Prediction 2017 Hopes, predictions and questions

[Kimbo]

A thread for sharing our hopes, predictions and questions...

1. Your 2017 H&A ladder prediction; ladder position and number of wins? (See fixture below)
2. Biggest/most likely win? Biggest/most likely loss?
3. The crowd, the winner and the margin of the Good Friday game?
4. Excluding Good Friday, the 3 games you’d most like to win (or least like to lose) and why?
5. The 3 players you are most hoping to see perform at their best next year?
6. How many players will debut for NM (see list below)? Who specifically? Who will most impress?
7. The backline – hopes, fears, thoughts?
8. The midfield – hopes, fears, thoughts?
9. The forward line – hopes, fears, thoughts?
10. Player likely to show greatest improvement (recaptures best form/takes game to new level)?
11. Player likely to show greatest deterioration (form worsens or goes backwards)?
12. The biggest mystery – which player are you most curious about, but unsure what to expect?
13. The question or request you'd most like to put to Cameron Joyce (GM, Football)
14. The question or request you'd most like to put to the Board or Executive?
15. Your 2017 membership prediction?

To help out, our 2017 fixture is...

Rd 1 (Sun, March 26) — NM v WCE (ES, 1:10pm)
Rd 2 (Sun, April 02) — GEE v NM (ES 1:10pm)
Rd 3 (Sat, April 08) — NM v GWS (BA, 1:45pm)
Rd 4 (Fri, April 14) — NM v WB (ES, 4:20pm)
Rd 5 (Sat, April 22) — FRE v NM (DS, 5:40pm)
Rd 6 (Sat, April 29) — NM v GC (ES, 7:25pm)
Rd 7 (Sat, May 6) — NM v ADE (BA, 1:45pm)
Rd 8 (Sun, May 14) — NM v SYD (ES, 4:40pm)
Rd 9 (Sun, May 21) — MLB v NM (MCG, 3:20pm)
Rd 10 (Sun, May 28) — CAR v NM (ES, 3:20pm)
Rd 11 (Sat, June 3) — NM v RIC (ES, 7:25pm)
Rd 12 BYE
Rd 13 (Fri, June 16) — NM v STK (ES, 7:50pm)
Rd 14 (Sat, June 24) — WB v NM (ES, 7:25pm)
Rd 15 (Sat, July 1) — GC v NM (MS, 4:35pm)
Rd 16 (Sun, July 9) — NM v FRE (ES, 1:10pm)
Rd 17 (Sat, July 15) — PT v NM (AO, 2:10pm)
Rd 18 (Sat, July 22) — ESS v NM (ES, 1:45pm)
Rd 19 (Sat, July 29) — NM v MLB (BA, 1:45pm)
Rd 20 (Sat, Aug 05) — NM v CWD (ES, 7:25pm)
Rd 21 (Sun, Aug 13) — HAW v NM (US, 3:20pm)
Rd 22 (Sun, Aug 20) — STK v NM (ES, 3:20pm)
Rd 23 (Sat, Aug 26) — BL v NM (G, TBC)

List of possible North Melbourne debutants

Marley Williams
Nathan Hrovat
Paul Ahern
Jy Simpkin
Sam Durdin
Daniel Nielson
Braydon Preuss
Ed Vickers-Willis
Declan Watson
Josh Williams
Mitch Hibberd
Nick Larkey
Declan Mountford
Will Fordham (r)
Cameron Zurhaar (r)
Oscar Bunker (r)
Matthew Taylor (r)

 

[Gasometer]

A Lindsay Thomas in a Pear Tree....

 

[Spitter9]

1. Your 2017 H&A ladder prediction; ladder position and number of wins? (See fixture below)

13th - 8 wins

2. Biggest/most likely win? Biggest/most likely loss?

Most likely win - Suns at Etihad
Most likely loss - GWS

3. The crowd, the winner and the margin of the Good Friday game?

Crowd - 45,729
Dogs by 15

4. Excluding Good Friday, the 3 games you’d most like to win (or least like to lose) and why?

Essendon - most hated team
Pies - to rub it into wells
Dogs - big Friday night win is always good

5. The 3 players you are most hoping to see perform at their best next year?

Cunnington
Wood
Ziebell

6. How many players will debut for NM (see list below)? Who specifically? Who will most impress?

7 debutants - M.Williams, hrovat (most impressive), Simpkin, J.Williams, EVW, Hibberd, Durdin

7. The backline – hopes, fears, thoughts?

Hopes - Tarrant to make AA and McDonald to play a full season at a level above what he showed last year. Atley to hopefully no longer be gifted games if he continues playing like he has been
Fears - lack of key defenders if something happens to taz. Worried Nielsen may become a failed draft pick, need him to develop desperately


8. The midfield – hopes, fears, thoughts?

Hopes - Macmillan to push onto a wing and develop into a genuine gun. Cunnington to get back to his 2014 form on a consistent basis. J.Williams, Clarke and Simpkin to provide some speed and class to get us excited about the future.
Fears - loss of wells and Harvey could make an already slow midfield even slower and painful to watch. Fear that Scott won't mix things up in the middle and will stick to ziebell, ben10, swallow combination majority of centre bounces instead of giving the kids a genuine crack in the middle.


9. The forward line – hopes, fears, thoughts?

Hopes - Benny brown to kick 50+ goals. Garner to Have an injury free season for the first time. Lindsay to get fair treatment from the umps. Majak to prove me wrong and show he's a capable permanent forward. Mason wood to have a consistent breakout season. Ziebell/cunners to rest forward more often
Fears - Majak won't be the answer that many think he will be and will be out of his depth. Brown may struggle getting the number 1 defender every week now.


10. Player likely to show greatest improvement (recaptures best form/takes game to new level)?

Mason wood
Ryan Clarke
Luke McDonald
Cunnington (recapture form)
Goldstein (recapture form)

11. Player likely to show greatest deterioration (form worsens or goes backwards)?

Andrew swallow
Sam Gibson (won't be terrible but will worsen after a 3rd place bnf finish)
Jarrad Waite (will be hard to replicate his career best form of early last year)
Lachie Hansen



12. The biggest mystery – which player are you most curious about, but unsure what to expect?

Jed Anderson - think he's got a huge amount of talent. Just a question if he can put it all together + overcome his injuries. I'm tipping he will.

13. The question or request you'd most like to put to Cameron Joyce (GM, Football)

Why we didn't go for another running/outside midfielder with our second pick in the 30's. rationale behind it?


14. The question or request you'd most like to put to the Board or Executive?

Can't think of one ATM

15. Your 2017 membership prediction?

43,000

 

[Ocha905]

1. Finish 12th with 9 wins.
2. Biggest win against Collingwood by 65pts. Biggest loss against GWS by 88pts.
3. Bulldogs by 35pts in front of 45k on Good Friday.
4. Three victories that I most want to see are Rounds 1-3 v West Coast, Geelong and GWS. Win those three and NMFC are back with a vengeance and anything would be possible.
5. Three players I want at their best are the guys with the highest ceiling. Mason Wood, Jy Simpkin and Majak Daw.
6. Nine debutants. From most impressive to least: McKay, Williams, Preuss, Simpkin, Mountford, Vickers-Willis, Nielson, Hrovat and Durdin.
7. Backline-
Hopes: Tarrant stays healthy, Williams becomes best small defender, EVW adequately replaces Firrito.
Fears: Tarrant (leg): 2 weeks. Marley in the headlines (front page), Hansen retires from concussion.
Thoughts: Will hold up surprisingly well considering the bombardment from opposition.
8. Midfield-
Hopes: McDonald transitions well, Cunnington regains BnF form, Ziebel goes up a level.
Fears: Still one paced, Goldstein's form declines, Swallow played despite not being best 22.
Thoughts: The area that will kill our finals hopes in 2016.
9. Forwards-
Hopes: Wood earns All-Australian, McKay shows future star potential, Thomas shoves it up the critics.
Fears: Waite is non-2015 Waite, Supply is not good/frequent enough, Daw fails to cement a spot.
Thoughts: Going to tear my hair out that the best young forward line will get limited opportunities to show their immense worth.
10. Most likely to go to the next level: Wood, Clarke and Ziebel.
11. Form declines: Swallow, Waite and Jacobs.
12. Mystery player: Taylor Garner. Would be the final piece to an awesome forward line. Can his hamstrings hold up?
13. To Joyce: Why are we targeting QLD academy players so much?
14. To the Board: What is the long term plan for Tasmania?
15. Membership tally: 41,500.

