Analysis 2017 List Management Discussion Part II

[Neadsy83]

Also, I have been told we have tabled (pick 1/2, Our 2018 1st & Levi compo pick for Kelly and Whitfield/Hopper. If GWS budge, expect this done in a heartbeat otherwise we may have to fight this out to the end

Thanks for the info but I don't like it! It's way too much in our position. Would rather go to the draft and try to get Hopper with a later pick.

We can try again next year for Whitfield using our 2019 1st. I highly doubt SOS would offer this in a trade anyway...

 

[HARKER]

It's really not unfair. Slightly overs, yes. Just need to look at the players available at those likely picks vs the benefits/pitfalls of getting 23yos in.
Can the club cope with another 3yrs of bottom 4?
Huge decisions. No easy answer. Positives and negatives in both camps.
It's certainly a fork in the road.

No club can afford to 'float' around the bottom of the table for too long and certainly not us.
MLG knows this, Trigg knows this and if SOS didn't know early on, he'd know it by now.

Some supporters may say they can wait, but why wait and see when we should be doing something....for memberships, sponsorships, supporters etc.

 

[F_therest]

It's really not unfair. Slightly overs, yes. Just need to look at the players available at those likely picks vs the benefits/pitfalls of getting 23yos in.

Does it raise our ladder position too quickly? (Therefore potentially robbing us of greater depth in the long term)
Vs risk of drafting unknown quantities and potential to stay rooted to the bottom for a couple more years.

Can the club cope with another 3yrs of bottom 4?

Huge decisions. No easy answer. Positives and negatives in both camps.

It's certainly a fork in the road.

From the two scenarios you just put out I think it's pretty clear we should do the trade to bolster our midfield.

The whole notion of rising too quickly is bullocks as a winning culture and good environment makes a good team and develops players, not how high your draft picks are. Look at Sydney constantly able to turn late picks into good players like papley, rampe, Smith, Grundy, Parker etc

Another few years at the bottom could hurt the new generation though and put pressure on Bolton and the club.

Moreso than ever before is it better to just be a good club and keep topping up...Sydney, Geelong and hawthorn keep staying up the top because they have a winning culture. Hawthorn down a bit but already bouncing back.

 

[therubbernub]

What many of us seems to be forgetting is the small matter of GWS letting 2 (or 3) highly rated, young midfielders go at once. After already losing Adams and Treloar in recent years, they won't let this slide - although if SOS has a massive brain fart and gives us what would be 3 x first rounders (no way in hell) then GWS may bite. Just cannot see them letting go of more than 1 of Kelly, Hopper or Whitfield.

Understand your point, but it may be that GWS feel that they are a bit one dimensional with so many top line midfielders and would maybe like someone to replace stevie J eg Rayner and others to add a bit more bite and flair around the ground. They have lots of silky runners, but they dont have the mercurial types

 

[therubbernub]

It's really not unfair. Slightly overs, yes. Just need to look at the players available at those likely picks vs the benefits/pitfalls of getting 23yos in.

Does it raise our ladder position too quickly? (Therefore potentially robbing us of greater depth in the long term)
Vs risk of drafting unknown quantities and potential to stay rooted to the bottom for a couple more years.

Can the club cope with another 3yrs of bottom 4?

Huge decisions. No easy answer. Positives and negatives in both camps.

It's certainly a fork in the road.

I really dont think that BB and SOS are thinking that way. They are getting impatient

 

[HARKER]

I'd take the deal. Club wants to play finals sooner than later.
Two quality mids which we would have targeted over the next two drafts anyway who can play rnd 1 next year versus two draftees who may or may not be game ready spread over the next two drafts.
Pretty sure Bolts would want to be pushing towards the 8 next year and sitting inside it in 2019.

His job and his health rely on it.
Forget this notion of a slow, slow approach. It's full steam ahead.,

 

[Keyza]

In regards to Gibbs:

The Crows according to reports are paying 100% of the cap, hence the reason they supposedly offered pathetic contracts to Lever and Gov. Meaning that one or both will have to be traded for them to make a play for Gibbs. Cameron might come in to play here too.

Will they be asking us to pay his contract? If yes, like last year the cost is 2 X 1st round picks.

Can you imagine trading out, young, exciting players and bringing in a guy who is 29.

