Analysis 2017 List Management Discussion - Part 3

[DangerousD]

You must agree his strike rate at Carlton has been pretty good. It's what he's doing for us that counts.

Love it mate, it has been fantastic, but it can't go on forever. Im sure we will get a good player at 3 but our later picks in this draft are a worry. Hopefully we find some rough diamonds.

 

[I AM CARLTON]

Club has consistently said 66 game rebuild which means for me come 2019 i want to start seeing results. I dont expect the flag in 2019 but i would be hoping we are having a serious crack at finals.

 

[Soapy V]

Try to predict what the Carlton player will be like in 2019 vs the Richmond player this year.

Plowman Jones Weitering
Ellis Rance Grimes

Docherty Marchbank Byrne
Houli Astbury Vlastuin

Cameron Cripps Cuningham
Macintosh Cotchin Townsend

Pickett Casboult Fisher
Lambert Martin Caddy

Smith McKay Stringer
Butler Riewoldt Rioli

Kruezer Charlie Curnow SPS
Nankervis Prestia Grigg

Kennedy Ed Murphy Silvagni
Broad Graham Castagna Edwards

I picked 15 Carlton players over the opposing Richmond player out of the 22.


This Carlton side is only going to improve also. Other than Murphy, Casboult, Kruezer and Jones, every player will be under 27

Sides will be nothing like that. Too many variables. Like I said you need 30 players. We are not just trying to defeat one side just the once.

You are obviously keen to win a flag now and that is fine. I am looking at developing a long term list that can challenge for a long period.

My expectation is to challenge for finals in 2019 and then Top 4 from 2020 and beyond.

Let's leave it at that

 

[I AM CARLTON]

Dont want Lang just another fringe player like Smedts or Sumner.

 

[My name geoff]

Yawn. Sides will be nothing like that. Too many variables. Like I said you need 30 players. We are not just trying to defeat one side just the once.

You are obviously keen to win a flag now and that is fine. I am looking at developing a long term list that can challenge for a long period.

My expectation is to challenge for finals in 2019 and then Top 4 from 2020 and beyond.

Let's leave it at that

I'm not saying I want a flag now, I'm saying that we can be ready by 2019 to have a serious side, why would we keep putting our biggest trade asset into the '4 years away' basket.

Why not have a crack at the 2 years away but still maintain a long term vision.

The league doesn't wait for Carlton to finish it's perfect rebuild. Players want success too, that has to be aknowleged.
Imagine how motivated players will be when they see Stringer, Cameron, Kennedy walk into club instead of another 18 year old..

Trading pick 3 for these types of players is not sacrificing the long term strategy, it's complimenting it.

 

[Benaly28]

Couple of players for the swans that we might look at.James Rose and Daniel Robinson.Both play that mid-forward type role.

 

[Iamcarlton]

I'd be disappointed if that was near our best 22 in 2021. Especially considering we could have added between 25-30 new players (4 draft/trade periods) in that time.

Another 25-30 players ?? Does this mean your consigning the current best 22 side to the reserves and replacing them with a shiny new side ? Gee we are going to have some depth

 

[PoultryinMotion]

No I did not

Apologies. Just checked and it was "mental issues". My point regarding your assumption Stringer has mental issues still stands however. Play on!

 

[ferrisb]

Teams will be flocking to round him up.....

A guy once asked me to round up his 68 sheep.

I said sure, make it 70.

 

[HBF]

No question marks on north, they are absolutely shite and will be for some time

Yep their list is in quite a bad way.

 

[HBF]

Hope in the midfield. Really rate this kid. Raw but very smart with ball in hand, can win a lot of ball and has some pace. Ideal Murphy replacement IMO

A guy i work with knows him. Tells me he's a great kid and will work his arse off to make it at AFL level.

 

[katmanblue]

Of those players, 10 are ready to play premiership football now based off form and age.

6 more will likely be ready within the next 2 years.

That's 16 premiership ready players by 2019.

If we do go to the draft which is a good idea, we will still have 19 premiership ready players in 2019

If we trade aggressively however, using the same formula as previously posted and get say a Stringer, a Charlie Cameron from the crows, we will have 21 premiership ready players on the list with another 5-10 knocking on the door in Fisher, Polson, Macreadie, Kerr, Lebois, Silvagni as well as whoever we draft or pick up between now and then.

My question is why would we be so conservative and wait until 2023 to challenge for a flag, when we will be capable in 2019.

Why would it be such a bad idea to look at some players who are about to peak and we can pick them up relatively cheaply, as we did with Plowman, Marchbank, Pickett.

