Analysis 2017 List Management Discussion Part II

[ParapMarkets]

Yeh I can see this happening. Also with Hopper. A club like Essendon and apparently Geelong will be all over him. Every club has money now so I think to get top talent like them you are going to have to pay overs in $. I can see us trading out Gibbs and letting Cas go and hitting the draft.
It would mean we really bottom out next season but we would be able to chase someone like Gaff as a FA next season and Shiel the year after giving us rapid improvement after next year

Gaff would be a good pick up and I believe someone we could poach as a true "free agent", some don't like him but I think he would be a fantastic pick up for free. Shiel the following year (again for free) would be brilliant and gettable.

It's going to be a fascinating offseason that's for sure, I could easily see us hit the draft and save our cash for next year like you mention.

 

[Soapy V]

I think we can all agree Charlie will mostly play forward next year. Its were Bolton knows he will be elite.

I don't agree. Time will tell

 

[Soapy V]

Not concerned about forward line at all. We have a potentially great defence. Get the midfield right and winning good ball and the forward line takes care of itself

 

[Arr0w]

So who exactly is playing forward then? If we dont kick goals we dont win games. Everyone saying Casboult is gone if Charlie is up the ground where are we getting our goals from?

I think Bolton see's Charlie as a forward since Cripps and Ed have been injured he has still used him as a forward even though there has been plenty of opportunities to throw him into the midfield.

This board will always be divided as to what we need first, forwards or midfielders. We have weaknesses in many areas! Charlie will spend periods as a forward & midfielder, think Kouta, Riewoldt. His athleticism and tank will be a weapon when considering the mismatches he can exploit. Harry, Kerr & Casboult (Until it is official he leaves) will be considered stay at home forwards, while Jack being another to play as a 3rd tall

Bolton is already starting to use him more and more through the midfield. It's where they see him and importantly he will be elite

Agreed

Agree but in small stints for mine taking Charlie out of the forwardline too much would be like playing Cripps too much up forward just too important to the structures . Unless of course we get lucky and in a few years Kerr and Bsos Mckay are braining it up forward and we have so many options its a necessity to move someone to the middle more .

Charlie will be given the licence/instructed to move across the ground, to cause the most damage. Example: If we are winning centre clearances, he would remain forward, if the game is an arm wrestle, x-factor (Charlie) would move through the midfield, then out work his opponent forward

 

[Soapy V]

Charlie will be given the licence/instructed to move across the ground, to cause the most damage. Example: If we are winning centre clearances, he would remain forward, if the game is an arm wrestle, x-factor (Charlie) would move through the midfield, then out work his opponent forward

All going well Charlie Cripps Murphy SPS Hopper Balic Cuningham Polson will all rotate through the midfield & forward line. Hard to match up on and kicks lots of goals

 

[PoultryinMotion]

Charlie's attributes will be far too important to be a permanent forward. IMO as he develops, he will spend more time up the field, especially with his elite running ability

You can put your house on this!

 

[Jimmae]

I get all that but I think we're woefully short for big men as Sos has tried to cover other list deficiencies first. If Casboult goes I think he stays as insurance.

We've already re-signed Phillips and have Kerr sitting there too; IMO Gorringe is gone due to his nagging achilles issues.

Either he had a bad day or he can't kick. He hit one target by foot which is unusual for a left footer. Left footer, right hander may be the difference.

He was at full tilit for a few of those. First year back at a decent state level, so his physical condition is pretty impressive.

He's a long shot, but I'd keep him on the list.
Needs to get stronger, but is lightning quick for a big guy.

If the right attitude is in place, I'd keep him for another year, at least.

JGM is only quick in a straight line, though I'll credit him with being more on the ball about when to make a play. Don't see how he survives though.

Blues trade B. Gibbs and pick 37
To Adelaide for pick 9 and pick 17

Not sure about that...

Blues trade pick 9, 17, 2018 first rounder, Casboult compo
To GWS for J. Kelly, J. Hopper, 2018 third rounder

Hell no.

If Casboult delivers band 3 FA compo (pick 18)
that's around about the projected value for Hopper even amongst GWS supporters .
If Hopper , out of contract , nominated CFC that would probably get it done with 7,8,9 out of the equation id imagine .

Band 3 would be pick 20 at this stage. Pick 18 is band 2. Minute difference I know, but important to know where the goal posts are.

What club would be dumb enough to trade picks 5 and 7 for pick 2?

It would take more than that, another late 1st or early 2nd

Bingo. I mentioned Gold Coast as potenitally looking to drive up the order in another post.

2017 Hawthorn 1st + Band 4 compensation pick (Casboult) to GWS for Hopper + GWS 2018 1st

Bryce Gibbs + 2018 3rd to Adelaide for 2017 and 2018 1st round picks

Rayner is th petracca the saints missed out on. I reckon they'd jump at that

Maybe, but they'd be looking at Riewoldt and McCartin, then looking over at Brander, Balta, D.Fogarty, Ballenden and Hayes.

