Prediction 2017 Free Agency & Trading - go to the Gibbs thread if you wish to discuss Gibbs!!!

[WaynesWorld19]

Not sure you mean what I think you mean. Are you really saying we as a club shouldn't bother planning to get a FA? Or are you saying you cant bank a FA? Need clarification before I load the bullets

Can't bank on a Free Agent ....nor can you bank on a trade like Gibbs

 

[Danger in Texas]

They would have planned to have a go ..... But that's entirely different to planning your list management around getting them .....as I said "cream on the cake

However your thoughts re Rockliff next season depends on who we drafted .....given we brought in 4 midfielders, the landscape may have changed where Gibbs as an example is no longer a need ..... Club won't know that till we see mid season how Menzel, Knight, Greenwood, Milera, Gallucci, Poholke develop??

Agree that it all depends on how our players develop. That's more important in regards to trades, though, and how we use our picks. I just can't see how a free hit like Rockliff would not be worth it.

 

[Vader]

Thisiswhat's wrong EVERY year....people talk about the warchest and next years free agents, but every year that list dries up very quickly and then we again talk about "next year" yet again

You can't as a club do any planning around getting a Free Agent ......it's purely hit and miss /cream on the cake

To be fair, it's not the club who is talking about these players. It's only the supporters on BigFooty (and elsewhere) who look at the list of players who are out of contract and start dreaming "what if we could get player X?".

 

[Elite Crow]

To be fair, it's not the club who is talking about these players. It's only the supporters on BigFooty (and elsewhere) who look at the list of players who are out of contract and start dreaming "what if we could get player X?".

That's not true, the club in the past has made comment about the following years free agent list

 

[Vader]

I do, however disagree with your statement that clubs can't "do any planning around getting a Free Agent" - it's just that they have a much better knowledge of which players they can & can't get as a FA.

Adelaide was working on Betts at least 18 months before he left Carlton. You can bet they were "planning around getting" him long before he finally signed on the dotted line. Similarly, Sydney were definitely "planning around getting" Franklin.

You can bet that Adelaide will already have a very good idea which (if any) players they will be signing as FAs in 10 months time. However, the club is a closed book, so the average fans are left to speculate with little real information to work with.

 

[Jack is Back]

I do, however disagree with your statement that clubs can't "do any planning around getting a Free Agent" - it's just that they have a much better knowledge of which players they can & can't get as a FA.

Adelaide was working on Betts at least 18 months before he left Carlton. You can bet they were "planning around getting" him long before he finally signed on the dotted line. Similarly, Sydney were definitely "planning around getting" Franklin.

You can bet that Adelaide will already have a very good idea which (if any) players they will be signing as FAs in 10 months time. However, the club is a closed book, so the average fans are left to speculate with little real information to work with.

However Tippett, Dangerfield and Gunston only made their decision just before or just after the end of the season .

The reality is that clubs have to start the conversation with possible targets 1-2 years before their contract finishes. The new game is to convince free agents to discover the attraction of moving home a year before they become free agents or for other players a year before their current contract finishes. Once the player is on board then you pressure their club with the old "get something now or get less in a year's time". If the club digs their heels in then you hopefully get the player cheap(er) in twelve months time. This may well be our approach with Rockliff.

Whilst we were blindsided by Bock, Davis and Gunston, IMHO we were very naive with Tippett and Dangerfield.

 

[Vader]

However Tippett, Dangerfield and Gunston only made their decision just before or just after the end of the season .

The reality is that clubs have to start the conversation with possible targets 1-2 years before their contract finishes. The new game is to convince free agents to discover the attraction of moving home a year before they become free agents or for other players a year before their current contract finishes. Once the player is on board then you pressure their club with the old "get something now or get less in a year's time". If the club digs their heels in then you hopefully get the player cheap(er) in twelve months time. This may well be our approach with Rockliff.

Whilst we were blindsided by Bock, Davis and Gunston, IMHO we were very naive with Tippett and Dangerfield.

I agree with 90% of this. The middle paragraph is 100% correct.