Trading pick 3 for 3 former first round picks who are not even in their prime yet seems to be great business from my perspective.

We get 3 players who will be premiership ready in 2019 as opposed to none.

Imagine we can nab Stringer, Smith and Kennedy with pick 3, and Charlie Cameron and a second rounder for Gibbs.. which we could..

In 2019

Plowman Jones Weitering
Docherty Marchbank Byrne
Cameron Cripps Cuningham
Pickett Casboult Fisher
Smith McKay Stringer

Kruezer Charlie Curnow SPS

Kennedy Ed Murphy Silvagni

Only three 21 year olds and one over 30 of which 15 are former first rounders. If Bolton can't do damage with that then we may as well become st.kilda.

Tell me that side would not beat Richmond..

Because we want to be stocked with young talent 18-20yo x about 10-12 ready push up as the older guys get pushed out for the next tilt.

We dont want to be one and done.

We want sustained success with young quality coming through for repeat flag tilts. I think this is achieveable but our pacients will be test before our first real go at it.

 

[Soapy V]

A guy i work with knows him. Tells me he's a great kid and will work his arse off to make it at AFL level.

[emoji106] another SOS quality kid

 

[TD2010]

Crap. Sorry but that really annoys me. Take the negative stuff an go away. So many variables. So much good is happening at this club and I couldn't be happier. Give them a realistic chance before spouting this BS

Yeah, sounds like one of those Coterie w***ers that got Ratts sacked for MM. Feels ballsey and passionate but utterly amateur

Sent from my Pixel XL using Tapatalk

 

[davis_756]

Apologies. Just checked and it was "mental issues". My point regarding your assumption Stringer has mental issues still stands however. Play on!

The bulldogs are questioning his mental commitment as a reason for why they will offload him, Mitch Wallis interview the other day stated as much.

 

[Funk]

A guy once asked me to round up his 68 sheep.

I said sure, make it 70.

And if you were a Kiwi you'd prefer something in between??????

 

[TeeJay Blue]

Yep their list is in quite a bad way.

I Like listening to them deny this. They just can't accept the truth.

To only be percentage in front of a rebuilding team that played without some of their important players for half of the season says a lot about where they are at. No star factor. A relatively unattractive midfield. No pillars.

The only decent players I can think of that look to be in their next period of dominance are Brown, McDonald and Atley. Maybe Cunnington and Ziebell but they don't strike me as threatening players when you compare them to other teams and their stars.

 

[1981]

Been thinking about the Gibbs situation.

10 on its own isn't enough because of the weakness of this draft. There's no guarantee at all whoever we take at 10 will be an adequate replacement for Gibbs.

Now the papers say we asked for two first rounders and a player last year . That's an ambit claim surely.

The real target would be two first rounders.

So would Adel give us 10 (Lever) and 18? I'm not sure they would.

But Lever is worth more than 10.

If Melb somehow gave Adel a sweetener then that might just keep Adel happy.

Melb give Adel 10 and 28.
Adel give Melb Lever.
Carl give Adel Gibbs.
Adel give Carl 10 and 18.
Adel keep 28.

Only thing that doesnt stack up under the above is Gibbs is worth more than Lever. So maybe Carl throw something Adels way. Say our third rounder but that's not worth much.

 

[SkyhorseTamer]

Been thinking about the Gibbs situation.

10 on its own isn't enough because of the weakness of this draft. There's no guarantee at all whoever we take at 10 will be an adequate replacement for Gibbs.

Now the papers say we asked for two first rounders and a player last year . That's an ambit claim surely.

The real target would be two first rounders.

So would Adel give us 10 (Lever) and 18? I'm not sure they would.

But Lever is worth more than 10.

If Melb somehow gave Adel a sweetener then that might just keep Adel happy.

Melb give Adel 10 and 28.
Adel give Melb Lever.
Carl give Adel Gibbs.
Adel give Carl 10 and 18.
Adel keep 28.

Only thing that doesnt stack up under the above is Gibbs is worth more than Lever. So maybe Carl throw something Adels way. Say our third rounder but that's not worth much.

If that trade is what Sos and Carlton request, then a deal wont get done. Adelaide won't give up more than what they get for Lever. Regardless of whether they win the comp or not.

 

[Sharks On A Plane]

Been thinking about the Gibbs situation.

10 on its own isn't enough because of the weakness of this draft. There's no guarantee at all whoever we take at 10 will be an adequate replacement for Gibbs.

Now the papers say we asked for two first rounders and a player last year . That's an ambit claim surely.

