Analysis 2017 List Management Discussion - Part 3

[Soapy V]

You're missing my point, our goal is to be winning a flag in 2021 not 2023

I thought it was to win multiple flags over the next 10-15 years?

 

[Jimmae]

Geelong's drafting has been quite poor for a number of years now, and it's starting to show imo. (They also traded out a fair bit, which hasn't helped).


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They've barely had top 40 picks, and have actually done out of raiding the greater Geelong area, particularly using their VFL as a feeder team.

Some astute late picks too, so if they can make half of them work that's a huge win.

 

[My name geoff]

And rush the rebuild?

Teams don't win flags with a list mostly made up of 24 year old KPP's and 22/23 year old mids.

I like your sense of urgency but fear impatience would bring us undone.

Hypothetically if we say trade:
3 > 7 and 8
8 > 15 and 16
7 > Stringer
15 > Kennedy

2021 best 22:

Plowman(26) jones(30) Weitering(23)
Docherty(27) Marchbank(24) Byrne(26)
Williamson(22) Cripps(26) Pickett(24)
Silvagni(23) Casboult(31) Cuningham(24)
Stringer(27) McKay(23) Curnow(24)

Kruezer (31) SPS (23) Kennedy(24)

Fisher(23) Gibbs(32) Lamb(29) Polson(23)

That side to me looks a lot better than Richmonds right now..

 

[fnm_just a man]

They've barely had top 40 picks, and have actually done out of raiding the greater Geelong area, particularly using their VFL as a feeder team.

Some astute late picks too, so if they can make half of them work that's a huge win.

They've done ok ... Menegola was a good get, but their last 4 top 20 picks have scored them Billie Smedts, Jackson Thurlow, Darcy Lang and Nakia Cockatoo. Still question marks over all of them. I think the expectation is to nail at least two of those. If you go back a bit further, Menz (pick 17) and Mitch Brown (pick 15) ... Then there were great wins with Harry Taylor and Selwood the two years prior to that. Not saying they didn't score with other picks (Mitch Duncan at 28 and Cam Guthrie at 23 (though I don't rate Guthrie as highly as most others), Blicavs as a rookie, but overall (from the draft), I don't think they've done particularly well and is a factor as to why they now lack depth. A lot of players who have played some games, but not many who are turning into top quality footballers.

 

[Soapy V]

Hypothetically if we say trade:

7 > Stringer
15 > Kennedy

Why would any club, let alone Carlton & SOS give up those picks for those players? No need

 

[Soapy V]

2021 best 22:

Plowman(26) jones(30) Weitering(23)
Docherty(27) Marchbank(24) Byrne(26)
Williamson(22) Cripps(26) Pickett(24)
Silvagni(23) Casboult(31) Cuningham(24)
Stringer(27) McKay(23) Curnow(24)

Kruezer (31) SPS (23) Kennedy(24)

Fisher(23) Gibbs(32) Lamb(29) Polson(23)

I'd be disappointed if that was near our best 22 in 2021. Especially considering we could have added between 25-30 new players (4 draft/trade periods) in that time.

 

[Robertio]

I agree with pushing for finals by 19 and challenging in 20 but i still don't see how we are adding 8-12 young talented players when we have 2 picks inside 40 in a weak draft. Gibbs might go which will add a pick maybe another pick/player but thats 4 players, not to mention that not every draft pick is a success.

SOS had a lot of picks at the Giants and he chose poorly on a lot of occasions, it seems people think that we are just going to pick a gem every time.

You must agree his strike rate at Carlton has been pretty good. It's what he's doing for us that counts.

 

[davis_756]

Firstly, he has had injuries stifling his season which would cause some frustration. Secondly, you did state "mental health issues". Happy to leave it there as I really only intended to point out that mental health is often being used as a cop out in my opinion which doesn't help the serious plight of the genuine cohort or even those who often simply need to grow a set.

No I did not

 

[My name geoff]

I'd be disappointed if that was near our best 22 in 2021. Especially considering we could have added between 25-30 new players (4 draft/trade periods) in that time.

It's a bit hard to put a list together of players 2-3 years from now.