Not sure they'd go for Rayner as a priority for their midfield.

 

[DangerousD]

Ball use of Byrne Williamson Docherty & Weitering out of defence is exciting.

I have no doubt Charlie will be a midfielder in the Kouta/Fyfe type. To good not to. I expect Polson to step up and add Hopper & Balic and it looks good. A fit Cripps and then Pick 2 and it's even better. SPS & Pickett on the wings could really cause some damage.

Not seeing him as a mid, to me he looks like a CHF who could spend a few minutes in the midfield I look at him and still see a body that needs a lot of filling out. Super exciting either way.

 

[LordLucifer]

http://www.canberratimes.com.au/afl...ve-as-rival-clubs-circle-20170809-gxsr5u.html

The management of Carlton spearhead Levi Casboult is expected to ask why the key forward should not be included in the club's top-dozen earners when contract discussions open.

Casboult, off contract this year, is an unrestricted free agent because his salary falls outside of the top 25 per cent of the Blues' highest-paid players, meaning he can walk to the club of his choice.

If he wants to walk then we should not be getting in his way, especially if there are other clubs prepared to pay big money to him.


Please be true.

 

[Arr0w]

http://www.canberratimes.com.au/afl...ve-as-rival-clubs-circle-20170809-gxsr5u.html

If he wants to walk then we should not be getting in his way, especially if there are other clubs prepared to pay big money to him.

Please be true.

http://www.afl.com.au/news/2015-10-...-to-earn-firstround-free-agency-compensation-

Keep in mind the above link is 2 years old and TPP have increased

A summary of where Casboult's offer would need to be, to obtain a compensation pick:

CLUBS will only receive a first-round compensation pick after losing a free agent in 2015 if the player's new contract ranks them among the top five per cent of AFL wage earners aged 25 and older. To put that figure in perspective, a wage that ranks in the top five per cent of players aged 25-plus would put the free agent among the game's top 15 earners.The AFL also explained that if a player's contract offer ranked in the next 10 per cent band then he would command compensation at the end of the first round, the next 15 per cent earned a second-round pick and the next 20 per cent earned a pick at the end of the second round

For us to receive a band 3 compensation, Casboult's offer would need to be in the top 30% of all players, 25 years old and over. Unfortunately if the rumour is true that the Tigers are interested at $500K a year, best we will get is an end of second round pick (Band 4)

Edited $500K

 

[rp84]

http://www.afl.com.au/news/2015-10-...-to-earn-firstround-free-agency-compensation-

Keep in mind the above link is 2 years old and TPP have increased

A summary of where Casboult's offer would need to be, to obtain a compensation pick:

CLUBS will only receive a first-round compensation pick after losing a free agent in 2015 if the player's new contract ranks them among the top five per cent of AFL wage earners aged 25 and older. To put that figure in perspective, a wage that ranks in the top five per cent of players aged 25-plus would put the free agent among the game's top 15 earners.The AFL also explained that if a player's contract offer ranked in the next 10 per cent band then he would command compensation at the end of the first round, the next 15 per cent earned a second-round pick and the next 20 per cent earned a pick at the end of the second round

For us to receive a band 3 compensation, Casboult's offer would need to be in the top 30% of all players, 25 years old and over. Unfortunately if the rumour is true that the Tigers are interested at $400K a year, best we will get is an end of second round pick (Band 4)

Surely it will be more than 400k. We'd keep him at the price purely as a backup ruck. 400k is peanuts these days.

 

[Toddski]

Would not cop a band 4 for losing Casboult.. that would be almost as bad as losing Waite for nothing.

 

[Arr0w]

Surely it will be more than 400k. We'd keep him at the price purely as a backup ruck. 400k is peanuts these days.

Unfortunately we have no say, he is an UFA

 

[Jeremias]

No good?

 

[LordLucifer]

Would not cop a band 4 for losing Casboult.. that would be almost as bad as losing Waite for nothing.

Anything we get in return for Casboult is an absolute bonus. We snagged him at pick gazillion in the rookie draft so we have bought low and will be selling very high.

 

[Jimmae]

No good?

Shade too much for Hopper on the net difference, way too little for Gibbs in the context of this year's draft.

Both of those Adelaide picks will be in the late teens, while I'd prefer not to downgrade such a high pick. Fingers crossed on the Casboult compo being band 3.

It will be interesting to see how aggressive Port and Adelaide are about trying to secure a pick between 10-20, given the scuttlebutt about D.Fogarty trying to tank his value. Can we send Sticks to his house?

