Analysis 2017 List Management Discussion

[Cripps17]

Gone: Lamb Likely survivors: Buckley

Good post but after 15 games last year and being named R1 I'd suggest Lamb is a likely survivor. Buckley is surely gone.

 

[GapInIkonPark]

Sad to feel that Boekhorst will be gone at years end.
He wouldn't have cut it in a game like the one we had last week.
Got another 20 odd kicks on the weekend but nowhere near the impact of the dozen he would have had a couple of years back.
Just doesn't seem to have his heart in things right now. That may change but the damage may be done.

Seems as though we have to go back to the same well and get our 2/3 for 1's with GWS as we can't, nor won't, take on another dozen 18 year olds this year.
There are plenty of heads on the chopping block but at this early stage, I see Jaksch and Buckley surviving.....and right now, I'd like them to.

Can look back on this at years end and without factoring in any trades, but right now:

Gone: Gorringe, Lamb, Armfield, Boekhorst, Gallucci, Graham, Jones, Simpson retired. - 8 players
Fringe: Kerridge, Sumner (unfair, I know), White (although we'll probably keep him for another year) A.Silvagni, Glass-McCasker (although we should keep him), Thomas (not sure why, but wouldn't surprise should he remain for another year although any injury and that may not come about) - 6 players
Likely survivors: Buckley, Jaksch, Rowe (Another year seems likely on the cards) - 3 players

I just haven't seen it in Boekhorst at any stage since we drafted him I am afraid to say Harks.

Jaksch is in the Gone list too IMO.

If Buckley is turning over the ball and getting caught HTB in the Northern Blues this year and when he gets his chance in the Seniors, I am afraid that he will be in the Gone list.

Simpson I think will play on another year or two and Lamb I think will stay for depth, along with Sumner and Smedts. Kerridge stays only because the cull will be so deep. Expect SOS to offer the 1 year contracts like those given to Graham, Buckley and Casboult this year.

Rowe and Casboult stay as key position depth and quoting Jimmae, I would be pissed if they play more than 10 Senior games each in Season 2018.

I would turf Thomas personally but suspect the club will keep him another year.

Too early to call on Palmer. Can't reach the silo with his kicks though. Clogger.

 

[SkyhorseTamer]

I just haven't seen it in Boekhorst at any stage since we drafted him I am afraid to say Harks.

Jaksch is in the Gone list too IMO.

If Buckley is turning over the ball and getting caught HTB in the Northern Blues this year and when he gets his chance in the Seniors, I am afraid that he will be in the Gone list.

Simpson I think will play on another year or two and Lamb I think will stay for depth, along with Sumner and Smedts. Kerridge stays only because the cull will be so deep. Expect SOS to offer the 1 year contracts like those given to Graham, Buckley and Casboult this year.

Rowe and Casboult stay as key position depth and quoting Jimmae, I would be pissed if they play more than 10 Senior games each in Season 2018.

I would turf Thomas personally but suspect the club will keep him another year.

Too early to call on Palmer. Can't reach the silo with his kicks though. Clogger.

Kj is staying. You doing throw away key position depth when there are so many cases of them being later bloomers. He's still really young.

 

[HARKER]

Kj is staying. You doing throw away key position depth when there are so many cases of them being later bloomers. He's still really young.

I put it forward a couple of days back, but Jaksch looks different to me.....by way of body and by way of intent.

If....and when....Gorringe, Jones and Casboult are gone, it may make sense to retain a 22 year old that has taken the right steps forward.
Of course that may change by years end, by for now at least, I've taken Jaksch out from the 'GONE' list.