I'm still not sure what happened with Gunston, and when he made his decision. The others all put off signing their contracts and gave every indication that they might be leaving (i.e. Tiprat & Dangerfield). Gunston actively led the club down the garden path, to the extent that they were expecting him to come in and sign the contract. Instead of driving to the club to sign, he drove to the airport and flew to Melbourne. Was it pre-planned, or a last minute spontaneous decision? I still don't know.

 

[Jack is Back]

I agree with 90% of this. The middle paragraph is 100% correct.

I'm still not sure what happened with Gunston, and when he made his decision. The others all put off signing their contracts and gave every indication that they might be leaving (i.e. Tiprat & Dangerfield). Gunston actively led the club down the garden path, to the extent that they were expecting him to come in and sign the contract. Instead of driving to the club to sign, he drove to the airport and flew to Melbourne. Was it pre-planned, or a last minute spontaneous decision? I still don't know.

I questioned the logic behind drafting him. Rule 1, never draft a player whose father is on the Board of another AFL Club. My only error was predicting that he would piss off to Essendon. Hawthorn have admitted that they were keen to draft him and had kept contact with his agent when he was in Adelaide.

 

[Vader]

I questioned the logic behind drafting him. Rule 1, never draft a player whose father is on the Board of another AFL Club. My only error was predicting that he would piss off to Essendon. Hawthorn have admitted that they were keen to draft him and had kept contact with his agent when he was in Adelaide.

Still a weird set of circumstances. His father was on the Essendon board, yet he chose Hawthorn. Did a runner the very day he told the club he was going to re-sign.

Can't help but wonder if he would have stayed if the SANFL Crows team existed back then, rather than forcing him to play amongst the toothless ferals at Centrals. That must have been a massive culture shock, coming from an upper class Melbourne background, born with a silver spoon in his mouth.

 

[crowsup]

I do, however disagree with your statement that clubs can't "do any planning around getting a Free Agent" - it's just that they have a much better knowledge of which players they can & can't get as a FA.

Adelaide was working on Betts at least 18 months before he left Carlton. You can bet they were "planning around getting" him long before he finally signed on the dotted line. Similarly, Sydney were definitely "planning around getting" Franklin.

You can bet that Adelaide will already have a very good idea which (if any) players they will be signing as FAs in 10 months time. However, the club is a closed book, so the average fans are left to speculate with little real information to work with.

Some people here would say our club have no idea or, if they do, they still mess it up anyway. You just have to read the complaints about this year's FAs.
We did not land any of them because we did not plan on getting any of them, or we failed in the pursuit.

 

[Vader]

Some people here would say our club have no idea or, if they do, they still mess it up anyway. You just have to read the complaints about this year's FAs.
We did not land any of them because we did not plan on getting any of them, or we failed in the pursuit.

Adelaide hasn't exactly been the most active player in the FA market. We signed Betts, and forced Geelong to the trade table over Dangerfield.

I have no idea whether Adelaide was "into" any UFA or RFA players this year. We almost signed Barlow as a DFA, being widely reported as the front runner for his services until the club pulled the plug on him. We'll never know if it was the club, or the player(s), who weren't interested (UFA/RFA) - my money would be on the club.

 

[Carmo]

However Tippett, Dangerfield and Gunston only made their decision just before or just after the end of the season .

The reality is that clubs have to start the conversation with possible targets 1-2 years before their contract finishes. The new game is to convince free agents to discover the attraction of moving home a year before they become free agents or for other players a year before their current contract finishes. Once the player is on board then you pressure their club with the old "get something now or get less in a year's time". If the club digs their heels in then you hopefully get the player cheap(er) in twelve months time. This may well be our approach with Rockliff.

Whilst we were blindsided by Bock, Davis and Gunston, IMHO we were very naive with Tippett and Dangerfield.