The real target would be two first rounders.

So would Adel give us 10 (Lever) and 18? I'm not sure they would.

But Lever is worth more than 10.

If Melb somehow gave Adel a sweetener then that might just keep Adel happy.

Melb give Adel 10 and 28.
Adel give Melb Lever.
Carl give Adel Gibbs.
Adel give Carl 10 and 18.
Adel keep 28.

Only thing that doesnt stack up under the above is Gibbs is worth more than Lever. So maybe Carl throw something Adels way. Say our third rounder but that's not worth much.

Wut? Gibbs is not worth more than Lever.

And sorry to tell you but Adelaide won't be giving us 10 for Gibbs, let alone both 10 and 18.

 

[My name geoff]

Because we want to be stocked with young talent 18-20yo x about 10-12 ready push up as the older guys get pushed out for the next tilt.

We dont want to be one and done.

We want sustained success with young quality coming through for repeat flag tilts. I think this is achieveable but our pacients will be test before our first real go at it.

I don't understand.

How does trading one pick 3 (say it's Rayner) and managing to turn that into Stringer, Cameron, Kennedy (for example) negatively effect this strategy? It enhances it!

These guys are 20, 22 and 23 years of age. All 3 may end up being as good, maybe better than Rayner.

The advantage of this strategy is that we can build our side quicker at the expense of the 2027 season where we may end up with a couple of extra retirements.

We get the players in who make us a strong lineup in 2018 and a legitimate threat in 2019 makes signing players etc a much easier task and attracting additional talent easier also.

 

[Pafloyul]

And rush the rebuild?

Teams don't win flags with a list mostly made up of 24 year old KPP's and 22/23 year old mids.

I like your sense of urgency but fear impatience would bring us undone.

To be fair, you can be against jumping the gun (as I am) and still hold out hope that we'll be ready to challenge at about 2021. The key is being pro-active without underselling the need to keep bringing quality youngsters in. The truth is, we'll be ready when we are ready and we haven't reached the make-or-break point just yet. A few on here are getting a bit excited.

 

[Pafloyul]

I don't understand.

How does trading one pick 3 (say it's Rayner) and managing to turn that into Stringer, Cameron, Kennedy (for example) negatively effect this strategy? It enhances it!

These guys are 20, 22 and 23 years of age. All 3 may end up being as good, maybe better than Rayner.

The advantage of this strategy is that we can build our side quicker at the expense of the 2027 season where we may end up with a couple of extra retirements.

We get the players in who make us a strong lineup in 2018 and a legitimate threat in 2019 makes signing players etc a much easier task and attracting additional talent easier also.

A; you are bringing up an arguably fanciful scenario to achieve the trade (the trading of pick 3 for picks 7 and 8), a scenario which in itself could raise a truckload of different possibilities which you are conveniently failing to consider. B; you keep changing the names of the players coming our way and, C; we could trade in one or two of those players without declaring 'to hell with pick 3'. I say you are definitely itching for some short term success at the possible expense of 'the big one'.

 

[My name geoff]

A; you are bringing up an arguably fanciful scenario to achieve the trade (the trading of pick 3 for picks 7 and 8), a scenario which in itself could raise a truckload of different possibilities which you are conveniently failing to consider. B; you keep changing the names of the players coming our way and, C; we could trade in one or two of those players without declaring 'to hell with pick 3'. I say you are definitely itching for some short term success at the possible expense of 'the big one'.

A: how am I 'failing to consider' the possibilities? I'm stating that if we were to go down this path, if it was possible, I would favour it over using pick 3 at the draft. People are saying that this path would be less favourable to going to the draft. It doesn't matter if the proposed trade is possible or not, we are debating if it would be a better strategy than going to the draft or not.

B: We're discussing different strategies, what could work, what won't etc

C: lol you are wrong.
I am thinking about what is the best way to maximise what we have to ensure we give ourselves the best opportunity at becoming the powerhouse we deserve to be. At some point trading picks for players makes sense. I think this year with two clubs holding multiple first round picks, I think it makes sense to trade our pick 3 to maximise its value to us.

 

[Penetrator]

Couple of players for the swans that we might look at.James Rose and Daniel Robinson.Both play that mid-forward type role.

Would prefer to be looking at Jordan Dawson from the swans. Big bodied midfielder that gets plenty of the ball and kicks goals. 38 goals from 15 games in the Neafl this year. 20 years old in his second season with 1 AFL game so far.

http://www.aflplayerratings.com.au/Ratings/Player/119721/Jordan-DAWSON