2017 Ladder Predictions

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Xhoquelin

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The issue with Adelaide as a side is that their primary focus is on avoiding getting the ball stuck in midfield - that's why they focus so much on transition play. Their whole gameplan is designed around it - quick switches, quick kicking, letting the ball do the work so their slow mids aren't exposed for pace. When other sides say they are planning on playing more people through the midfield, they do so with the intention of heavy rotations to maximize the limited burst speed endurance their players have - they just don't have the players capable of playing extended minutes at a high cadence. Whereas other sides are looking at playing others through the midfield because they can genuinely make an impact with their skill and talent.

That's the reason why Adelaide fails in finals every year. Finals are about two things - defence and midfield strength. I've yet to see a finals game where it's a forward kicking a bag of goals that decides the outcome of the match in the modern game because the time and space for forwards is heavily reduced. Sure, the Crows forward line is great (1st in the comp statistically) and their defence too (2nd) but their midfield is still and always will be their Achilles heel. You can bypass it through home and away because every team is looking to conserve energy defensively somewhat for the next game they have to play. In finals, however, there IS no tomorrow, so there is no requirement to conserve energy until the game is already won.

I've got them 4th too, but I've also got them going out in straight sets for this very reason. When they had Dangerfield they were still one elite mid away from winning the flag. Now they are two away, and guys like Thompson who they relied on as an inside mid for so long are getting too old to make a valuable contribution to the cause.

They might try to sucker punch teams with their heavy rotations on field in order to create mismatches, but honestly, it's all just smoke and mirrors. When finals roll around, their forwards will be starved of supply because you've got to be able to generate your own score launches from midfield and not just rely on teams making mistakes - finals teams are finals teams because they don't do that very often.
Brilliant post and I wholeheartedly agree. In the end, Adelaide doesn't have a midfield combination that can stand up for an entire game against Hawthorn, GWS, Bulldogs, Sydney, Geelong, and this season WCE and the Dee's may also overtake them. Their midfield consists of only small, industrious midfielders. They need a bigger guy who can take the game by the scruff of the neck. Their win against the Dee's last year came down to mistakes from Melbourne and not midfield dominance as Gawn had a great game. Losing Lyons only hurts more, one of their few classy players. They need to pump games into Hampton as IMO he is one of their few players with game changing talent. Maybe throw Cameron on the wing, and give Gallucci an early debut. Knight needs games If they go safe and play Thompson, Mackay, Seedsman and Douglas again they will progress no further in the finals for another year.
 
Jul 10, 2008
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I've read the last few pages and I've seen a few suggesting Suns could make the eight. Amm, hello? Have you guys been watching any footy in the last 5 years?

One of the best spines in the comp, Ablett and Swallow return, traded out youngsters who didn't play for midfield depth in Hanley, Barlow and Lyons, four elite top 10 draft picks come in, plus continued improvement from future guns Martin, Saad, Miller, KK and Hall.

As long as they get a better injury run, they're my bolter for 2017. Reckon they'll go close to the 8.
 
Oct 6, 2012
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Brilliant post and I wholeheartedly agree. In the end, Adelaide doesn't have a midfield combination that can stand up for an entire game against Hawthorn, GWS, Bulldogs, Sydney, Geelong, and this season WCE and the Dee's may also overtake them. Their midfield consists of only small, industrious midfielders. They need a bigger guy who can take the game by the scruff of the neck. Their win against the Dee's last year came down to mistakes from Melbourne and not midfield dominance as Gawn had a great game. Losing Lyons only hurts more, one of their few classy players. They need to pump games into Hampton as IMO he is one of their few players with game changing talent. Maybe throw Cameron on the wing, and give Gallucci an early debut. Knight needs games If they go safe and play Thompson, Mackay, Seedsman and Douglas again they will progress no further in the finals for another year.
You had me convinced up until you said that Lyons was one of our few classy players.
 
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Seems like the general consensus is:
GWS, Sydney and Western Bulldogs 1,2,3 as premiership favourites/top 4.
Most have finals stalwarts Adelaide, West Coast, Hawthorn and Geelong from 3-8 with one potentially fading.
Sprinkled in are the upstarts Melbourne and St Kilda somewhere from 5-9.
Then a mess of finals aspirants.
Then Carlton, Brisbane and North Melbourne entrenched in the bottom 4.
 