A number of clever clubs are now trying to get players to have an interest in their club in the years prior to the draft. This is when the clubs still have open slather access, this is by recruiters getting to know the family, chatting to the players, getting to know them well, even getting to know and keeping in contact with friends circle. Obviously you have to pick your marks with these ones as it would be too much work to do it with everyone. Its also done (but with more restrictions) via various playing and training on opportunities. An example is Toumpas came to train with us prior to getting drafted (I think, memory is vague tho), the players got on well with him and I think that sewed a seed of interest in playing AFL in Adelaide. As it turned out little brother reapt the reward of our good work there but that's not to say we wont reap reward from it in the future.

 

[crowsup]

Adelaide hasn't exactly been the most active player in the FA market. We signed Betts, and forced Geelong to the trade table over Dangerfield.

I have no idea whether Adelaide was "into" any UFA or RFA players this year. We almost signed Barlow as a DFA, being widely reported as the front runner for his services until the club pulled the plug on him. We'll never know if it was the club, or the player(s), who weren't interested (UFA/RFA) - my money would be on the club.

As you said, we have no idea if the club is onto someone. But, if we have no idea, why are some accusing the club of not trying? Or failing to get someone.
To some the idea is that if a player does not come to us, it is the club that failed to convince him to come to us.
If you read all the writing on the Gibb "fiasco", the same crew have said that, even though we did right by not giving two round 1 for Gibb, the club failed to get him because Reid decided to put Carlton on the back foot by announcing it on day one! What lot of rubbish. It would not enter their mind that the club may have known that Carlton were going to be uncooperative and decided to put a bit of pressure on them by telling everybody that Gibb wanted to come home and Carlton wouldn't let him by demanding too much.

 

[ad victoriam]

Have any grand finalists of recent years NOT been significant traders?

significant in what way, selling the farm, or picking up a need because every club has been involving in trading in the last 10 years,
So we can say every club that wins a premiership was involved in trading,
Western Bulldogs to some would not be significant traders, they built their team from drafting and Father-sons.
Hawks did well, in select trading, but they built their team on Drafts and Father-sons, Now they sold the farm and to be honest time will tell if they went down the wrong path.
Geelong in it prime built its team from Draft and Father-sons, with the odd discard added in trading, Again they sold the farm time will tell.
Brisbane again a team built from Drafting and AFL assistance, they just stuff up with bad drafting after they had their success.
Sydney There core is from drafting and Academies, there 2 high priced trades have helped but could end up costing them.

Question I ask - Would the Crows be seen as significant traders if they won in 2017, as they could have up to 8 players they traded for in the best 22. is that significant.
To me, the teams that sell the farm tend to lose out both short term and long term.

Finally the Crows are placed well in getting father sons and Academies players and A few want to throw that away for 1 player. Must remember selected trading can work, Selling the farm is another matter.

 

[Ozzie]

significant in what way, selling the farm, or picking up a need because every club has been involving in trading in the last 10 years,
So we can say every club that wins a premiership was involved in trading,
Western Bulldogs to some would not be significant traders, they built their team from drafting and Father-sons.
Hawks did well select the trades, but they built their team on Drafts and Father-sons, Now they sold the farm and to be honest time will tell if they went done the wrong path.
Geelong in it prime built its team from Draft and Father-sons, with the odd discard added in trading, Again they sold the farm time will tell.
Brisbane again a team built from Drafting and AFL assistance, they just stuff up with bad drafting after they had their success.
Sydney There core is from drafting and Academies, there 2 high priced trades have helped but could end up costing them.

Question I ask - Would the Crows be seen as significant traders if they won in 2017, as they could have up to 8 players they traded for in the best 22. is that significant.
To me, the teams that sell the farm tend to lose out both short term and long term.

Finally the Crows are placed well in getting father sons and Academies players and A few want to throw that away for 1 player. Must remember selected trading can work, Selling the farm is another matter.

Well said.

 

[ad victoriam]

I agree with 90% of this. The middle paragraph is 100% correct.

