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Analysis 2017 List Management Discussion Part II
- Thread starter BrisbaneCFC
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- Oct 7, 2014
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well now I know where my kids get it (especially in their reports that we just got)
my listening skills need attention
I forgot that we can't trade Cas and didn't have to trade for Dusty....
ok - back to the Kelly talk.
PS - Massive NO to Sicily... yuk.
my listening skills need attention
I forgot that we can't trade Cas and didn't have to trade for Dusty....ok - back to the Kelly talk.
PS - Massive NO to Sicily... yuk.
The result doesnt influence my thinking on individual performances . In fact if he had of kicked a couple in the gc game instead of completely stuffing his opportunities he would have been lauded after the game for a brilliant game . In the end i thought he was very serviceable .Theres a fine line with Levi where his kicking completely tips people over the line and against him rightly or wrongly .
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Yep covered that in another post saying good luck to him if he earns a better more lucrative contract elsewhere . Have also stated that have we all not been watching the past decade and more of football . And seeing the pathetic conversion rate in particular set shot goalkicking that is the one area of the game that has not improved from yesteryear ?
However that does not excuse levis goalkicking so whatever happens happens .
To me whether levi or gibbs leave is irrelevant to the bigger picture of us winning premierships going forward . Compared to continued good recruiting whatever the pick or trade may be together with solid development over an extended period .
Given what Hawthorn was willing to pay for Vickery (netted Richmond pick 26), we could be very pleasantly surprised as to what someone will pay for Casboult. Id argue that he's quite a bit better than Vickery & he could be hitting his straps at the right time for us to get max profit for him.
I wouldn't be surprised if we see a little evolution in our trading strategy this year, where we start packaging this years picks (say 2 earlyish second round) to pick up future picks (mid 1st) for next year.
Casboult has currency and could be used quite effectively in a grander plan- SOS has been on the fore front of list strategy and maximizing value, i trust that there's a few tricks up his sleeve we haven't seen yet
I wouldn't be surprised if we see a little evolution in our trading strategy this year, where we start packaging this years picks (say 2 earlyish second round) to pick up future picks (mid 1st) for next year.
Casboult has currency and could be used quite effectively in a grander plan- SOS has been on the fore front of list strategy and maximizing value, i trust that there's a few tricks up his sleeve we haven't seen yet
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It is possible. We already have the game to take it up to most sides. Look at the amazing, skilled, tough way we went about it, in the first quarter v gold coast. They had no answers and we should have been up by 6-7 goals.
Then our intensity dropped off and they slowly got back into it.
If we put in a 4 quarter effort like Q1 we can roll anyone.
Went past the Hawthorn guys at the airport this morning...he does have a bad guy in a Bond film vibe about him.
thylacine60
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still can't see it, nubster.......we aspire to be playing at our best to win a flag one day - would that be playing better than we are?
Jimmae
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You're excluding the possibility of people deluding themselves that you intended to do something with a piece of play.
So who are we linked/talked about being linked to, this week:
Hopper:...Still the player that makes most sense
Kelly: ......Hard to see this unless we offer a premium player to GWS along with a pick.
Balic: ......Maybe.
Sicily: .....Maybe, but just for chips.
Tippett: ..Lots would have to happen, for us to adopt Tippett.
Who's dropped off: Schache (re-signed), Lever (We wouldn't match what he may get), May (Not for us and will likely sign on).
Hopper:...Still the player that makes most sense
Kelly: ......Hard to see this unless we offer a premium player to GWS along with a pick.
Balic: ......Maybe.
Sicily: .....Maybe, but just for chips.
Tippett: ..Lots would have to happen, for us to adopt Tippett.
Who's dropped off: Schache (re-signed), Lever (We wouldn't match what he may get), May (Not for us and will likely sign on).
- Mar 26, 2015
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Looks like he might need some thinking music. Can't see us offering more than say 2 years at $400-450k, especially with McKay, Kerr and co hopefully coming on in the next few years.
Thought it may have been a little more.
Still should be enough for a band 3, but a band 2 would be better.
Jimmae
Brownlow Medallist
That's probably not enough for band 3.
Average salary next year will be about $380k, and $500k next year is equivalent to $415k this year.
Band 3 is top 30% for players over 25.
Unfortunately this is probably correct
Thinking music? It would take him 0.012 seconds to decide to walk.
See ya Levi.
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Jimmae
Brownlow Medallist
I'm not precisely sure off the top of my head, but I thought it was enough over $500k that such a deal would be a little frustrating for us. Let's do some estimates:
http://www.afl.com.au/news/2017-03-16/afl-millionaires-club-swells-to-six-players
I can't remember what the agreed upon inflation was for this current season while they negotiated the new CBA, so let's just assume it was 3%, then there's the 20% jump next year.
A straight top 30% then is the top 215 in the league (or so) and above, which in 2016 was somewhere in the $300-400k bracket, namely amongst the top 31 of the 148 listed above. If we can assume it's fairly evenly distributed, then figure is $380k in 2016, or $470k in 2018.
We can safely assume that the over 25 salary pool is higher, and as a result, we can remove the 70 sub-$100k earners to give us a better picture (I doubt there'd even be one player over 25 earning that amount), namely that it becomes the top 11 in that same bracket, or $393k assuming a relatively even distribution.
And that's probably again underestimating the over 25 wage pool, so I'm going to bump it up to a nice round figure of $400k in 2016, which works out to be $495k in 2018 if I'm right about the 2017 increase.
So using what is probably an underestimate, and assuming that the temporary bump this year was only 3%, $500k is right on the line. If the salary bracket doesn't dip that low (likely) and the 2017 bump was higher (possible), then this is a band 4 bid.
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Has anyone tabled out a rule-of-thumb for what compo may be handed out, for what?
Band 1:
Band 2:
Band 3:
Things have changed but weren't Melbourne 'lucky' to get a band one for Frawley?
If we're just a little short on the dollars to trigger a band 3, I'm sure we can work something out.
I AM CARLTON
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- Mar 9, 2014
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If Levi goes it isn't the end of the world but it does put a lot more pressure on Charlie Curnow & McKay.
I've been really impressed with Charlie Curnow, since Weitering went back about 4 weeks ago Charlie has played well as the 2nd tall forward.
I've been really impressed with Charlie Curnow, since Weitering went back about 4 weeks ago Charlie has played well as the 2nd tall forward.
Jimmae
Brownlow Medallist
Band 1: Top 5% of over-25 salaries
Band 2: unsure
Band 3: Top 30% of over-25 salaries
Again, assuming roughly a normal distribution to create these break points, it's probably at most the top 15%, maybe a shade in from that (13%).
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