 

[Gasometer]

On the First day of Christmas my true love sent to me
Lindsay Thomas in a Pear Tree.

On the Second day of Christmas my true love sent to me
Two brand New Captains
and Lindsay Thomas in a Pear Tree...

On the Third day of Christmas my true love sent to me
Three sack Scotts Threads
Two brand New Captains
and Lindsay Thomas in a Pear Tree...


...someone elses turn...remember we are going to 15 days... GN80 ?....

 

[Dodecahedron]

1. 13 wins and we scrape into the 8 on % making all the popular commentators eat it.
2. Biggest/most likely win - vs *: with or without drugs I want to smash them. Loss - a gut wrenching loss to GC again.
3. Good F - 49500, North by 3 points
4. 3 wins - v WC god I hate them, v Coll sink a nail into Figjam's coffin, v GWS suppress the artificially AFL injected juggernaut.
5. Wood, Daw, mind blowing Captains season from JZ
6. 5 players will debut: EVW, McKay, Hrovat, Pruess and as a surprise Ahern late in the season.
7. Backline - solid but Marley locks down the Betts type players. Taz AA.
8. The midfield - breakout season from Jed and Atley into the middle. Cunners keeps the beard and resurrects his form.
9. The forward line - Wood becomes a gun. Daw kicks 35 and BBB 40 goals. My fear is that LT's shots at goal regress. I saw glimpses of this regression last year although no one talks about it.
10. Player likely to show greatest improvement - Wood
11. Player likely to show greatest deterioration - Scooter unfortunately.
12. The biggest mystery - Daw
13. The question or request you'd most like to put to Cameron Joyce - When are we getting a women's licence? Before or after the horse has bolted?
14. The question or request you'd most like to put to the Board or Executive? Can we stay in Melbourne please?
15. Your 2017 membership prediction? 45000

 

[La Flama Blanca]

1. Your 2017 H&A ladder prediction; ladder position and number of wins? (See fixture below)
Bottom 6.

2. Biggest/most likely win? Biggest/most likely loss?
Gold Coast at Etihad Stadium in round 6 should be a good win (and possibly a much needed circuit breaker following a challenging opening 5 weeks). We've managed to avoid the good interstate sides away so hopefully no real humiliations, but the game against Geelong in round 2 at Etihad Stadium doesn't look great on paper.

3. The crowd, the winner and the margin of the Good Friday game?
Bulldogs by 30+ with a crowd over 40k.

4. Excluding Good Friday, the 3 games you’d most like to win (or least like to lose) and why?
West Coast and Essendon because they're campaigners. Brisbane because losing to them would be a very sour note to end the season on.

5. The 3 players you are most hoping to see perform at their best next year?
Clarke, Wood and Hrovat.

6. How many players will debut for NM (see list below)? Who specifically? Who will most impress?
M.Williams, Hrovat, Simpkin, Vickers-Willis, J.Williams and Hibberd. Hoping Simpkin impresses most.

7. The backline – hopes, fears, thoughts?
We need to be able to defend the small to medium sized opposition forwards better.

8. The midfield – hopes, fears, thoughts?
Hopefully we can get more pace through there with the recent additions to the playing list.

9. The forward line – hopes, fears, thoughts?
Plenty of talent there, just hope we can stay relatively injury free.

10. Player likely to show greatest improvement (recaptures best form/takes game to new level)?
Wood.

11. Player likely to show greatest deterioration (form worsens or goes backwards)?
This is a mean question. I'd like to think none.

12. The biggest mystery – which player are you most curious about, but unsure what to expect?
M.Williams, just because he is such a versatile player and I'm not sure exactly what role we will give him.

13. The question or request you'd most like to put to Cameron Joyce (GM, Football)
In an 18 team competition with only 1 major trophy up for grabs, what edge are we looking to create for ourselves?

14. The question or request you'd most like to put to the Board or Executive?
What are Brad Scott's KPIs for the final 2 years of his contract?

15. Your 2017 membership prediction?
45k.

 

[TheKanga]

1. Your 2017 H&A ladder prediction; ladder position and number of wins? (See fixture below)

13th - 6-8 wins

2. Biggest/most likely win? Biggest/most likely loss?

Round 9 vs. Melbourne // Round 5 Freo over there

3. The crowd, the winner and the margin of the Good Friday game?

41k, Roos by 45

4. Excluding Good Friday, the 3 games you’d most like to win (or least like to lose) and why?

Eagles in round 1, because they have humiliated us in recent times to much in the west.
GWS in Hobart, will be good to see our youngsters take it up to GWS fleet of first round draft picks.
Richmond in Round 11, because it would be hilarious if they are still our bitch.

5. The 3 players you are most hoping to see perform at their best next year?

Clarke, Daw & Garner

6. How many players will debut for NM (see list below)? Who specifically? Who will most impress?

10 debuts

Marley Williams
Nathan Hrovat
Jy Simpkin
Sam Durdin
Daniel Nielson
Braydon Preuss
Ed Vickers-Willis
Mitch Hibberd
Declan Mountford
Paul Ahern

7. The backline – hopes, fears, thoughts?

To much pressure on Tarrant? Thompson needs to be more disciplined as the senior back now.
Hoping Marley Williams can assist Atley in giving us some zip off half-back.

8. The midfield – hopes, fears, thoughts?

Midfield is very sound and able of competing. Hoping to see Ziebs & Cunnington step up.
Will be interesting to see if Spitta can improve without the burden of captaincy.
Ryan Clarke is an exciting prospect.

9. The forward line – hopes, fears, thoughts?

I want to see Majak Daw continue to develop with continuous game time.
Mason Wood will be exciting as well.
Ben Brown is mr reliable, he's been giving us great output and i can see him going one better.
Hoping Waite can stay injury free, his guidance will be valuable to our younger fwds.

10. Player likely to show greatest improvement (recaptures best form/takes game to new level)?

Majak Daw & Ben Cunnington

11. Player likely to show greatest deterioration (form worsens or goes backwards)?

Sadly i could see maybe Waite struggling if his body doesn't hold up.

12. The biggest mystery – which player are you most curious about, but unsure what to expect?

Nathan Hrovat, could be anything.

13. The question or request you'd most like to put to Cameron Joyce (GM, Football)

Where do you see North in 10 years?

14. The question or request you'd most like to put to the Board or Executive?

What makes North so great?

15. Your 2017 membership prediction?

41,034

 

[archereleven]

1. Your 2017 H&A ladder prediction; ladder position and number of wins? (See fixture below)
8th

2. Biggest/most likely win? Biggest/most likely loss?
Rd 16 V Freo
Rd 03 V GWS

3. The crowd, the winner and the margin of the Good Friday game?
57k(record breaker as most people are bored shitless on GF and will want to be at the inaugural game)
NM by 9 points

4. Excluding Good Friday, the 3 games you’d most like to win (or least like to lose) and why?
Rd 03
Rd 04
Rd 08
If we won them games, that would show me we are WAY ahead of the curve re. 'resetting'

5. The 3 players you are most hoping to see perform at their best next year?
Ben Brown
Ben Cunnington
Robbie Tarrant

6. How many players will debut for NM (see list below)? Who specifically? Who will most impress?
Williams - Will play every game and be a lock best 22 player
Hrovat
Preuss
EVW
Hibberd
Simpkin
Durdin

7. The backline – hopes, fears, thoughts?
Tarrant stays injury free and he keeps trending up
Williams plays to his potential and is our answer to small defenders/rebound
Atleys play improves with Williams in the side

8. The midfield – hopes, fears, thoughts?
JZ, Ben10 and Spitta arnt playing together
Hoping Bard can rotate a truck load of HF/MIDS through and actually demand they run both ways
Will be the position that makes or breaks my 8th spot on the ladder prediction

9. The forward line – hopes, fears, thoughts?
BBB to kick 50+
Wood to kick 40+ and average 15 disposals and 6 marks
Forward pressure is a constant in every game.

10. Player likely to show greatest improvement (recaptures best form/takes game to new level)?
Jack Ziebell now he is captain.

11. Player likely to show greatest deterioration (form worsens or goes backwards)?
Andrew Swallow. Just think the game has past him. Still a tackling machine, but its not enough and he doesnt have the flexibility or skill to transition to another position. Majak could fall flat too, but i think the more he plays the more he gives.