 

[GapInIkonPark]

So we lose Kruezer possibly Gibbs who both would be on significant contracts hopefully Thomas ditto , maybe Jaksch on a handy $ term Jones yes again , armfield on reasonable money and any other players delisted that are above the minimum wage of draftees coming in . With salary cap going up significantly no FA coming in and draftees coming onto the list on minimum wage to replace all these players that some offers we will be putting to Hopper and Co ? . If the salary cap goes up 20% (dont know if that is correct ) we will have a monumental gap to fill in our TPP taking all that into consideration . Not sure some are thinking this through a little rejigging re front ended contracts to younger players aint going anywhere near meeting the TPP requirements .?

Certainly been mentioned before several pages ago in this thread. The points you make are good.

How deep is the cull going to be? It could easily be 8-10 players, including the higher salaries of Thomas and Jones. If Gibbs goes too and possibly Kreuzer FA, then the salary cap room will be very large.

The question is ... after taking our 6 through the draft and maybe 1-2 rookie upgrades, how are we going to fill the rest of the list spots.

I can't see Martin or Fyfe coming to Carlton.
I can't see Reid leaving Sydney (I would certainly make him an offer).

Not keen on burning draft picks on Schache.

Interested in what SOS might do to get a deal over the line for (with thanks to barass70) Hopper, Kennedy and Smith from GWS and Baltic from Fremantle.

 

[HARKER]

Good post but after 15 games last year and being named R1 I'd suggest Lamb is a likely survivor. Buckley is surely gone.

Where do you think Lamb can play?
He's not a goal-kicker, can't play back and doesn't do midfield.
He may stay but that 300K pay packet won't.

Buckley? Just a feeling.
Could have easily been let go last year and would have had have we not cleared a dozen already, but like Jaksch....there seems to be something different about him this year. We'll see.

 

[GapInIkonPark]

Kj is staying. You doing throw away key position depth when there are so many cases of them being later bloomers. He's still really young.

KJ is not blooming, sprouting, green-shooting, anything-ing.
We are stuck with him because he had the 1 more year left on his contract.

 

[HARKER]

KJ is not blooming, sprouting, green-shooting, anything-ing.
We are stuck with him because he had the 1 more year left on his contract.

Hasn't put a foot wrong so far this year, GP.
Out of contract at years end and the 4th won't be triggered, but I'd bank on him being retained.

 

[GapInIkonPark]

Hasn't put a foot wrong so far this year, GP.
Out of contract at years end and the 4th won't be triggered, but I'd bank on him being retained.

I hope Jaksch proves me wrong.

 

[ShanDog]

Where do you think Lamb can play?
He's not a goal-kicker, can't play back and doesn't do midfield.
He may stay but that 300K pay packet won't.

Buckley? Just a feeling.
Could have easily been let go last year and would have had have we not cleared a dozen already, but like Jaksch....there seems to be something different about him this year. We'll see.

Lamb can be a medium small who spends time in the middle. He has the physical presence to do both. It's just a matter of whether he is good enough to make that spot in the 22 his own when we have a high-performing Wright there. Maybe Thomas' spot?

 

[HARKER]

I hope Jaksch proves me wrong.

I think he will, or at least that he won't be ditched at years end.

Lamb can be a medium small who spends time in the middle. He has the physical presence to do both. It's just a matter of whether he is good enough to make that spot in the 22 his own when we have a high-performing Wright there. Maybe Thomas' spot?

A half forward role? Maybe as that's an area we're lacking...but you have to be able to kick goals and Lamb hasn't to date....Maybe he will.

 

[ShanDog]

I think he will, or at least that he won't be ditched at years end.



A half forward role? Maybe as that's an area we're lacking...but you have to be able to kick goals and Lamb hasn't to date....Maybe he will.

Yeah forward - did a HBF and left that word out.

He has kicked a few goals and looked like he could bag 2-3 at times but hasn't. He isn't alone in that regard though.

