon 61/39
Hamon 58/42
Macron 52/48
Fillon 63/37
Le Pen 81/19

Page 16 - Detail of the results, with Francis Bayrou
Sex of the responder
Male: Poitou 1; Arthaud 1; Melenchon 12; Hamon 15; Macron 23; Jadot 1; Bayrou 3; Fillon 16; Dupont-Aignan 1; Le Pen 28
Female: Poitou 0; Arthaud 0; Melenchon 8; Hamon 17; Macron 21; Jadot 1; Bayrou 5; Fillon 21; Dupont-Aignan 1; Le Pen 26
Age of the responder (this is the one on the graph)
18-24: Poitou 2; Arthaud 1; Melenchon 14; Hamon 11; Macron 15; Jadot 0; Bayrou 0; Fillon 22; Dupont-Aignan 0; Le Pen 35
25-34: Poitou 0; Arthaud 0; Melenchon 14; Hamon 18; Macron 24; Jadot 0; Bayrou 5; Fillon 7; Dupont-Aignan 2; Le Pen 30
35-49: Poitou 0; Arthaud 1; Melenchon 7; Hamon 19; Macron 19; Jadot 1; Bayrou 6; Fillon 17; Dupont-Aignan 0; Le Pen 30
50-64: Poitou 0; Arthaud 0; Melenchon 11; Hamon 18; Macron 22; Jadot 2; Bayrou 1; Fillon 18; Dupont-Aignan 2; Le Pen 26
65+: Poitou 1; Arthaud 0; Melenchon 9; Hamon 12; Macron 27; Jadot 1; Bayrou 5; Fillon 28; Dupont-Aignan 1; Le Pen 16
Profession
Executives, other higher intellectual: Poitou 0; Arthaud 0; Melenchon 9; Hamon 20; Macron 28; Jadot 2; Bayrou 5; Fillon 22; Dupont-Aignan 3; Le Pen 11
Intermediate: Poitou 0; Arthaud 1; Melenchon 12; Hamon 19; Macron 22; Jadot 0; Bayrou 6; Fillon 10; Dupont-Aignan 2; Le Pen 28
Lower employee: Poitou 0; Arthaud 0; Melenchon 10; Hamon 20; Macron 22; Jadot 1; Bayrou 4; Fillon 12; Dupont-Aignan 1; Le Pen 31
Labourer: Poitou 2; Arthaud 2; Melenchon 8; Hamon 15; Macron 15; Jadot 0; Bayrou 3; Fillon 11; Dupont-Aignan 1; Le Pen 44
Retiree: Poitou 1; Arthaud 0; Melenchon 9; Hamon 13; Macron 26; Jadot 2; Bayrou 5; Fillon 25; Dupont-Aignan 1; Le Pen 18
Unemployed: Poitou 1; Arthaud 1; Melenchon 12; Hamon 14; Macron 16; Jadot 0; Bayrou 1; Fillon 22; Dupont-Aignan 0; Le Pen 33
First round presidential vote, 2012
Melenchon: Poitou 0; Arthaud 0; Melenchon 67; Hamon 18; Macron 5; Jadot 2; Bayrou 4; Fillon 0; Dupont-Aignan 0; Le Pen 4
Hollande: Poitou 0; Arthaud 0; Melenchon 6; Hamon 42; Macron 38; Jadot 1; Bayrou 4; Fillon 3; Dupont-Aignan 0; Le Pen 6
Bayrou: Poitou 0; Arthaud 0; Melenchon 2; Hamon 9; Macron 39; Jadot 1; Bayrou 29; Fillon 12; Dupont-Aignan 1; Le Pen 7
Sarkozy: Poitou 0; Arthaud 2; Melenchon 2; Hamon 4; Macron 20; Jadot 0; Bayrou 1; Fillon 56; Dupont-Aignan 1; Le Pen 14
Le Pen: Poitou 0; Arthaud 0; Melenchon 1; Hamon 1; Macron 2; Jadot 0; Bayrou 0; Fillon 2; Dupont-Aignan 1; Le Pen 93

 

[Maggie5]

Sticking to the parts that are relevant to the graph that was posted earlier:

Page 13 - First round voting intentions
Hypothesis 1: with Francis Bayrou; Hypothesis 2: without Francis Bayrou

Page 14 - First round voting intentions in the presidential election, with Francis Bayrou
Question: If the first round of the presidential election was held next Sunday, which of the following candidates would you vote for?
Expressed as a percentage of voting intentions, with changes from last poll: Poitou 0.5% (-1.5); Arthaud 0.5% (=); Melenchon 10% (-3); Hamon 16% (+10); Macron 22% (+1); Jadot 1% (=); Bayrou 4% (-4); Fillon 19% (-5); Dupont-Aignan 1% (-0.5); Le Pen 26% (+3)
8% of people asked did not express any voting intention

Page 15 - The choice of electors, with Francis Bayrou
Question: And would you say that you have made up your mind, or that you may change your mind by the time of the election?
Melenchon 61/39
Hamon 58/42
Macron 52/48
Fillon 63/37
Le Pen 81/19