12. The biggest mystery – which player are you most curious about, but unsure what to expect?
Any of the draftees from 2014 onwards. They are a mystery wrapped in an enigma atm.

13. The question or request you'd most like to put to Cameron Joyce (GM, Football)
How long has Bard got to prove he is the right man?

14. The question or request you'd most like to put to the Board or Executive?
What year will the debt be erased and what are the plans to implement o the next 4 years under Ben Buckley?

15. Your 2017 membership prediction?
44k

 

[Robertsonroo]

1 Eighth 12 wins
2 Big win over Freo/ Loss to GWS
3 Good Friday 42,000 Win by 10......should have won twice last year against Bulldogs ( made a hash of our second game)
4 Must beat GC, Saints and Magpies
5 McDonald, Wood, Majak
6 EVW will step up and be the best, Hrovat will become that 'cheeky bugger' like Boomer, Sam Durdin may provide 'swing' that Drewy gave, 'Bob' Marley Williams may be a 'horses for courses' selection and Simkin will be given a taste....too early to find spots for others but Neilsen may have to be selected for Thommo's injuries. Watch for Mountford!
7 EVW will slot in as cool as a cucumber, Luke McD will return to form and I think McD, JMac and Atley will be a bit more of a springboard. Tax will be Taz and Sammy Wright will have his best season yet!
8 JZ to star, Cunners to 'return', Clarke to be an emerging champ. If Brad is prepared to use Hrovat, Mountford, Thomas and LMcD we may surprise
9 Great anticipation...Wood, Daw, Garner, Turner, Higgins, Hrovat, Waite, Brown, Anderson and Thomas provide a good 'mix' that may test back lines with the variety on offer
10 Sammy Wright, Cunners, Goldie
11 Love Lachie H but worried about future, Thommo must be managed
12 Jed Anderson is talented but he needs the stars to align....early season form critical
13 Why didn't clubs , especially us, question AFL about GWS Draft picks re Whitfield case? Finished above us, tried to fool AFL drug policy and still kept picks before us!
14 Debt paid off ( when?), next 'big' project (VFL NM team?, Tas Academy future for us?)
15 41,000

 

[goalieboy82]

this will be played at lot:

 

[LuvtheKangas]

1. Your 2017 H&A ladder prediction; ladder position and number of wins? (See fixture below)
4th, 16 wins.

2. Biggest/most likely win? Biggest/most likely loss?
No easybeats any more - perhaps Carlton Rd 10
PA Rd 17, even though they won't make the 8, we are suspect in Adelaide (and against PA)

3. The crowd, the winner and the margin of the Good Friday game?
49.9k. NM by 24 points.

4. Excluding Good Friday, the 3 games you’d most like to win (or least like to lose) and why?
Rd 4 - put the straight back in their place
Rd 5 - Freo will improve, a win over there will be gold
Rd 18 - f*** *

5. The 3 players you are most hoping to see perform at their best next year?
Goldstein
Cunnington
Wood

Those three at their best and we will finish top 4.

6. How many players will debut for NM (see list below)? Who specifically? Who will most impress?
Williams - agree with the previous comment that he will become a lock best 22 player
Simpkin - hope he stays fit, other clubs will rue not taking him top 10
Hrovat - can play
EVW
Preuss
(hoping to see McKay, Hibberd, Durdin and Mountford get a run, too)

7. The backline – hopes, fears, thoughts?
Tarrant improves marginally - should be enough for AA
Williams adds pace, mongrel and the ability to shut down the Betts/Rioli types
Wright back and plays a full season, his best

Fear - injuries.

8. The midfield – hopes, fears, thoughts?
Two of JZ, Ben10, Dumont, LMac and Spitta at most at any one time
At least one of Clarke, Anderson, Simpkin establishes himself as the fast outside mid
Lmac becomes an established member of the midfield rotation, and LT to a lesser extent.

Fear - injuries and being destroyed out of the centre due to all one-paced players at ball-ups

9. The forward line – hopes, fears, thoughts?
BBB to be one of the best big forwards in the game - 60 goals
Garner to play a full season and improve throughout
Waite plays like he did at the start of 2015. Daw plays like he did at the end.

Fear - injuries, plus we don't get the right mix of talls, smalls

10. Player likely to show greatest improvement (recaptures best form/takes game to new level)?
Wood - will show why he is so highly rated

11. Player likely to show greatest deterioration (form worsens or goes backwards)?
Andrew Swallow - hope I'm wrong but he looked gone near the end of last year.

12. The biggest mystery – which player are you most curious about, but unsure what to expect?
Durdin. High draft pick - is he up to it?

13. The question or request you'd most like to put to Cameron Joyce (GM, Football)
Have you critically reviewed all of the assistant coaches, because some don't seem to be adding much value?

14. The question or request you'd most like to put to the Board or Executive?
What alternative revenue sources are we exploring?

15. Your 2017 membership prediction?
46k

 

[ferball]

1. Your 2017 H&A ladder prediction; ladder position and number of wins? (See fixture below)

5th or 6th, 13 or 14 wins.

2. Biggest/most likely win? Biggest/most likely loss?

Lions - biggest.

3. The crowd, the winner and the margin of the Good Friday game?

45 K North by 5 goals

4. Excluding Good Friday, the 3 games you’d most like to win (or least like to lose) and why?

Collingwood (guess why), both Dogs games cos FU Bont and more importantly cos they are the premiers and alleged yardstick. GWS as well, again cos of the yardstick factor.

5. The 3 players you are most hoping to see perform at their best next year?

Everyone. But 3 not including JZ (cos as a new captain I expect that and it should go without saying.)

Brown, Wood and Maj. Hm to Jedly, LT, Cunners and Goldy.

6. How many players will debut for NM (see list below)? Who specifically? Who will most impress?

I'm hoping at least 8 and they get regular games, maybe 10.

Marley Williams, Nathan Hrovat, who I think will both impress. (possible questions about MW.) Mountford maybe impressive as well.

Tyler Durdin, Declan Mountford (who i am hoping will both go well) and then Daniel Nielson, Braydon Preuss, Ed Vickers-Willis and Mitch Hibberd all need a run to see what they may be capable of. Probably about time for fordham to have a run too just to see if he's up to it. So take that as 8 (or 9 if you can count properly). i really can't see the club not debuting all of those players if they are fit and playing to their potential.

Dunno which young draftees will get a go. Zuurhar maybe if there is injury space? Maybe Taylor, and The Other Declan will get a game or two - imo the backline needs the most "resetting". We'd have to have a horror run with Forward injuries again to see Ben Mckay i reckon and I'm happy if we don't. Let him come on in 2018 - we could have some excellent talent debuting that year as well.

7. The backline – hopes, fears, thoughts?

Hoping Taz thrives on the responsibility, Scooter gets some AA form back and Loogie really hits some. And a bit less injury time for the Wrights of the world. I'd be nice if Marley Williams hit 2015 form too. Nielson and Durden - lets hope they come on too. Without Spud its a bit of an unknown at the moment. I think his hardness was really important. if Williams can step up and Scooter (and even someone like LMac) can bring a bit of mongrel we might not miss him as much. If things go well our backline could be awesome, but if they don't it could be a real struggle to hold teams. Its all dependent on what those debutants bring imo (and the midfield pressure). Taz will be very important. If he can lead well and inspire the newcomers then things could be very good.

8. The midfield – hopes, fears, thoughts?

No injuries please.

I'd like to see LMac in there a bit more as well as Jedly and I hope they both bring a bit too. Obviously more run and pressure( and more work from the likes of Ben10.) We really lost that as the season went on. Our midfield could come from JZ, ben10, Spitta, BJ, Higgo, Deadly Jedly, Dumont, Wags and Clarke, LMac, JMac, Garner and Turner, Mountford and Hibberd if they show enough thru the wing. Lets not forget Gibbo. And with potentially, Williams, Ats or even Mullet getting some run thru the middle off half back ... there is a bit of talent in there. That's not including any of the new kids - specifically Hrovat this coming season, who probably deserves to be listed with Higgo, Dumont and ahead of Anderson. If they all bring the pressure and don't miss easy targets that is a potentially s**t hot midfield.

ie What the midfield really needs to nail is its pressure and especially delivery to the advantage of the forwards. Get that last one right and our forward line becomes a weapon.

(Speaking of which...)