 

[Blue__Balls]

http://www.afl.com.au/news/2015-10-...-to-earn-firstround-free-agency-compensation-

Keep in mind the above link is 2 years old and TPP have increased

A summary of where Casboult's offer would need to be, to obtain a compensation pick:

CLUBS will only receive a first-round compensation pick after losing a free agent in 2015 if the player's new contract ranks them among the top five per cent of AFL wage earners aged 25 and older. To put that figure in perspective, a wage that ranks in the top five per cent of players aged 25-plus would put the free agent among the game's top 15 earners.The AFL also explained that if a player's contract offer ranked in the next 10 per cent band then he would command compensation at the end of the first round, the next 15 per cent earned a second-round pick and the next 20 per cent earned a pick at the end of the second round

For us to receive a band 3 compensation, Casboult's offer would need to be in the top 30% of all players, 25 years old and over. Unfortunately if the rumour is true that the Tigers are interested at $400K a year, best we will get is an end of second round pick (Band 4)

Figure doing the rounds is $500k, for starters.

They also take into account length of contract and age, so the dollar figure isn't the only determining factor.

And curious as to how anyone knows what the cut-off is for the top 30% salaries. Haven't seen any reports indicating what that magic number is.

4 years at $500k, for a key forward leaving a bottom two side bereft of experienced forwards. Compares pretty favourably when compared to players like Vickery and Mayne who got slightly more money on shorter contracts, and we're deemed worth Band 3 compensation.

 

[RAPPA]

Unfortunately we have no say, he is an UFA

Ungrateful, freeloading a-hole?

 

[LanceRomance]

http://www.afl.com.au/news/2015-10-...-to-earn-firstround-free-agency-compensation-

Keep in mind the above link is 2 years old and TPP have increased

A summary of where Casboult's offer would need to be, to obtain a compensation pick:

CLUBS will only receive a first-round compensation pick after losing a free agent in 2015 if the player's new contract ranks them among the top five per cent of AFL wage earners aged 25 and older. To put that figure in perspective, a wage that ranks in the top five per cent of players aged 25-plus would put the free agent among the game's top 15 earners.The AFL also explained that if a player's contract offer ranked in the next 10 per cent band then he would command compensation at the end of the first round, the next 15 per cent earned a second-round pick and the next 20 per cent earned a pick at the end of the second round

For us to receive a band 3 compensation, Casboult's offer would need to be in the top 30% of all players, 25 years old and over. Unfortunately if the rumour is true that the Tigers are interested at $400K a year, best we will get is an end of second round pick (Band 4)

No chance he will only get 400k.


Where did that rumour come from?

 

[Blue_Fusion]

No chance he will only get 400k.


Where did that rumour come from?

His imagination.

 

[Kismet]

As much as I've been exasperated by Levi, the many who are calling for him to leave had better be careful what they wish for.

He can be frustrating, but every time I think of our forward line over the next couple of years, I'm concerned about how it will develop.

Harry McKay looks like he will make the grade, and Charlie Curnow is a good contested mark and kick. Jack Silvagni has the makings of a third tall forward, but his kicking still needs a lot of work. The point is they are all still very young, and a solid body would seem essential to allow for their best opportunity to develop.

Casboult may have the potential to play a similar roving key forward role as Earl Spalding did with Kernahan. The Duke was an equally horrendous kick as Levi, but he had a bullocking style to impact contests with either a mark or bring it to the ground for our smaller forwards. I realise the game has changed since the '90's, but this is still an important aspect of forward play.

It may give short term gratification to see Casboult leave, but I wonder if the medium term downside will be too much.

 

[Blue Baggers]

As much as I've been exasperated by Levi, the many who are calling for him to leave had better be careful what they wish for.

He can be frustrating, but every time I think of our forward line over the next couple of years, I'm concerned about how it will develop.

Harry McKay looks like he will make the grade, and Charlie Curnow is a good contested mark and kick. Jack Silvagni has the makings of a third tall forward, but his kicking still needs a lot of work. The point is they are all still very young, and a solid body would seem essential to allow for their best opportunity to develop.

Casboult may have the potential to play a similar roving key forward role as Earl Spalding did with Kernahan. The Duke was an equally horrendous kick as Levi, but he had a bullocking style to impact contests with either a mark or bring it to the ground for our smaller forwards. I realise the game has changed since the '90's, but this is still an important aspect of forward play.

It may give short term gratification to see Casboult leave, but I wonder if the medium term downside will be too much.

I think we will be better without Cas, when he misses from 10-30m blokes drop their heads and also makes us less predictable without 1 key target. Saying that the forwards are only as good as the delivery coming in

 

[Soapy V]

I think we will be better without Cas, when he misses from 10-30m blokes drop their heads and also makes us less predictable without 1 key target. Saying that the forwards are only as good as the delivery coming in

Big issue know is midfield control and defensive pressure inside 50. Smaller more mobile forward lines now work better and are more successful.

Look at how Richmonds forward line is functioning this year. Look at the last 4 flags.

 

[Mr_Plow]

I'm sure we can find someone with a fit mature body in the state leagues that can play a physical role for 1-2 years.

Band 3 for Casboult is a dream come true.

 

[Soapy V]

I'm sure we can find someone with a fit mature body in the state leagues that can play a physical role for 1-2 years.

Band 3 for Casboult is a dream come true.

Rowe