Then you have to ask how they had planned to fit Gibbs into their salary cap if the deal had gone through. From memory it was really good money.

 

[rp84]

No club can afford to 'float' around the bottom of the table for too long and certainly not us.
MLG knows this, Trigg knows this and if SOS didn't know early on, he'd know it by now.

Some supporters may say they can wait, but why wait and see when we should be doing something....for memberships, sponsorships, supporters etc.

Agreed

 

[Blue since 72]

His job and his health rely on it.
Forget this notion of a slow, slow approach. It's full steam ahead.,

Yep

 

[Cringle]

Gibbs, Cripps, Kelly, Murphy, Whitfield, Petrevski-Seton, ECurnow and Cuningham.

Actually might have depth in the midfield whaaaaat

 

[Keyza]

Tigers will now be good to deal with as well.

Balme is a very smart operator and will get deals done quite quickly.

Note how early the Vickery, Prestia, Caddy and Nankervis deals were all done last year.

Expect Levi deal to be knocked over very quickly if Tigers are in play.

Knowing how Balme hates the AFL it would not surprise me if he works with SOS to set up Levi's initial contract to give Blues maximum compo - he knows SOS would "scratch his back" if the roles were reversed.

Levi's final contract can be renegotiated later - remember the "confusion" over how many years Hawks signed Vickery for!!

Vickery was a free agent not a trade.
A free agent's contract can be renegotiated later but the initial contract is what is included in the salary cap. The AFL determines any compo based on these contracts so the AFL will not just allow clubs to change them later. Not so easy to do.

 

[rp84]

From the two scenarios you just put out I think it's pretty clear we should do the trade to bolster our midfield.

The whole notion of rising too quickly is bullocks as a winning culture and good environment makes a good team and develops players, not how high your draft picks are. Look at Sydney constantly able to turn late picks into good players like papley, rampe, Smith, Grundy, Parker etc

Another few years at the bottom could hurt the new generation though and put pressure on Bolton and the club.

Moreso than ever before is it better to just be a good club and keep topping up...Sydney, Geelong and hawthorn keep staying up the top because they have a winning culture. Hawthorn down a bit but already bouncing back.

I tend to agree. Two gun mids at the same age as our other gun mid is worth much more to me than 2 top 3 picks (who's potential is realistically only as high as kelly/hopper anyway). and pick 18-20. Chances of pick 18-20 being any more than an ok are 50/50 at best).

The added bonus to the club if starting to win a bit more and the ability to play a quicker game due to finally having the cattle to do so will be significant.

 

[LordLucifer]

If push came to shove and there's 5 minutes to go in the trade period and GWS aren't budging...to be honest I'd do it.

We are just in such desperate need for quality young midfielders to take the load off the senior players and kids in their first year.

It's not far off...rating Kelly at about pick 2 and 19 then Hopper at pick 8.

At the end of the day it would almost instantly fix our midfield and draft picks are still a gamble that could easily be busts.

It would also signal Carlton as a team on the rise and a destination club once again if we nabbed both.

Desperate people make desperate decisions with a higher rate of error.

Maybe the smarter thing to do is just stick to the original plan because "slow and steady wins the race".

 

[Mr_Plow]

So, I've calmed down a bit.
Still think pick 1, pick 5 and pick 18 is perhaps a little much for Kelly and Whitfield.

But if we get both of these guys, we'd be pretty happy with our outside run for 10 years.

We'd still be lacking in the inside midfielder department. Hopper makes too much sense.

Cripps
Kelly
SPS
Whitfield

That's a deadly top 4.

With Cuningham, Fisher, Williamson + others rotating through.

 

[Cringle]

It does make sense though.

You'd hope to draft a Kelly and Whitfield with those two picks in the top ~3. The cost of actually nailing both is, I guess, the additional pick 18-20.

 

[passmark]

Another article in the copy of Inside Football that I picked up in Melbourne was "Dominant Duo Set For Draft" by Chris Pike writing about the WAFL.

He then named Tim Kelly & Haiden Schloithe from South Fremantle as 'prime examples of the potential advantages of raising the draft age'. Sloithe is 23yo and is averaging 30.7 disposals per game whilst Kelly is at 28.2, both are strong chances in the Sandover too.