Then off the forward line we could see Wood push up and do well, the odd bit of LT and I'd love to see Maj play some Ruck Roving role of he can get the miles in his legs. If the Triple Towers thing starts working again then having targets up into the midfield will benefit us alot. The mobility of Waite, Wood, Brown and Maj means our forward line can dominate all the way thru the square and still have targets ahead of them.

9. The forward line – hopes, fears, thoughts?

50 goals from everyone. That's a reasonable hope isn't it?

Seriously, at least one 50 goal season from a tall forward, and 30 or 40 goals from another two. And a couple of small forwards kicking 20 or 30 each. We have some potential talent there so we need to take advantage of it. We should be aiming for those numbers at least imo. Kicking straight at goal all year would be nice too. If we can see some real tackling pressure from LT and one of Turner or Taylor G then that will serve us well too. The forward line could be anything if Wood, Waite, Maj and Brownie hit some form and get good delivery out of the middle.

If it all goes pear shaped then Waite misses the whole year/can't find any form, Wood becomes the new Black, Brown shows he will never make it at that level as does Maj and LT goes to hell. I can't see any of that happening tho.

10. Player likely to show greatest improvement (recaptures best form/takes game to new level)?

If players like JZ or Cunners show "the greatest improvement" they will win the Brownlow by a mile. Thommo, Hansen, Anderson or Daw. Difference between where they were last year and where they could be is huge so I hope its one of them. if Goldy does it we'll be benefiting lots as well. Spitta could be in that group too, but I do think his best is past him.

11. Player likely to show greatest deterioration (form worsens or goes backwards)?

Someone like Taz has the greatest potential for that to happen (being our best player) but I don't think it will to him. Brownie, Thommo, Spitta maybe. Dunno.

12. The biggest mystery – which player are you most curious about, but unsure what to expect?

Anderson, Hrovat, Garner, Marley Williams, Maj. The way dumont, Clark and wagner will go with more responsibility. Mountford. Couldn't pick one of those as they are all up there in the "mystery/looking forward to seeing it unfold department.

13. The question or request you'd most like to put to Cameron Joyce (GM, Football)

Are you finally gonna make basic skills and goal kicking a priority?

14. The question or request you'd most like to put to the Board or Executive?

Will you buy me a helicopter? Really tho - where do you see the club in 10 years (and by "where" I don't mean what location.)

15. Your 2017 membership prediction?

46000.

 

[Kimbo]

1. Your 2017 H&A ladder prediction; ladder position and number of wins?
12th position, with 9 wins. 6-6 just after the bye, but only three more wins after that.

As ‘exciting’ as it is with all the kids, I expect us to drop back, particularly if we do indeed give games to the younger players. They’ll need time to find their feet, no matter how good they end up being.

2. Biggest/most likely win? Biggest/most likely loss?
Most likely win… Richmond, Rd 11, because Richmond.
Mostly likely loss… Port in Adelaide, because Adelaide.

3. The crowd, the winner and the margin of the Good Friday game?
47,500. North Melbourne by under two goals. We play above ourselves, as befits a game we’ve waited a long time to play in. As with other marquee games, it doesn’t matter where you are on the ladder.

4. Excluding Good Friday, the 3 games you’d most like to win (or least like to lose) and why?

• Rd 1 against the Weagles. Payback.
• Rd 18 against essendon*. Goes without saying really.
• Rd 21 against Hawthorn. Traditional rival, to give belief to the kids. Winning in Tasmania.

(More so as I only predict us winning Rd 1 of these three games.)

5. The 3 players you are most hoping to see perform at their best next year?

• Shaun Higgins because he’s the quality I50 and goal kicking finisher, and we need his experience out there. Also hoping he’s made a solid recovery.
• Trent Dumont because he’s a vital part of our future and it means pressure on Swallow. Also brings more clean I50s.
• Majak Daw, not because I’m a big fan, but rather because we’ve invested heavily and if he doesn’t fire, it’ll put a lot of pressure on BB who’ll already need to deal with better defenders, and Waite who may be ‘touch and go’ physically.

6. How many players will debut for NM? Who specifically? Who will most impress?

• Marley Williams (15 games. Ahead of Mullett, with concerns over Wright’s ankle/s.)
• Nathan Hrovat (22 games. Fills one of the spots left by Harvey, Wells and Dal Santo)
• Jy Simpkin (3-4 games. Later in the season, a few games to blood him, and tease us.)
• Sam Durdin (2-3 games. A deliberate choice to see how he goes.)
• Daniel Nielson (2-3 games. As above.)
• Braydon Preuss (2-3 games. Similar to above, replacing Goldie if he has any niggles.)
• Ed Vickers-Willis (15 games. Assuming he’s ahead of Durdin and Nielson at this point.)
• Declan Mountford (12 games. A surprise packet who takes his chances.)

Hrovat and Mountford to impress the most.

7. The backline – hopes, fears, thoughts?
Hope and fear is a double-edged sword, surrounding EVW, Nielson and Durdin (who I see as a backman). Hopes that one of them steps in, and steps up to fill the big hole left by Spud. The fear is none of them do, though I could live with them learning the caper if there were enough signs.

Fear that Marley is a bust, that Sammy Wright’s ankle injury continues to be problematic and that we end up with Mullett in the backline again. Hope to see Declan “Many Peaks” Mountford get a go at it.

8. The midfield – hopes, fears, thoughts?
Hope is that Dumont, Clarke and Hrovat get a decent shot at it, and that Jacobs is fit. I’d like to get a glimpse of how we look with a ‘new look’ midfield. I expect to see some good signs and some headshaking moments too, particularly defensively. I’d like to see Clarke get amongst the goals.

Fear is that we don’t see enough variation and we’re too often left with the Swallow, Cunnington and Ziebell midfield rotation. While at times I expect we’ll appreciate that they’re there, providing stability and continuity, at other times I expect we’ll see the same old pedestrian set-up and flaws.

9. The forward line – hopes, fears, thoughts?
Hope that we see more of, and improvement in, Turner and Garner. For obvious reasons, we didn’t see enough of these guys in 2016 and we really need to in 2017. I want to see their toughness and smarts, defensively and offensively, and give space for LT to do what he does best (‘x-factor’ and forward line synergy).

Hope Waite stays fit. His first 9 games were Herculean and he’s such a difficult match up. Unlike Drew, gets off the ground. Want to see him knee opponents in the back and head as he goes for his marks. BB to take the step up (in opponent difficulty).

Fear… a lot rides on Daw providing consistent output, otherwise too much will be left to these guys.

10. Player likely to show greatest improvement?
JZ. The captaincy will sit well on his shoulders. He’ll relish leading from the front.

11. Player likely to show greatest deterioration (form worsens or goes backwards)?
Perhaps it is a mean question. Maybe ‘Who do you think might stagnate or struggle to maintain their form or position in the team?’ Mullett and Hansen for me.

If selection committee depart from past form, and select purely on merit not reputation, then I’d like to see Swallow under pressure, along with Atley. Swallow’s defensive work is still very under-rated, but if he, like the ‘Fab Four’ before him is taking up a kid’s spot (eg Dumont), then we’re doing our future a disservice and robbing games from others. Atley suffered from Luke and Sammy not being alongside him and Jmac last year so, other things being equal, I expect he should improve. However, I’m yet to be convinced and if someone like Mountford, along with Williams, can put pressure on him to retain his spot, that’s a good thing.

12. The biggest mystery – which player are you most curious about, but unsure what to expect?
Jed Anderson and Sam Durdin. There are signs each could really excel, but as yet, we’re not seeing enough to really know.

13. The question or request you'd most like to put to Cameron Joyce (GM, Football)
Will we finally be able to spend our ‘war chest’ on a ‘star’ player in next year’s trade or FA period? (PM me... even the initials.)

Will we deliberately prioritise development in 2017, even if it means we’re not quite as competitive as we might otherwise be?

14. The question or request you'd most like to put to the Board or Executive?
When will the bloody debt be gone?

15. Your 2017 membership prediction?
44,500

 

[kangaspurs]

1. Your 2017 H&A ladder prediction; ladder position and number of wins?
10th. 11 wins.

2. Biggest/most likely win? Biggest/most likely loss?
Win: vs Melbourne and Richmond - we just don't lose to either of them (unless we're resting half the side)

Loss: vs GWS - Clearly the best side next year.

Side note, this is actually the first time that I've properly looked at the fixture. Surprised to see that many of our tough games are at home, gives me greater hope next season.

