Analysis 2017 List Management Discussion Part II

[HARKER]

Harker, interested to know why you think we have been targeting lynch? Good news if true

No direct insight.

We know SOS loves his KPF's, so why not aim for one of the best?
We've parked away two years of savings, pretty much signed up all the 'must-have' players and now will have an extra 2 mil on top of that to put into place the last piece of the puzzle.

All indications point here to me, but I may be way off.

 

[ITCHY EYEBALLS]

No direct insight.

We know SOS loves his KPF's, so why not aim for one of the best?
We've parked away two years of savings, pretty much signed up all the 'must-have' players and now will have an extra 2 mil on top of that to put into place the last piece of the puzzle.

All indications point here to me, but I may be way off.

I'm Driving the TL bus and I like your thinking, but, for reasons which I'll keep to myself, I would be extremely surprised if he came to us.
If he leaves GC, I think the pressure on him to go elsewhere would be hard for us to compete with.
I may also be totally wrong

 

[DangerousD]

More likely than next year's because they'll probably see us as rising up the ladder that year. I don't quite buy it and I'm thinking pick five or six in next years draft might turn out more valuable to us.

I think they will want both, with other picks and players coming back. They have two picks in the 20's at the moment and will be desperate to get in the top 5 and up the order next year.

Im not scared of downgrading picks when i trust the recruiter/recruitment team.
With players like Powell-Pepper, Parfit and Fisher taken in the 20's last draft, makes a 2018 1st for Hopper and GWS 1st back seem like a good deal to me.

 

[DangerousD]

The idea of being able to sign a FA this year and keep all of our draft picks is still very appealing.

 

[RoyalParade]

If we think we are going to get Tom Lynch and Ben Silvagni then where does that leave Mckay? May as well trade him now if we are going to throw $1.1 million plus at a FA KPF.
Agree, hopefully keep Gibbs.
Agree, go after Kelly and Hopper (disagree Murphy will be apart of it)
Agree, Cas will go
Agree with the sole Cap and VC picks but mine are swapped.

With GWS out of the 1st round and having 2 picks in the mid 20's, i see them wanting an early pick this year and next as part of any trades that come about.

No direct insight.

We know SOS loves his KPF's, so why not aim for one of the best?
We've parked away two years of savings, pretty much signed up all the 'must-have' players and now will have an extra 2 mil on top of that to put into place the last piece of the puzzle.

All indications point here to me, but I may be way off.

Interesting.

Let's say that this is true.

However we have invested heavily in mckay, and kerr is promising. There is also the possibility of another silvagni. Where does it leave them?

My bet is sos will build the midfield, to enable more frequent and better quality forward 50 entries. Kelly may be part of that, but my guess is fyfe is still well in play....

 

[Jimmae]

Downie has give the game away due to depression I believe.

Yup, what I'm saying is he'll obviously drop off the their list.

 

[GapInIkonPark]

SOS is a big ticket item who thinks on a big scale allowing us to follow paths that may not have been possible through previous regimes.
Not all his ideas will fall into place, but if you're thinking big, you're planning big and planning early and somehow you get 'luckier' along the way.
Now who knows what can and will come about from here until then, but if all the pieces were made to fall into place and along with good development, we may have something like this to open up the 2019 season:

Byrne Jones Plowman
Docherty Marchbank Wiiliamson

Kreuzer Hopper Gibbs
Cuningham Cripps Kelly

SPS Weitering CCurnow
Silvagni Lynch Pickett

ECurnow, Fisher, 2017 #3, McKay, Macreadie, Ben Silvagni

Not one plodder there in a 26 man squad and enough tricks for us wanting to go to games for the excitement.

Shiel FA 2019.

If we get Kelly and Lynch FA 2018, I think Shiel will we banging multiple doors down to come to us.
# DestinationClub.

 

[RoyalParade]

The idea of being able to sign a FA this year and keep all of our draft picks is still very appealing.

I agree. Not sure if its coincidence or not, but the fyfe talk ceased once kelly came firmly into the frame. Seems convenient?

 

[HereComesJuddy]

Not a fan of letting Murphy go HARKER But I see the benefit in it so I'll play along.

2017
We trade Gibbs to Adelaide for their pick for McGovern ?12 and their first ?16 and shuffling around picks in later rounds in their favour.

We trade Murphy, pick 4, pick 12 and pick 16 to gws for Kelly, Hopper and Whitfield.