That side is a projection based off this years team, and to me it looks superior to the Richmond side that stormed into the PF

 

[My name geoff]

Why would any club, let alone Carlton & SOS give up those picks for those players? No need

A club who wants 10-12 high quality players all around the same age as P.Cripps

 

[Soapy V]

A club who wants 10-12 high quality players all around the same age as P.Cripps

Not for that price. One thing we know about SOS is he doesn't overpay and there is no way he would give up Top 10 picks for Stringer & Kennedy

 

[Soapy V]

It's a bit hard to put a list together of players 2-3 years from now.

That side is a projection based off this years team, and to me it looks superior to the Richmond side that stormed into the PF

Disagree. Way too tall and slow. That forward line alone would struggle once the ball hit the ground.

 

[HavUEvaSeenTheRain]

Agree with you as along as "making the finals" is not the focus of our efforts.

It won't be but even if we stagnate next year (which I'm suspecting) if we haven't improved enough in 2019, 2020 and 2021 to win an extra six games then we would have completely stuffed up.

 

[ShanDog]

"cohort" is my new fave word

Funny, it's become in vogue at my work now too, and I have to say it all the time as part of training and briefings.

Not a fan yet. Sounds dirty.

 

[Azul]

Funny, it's become in vogue at my work now too, and I have to say it all the time as part of training and briefings.

Not a fan yet. Sounds dirty.

It sounds anarchist. destroy capitalism!

agricultural growers syndicate, co-hort.

 

[Soapy V]

It's a bit hard to put a list together of players 2-3 years from now.

That side is a projection based off this years team, and to me it looks superior to the Richmond side that stormed into the PF

I look at it this way. Of our current list I believe these names are part of our next top side and beyond

Docherty Weitering Plowman
Byrne Marchbank Williamson

Kruezer Charlie Polson
SPS Cripps Pickett

Cuningham McKay Murphy
Silvagni Kerr LeBois

Int: Fisher Jones Macreadie Curnow

Lots of talent but lacks depth

This year add Kennedy Smith Balic maybe Lang and as examples LDU Stephenson Higgins and another 4-5 kids. Starting to look very good but a lot of development and patience needed.

Still need to add another 10-12 quality players over the next 2 years to challenge IMO. 2-3 need to be elite

 

[ShanDog]

It sounds anarchist. destroy capitalism!

agricultural growers syndicate, co-hort.

Agrarian anarchists... They are the worst of all the degenerates!

 

[Robertio]

I look at it this way. Of our current list I believe these names are part of our next top side and beyond

Docherty Weitering Plowman
Byrne Marchbank Williamson

Kruezer Charlie Polson
SPS Cripps Pickett

Cuningham McKay Murphy
Silvagni Kerr LeBois

Int: Fisher Jones Macreadie Curnow

Lots of talent but lacks depth

This year add Kennedy Smith Balic maybe Lang and as examples LDU Stephenson Higgins and another 4-5 kids. Starting to look very good but a lot of development and patience needed.

Still need to add another 10-12 quality players over the next 2 years to challenge IMO. 2-3 need to be elite

Hit the nail on the head, the base is their. Add a few more elites and the D word. We seem to do develop our players a lot better nowadays.

 

[BringBackSimmo]

Where did Darcy Lang's name come from?

Don't we already have a former Geelong player that doesn't do anything?

 

[Kismet]

"cohort" is my new fave word

I'm with you on this.

 

[F_therest]

Where did Darcy Lang's name come from?

Don't we already have a former Geelong player that doesn't do anything?

From barrass.

No doubt he would come very cheaply as he is not in Geelong's best 22...we may basically get him for free at this rate.

Pick 16 from 2013 draft so has talent and SOS was into him last year as well...currently can't get a gig in a strong Geelong team with many similar type of players and he suffered an injury in July this year.

Basically a very low risk/high reward acquisition...which is something we absolutely should be doing. If he's a bust, no worries since we wouldn't even have to use a third rounder for him...but he may just turn things around and show his talent belying his first round pick status.