3. The crowd, the winner and the margin of the Good Friday game?
45,378. Dogs, unfortunately. A dour, low scoring struggle played on their terms that they win by 19 points.

4. Excluding Good Friday, the 3 games you’d most like to win (or least like to lose) and why?

The game I want to win the most is vs *. Their fans are up and about now predicting big things. Would love to show them that we're still ahead of them.

vs. Richmond. Same as above. really. Bemused to see so many rate their list ahead of ours.

Rd 2 vs Geelong. Would be a real statement win that demonstrates that we're not going to slide as much as some expect.

5. The 3 players you are most hoping to see perform at their best next year?

Todd Goldstein - He is critical to our fortunes imo. Want to see him put Gawn in his place and return to his rightful position as the number 1 ruck in the league.

Ben Brown - As the number 1 forward he needs to fire for us to be a finals chance.

Ben Jacobs - He simply makes us a better side. His return will be welcomed and hopefully he can return to his best quickly because we need him.


6. How many players will debut for NM? Who specifically? Who will most impress?

8 - Nathan Hrovat (22 games), Marley Williams (22 games), Ed Vickers-Willis (16 games), Mitch Hibberd (9 games), Braydon Preuss (2 games), Jy Simpkin (8 games), Declan Mountford (5 games), Ben McKay (5 games).

Marley Williams will be the most impressive as he returns to his borderline AA 2015 form and be the most welcome addition with his speed. Simpkin and McKay will show future star potential in their brief cameos.

7. The backline – hopes, fears, thoughts?

Hopes - EVW is a seamless replacement for Spud, while Williams gives us added run and drive, putting pressure on Atley for his spot, which makes Atley himself improve his own game.

Fears - Simply, we're ****ed if Tarrant gets injured. With Thompson slowing down and Hansen seeming like a non-factor (and unable to effectively play on the talls anyway), we might be reliant on two of Durdin, Nielsen and Watson to hold down key roles for an extended period of time.

Thoughts - Our small/medium defender stocks look good, great, in fact, but we're obviously light on for talls. Hopefully this sees us incorporate a bit of the 2012 running style back into our game plan.

8. The midfield – hopes, fears, thoughts?

Hope - Scott can effectively find a more dynamic mix to alter what looks like a slow, cumbersome midfield. Mcdonald moves to the midfield. He, Hrovat, Clarke, Anderson, Simpkin and others prove adequate covers for the departed midfielders.

Fears - Scott sticks with the tried and tested and we continually get destroyed on the spread. He continually plays Swallow when it's clear that he's no longer best 22 while Clarke and Dumont play less than 11 games each.

Thoughts - It's our weakest area on the field. Our inside presence is good, but when has it not been good? There is obviously a dearth of quality, proven outside types so we not only need the younger guys to stand up, but we need Scott to be prepared to play the younger guys and try a different mix but also drop the older inside players that aren't performing.


9. The forward line – hopes, fears, thoughts?

Hopes - Wood plays 22 games and establishes himself as a star. Brown relishes being the number 1 man and kicks 50+ goals. Waite stays fit and lightens some of the burden placed upon Brown's shoulders. Garner stays fit and finally shows what he can do on a consistent basis.

Fears - Despite it clearly being our strongest and most dynamic area with the potential to destroy teams, the midfield struggles to get it down there with any speed or skill, barely giving them a chance.

Thoughts - I have very few concerns with our forward line. It looks talented and dynamic with plenty of goals. I am concerned that they won't be given a chance because Ziebell and co will insist on continually throwing the footy on the boot, like they did this season, without any speed or precision.

10. Player likely to show greatest improvement?
From this season to next season: Ben Cunnington - He's our most naturally talented footballer and our best midfielder but was underwhelming this season. We need him to get back to his BnF winning best, and I am predicting he will.

In general: Ryan Clarke. He'll get plenty of games and will average 20+ disposals on his way to a Rising Star placing.

11. Player likely to show greatest deterioration (form worsens or goes backwards)?

Andrew Swallow - He's borderline best 22 imo, but there's no doubt that he will continually get played. By the end of the season it will be clear that he's no longer best 22, but will continue to be played.

12. The biggest mystery – which player are you most curious about, but unsure what to expect?

Sam Durdin - We need one of our young KPP to stand up and make the second tall defender role their own. He's probably the most talented of the lot, but seems to lack the drive. We also need to coaching staff to actually play him in this position in the VFL as well, to give him a chance. We've got plenty of tall forwards.

13. The question or request you'd most like to put to Cameron Joyce (GM, Football)

Who are we targeting with our massive salary cap space at the end of this season? What do you think are the chances of us actually getting him?

14. The question or request you'd most like to put to the Board or Executive?
How often do you play golf with Brad Scott? Are you willing to part ways with him this season if it's clear things aren't working? If not, why does he deserve another chance to rebuild our list?

15. Your 2017 membership prediction?
42,311

 

[Flawed Genius]

1. Your 2017 H&A ladder prediction; ladder position and number of wins? (See fixture below)
I reckon we'll go 12-10, turning 6-5 at the bye. I don't think bottoming out is in this team, even if we end up giving a lot of games to the youngsters in the squad. I think we'll lose a few really gettable games and pinch a few surprises, but ultimately a 9th-10th-11th place finish is on the cards as I don't think 12 wins will get the 8th spot next year. With Petrie and Harvey retiring I don't believe we're as likely to score highly enough to put up big numbers to make up percentage either.

2. Biggest/most likely win? Biggest/most likely loss?
Biggest win = over Brisbane. They are absolutely butt. Port in Adelaide is a likely loss but we're just as liable to give up 160 points to Melbourne at the MCG.

3. The crowd, the winner and the margin of the Good Friday game?
50k, North by 4 points.

4. Excluding Good Friday, the 3 games you’d most like to win (or least like to lose) and why?

• Round 4 vs the Dogs - because there would be nothing sweeter than beating them on the date they tried to steal from us and simultaneously putting them back in their box
• Round 18 vs * - self explanatory and a must-win every year
• Round 7 vs Adelaide - a fair dinkum test against a good side, hopefully with some youth in the lineup

5. The 3 players you are most hoping to see perform at their best next year?

• Cunnington - after a depressingly bad year last year I'd love to see him back at his contested bullocking best, hopefully with an improved outside game
• Daw - because his best is game-breakingly good. Goals, marks, tackles, pressure. If he's at his best we're a very good football side
• Wood - has the potential to be a top 15 player in the league if he puts it all together. Arrogance and class mixed together

6. How many players will debut for NM (see list below)? Who specifically? Who will most impress?

• Marley Williams is better than Mullett, so he should play this year
• Hrovat should get a game through the mid-fwd rotation at some stage, too talented to play VFL for the whole year
• Vickers-Willis will play games on the HBF if he keeps his late-season form up from last year
• Mountford might get a go as that outside mid - looks massive in pre-season and was getting wraps from development coaches
• If Thompson is rested at any stage I think Durdin will get a crack at CHB
• Ben McKay should push for selection late in the year
• I'd love to see Simpkin get games across the half forward flank but he's up against Higgins, Garner, Turner, Anderson and Wagner for that spot

Therefore; M. Williams, Hrovat, Vickers-Willis, Mountford, Durdin and McKay. Of those, I see Hrovat, Williams and McKay having the biggest impact.

7. The backline – hopes, fears, thoughts?
Hopes: Tarrant continues his peerless form from last year, excelling in his new leadership role.
Thompson gradually transitions to making way for Durdin who plays a few games and acquits himself well.
Williams gels with McDonald and Macmillan in that small defender triumvirate.
Fears: Wright doesn't make it back as expected and we struggle for rebound out of defence.
Atley continues his confusing and personally hurtful spiral into mediocrity and is replaced by Josh Williams in Round 18.
An injury to one of the talls exposes our defence and Durdin/Nielson have to play a larger role than they're capable of, meaning we're spanked most weeks.
Thoughts: Tarrant is so good and so important. Building around him is equally as important.
If Durdin can come on in leaps and bounds (I have my doubts) then we have our defence sorted for the next five years.
I believe Thompson must be coming to the end.
Vickers-Willis must play games and I think once he does he will be hard to remove from the line up.
We're dangerously light on for experienced defenders and if either Tarrant or Thompson suffer an injury we're stretched very thin. No surprise we went after Nathan Brown.
I don't think Macmillan's name should be anywhere near the defence this year.
Marley Williams will play every game.
Mullett will struggle to get a game and request a trade at the end of the year.
Anderson and Turner have been mooted as being tried in defence but I don't believe either of them are football smart enough to play there.
I think this is our best defensive six:
Wright - Tarrant - Williams
McDonald - Thompson - Atley
But I believe Atley and McDonald will play greater roles in the midfield this year and expose those spots for Vickers-Willis.
Despite our gun full back I still think our defence is the biggest worry in our side.