We sign Dusty as a Free Agent.

2018
Take lynch as a Free Agent
Hit the draft

2019
Take Shiel as a Free Agent
Hit the draft

So come season 2020. Our team could look something like this:

Byrne Jones Plowman
Docherty Marchbank Wiiliamson

Kreuzer Hopper Whitfield
Shiel Cripps Kelly

SPS Weitering CCurnow
Silvagni Lynch Martin

ECurnow, Fisher, 2018 #10, 2019 #18, McKay, Macreadie, Ben Silvagni, Cuningham

 

[HARKER]

No matter what anyone says, SOS, Bolton and the CFC aren't going to slow track this rebuild. Why should they?
In two years time all those young guys will have more than 50 games behind them and an assault on being a key force again, will come into play.

Waiting for a pick a year here and and a couple of picks a year there, aren't going to achieve that for us.
Come 2019 we'll want to be ready to go.

 

[Metalcrusher]

No matter what anyone says, SOS, Bolton and the CFC aren't going to slow track this rebuild. Why should they?
In two years time all those young guys will have more than 50 games behind them and an assault on being a key force again, will come into play.

Waiting for a pick a year here and and a couple of picks a year there, aren't going to achieve that for us.
Come 2019 we'll want to be ready to go.

I Think Bolts and the Club (personal opinion only), would want to be sitting 50/50 on the ledger next year ...... in the win/loss column .... not that we are defined by wins and losses of course........

 

[Arr0w]

No matter what anyone says, SOS, Bolton and the CFC aren't going to slow track this rebuild. Why should they?
In two years time all those young guys will have more than 50 games behind them and an assault on being a key force again, will come into play.

Waiting for a pick a year here and and a couple of picks a year there, aren't going to achieve that for us.
Come 2019 we'll want to be ready to go.

Great work Harks, good to have people throwing around different ideas, it's healthy.

I agree with you, SOS & Co will continue to be aggressive in all aspects of list management, although IMHO not to the determent of continuing to bring in top end talented kids, SOS will ensure, we continue to have a presence early in the draft.

If we take Hawthorn as an example, they benefited from starting their rebuild before the expansion clubs, although remained in the 1st round of the draft.

2004 Draft Roughy, Buddy, Lewis

Over the next 2 years, they had the courage to let players go, while having a presence in the draft. Traded out:

2005 - Hays #18, Lonie #14
2006 - Everitt #33

2007 & 8 They consolidated, no trades, but took best available again in the draft (1 being Dew)

Then the aggression really started in 2009

In Gibson, Burgoyne
Out McGlynn, Kennedy Williams

Each year after that they added a FA/traded in, at least one experienced player

2010- Hale
2011 - Gunston
2012 - Lake
2013 - McEvoy
2014 - Frawley

Melbourne have gone down a similar road. When Roos arrived, end of 2013, they traded aggressively, but always had an early presence in the Draft. Admittedly their list was better than Hawthorn's, so became competitive quickly.

SOS will be aggressive, but will continue to have early selections in the draft, at least over the next couple of years. If the "offer is too good to refuse", then we "may" trade out 1st round picks, but I doubt it.

 

[PoultryinMotion]

Not a fan of letting Murphy go HARKER But I see the benefit in it so I'll play along.

2017
We trade Gibbs to Adelaide for their pick for McGovern ?12 and their first ?16 and shuffling around picks in later rounds in their favour.

We trade Murphy, pick 4, pick 12 and pick 16 to gws for Kelly, Hopper and Whitfield.

We sign Dusty as a Free Agent.

2018
Take lynch as a Free Agent
Hit the draft

2019
Take Shiel as a Free Agent
Hit the draft

So come season 2020. Our team could look something like this:

Byrne Jones Plowman
Docherty Marchbank Wiiliamson

Kreuzer Hopper Whitfield
Shiel Cripps Kelly

SPS Weitering CCurnow
Silvagni Lynch Martin

ECurnow, Fisher, 2018 #10, 2019 #18, McKay, Macreadie, Ben Silvagni, Cuningham

Gotta love that pipedream HCJ! If you and SOS can get that happening, would we look at trading out Casboult in 2017 also (he doesnt appear on your list) and bringing in more from the GWS factory. Eg Another small or mid sized forward(Greene as a Wright type upgrade), small to mid defender (Wilson for Simpson replacement) or even a ruckman(Lobb to cover/prolong Kreuzer)? I would like to see a key forward come in this year too if you can manage that also

 

[james Dean]

Not a fan of letting Murphy go HARKER But I see the benefit in it so I'll play along.