 

[My name geoff]

I look at it this way. Of our current list I believe these names are part of our next top side and beyond

Docherty Weitering Plowman
Byrne Marchbank Williamson

Kruezer Charlie Polson
SPS Cripps Pickett

Cuningham McKay Murphy
Silvagni Kerr LeBois

Int: Fisher Jones Macreadie Curnow

Lots of talent but lacks depth

This year add Kennedy Smith Balic maybe Lang and as examples LDU Stephenson Higgins and another 4-5 kids. Starting to look very good but a lot of development and patience needed.

Still need to add another 10-12 quality players over the next 2 years to challenge IMO. 2-3 need to be elite

Of those players, 10 are ready to play premiership football now based off form and age.

6 more will likely be ready within the next 2 years.

That's 16 premiership ready players by 2019.

If we do go to the draft which is a good idea, we will still have 19 premiership ready players in 2019

If we trade aggressively however, using the same formula as previously posted and get say a Stringer, a Charlie Cameron from the crows, we will have 21 premiership ready players on the list with another 5-10 knocking on the door in Fisher, Polson, Macreadie, Kerr, Lebois, Silvagni as well as whoever we draft or pick up between now and then.

My question is why would we be so conservative and wait until 2023 to challenge for a flag, when we will be capable in 2019.

Why would it be such a bad idea to look at some players who are about to peak and we can pick them up relatively cheaply, as we did with Plowman, Marchbank, Pickett.

Trading pick 3 for 3 former first round picks who are not even in their prime yet seems to be great business from my perspective.

We get 3 players who will be premiership ready in 2019 as opposed to none.

Imagine we can nab Stringer, Smith and Kennedy with pick 3, and Charlie Cameron and a second rounder for Gibbs.. which we could..

In 2019

Plowman Jones Weitering
Docherty Marchbank Byrne
Cameron Cripps Cuningham
Pickett Casboult Fisher
Smith McKay Stringer

Kruezer Charlie Curnow SPS

Kennedy Ed Murphy Silvagni

Only three 21 year olds and one over 30 of which 15 are former first rounders. If Bolton can't do damage with that then we may as well become st.kilda.

Tell me that side would not beat Richmond..

 

[Metalcrusher]

If every list stagnated for the next 2 years and allowed us to "catch up" then sure not many teams would..........

 

[Soapy V]

In 2019

Plowman Jones Weitering
Docherty Marchbank Byrne
Cameron Cripps Cuningham
Pickett Casboult Fisher
Smith McKay Stringer

Kruezer Curnow SPS

Kennedy Ed Murphy Silvagni

Tell me that side would not beat Richmond..

That side would not beat Richmond. You're assuming that side would get on the park each week and win 15 games to be in finals. Doesn't work that way. We need 30 ready players to win a flag.

We aren't getting Cameron or Stringer so it's a mute point. Much prefer LDU or Rayner then Stephenson or Higgins etc. and 10 plus years of being a premiership threat. Not short term thinking to be up and then fall away as quick.

You keep forgetting (as stated by the club) this is about "long term sustainable success"

Richmond aren't even the best side in the comp.

 

[My name geoff]

That side would not beat Richmond. You're assuming that side would get on the park each week and win 15 games to be in finals. Doesn't work that way. We need 30 ready players to win a flag.

We aren't getting Cameron or Stringer so it's a mute point. Much prefer LDU or Rayner then Stephenson or Higgins etc. and 10 plus years of being a premiership threat. Not short term thinking to be up and then fall away as quick.

You keep forgetting (as stated by the club) this is about "long term sustainable success"

Richmond aren't even the best side in the comp.

Try to predict what the Carlton player will be like in 2019 vs the Richmond player this year.

Plowman Jones Weitering
Ellis Rance Grimes

Docherty Marchbank Byrne
Houli Astbury Vlastuin

Cameron Cripps Cuningham
Macintosh Cotchin Townsend

Pickett Casboult Fisher
Lambert Martin Caddy

Smith McKay Stringer
Butler Riewoldt Rioli

Kruezer Charlie Curnow SPS
Nankervis Prestia Grigg

Kennedy Ed Murphy Silvagni
Broad Graham Castagna Edwards

I picked 15 Carlton players over the opposing Richmond player out of the 22.


This Carlton side is only going to improve also. Other than Murphy, Casboult, Kruezer and Jones, every player will be under 27