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One of the best spines in the comp, Ablett and Swallow return, traded out youngsters who didn't play for midfield depth in Hanley, Barlow and Lyons, four elite top 10 draft picks come in, plus continued improvement from future guns Martin, Saad, Miller, KK and Hall.

As long as they get a better injury run, they're my bolter for 2017. Reckon they'll go close to the 8.
I'll believe it when I see it. Until then, nah not buying it. Have them 11-15th. This time they drafted well I think but will take a few years for those players to have an impact.
 
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1/Geelong
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8/Melbourne
9/Pooort
10/Saints
11/Rihcmond
12/Essendon
13/Gold Coast
14/North
15/Collingwood
16/Freo
17/Brizzy
18/Carlton


As much as it pains me to say it, Blues won't win the spoon, will improve enough to win at least 5
 
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The possession based gameplan you used is what made you successful, not just the players who executed it. And that style has been made redundant by sides playing a pressure game all over the ground - which requires defensive endurance which your players don't and will never have.

Clarkson's faith in his abilities as a coach is a strength but also his biggest weakness. He complained about the Bulldogs getting away with illegal disposal in finals and rightly so, but that's not the reason you lost. You'll tread water like Essendon did with Sheedy, making finals and even winning a few...but never really challenging for a flag until one day your board wakes up and realises that 2015 was 10 years ago and doesn't renew his contract, instead hiring Luke Hodge as a favourite son who believes that the reason every other team is just that little bit better is because they are on drugs.

:D :p
Amazing that during 2013-2015 nobody tried applying pressure. 2016 certainly was a watershed year for tactical innovation in footy.

Also somewhat amazing that no other clubs tried to possess the ball at all during this 3 year period.
 

DelRe

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Clarkson's faith in his abilities as a coach is a strength but also his biggest weakness.
This is a coach that hasn't finished below 3rd H&A in the past 6 years, progressing to a GF in 4 of them and winning it in 3. Probably reasonable to have some faith in his abilities.
 

Deep Blue

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Just got a sneaky suspicion Carlton will do a lot better than most here think. Flying under the radar at the moment - strong young team starting to gel, with a good sprinkling of experienced players. Now I'm pretty confident they will finish with more wins than last year; many pundits will be surprised.
 
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Crows don't have a mid that really send fears to opposing taggers like
Cats have Danger and Selwood
Swans have Kieren Jack and others
Dogs have Bontempelli
Suns have Gary Ablett
Freo have Fyfe

They are good young players but don't see how they finish 2nd ahead of other teams like Swans

Kidding yourself if you don't rate Sloane in the elite category of the comp.
 
Amazing that during 2013-2015 nobody tried applying pressure. 2016 certainly was a watershed year for tactical innovation in footy.

Also somewhat amazing that no other clubs tried to possess the ball at all during this 3 year period.

They did actually - that's why you lost to Richmond and Port Adelaide during that period. It's just that age caught up with you in 2016 and the lack of Roughead meant that when faced with the same thing as what Port did in 2014 you couldn't swing him into the midfield and win the game off his boot. We would have easily made the grand final that year if it wasn't for him - and honestly him not being there is yet another reason why the Dogs won the flag.

And no other club tried your game plan because it requires players that have a high skill level that are specifically recruited for that purpose - the quintessential Hawthorn left footer.
 
They did actually - that's why you lost to Richmond and Port Adelaide during that period. It's just that age caught up with you in 2016 and the lack of Roughead meant that when faced with the same thing as what Port did in 2014 you couldn't swing him into the midfield and win the game off his boot. We would have easily made the grand final that year if it wasn't for him - and honestly him not being there is yet another reason why the Dogs won the flag.

And no other club tried your game plan because it requires players that have a high skill level that are specifically recruited for that purpose - the quintessential Hawthorn left footer.
Now surely you're not being serious with this
 
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Just got a sneaky suspicion Carlton will do a lot better than most here think. Flying under the radar at the moment - strong young team starting to gel, with a good sprinkling of experienced players. Now I'm pretty confident they will finish with more wins than last year; many pundits will be surprised.
Disagree with this, Carlton will go backwards this year but it will be a one step back two steps forward thing IMO.

Will play a much younger less experienced team than last year.
 

Bazza97

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Disagree with this, Carlton will go backwards this year but it will be a one step back two steps forward thing IMO.