2017
We trade Gibbs to Adelaide for their pick for McGovern ?12 and their first ?16 and shuffling around picks in later rounds in their favour.

We trade Murphy, pick 4, pick 12 and pick 16 to gws for Kelly, Hopper and Whitfield.

We sign Dusty as a Free Agent.

2018
Take lynch as a Free Agent
Hit the draft

2019
Take Shiel as a Free Agent
Hit the draft

So come season 2020. Our team could look something like this:

Byrne Jones Plowman
Docherty Marchbank Wiiliamson

Kreuzer Hopper Whitfield
Shiel Cripps Kelly

SPS Weitering CCurnow
Silvagni Lynch Martin

ECurnow, Fisher, 2018 #10, 2019 #18, McKay, Macreadie, Ben Silvagni, Cuningham

This is not even borderline delusional, it is purely delusional.

 

[thylacine60]

seriously, some of these hair-brained "what about this overly complicated hail-mary not ever going to happen" trade scenarios are plain embarrassing

 

[Blue__Balls]

If we think we are going to get Tom Lynch and Ben Silvagni then where does that leave Mckay? May as well trade him now if we are going to throw $1.1 million plus at a FA KPF.

It leaves McKay with a four year head start on BSOS.

By the time Ben is ready for senior footy (2021 would be the assumption, he'd have two years development by then) Harry will hopefully have 50+ senior games under his belt. If we continue to develop him properly, he should also start to spend some time in the ruck by that stage - and it wouldn't surprise me if we have plans to move him into the ruck down the track (ala Tippett) given he has the height, jump and is reasonably clean at ground level to follow up.

By 2021 we could have Lynch and BSOS holding down FF and CHF, with McKay spending 60-70% time in the ruck and pushing forward to kick goals like Kreuz is doing right now.

 

[ShanDog]

seriously, some of these hair-brained "what about this overly complicated hail-mary not ever going to happen" trade scenarios are plain embarrassing

Like:

ADEL IN: Menzel
ADEL OUT: Pick 28, Kerridge

GWS IN: Pick 28
GWS OUT: Phillips, Sumner, Lamb, Plowman

CAR IN: Phillips, Sumner, Lamb, Plowman, Kerridge
CAR OUT: Menzel

?

 

[thylacine60]

like that was ever going to happen...........

 

[Stamos]

Like:

ADEL IN: Menzel
ADEL OUT: Pick 28, Kerridge

GWS IN: Pick 28
GWS OUT: Phillips, Sumner, Lamb, Plowman

CAR IN: Phillips, Sumner, Lamb, Plowman, Kerridge
CAR OUT: Menzel

?

You're forgetting Henderson, Geelong's future 1st, GWS' #8

 

[Arr0w]

Like:

CATS IN: Henderson
CATS OUT: 1st Round 2016

ADEL IN: Menzel
ADEL OUT: Pick 28, Kerridge

GWS IN: Pick 28, 77, 95, Cats 1st 2016
GWS OUT: Phillips, Sumner, Lamb, Plowman, Pick 8 (Harry McKay

CAR IN: Phillips, Sumner, Lamb, Plowman, Kerridge, McKay
CAR OUT: Menzel , Henderson

?

Couple amendments, we still did very well.

Having said that, none of the inclusions are in the calibre of the players that are being discussed at the moment.

 

[Azul]

You're forgetting Henderson, Geelong's future 1st, GWS' #8

Fevola, the gift that keeps on giving.

Not bad for pick 38 in 1998.

 

[No1Suspect]

Have to say im loving that in everyones 'team could be in 2020' etc. Jones is fullback.

 

[Arr0w]

Fevola, the gift that keeps on giving.

Not bad for pick 38 in 1998.

I hope no one forgets this theory!!

Until we are ready to strike, continue to trade out older players of value, that won't be part of our next flag, which will generate more quality kids/20-23 year olds

 

[bludrew79]

Ill trade you a 24yo big contested ball midfileder who only needs to work on his kicking and endurance (both fixable) Ill throw in a HIGH 2nd round and a 3rd...

All i want is a pick in the 8-12 range and a 4th rounder

 

[Bag of Nuts]

6 out of the 22 players in footyprophet.com's Rising Star eligible best 22.