I'm still not sure what happened with Gunston, and when he made his decision. The others all put off signing their contracts and gave every indication that they might be leaving (i.e. Tiprat & Dangerfield). Gunston actively led the club down the garden path, to the extent that they were expecting him to come in and sign the contract. Instead of driving to the club to sign, he drove to the airport and flew to Melbourne. Was it pre-planned, or a last minute spontaneous decision? I still don't know.

Gunston was pre-planned, rumours have it he was always going but wanted to keep his value up (wages), He did not let the Crows know anything because they would not have played him, if they even thought he was going to leave. He and his manager strung them along and again rumours only with the Hawks in the know. Yet the AFL did nothing.
There are a few that have no time for Gunston or the Hawks after what happen.

 

[Scorpus]

I have no idea whether Adelaide was "into" any UFA or RFA players this year. We almost signed Barlow as a DFA, being widely reported as the front runner for his services until the club pulled the plug on him. We'll never know if it was the club, or the player(s), who weren't interested (UFA/RFA) - my money would be on the club.

My money would be on us not offering Barlow enough money so he signed a better deal with Gold Coast

 

[ad victoriam]

My money would be on us not offering Barlow enough money so he signed a better deal with Gold Coast

Believe the plug was pulled after the coaches interview and the medical talk. Money also talks but the Crows went off him after that visit.

 

[DD#23]

significant in what way, selling the farm, or picking up a need because every club has been involving in trading in the last 10 years,
So we can say every club that wins a premiership was involved in trading,
Western Bulldogs to some would not be significant traders, they built their team from drafting and Father-sons.
Hawks did well, in select trading, but they built their team on Drafts and Father-sons, Now they sold the farm and to be honest time will tell if they went down the wrong path.
Geelong in it prime built its team from Draft and Father-sons, with the odd discard added in trading, Again they sold the farm time will tell.
Brisbane again a team built from Drafting and AFL assistance, they just stuff up with bad drafting after they had their success.
Sydney There core is from drafting and Academies, there 2 high priced trades have helped but could end up costing them.

Question I ask - Would the Crows be seen as significant traders if they won in 2017, as they could have up to 8 players they traded for in the best 22. is that significant.
To me, the teams that sell the farm tend to lose out both short term and long term.

Finally the Crows are placed well in getting father sons and Academies players and A few want to throw that away for 1 player. Must remember selected trading can work, Selling the farm is another matter.

in one single trade (Boyd of course) they blew anything we've done since Carey came over (and arguably anything we've ever seen in the league) out of the water. They also palmed off senior players and gave the midfield to their young players while we won't give up on Douglas or Mackay until they're 300 gamers.

I'd also like to stress again that if we want to build a team at the draft we need to stop ******* around with letting all our senior players take us to semi-finals and pushing us back in the draft order while the guys we want to take us to the next level are playing in the SANFL. It's a joke. I don't mind not trading but you HAVE to aim to peak somewhere, nobody has ever hovered around 6th-10th spot and miraculously leapt to a premiership.

ALL the teams you mention cleaned up on very pointy end of the draft picks AND father sons. The fact of the matter is the talent at pick 16 is never going to be as good as what's on offer in the top 5. For every Dangerfield-unicorn success story there are three other blokes at least in every other draft who are going to be just as good. If I had the choice of having him back or a Shiel or Treloar for example Patty would be staying at Floggs Creek.

 

[ad victoriam]

in one single trade (Boyd of course) they blew anything we've done since Carey came over (and arguably anything we've ever seen in the league) out of the water. They also palmed off senior players and gave the midfield to their young players while we won't give up on Douglas or Mackay until they're 300 gamers.

I'd also like to stress again that if we want to build a team at the draft we need to stop ******* around with letting all our senior players take us to semi-finals and pushing us back in the draft order while the guys we want to take us to the next level are playing in the SANFL. It's a joke. I don't mind not trading but you HAVE to aim to peak somewhere, nobody has ever hovered around 6th-10th spot and miraculously leapt to a premiership.