8. The midfield – hopes, fears, thoughts?
Hopes: The captaincy takes Z's game to new heights and he makes the leap.
We develop a balance between the outside and inside game.
Work on cleaner ball entry into the forward 50.
Fears: Cunnington has another year like the last.
Swallow can't get back to his usual output.
We don't get any outside runners like Atley or McDonald or Josh Williams etc into the midfield and continue to be one-paced.
Thoughts: I think Wood has the capability to run through the midfield.
I hope Anderson lights it up. Nobody I want to succeed more.
Dumont has outlandish potential.
It will be really interesting to see how Ziebell is used this year and whether he spends more time forward.
Macmillan is a wingman and needs to be used as such.
Atley needs to be trialled in the midfield properly in a year where we are not expected to contend.
Won't see Ahern at all this year.

9. The forward line – hopes, fears, thoughts?
Hopes: Brown and Daw create a semblance of a cohesive forward set up.
Pretty excited about the opportunity of a Drew-less forward line for them to work in.
Realistically this is where Wood spends all his time. Hope he gets a full season at it.
Curious to see how the small forward/midfield mix is worked out with our glut of half forwards.
Hope to see Turner, Anderson, Garner, Higgins etc all given a decent crack at it.
Fears: Garner doesn't make it on the park, mirroring the most tortured career of Kieran Harper.
We miss Harvey more than we expected and we struggle to score.
Waite doesn't make it on the park. Higgins doesn't make it on the park.
We're forced to blood Simpkin because all of our half fowards are injured or drunk.
Thoughts: Turner would want to pull his finger out. Garner too.
Wood can be our most dangerous player in the last 20 years, Boomer notwithstanding.
Daw has the biggest chance of his life to show he belongs in the AFL.
Brown is the #1 banana now. We should all be excited by that.
Ziebell is still a very dangerous forward option.
If we come up against good team defence I think we will struggle to score consistently enough to win.

10. Player likely to show greatest improvement (recaptures best form/takes game to new level)?
Wood/Ziebell

11. Player likely to show greatest deterioration (form worsens or goes backwards)?
Swallow/Thompson

12. The biggest mystery – which player are you most curious about, but unsure what to expect?
Unsure how good Wood can be. Curious about Dumont. Unsure as to whether Swallow still belongs in the team.

13. The question or request you'd most like to put to Cameron Joyce (GM, Football)
Who is the big fish? They clearly exist. Who are we saving the coin for?

14. The question or request you'd most like to put to the Board or Executive?
A greater level of transparency regarding everything we do in Tasmania, from stadium deals to number of matches to the situation surrounding the academy. We can not and should not tolerate any level of murkiness surrounding those waters.

15. Your 2017 membership prediction?
40K+

 

[Luke72]

On the First day of Christmas my true love sent to me
Lindsay Thomas in a Pear Tree.

On the Second day of Christmas my true love sent to me
Two brand New Captains
and Lindsay Thomas in a Pear Tree...

On the Third day of Christmas my true love sent to me
Three sack Scotts Threads
Two brand New Captains
and Lindsay Thomas in a Pear Tree...


...someone elses turn...remember we are going to 15 days... GN80 ?....

On the fourth day of Christmas my true love sent to me...
Four fantastic flags
Three sack Scotts Threads
Two brand New Captains
and Lindsay Thomas in a Pear Tree...

 

[archereleven]

I actually think Scooter will have a pretty good year. Fresh, no niggles and demands from the coaches to play the footy, cut the s**t and coach up any young fellas like EVW that might get a crack.

 

[Egga]

1. Your 2017 H&A ladder prediction; ladder position and number of wins? (See fixture below)
12th-13th. Let's be honest. "Aggressive reset" = rebuild.

2. Biggest/most likely win? Biggest/most likely loss?
Biggest win = Brisbane
Biggest Loss = GWS. The AFL has already engraved their name on the next three premiership cups and are now just tolerating the inconvenient necessity of having them actually play games of football in order to collect the flags that were purchased for them so expensively.

3. The crowd, the winner and the margin of the Good Friday game?
45k, Bullflogs by 36. Maguire to spruik about how such a great day was ruined by such a poor showing from two minnow clubs.

4. Excluding Good Friday, the 3 games you’d most like to win (or least like to lose) and why?

• Their all worth 4 points
• I hate all other teams equally, except the drug cheating filth, who hold a special place in the toilet of my disgust.

5. The 3 players you are most hoping to see perform at their best next year?

• Garner
• Anderson
• Wood
• Daw (sorry, 3 wasn't enough)

6. How many players will debut for NM (see list below)? Who specifically? Who will most impress?

8 Debutants:

• EVW
• Hibberd
• Williams
• Hrovat
• Mountford
• Durdin
• Nielson
• Simpkin

7. The backline – hopes, fears, thoughts?
Hopes: Durdin and Nielson do enough to show they at AFL standard. EVW and Hibberd show we have two top quality flankers for the next decade. Williams shows he not a massive tool. Atley finally gets his sh!t together.
Fears: Durdin and Nielson fail and are delisted at seasons end, leaving us with real KPD concerns.
Thoughts: As implied above...if Durdin and Nielson make it, we will have a great defence for the next decade. If not, we will leak like a disgruntled backbencher.

8. The midfield – hopes, fears, thoughts?
Hopes: Cunnington has his best season yet. Dumont, Anderson, McDonald, Carke and Mountford all show good signs as midfielders.
Fears: Dumont, Anderson, McDonald, Clarke and Mountford stink.
Thoughts: Ziebell and Cunnington both generate more ball in the first half of games than the second. Blind Freddy can tell they run out of puff towards the ends of games. FFS, let both of them play another 10% of the game in the forward line- it's really not that freakin' hard to work out.

9. The forward line – hopes, fears, thoughts?
Hopes: Daw becomes the power forward Petrie was in his prime.
Fears: We learn Daw can't make it as a forward and Brown is only a good 2nd or 3rd forward who can't beat quality #1 defenders.
Thoughts: We have an unrivaled depth of quality small/ mid forwards in Higgins, Thomas, Garner, Anderson, Hrovat, Simpkin, Turner, Wood and Wagner. We really need a few of these guys to make the transition into the midfield and give us some X factor. That would be exciting.

10. Player likely to show greatest improvement (recaptures best form/takes game to new level)?
Garner

11. Player likely to show greatest deterioration (form worsens or goes backwards)?
Waite/ Tarrant - only because they're injury prone. Touch wood.

12. The biggest mystery – which player are you most curious about, but unsure what to expect?
Daw. The biggest coin toss for me. 50% chance power forward. 50% chance Werribee.

13. The question or request you'd most like to put to Cameron Joyce (GM, Football)
Any chance you could actually recruit a gun with a first round draft pick?

14. The question or request you'd most like to put to the Board or Executive?
Can you please rookie list me in next years draft?

15. Your 2017 membership prediction?
39k.

 

[Kimbo]

2. Biggest/most likely win? Biggest/most likely loss?
Win: vs Melbourne and Richmond - we just don't lose to either of them (unless we're resting half the side)

I've suggested on the main board that I think that the GoDees might beat us in 2017. They went very close last year in Tassie and are building, while we're taking a step or two backwards. It's been great though.

5. The 3 players you are most hoping to see perform at their best next year?

Todd Goldstein - He is critical to our fortunes imo. Want to see him put Gawn in his place and return to his rightful position as the number 1 ruck in the league.
Ben Brown - As the number 1 forward he needs to fire for us to be a finals chance.
Ben Jacobs - He simply makes us a better side. His return will be welcomed and hopefully he can return to his best quickly because we need him.

No Atley then?

6. How many players will debut for NM? Who specifically? Who will most impress?

8 - Nathan Hrovat (22 games), Marley Williams (22 games), Ed Vickers-Willis (16 games), Mitch Hibberd (9 games), Braydon Preuss (2 games), Jy Simpkin (8 games), Declan Mountford (5 games), Ben McKay (5 games).