I'm sure there are better judges at our club to know if they are worth bringing onto the playing list but based on the raw figures, they seem like they are well suited.

Haiden Schloithe is probably one of the most dominant players in the WAFL, he's also very aggressive. He ain't quick but does most things well. I reckon he'd be an upgrade on Graham, but I think there's a dozen WAFL players better than Graham.

He's been on a list before so he knows whats up, but I'm not convinced he'd make it because I don't think he's close to as good as Menagola who was an absolute standout at WAFL and has become pretty good at the next level.

 

[Neadsy83]

Remembering Whitfield is contracted so it's more likely to be Kelly & Hopper, I think it's overs considering we may have pick 1!

 

[HARKER]

This is still my ideal trade:

IN: Kelly & Hopper
OUT: Next years 1st, Casboult compo & Marc Murphy

 

[PoultryinMotion]

That is EXACTLY what I thought when the rumours of Sicily to Carlton started circulating.
SOS might be a 'top bloke' but I dare suspect there may have been some last second Gent's agreement made with the Omeara deal. Considering the hardball SOS is playing with Gibbs, I doubt very much his rescue of the Omeara/Hawthorn trade was generosity...

I know I said this months ago but dont rule out the Hawks being keen on Casboult either - The Vickery role player they didn't get from Vickery perhaps. Might make a Sicily trade a real possibility. Sicily plus another for Casboult and a late pick.

 

[katmanblue]

Pick 1 or 2 plus pick 18 plus most likely a top 5 pick in 2018 for Kelly and one of the others!
Sorry but my opinion is we are being bent over.
If it's for Kelly, Whitfield AND Hopper, then that's worth considering.

What about Kelly Hopper Smith?

On SM-N920I using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[LordLucifer]

Even if it was all three, I'd want another player we can put in our 22 at that price given Hopper and Kelly are out of contract.

Whitfield is overrated and closer to a salary dump than a top 10 pick.

Bit harsh on Whitfield but you are correct in part that he isn't in the 'Elite' or 'A Grade' categories, neither is Hopper yet.

The asking price for Kelly starts at two firsts, Hopper is believed to bought with a pick somewhere in the 15-20 range & Whitfield may be in the 25-30 range IMO.

Even though I believe the Kelly price will end up being a little higher, based on those assumptions above, there is a fair bit at risk here if we were to go "all in" for those three.

Keep the firsts from this year and next, give GWS the compo pick we get if Casboult bolts (hopefully somewhere around 18-20) for Hopper and leave the other two chaps where they are.

Get to the draft and snag some more quality youth.

 

[Keyza]

From the two scenarios you just put out I think it's pretty clear we should do the trade to bolster our midfield.

The whole notion of rising too quickly is bullocks as a winning culture and good environment makes a good team and develops players, not how high your draft picks are. Look at Sydney constantly able to turn late picks into good players like papley, rampe, Smith, Grundy, Parker etc

Another few years at the bottom could hurt the new generation though and put pressure on Bolton and the club.

Moreso than ever before is it better to just be a good club and keep topping up...Sydney, Geelong and hawthorn keep staying up the top because they have a winning culture. Hawthorn down a bit but already bouncing back.

You make some good points. We cannot afford to stay down the bottom for much longer.
We already are struggling with membership numbers and we will have lost an entire generation of supporters with us being down for so long.
Player retention will become an even bigger issue as will attracting players to our club.
We all agree we needed a rebuild but we have to start winning games soon.
Allowing our good players to continue to leave and not putting up much of a fight to retain them is not the answer either.

 

[LordLucifer]

This is still my ideal trade:

IN: Kelly & Hopper
OUT: Next years 1st, Casboult compo & Marc Murphy

I'm sure that post will go down well here.

 

[rp84]

Desperate people make desperate decisions with a higher rate of error.

Maybe the smarter thing to do is just stick to the original plan because "slow and steady wins the race".

Does it?

Seems like hitting on two drafts and then topping up with guns has won most races in the last few years

 

[HARKER]

I'm sure that post will go down well here.

I don't care as it makes sense to me.
GWS want players and maybe they'd be happy to take our firsts off us, if they had senior players lined up from elsewhere.

If we are to be dealing with GWS, don't bank on anything happening in the first few days.
Reckon SOS would be happy to wait until the 11th hour.......again.