ALL the teams you mention cleaned up on very pointy end of the draft picks AND father sons. The fact of the matter is the talent at pick 16 is never going to be as good as what's on offer in the top 5. For every Dangerfield-unicorn success story there are three other blokes at least in every other draft who are going to be just as good. If I had the choice of having him back or a Shiel or Treloar for example Patty would be staying at Floggs Creek.

So significant is how much it cost for a player.
Western Bulldog had the ability to move on older player because they had the youth coming into the side to replace them, Remember Boyd was a KPP until the grand final, one player but the players that won the game for them were from there draft and Father-sons, and most were higher picks
What most forget is how much the Tippett penalty cost us. Add those 4 players to our list and Mackay would not have gotten 4 years, Thommo may have been put to rest,
But because we had those penalties we had to play some players longer than expected,

Before we look at spending big on a Sheils type players lets find out how our own Gallucci or Polk go along with Doedee and Milera, then let look at Jackson Edwards and a good KPP next year, Maybe a Smart or Hart along with a 1st round mid in 2018, Then in 2019 one of the best father sons to come to the Crows in Luke Edwards.
We have an a Academy now and the Crows received a very good zone which will piss of Port, in the next few years pay attention to the young African players in the Central junior squads.
We are in a situation that could turn into a golden era with Father -sons and academy kids. plus the odd 1st round pick.
Yes look at trades but spend some time looking at these kids coming thru as we have never been in a situation like what is happening in the next few years before.

 

[DD#23]

What most forget is how much the Tippett penalty cost us. Add those 4 players to our list and Mackay would not have gotten 4 years, Thommo may have been put to rest,
But because we had those penalties we had to play some players longer than expected,

Before we look at spending big on a Sheils type players lets find out how our own Gallucci or Polk go along with Doedee and Milera, then let look at Jackson Edwards and a good KPP next year, Maybe a Smart or Hart along with a 1st round mid in 2018, Then in 2019 one of the best father sons to come to the Crows in Luke Edwards.
We have an a Academy now and the Crows received a very good zone which will piss of Port, in the next few years pay attention to the young African players in the Central junior squads.
We are in a situation that could turn into a golden era with Father -sons and academy kids. plus the odd 1st round pick.
Yes look at trades but spend some time looking at these kids coming thru as we have never been in a situation like what is happening in the next few years before.

I don't forget, that haunts me to this day - as does trying to cling to that seductive 2012 form for so long.

the fact is that gaping hole left by those sanctions is hurting us now and will continue to hurt us until the 2013 draft class is retired. So we have two options:

Option 1: we trade aggressively and go hard at Free Agents to fill about 5 starting 18 spots (the hole left by the sanctions) because we think Tex, Sloane and Talia are going to win us a premiership with the right support. OR

Option 2: we concede the sanctions are as hurtful as they looked on paper and no number of Ogilvie gems from the rookie draft will make up for it. We firstly drop and then sack Thommo, Mackay, Douglas, Jacobs at the nearest opportunity, trade Smith for a first round pick, play guys like Milera and Gallucci all this season no matter where that means we finish, and start loading up at the draft starting with Jackson Edwards with an aim to be back in contention for 2020. Tex and Sloane may not make it but that's footy.

the benefit of Option 1 is that if it fails it still sets us up to roll into Option 2, and the delay would further reduce the pain of the sanctions.

the problem is that our selections this year were of the Option 1 persuasion, but we didn't take any top ups during trade week.

and if we want to take more of an Option 2 approach why the hell did we let Thommo limp through the back half of the year, and Mackay the whole season?

 

[GreyCrow]

So significant is how much it cost for a player.
Western Bulldog had the ability to move on older player because they had the youth coming into the side to replace them, Remember Boyd was a KPP until the grand final, one player but the players that won the game for them were from there draft and Father-sons, and most were higher picks
What most forget is how much the Tippett penalty cost us. Add those 4 players to our list and Mackay would not have gotten 4 years, Thommo may have been put to rest,
But because we had those penalties we had to play some players longer than expected,

I agree in a sense these were the reasons of why this happened. Yet it would have also been the perfect time to think and act creatively. Instead , it seemed, we tucked our bottom lip back up and went for the miracle draft pick. And in Atkins we are going to have 1 positive.