Marley Williams will be the most impressive as he returns to his borderline AA 2015 form and be the most welcome addition with his speed. Simpkin and McKay will show future star potential in their brief cameos.

Will be interesting to see what he produces. You're far more hopeful than I am, but it would be great if Williams does more here than Wellsy manages at the Pies. (Higgins >>>> Greenwood. )

7. The backline – hopes, fears, thoughts?

Hopes - EVW is a seamless replacement for Spud, while Williams gives us added run and drive, putting pressure on Atley for his spot, which makes Atley himself improve his own game.

Fears - Simply, we're stuffed if Tarrant gets injured. With Thompson slowing down and Hansen seeming like a non-factor (and unable to effectively play on the talls anyway), we might be reliant on two of Durdin, Nielsen and Watson to hold down key roles for an extended period of time.

Thoughts - Our small/medium defender stocks look good, great, in fact, but we're obviously light on for talls. Hopefully this sees us incorporate a bit of the 2012 running style back into our game plan.

You've said the midfield is our area of weakness, but the backline rivals it, at least in terms of how precarious is it, or could be, especially as you say, if Tarrant gets injured.

8. The midfield – hopes, fears, thoughts?

Hope - Scott can effectively find a more dynamic mix to alter what looks like a slow, cumbersome midfield. McDonald moves to the midfield. He, Hrovat, Clarke, Anderson, Simpkin and others prove adequate covers for the departed midfielders.

Fears - Scott sticks with the tried and tested and we continually get destroyed on the spread. He continually plays Swallow when it's clear that he's no longer best 22 while Clarke and Dumont play less than 11 games each.

Thoughts - It's our weakest area on the field. Our inside presence is good, but when has it not been good? There is obviously a dearth of quality, proven outside types so we not only need the younger guys to stand up, but we need Scott to be prepared to play the younger guys and try a different mix but also drop the older inside players that aren't performing.

If it's a 'reset' year and we allow a step back in order to take two steps forward, then I'm happy if it involves some experimentation before we get it right. I see it as 'our most uncertain area on field' for now. For example, what will it/could it look like with Luke getting a go in there, along with Atley (I remain to be convinced), and Mountford (if not in the backline), and seeing how Hrovat fits in? Watch this space.

9. The forward line – hopes, fears, thoughts?

Fears - Despite it clearly being our strongest and most dynamic area with the potential to destroy teams, the midfield struggles to get it down there with any speed or skill, barely giving them a chance.

Thoughts - I have very few concerns with our forward line. It looks talented and dynamic with plenty of goals. I am concerned that they won't be given a chance because Ziebell and co will insist on continually throwing the footy on the boot, like they did this season, without any speed or precision.

Yes and, as per my post, assuming Daw holds his own, to support BB especially.

 

[Kimbo]

1. Your 2017 H&A ladder prediction; ladder position and number of wins? (See fixture below)
I reckon we'll go 12-10, turning 6-5 at the bye. With Petrie and Harvey retiring I don't believe we're as likely to score highly enough to put up big numbers to make up percentage either.

Yeah, we're going to need to see some new synergies emerge amongst the new crop, and that's the stuff that can take some time. Remember, Boomer and Wellsy were pretty high for score chain involvements, so whether that's certain 'waxing pairs' or a better overall spread, we are going to need to replace missing elements, and not just individuals per se, as your comment suggests.

4. Excluding Good Friday, the 3 games you’d most like to win (or least like to lose) and why?

• Round 4 vs the Dogs - because there would be nothing sweeter than beating them on the date they tried to steal from us and simultaneously putting them back in their box
• Round 18 vs * - self explanatory and a must-win every year
• Round 7 vs Adelaide - a fair dinkum test against a good side, hopefully with some youth in the lineup

I don't think 'Excluding Good Friday' means what you think it means.

6. How many players will debut for NM (see list below)? Who specifically? Who will most impress?

• Marley Williams is better than Mullett, so he should play this year
• Hrovat should get a game through the mid-fwd rotation at some stage, too talented to play VFL for the whole year
• Vickers-Willis will play games on the HBF if he keeps his late-season form up from last year
• Mountford might get a go as that outside mid - looks massive in pre-season and was getting wraps from development coaches
• If Thompson is rested at any stage I think Durdin will get a crack at CHB
• Ben McKay should push for selection late in the year
• I'd love to see Simpkin get games across the half forward flank but he's up against Higgins, Garner, Turner, Anderson and Wagner for that spot

Therefore; M. Williams, Hrovat, Vickers-Willis, Mountford, Durdin and McKay. Of those, I see Hrovat, Williams and McKay having the biggest impact.

Yeah, interesting to hear about The Real Declan being involved in midfield drills (vs HBF type). With the bigger body he's been developing, and assuming he still has the pace, I reckon he'll be a real surprise packet.
Williams better than Mullett? I'd bloody hope so. Let me just say, if there's one person who was surely happy Bmac was on the list last year, it must have been Fishy. He's got a mountain of work to do to avoid delisting at the end of 2017 (unless he's contracted beyond that) in my humble opinion.
McKay to debut eh? Yeah, it wouldn't completely surprise to see him given a game or two as you've suggested and I do think he will end up having a big impact. It'd surprise me if it was in 2017 though.

7. The backline – hopes, fears, thoughts?
Fears: Wright doesn't make it back as expected and we struggle for rebound out of defence.
Atley continues his confusing and personally hurtful spiral into mediocrity and is replaced by Josh Williams in Round 18.
An injury to one of the talls exposes our defence and Durdin/Nielson have to play a larger role than they're capable of, meaning we're spanked most weeks.
I don't think Macmillan's name should be anywhere near the defence this year.
Marley Williams will play every game.
Mullett will struggle to get a game and request a trade at the end of the year.
Anderson and Turner have been mooted as being tried in defence but I don't believe either of them are football smart enough to play there.

I think this is our best defensive six:

Wright - Tarrant - Williams
McDonald - Thompson - Atley​

But I believe Atley and McDonald will play greater roles in the midfield this year and expose those spots for Vickers-Willis. Despite our gun full back I still think our defence is the biggest worry in our side.

Thanks for sharing your thoughts mate; very interesting and the sort of stuff I'd hoped this thread would elicit.

Okay, so Mullett is traded, not delisted. Either/or.
I agree with your comments on Sammy Wright. If he stays injury free/has recovered well enough, he provides us with the scope to move some of the other chess pieces around (LMac in particular). I have a different view on Jmac though. He played the loose man in defence quite well and was used often as the R50 player. I'd swap him for Luke or Atley in the best defensive six, even though Luke offers more in purely defensive effort.
Anderson and Turner in the backline? I agree, I don't see it. I don't think it'd suit Anderson so much and while I think Turner could adapt to it, his footy smarts (he has them in spades imo) are best used up in the forward line, especially with the defensive pressure he brings.

8. The midfield – hopes, fears, thoughts?
Fears: Cunnington has another year like the last.
Swallow can't get back to his usual output.
We don't get any outside runners like Atley or McDonald or Josh Williams etc into the midfield and continue to be one-paced.
Thoughts: I think Wood has the capability to run through the midfield.
I hope Anderson lights it up. Nobody I want to succeed more.
Dumont has outlandish potential.
It will be really interesting to see how Ziebell is used this year and whether he spends more time forward.
Macmillan is a wingman and needs to be used as such.
Atley needs to be trialled in the midfield properly in a year where we are not expected to contend.
Won't see Ahern at all this year.

Totally agree on Dumont; just needs the opportunity and responsibility.
I haven't made much, if any, comment on 'everyone's darling', Mason Wood. Yeah, I think he'll take a step up and he'll relish the opportunity, including a bit up the ground. I just hope people are forgiving when he doesn't live up to expectations of being the next messiah. His highlight reel, and potential, are great, but he also dropped marks and turned it over a bit too. As much as I thought Drew was cooked, he was a very reliable mark, rarely dropping anything he 'should' hold. I'm hoping for Wood it's just a game time thing and he too, manages this.
Agree on Cunnington and Swallow.
Jmac can play wing, but I think he is also very valuable in defence; see above.
Atley, Atley, Atley. I just don't know with Shaun. I'll be honest and say he could be useful trade bait. I've said on many occasions, while he has the physical attributes to be the outside receiver in the middle, he'll need to be more composed with his decision-making to convince me he's a midfielder's you know what.

