Have you noticed I haven't been speaking generally about the fixture, just the fixture relating to Geelong? In some cases the fixture is relevant to final finishing position. In Geelong's case it wasn't.
Pretty straightforward.
Did you notice I said "any team", that includes Geelong. It doesn't have to be a major consideration, but you surely agree it needs to be in the mix? I understand what you are saying ... that for Geelong it didn't have any effect last year regarding who you played twice ... I just disagree with that stance.
In 2016 Geelong played these teams twice for 9 wins / 1 loss:
- Adelaide - 2 wins
- Western Bulldogs - 2 wins
- Greater Western Sydney - 1 win (home) / 1 loss (away)
- *Essendon - 2 wins (+90 points)
- *Brisbane - 2 wins (+134 points)
In 2016 Adelaide played these teams twice for 6 wins / 4 losses:
- Geelong - 2 losses
- West Coast - 1 win (away) / 1 loss (home)
- *Fremantle - 2 wins (+105 points)
- North Melbourne- 1 win (home) / 1 loss (away)
- Port Adelaide - 2 wins
* indicate bottom 4 teams
I personally think that is a pretty good return for your double-ups ... had the fixture fallen differently for you, that may have changed. Some teams matchup better than others (Cats vs Crows for instance

)... there are things like form, injuries, reports, travel for each team that all make up the toughness of the fixture. For all of those reasons ... Geelong had an easier run in 2016 than most other teams. That's all. I am not saying that Geelong will have a much tougher run this year than last year because they finished 3rd - but it would be very lucky for you to get the run you got in 2016 in 2017. So, that has to be a small negative for the coming season ... it might not change too many game results - but even if it changes one, that could be crucial.
I've got Geelong in the 5th - 8th bracket, Adelaide in the top 4 ... and as I have said previously, only a very small amount of that prediction is attributed to the fixture. Changes in personnel and a guess on the progression of existing players and coaches is most of it. Last year about the only thing I got right was Bulldogs top - and they really got that from a once in a lifetime finals run, so what would I know anyway
My horrible guesses are:
Greater Western Sydney - top 4
Western Bulldogs
- top 4
Adelaide
- top 4
Sydney - top 4
---------------------------------
Geelong -
5 to 8
West Coast - 5 to 8
St Kilda
- 5 to 8
Gold Coast -
5 to 8
---------------------------------
Hawthorn -
9 to 12
North Melbourne -
9 to 12
Melbourne - 9 to 12
Essendon -
9 to 12
---------------------------------
Collingwood -
bottom 6
Port Adelaide -
bottom 6
Fremantle - bottom 6
Carlton - bottom 6
Richmond - bottom 6
Brisbane Lions - bottom 6