Before we look at spending big on a Sheils type players lets find out how our own Gallucci or Polk go along with Doedee and Milera, then let look at Jackson Edwards and a good KPP next year, Maybe a Smart or Hart along with a 1st round mid in 2018, Then in 2019 one of the best father sons to come to the Crows in Luke Edwards.

This is annoying. You want every one to wait 3 years. Organic Growth. Or*******anic Growth

We have an a Academy now and the Crows received a very good zone which will piss of Port,

Stop competing with Port. Compete with Hawthorn, Sydney and GWS

in the next few years pay attention to the young African players in the Central junior squads.
We are in a situation that could turn into a golden era with Father -sons and academy kids. plus the odd 1st round pick.
Yes look at trades but spend some time looking at these kids coming thru as we have never been in a situation like what is happening in the next few years before.

Lenny (from Mice and Men) likes this

''gonna lie in the sun and live off the fat of the land yessiree''

 

[DD#23]

also ad victoriam I'm very excited about the next gen academy, but its really only bringing us up to speed, not providing a unique advantage.

 

[BRL121]

Believe the plug was pulled after the coaches interview and the medical talk. Money also talks but the Crows went off him after that visit.

This looks right: someone from the club said specifically that the negotiations never progressed beyond preliminary discussions.

 

[ad victoriam]

I don't forget, that haunts me to this day - as does trying to cling to that seductive 2012 form for so long.

the fact is that gaping hole left by those sanctions is hurting us now and will continue to hurt us until the 2013 draft class is retired. So we have two options:

Option 1: we trade aggressively and go hard at Free Agents to fill about 5 starting 18 spots (the hole left by the sanctions) because we think Tex, Sloane and Talia are going to win us a premiership with the right support. OR

Option 2: we concede the sanctions are as hurtful as they looked on paper and no number of Ogilvie gems from the rookie draft will make up for it. We firstly drop and then sack Thommo, Mackay, Douglas, Jacobs at the nearest opportunity, trade Smith for a first round pick, play guys like Milera and Gallucci all this season no matter where that means we finish, and start loading up at the draft starting with Jackson Edwards with an aim to be back in contention for 2020. Tex and Sloane may not make it but that's footy.

the benefit of Option 1 is that if it fails it still sets us up to roll into Option 2, and the delay would further reduce the pain of the sanctions.

the problem is that our selections this year were of the Option 1 persuasion, but we didn't take any top ups during trade week.

and if we want to take more of an Option 2 approach why the hell did we let Thommo limp through the back half of the year, and Mackay the whole season?

2012 When hit with the sanction the first year we had no preparation, but manage to get Atkins and rookie Hartigan
2013 the second year we traded for Betts and Pods and pick 23/Crouch, add Knight we also had no value to trade for big names with. But rookie listed a CC and Kelly
2014 we traded for Cheney and Lowden, And Drafted pick up Lever, McGovern, Dear
2015 we trade for Hampton, Seedsman, Menzel, Gore was part of the Dangerfield loss. And Drafted Milera and Doedee.
2016 nothing but Drafted 5 kids and 1 rookie.

As you said there are two ways to approach it we could have spent too much like our younger brother did or selected trading, we went with selected trading looking to fill a gaps but in some year were restricted in what we could trade, however like all trades and Drafts injuries can curtail the best plans, with Menzel, Hampton and Seedsman all falling to injuries and not able to get their season working.
Thommo and Douglas at the start this year was still in the best 22, MacKay was best 25, now with Hindsight behind us we some have different views,
In 2017 Of the 3 only one was out of contract, he signed on to a young team, and had no barring on the trade plans
The fact is we lost 2 x 1st round picks and 2 x 2nd round picks. they would have been around the mark to put serious doubt in the Crows signing MacKay for 4 years and Thommo needs in the middle this year. Remember Cripps was one who we missed out on in 2013.
During that period we traded and drafted pretty well considering the issue we had.