Page 16 - Detail of the results, with Francis Bayrou
Sex of the responder
Male: Poitou 1; Arthaud 1; Melenchon 12; Hamon 15; Macron 23; Jadot 1; Bayrou 3; Fillon 16; Dupont-Aignan 1; Le Pen 28
Female: Poitou 0; Arthaud 0; Melenchon 8; Hamon 17; Macron 21; Jadot 1; Bayrou 5; Fillon 21; Dupont-Aignan 1; Le Pen 26
Age of the responder (this is the one on the graph)
18-24: Poitou 2; Arthaud 1; Melenchon 14; Hamon 11; Macron 15; Jadot 0; Bayrou 0; Fillon 22; Dupont-Aignan 0; Le Pen 35
25-34: Poitou 0; Arthaud 0; Melenchon 14; Hamon 18; Macron 24; Jadot 0; Bayrou 5; Fillon 7; Dupont-Aignan 2; Le Pen 30
35-49: Poitou 0; Arthaud 1; Melenchon 7; Hamon 19; Macron 19; Jadot 1; Bayrou 6; Fillon 17; Dupont-Aignan 0; Le Pen 30
50-64: Poitou 0; Arthaud 0; Melenchon 11; Hamon 18; Macron 22; Jadot 2; Bayrou 1; Fillon 18; Dupont-Aignan 2; Le Pen 26
65+: Poitou 1; Arthaud 0; Melenchon 9; Hamon 12; Macron 27; Jadot 1; Bayrou 5; Fillon 28; Dupont-Aignan 1; Le Pen 16
Profession
Executives, other higher intellectual: Poitou 0; Arthaud 0; Melenchon 9; Hamon 20; Macron 28; Jadot 2; Bayrou 5; Fillon 22; Dupont-Aignan 3; Le Pen 11
Intermediate: Poitou 0; Arthaud 1; Melenchon 12; Hamon 19; Macron 22; Jadot 0; Bayrou 6; Fillon 10; Dupont-Aignan 2; Le Pen 28
Lower employee: Poitou 0; Arthaud 0; Melenchon 10; Hamon 20; Macron 22; Jadot 1; Bayrou 4; Fillon 12; Dupont-Aignan 1; Le Pen 31
Labourer: Poitou 2; Arthaud 2; Melenchon 8; Hamon 15; Macron 15; Jadot 0; Bayrou 3; Fillon 11; Dupont-Aignan 1; Le Pen 44
Retiree: Poitou 1; Arthaud 0; Melenchon 9; Hamon 13; Macron 26; Jadot 2; Bayrou 5; Fillon 25; Dupont-Aignan 1; Le Pen 18
Unemployed: Poitou 1; Arthaud 1; Melenchon 12; Hamon 14; Macron 16; Jadot 0; Bayrou 1; Fillon 22; Dupont-Aignan 0; Le Pen 33
First round presidential vote, 2012
Melenchon: Poitou 0; Arthaud 0; Melenchon 67; Hamon 18; Macron 5; Jadot 2; Bayrou 4; Fillon 0; Dupont-Aignan 0; Le Pen 4
Hollande: Poitou 0; Arthaud 0; Melenchon 6; Hamon 42; Macron 38; Jadot 1; Bayrou 4; Fillon 3; Dupont-Aignan 0; Le Pen 6
Bayrou: Poitou 0; Arthaud 0; Melenchon 2; Hamon 9; Macron 39; Jadot 1; Bayrou 29; Fillon 12; Dupont-Aignan 1; Le Pen 7
Sarkozy: Poitou 0; Arthaud 2; Melenchon 2; Hamon 4; Macron 20; Jadot 0; Bayrou 1; Fillon 56; Dupont-Aignan 1; Le Pen 14
Le Pen: Poitou 0; Arthaud 0; Melenchon 1; Hamon 1; Macron 2; Jadot 0; Bayrou 0; Fillon 2; Dupont-Aignan 1; Le Pen 93

Thank you, really appreciate the work you have put in.
If I interpret correctly, young support Le Pen and from profession - Intermediate down? Is that correct? Which really means the large majority of the population.

This poll was in January, do you think that Macron has closed the gap?

Do you think that accusations re paying of staff will have any impact or can she explain it off?

 

[The Speaker]

Thank you, really appreciate the work you have put in.
If I interpret correctly, young support Le Pen and from profession - Intermediate down? Is that correct? Which really means the large majority of the population.

This poll was in January, do you think that Macron has closed the gap?

Do you think that accusations re paying of staff will have any impact or can she explain it off?

The most recent poll from the same group was released a few days ago, her numbers are more or less exactly the same. Macron has picked up young voters from Fillon, which has helped him to close the first round gap.

Accusations will have little impact on her support amongst those who will always or never support her. They don't seem to have the same kind of gravitas as those levelled at Fillon anyway.

 

[Maggie5]

The most recent poll from the same group was released a few days ago, her numbers are more or less exactly the same. Macron has picked up young voters from Fillon, which has helped him to close the first round gap.

Accusations will have little impact on her support amongst those who will always or never support her. They don't seem to have the same kind of gravitas as those levelled at Fillon anyway.

Thanks again, will start taking more interest now that I have a better understanding.
Although still a bit difficult getting my head around first round where a couple are elminated then onto the next round.
I thought our system was complicated but it is easy.

 

[iluvparis]

Thanks again, will start taking more interest now that I have a better understanding.
Although still a bit difficult getting my head around first round where a couple are elminated then onto the next round.
I thought our system was complicated but it is easy.

There system is piss easy.

First Rd - every party who wants a crack puts up a candidate. If one candidate gets 50%+ of the vote (has never happen) = instant win.

Second Rd - top two candidates from Round 1 face off. Most votes wins.

Individual counts are the only thing that matters (no electorates or EC).