Will play a much younger less experienced team than last year.
I just think that most of the sides that finished below them last year can make a more immediate impact this year. I'm pretty confident Essendon, GC and Freo will finish ahead of them if they fare well with injuries, and I reckon the Lions are also a solid chance of finishing ahead of the Blues as well. I personally have the Blues in last with Brisbane just finishing ahead of them but I think they would be a pretty clear bottom 2 IMO.
 

10571z

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One of the best spines in the comp, Ablett and Swallow return, traded out youngsters who didn't play for midfield depth in Hanley, Barlow and Lyons, four elite top 10 draft picks come in, plus continued improvement from future guns Martin, Saad, Miller, KK and Hall.

As long as they get a better injury run, they're my bolter for 2017. Reckon they'll go close to the 8.
This.. Tom Lynch and 2 Meter Peter could be the best forward combo. They have plenty of talent elsewhere as well. Win most of their home games and a few away the could easilit sneak in.

Go look at their injury list last year. Was an absolute joke. They had better players injured than playing and still weren't disgraced.
 
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This.. Tom Lynch and 2 Meter Peter could be the best forward combo. They have plenty of talent elsewhere as well. Win most of their home games and a few away the could easilit sneak in.

Go look at their injury list last year. Was an absolute joke. They had better players injured than playing and still weren't disgraced.

I was having a debate with a mate the other day, do the Suns actually have the best spine in the comp? Certainly close and could be beyond doubt by the end of the year.


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app
 

vozzon

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One of the best spines in the comp, Ablett and Swallow return, traded out youngsters who didn't play for midfield depth in Hanley, Barlow and Lyons, four elite top 10 draft picks come in, plus continued improvement from future guns Martin, Saad, Miller, KK and Hall.

As long as they get a better injury run, they're my bolter for 2017. Reckon they'll go close to the 8.

Think GC can be a surprise packet when the list is fully fit. Have the one of the best 1-2 Key Forward combo's, got extra depth with experience in the middle and have a decent defense. Will be in the mix of the teams just outside the 8.
 

Xhoquelin

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Just got a sneaky suspicion Carlton will do a lot better than most here think. Flying under the radar at the moment - strong young team starting to gel, with a good sprinkling of experienced players. Now I'm pretty confident they will finish with more wins than last year; many pundits will be surprised.
Their forward line is trash and Graham, Cunningham or SPS will have to start helping Cripps, Murphy and Gibbs out. They will play better footy but I don't think they will win 5 in a row like they did last year. Less wins doesn't mean no progress. If they can boost their percentage to 90+ while getting 22 games into McKay and Curnow that's more important than trying to contend for finals and improving on the number of wins.
 

vozzon

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I don't get the love for Geelong.

Without Dangerfield I doubt they play finals.

Take a top 2 player from most teams and they wont play finals, only exclusions being WB, Syd and GWS.

Can see geelong being really good if Danger and Selwood play the full year but agree they are so crucial to there success. Alot of teams are in this situation where with a full list look good but wont take many injuries to derail them.
 

Deep Blue

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Their forward line is trash and Graham, Cunningham or SPS will have to start helping Cripps, Murphy and Gibbs out. They will play better footy but I don't think they will win 5 in a row like they did last year. Less wins doesn't mean no progress. If they can boost their percentage to 90+ while getting 22 games into McKay and Curnow that's more important than trying to contend for finals and improving on the number of wins.

Forward line WAS "trash". A lot can happen in a pre-season as the WBs showed over the last couple of years; few changes in the wind at CFC up-forward - expect to see a dynamic mix that will make for a competitive forward-line; and if Cripps has a good year injury-wise then I'm confident we will win more games than last year - stay tuned!
 

ParapMarkets

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Disagree with this, Carlton will go backwards this year but it will be a one step back two steps forward thing IMO.

Will play a much younger less experienced team than last year.
I'm a bit torn on this, I'm not expecting Carlton to rise above the bottom 6. It may be a younger and less experienced side but when you look at who these younger guys will be replacing, it's really not that difficult to see the output of the older players matched. Apart from Tuohy, there isn't anything lost from Carlton from last season. Walker (because of his body) and Everitt were witches hats last year, Casboult is no good and then you have players like White who probably does a good job structurally but isn't very good. Another pre-season into the likes of Curnow, Weitering, Marchbank, Silvagni should be able to make up for sub-par performances from a bunch of not very good older players.
 
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