9. The forward line – hopes, fears, thoughts?
Curious to see how the small forward/midfield mix is worked out with our glut of half forwards.
Hope to see Turner, Anderson, Garner, Higgins etc all given a decent crack at it.
Fears: Garner doesn't make it on the park, mirroring the most tortured career of Kieran Harper.
We miss Harvey more than we expected and we struggle to score.
Waite doesn't make it on the park. Higgins doesn't make it on the park.
We're forced to blood Simpkin because all of our half fowards are injured or drunk.
Thoughts: Turner would want to pull his finger out. Garner too.
Wood can be our most dangerous player in the last 20 years, Boomer notwithstanding.
Daw has the biggest chance of his life to show he belongs in the AFL.
Brown is the #1 banana now. We should all be excited by that.
Ziebell is still a very dangerous forward option.
If we come up against good team defence I think we will struggle to score consistently enough to win.

Great comments again FG. Yeah, the use/competition amongst the 'glut' (the small forward collective and stand alone word to rival Tef's midfield 'meatgrinder') will be interesting to see. Higgins is a gimme. Garner's hamstrings? Hmm. Turner, yeah, needs to 'pull his finger out', but I reckon he will. Looking good so far... 'best pre-season ever etc.'
So, Wood is the messiah?
I hope Browny does okay with the additional responsibility and pressure he'll receive. I wonder how the forward 'unit' works without the role Drew played (decoy/pressure etc.) I'm not talking performance here, but role. It'd be a waste for Waite to do that; he's too productive to be wasted in non-productive leading patterns although he also (now) does a heap of defensive work. How will the three big guys work together?
JZ up forward? We'll love it when he is, no doubt.

12. The biggest mystery – which player are you most curious about, but unsure what to expect?
Unsure how good Wood can be. Curious about Dumont. Unsure as to whether Swallow still belongs in the team.

Unsure how good Wood can be? So not "can be our most dangerous player in the last 20 years"? Just a very naughty boy?
What are you curious about with Dumont? I think we've seen the sort of output he'll give and for me, his trajectory has been mostly a steady line. WYSIWYG I reckon, minus the additional opportunity.

 

[spurs]

I nearly agreed with most peoples view on Swallow that he might be finished, but after seeing the video of him at training recently, my wife (who loves NMFC) and I agree, that he looks a different player. He looks fast and fit which he hasn't been for 2 years. I have a feeling he's going to turn it on this year.

 

[TennisPlayerAndy]

I nearly agreed with most peoples view on Swallow that he might be finished, but after seeing the video of him at training recently, my wife (who loves NMFC) and I agree, that he looks a different player. He looks fast and fit which he hasn't been for 2 years. I have a feeling he's going to turn it on this year.

He may even kick a goal.

 

[spurs]

He may even kick a goal.

Or 10

 

[Flawed Genius]

I don't think 'Excluding Good Friday' means what you think it means.

I had to get it in there.

Williams better than Mullett? I'd bloody hope so. Let me just say, if there's one person who was surely happy Bmac was on the list last year, it must have been Fishy. He's got a mountain of work to do to avoid delisting at the end of 2017 (unless he's contracted beyond that) in my humble opinion.

I remember an off-season or two ago there were rumours about Melbourne offering us a second rounder for him. How good that would have looked to have taken in hindsight. It's a strange one as I don't believe he's necessarily a bad player, I just don't see where he fits. Williams is a better lockdown defender, McDonald is arguably a better rebound half back, Wright is definitely a better rebound half back, and Macmillan is a better kick and at least on par as a scoring half back. So Mullett just doesn't have a spot because despite all his attributes, which are good, we just have players who are better. I think.

McKay to debut eh? Yeah, it wouldn't completely surprise to see him given a game or two as you've suggested and I do think he will end up having a big impact. It'd surprise me if it was in 2017 though.

You're probably bang on with 2017. I just think the way his bodyshape is developing from that one picture posted in the training thread (I realise how dumb this post sounds when writing it, thanks very much), it looks like he's raring to go. Looks lean and strong and powerful. I have big hopes for him.

Okay, so Mullett is traded, not delisted. Either/or.

I would think if we can't find a trade for him we'd delist him.

Anderson and Turner in the backline? I agree, I don't see it. I don't think it'd suit Anderson so much and while I think Turner could adapt to it, his footy smarts (he has them in spades imo) are best used up in the forward line, especially with the defensive pressure he brings.

Is there a different type of footy smarts when playing forward vs defense? I feel like with forwards, especially crumbers, it's very easy to just say "be at the feet of the big guys, feed off the crumbs, keep the ball in the F50 and if you get it within distance, have a ping". With defenders, it's a different kettle of fish in that you need to know when to leave your man to influence a contest, when to stay, when to tackle if you're 1v2, when to spread and when to stay home, and where to run from a kick out.

Turner is a smart forward with manic pressure and tackling prowess and knows where the goals are. I just don't think he's demonstrated anything that makes me think he would be a better small defender than any of the ones we have back there. Neither has Anderson.

Totally agree on Dumont; just needs the opportunity and responsibility.

I think given the opportunity he will be a far better, more well-rounded player than Swallow.

I haven't made much, if any, comment on 'everyone's darling', Mason Wood. Yeah, I think he'll take a step up and he'll relish the opportunity, including a bit up the ground. I just hope people are forgiving when he doesn't live up to expectations of being the next messiah. His highlight reel, and potential, are great, but he also dropped marks and turned it over a bit too. As much as I thought Drew was cooked, he was a very reliable mark, rarely dropping anything he 'should' hold. I'm hoping for Wood it's just a game time thing and he too, manages this.

Without going and looking up Wood's career total of games, it would be something like under 15? He's shown very large amounts in a very small period of time. He can only go up from here. With continuity and confidence, he can really be anything or anyone.

Atley, Atley, Atley. I just don't know with Shaun. I'll be honest and say he could be useful trade bait. I've said on many occasions, while he has the physical attributes to be the outside receiver in the middle, he'll need to be more composed with his decision-making to convince me he's a midfielder's you know what.

He could easily be trade bait but then who wants him? Who wants a player who has 4 good games a year, runs very fast but doesn't make A1 decisions and so far has shown no ability that he can move into the midfield? It would be a team taking a gamble that they have a setup that he can add to with his pace. Regardless, I think it's a monster year for him, whether it's to prove he deserves another contract or whether he's pumping up his trade value.

Garner's hamstrings? Hmm. Turner, yeah, needs to 'pull his finger out', but I reckon he will. Looking good so far... 'best pre-season ever etc.'

The both of them are the same as Atley, for obviously different reasons. Three massive questions on our list. Is Atley good enough, can Garner's body hold up, does Turner want it more than he wants Instagram followers?

So, Wood is the messiah?

As I said below I'm unsure how good he can be. I believe his ceiling is that of an extremely good player - a Gunston type with more scope for midfield involvement. He certainly moves well enough, displays courage, guile and skill when he has the ball, and has displayed that he's willing to work on his movement when he doesn't have the ball and affecting the ball carrier. Remember this time two years ago he couldn't get a game because he didn't tackle in the VFL? I think at the very least he will be a very good AFL player. At his absolute best he could be an elite half forward.

I hope Browny does okay with the additional responsibility and pressure he'll receive. I wonder how the forward 'unit' works without the role Drew played (decoy/pressure etc.) I'm not talking performance here, but role. It'd be a waste for Waite to do that; he's too productive to be wasted in non-productive leading patterns although he also (now) does a heap of defensive work. How will the three big guys work together?

I remember after the Elimination Final tazaa posted that Browny got "finger ****ed" by Talia. Not far wrong. Browny has a ways to go against the elite defenders of the competition, which he'll now be getting. That's why it's so important that Majak have a good year, because his continued improvement will force a coach to put their second best defender on either Brown or Daw. They both have to have great years for us to win a lot of games, IMHO.

JZ up forward? We'll love it when he is, no doubt.

Sooner rather than later would be better.

Unsure how good Wood can be? So not "can be our most dangerous player in the last 20 years"? Just a very naughty boy?

See above.

What are you curious about with Dumont? I think we've seen the sort of output he'll give and for me, his trajectory has been mostly a steady line. WYSIWYG I reckon, minus the additional opportunity.

I think he has another level. So far he's been solid, but I'm not sure whether his development has been curtailed by the Meat Grinder. There's certainly an opening there if he wants to make it his own and if he does want it bad enough then I'm sure he'll go to that next level.