 

[Foucault1989]

Lamb is nothing special. He can kick alright but he has no intensity. I question his aerobic capacity to play as a high half forward in modern football and he doesn't have enough tricks to survive as a deeper forward. I say gone. I'd honestly rather keep Graham and Buckley over Lamb. Both have shown a lot more. Hope KJ can make it - I'd give him another year. Bokehurst is gone. Sumner stays but is on the fringe. Gorringe, Jones and Thomas should be gone. Simpson has 1-2 years. Casboult...Perhaps one more. He is only there to shield McKay.

 

[HavUEvaSeenTheRain]

With Bolton now seeming to go into a complete "play the kids" mode I really think this could be our deepest cut yet at the end of the season.
For me my early calls on some borderline players.

Summer: gone. Can't find the ball and doesn't kick goals. As it has been mentioned I hope we try him back because if you can't kick goals then you aren't going to make it as a forward.
Lamb: not up to it and will be 26 next year.
Smelts: if he isn't best 22 by the end of the year he should be gone. He will also turn 26 next year.
Palmer: gone if not best 22 by the end of the season
Thomas: gone if not best 22 by the end of the season
Rowe: will sign a 2 year extension
White: I would delist but I think he will get one more year.
Buckley: 25 next year and not up to it. Gone.
Casboult: a 1 year extension as a backup forward ruck
Kerridge: still contracted. Will stay
Graham: gone
KJ and Boek: gone but if they finish the season strongly still a chance
Jones and Gorringe: gone

If we can pick up Hopper and Kennedy types then we will have enough depth as they will push 2 current best 22 players out along with Kerridge and another top 5 pick.

 

[bmaurizio]

I hope Jaksch proves me wrong.

Patience Baggers, Jaksch will be one of this year's surprise stories give him another 3or 4 games in the 2nds.

 

[Foucault1989]

Question: can Sumner become a midfielder? Or he is nothing more than a flashy small forward?

 

[My name geoff]

I think he will, or at least that he won't be ditched at years end.



A half forward role? Maybe as that's an area we're lacking...but you have to be able to kick goals and Lamb hasn't to date....Maybe he will.

If I recall correctly, Jacksch in his draft year was a third tall behind Daniher and Boyd. He was a very difficult matchup, as his height and marking ability was too much to contain for a third defender. Similar to someone like McGovern at the crows who takes a lot of high marks, but probably wouldn't be anywhere near as effective if he attracted the opp best, or 2nd best defender.

I think we should wait to see what Jacksh plays like in a proper functioning forward line where he can come in and stretch a defence as a third tall behind McKay and Weitering.

Keeping in mind McGovern and Jacksch are the same age and McGovern only debuted in the last year

 

[thylacine60]

sumner's currency seems to have devalued markedly.........

 

[Chasing 17]

Question: can Sumner become a midfielder? Or he is nothing more than a flashy small forward?

He used to be very good in the middle once upon a time.

 

[HARKER]

With Bolton now seeming to go into a complete "play the kids" mode I really think this could be our deepest cut yet at the end of the season.
For me my early calls on some borderline players.

Summer: gone. Can't find the ball and doesn't kick goals. As it has been mentioned I hope we try him back because if you can't kick goals then you aren't going to make it as a forward.
Lamb: not up to it and will be 26 next year.
Smelts: if he isn't best 22 by the end of the year he should be gone. He will also turn 26 next year.
Palmer: gone if not best 22 by the end of the season
Thomas: gone if not best 22 by the end of the season
Rowe: will sign a 2 year extension
White: I would delist but I think he will get one more year.
Buckley: 25 next year and not up to it. Gone.
Casboult: a 1 year extension as a backup forward ruck
Kerridge: still contracted. Will stay
Graham: gone
KJ and Boek: gone but if they finish the season strongly still a chance
Jones and Gorringe: gone

If we can pick up Hopper and Kennedy types then we will have enough depth as they will push 2 current best 22 players out along with Kerridge and another top 5 pick.

You have 11 players gone and that could yet come about.....and you haven't included Armfield nor any rookies.
Moving on players is one part of list management and bringing others in (better ones), is the other.

As things stand we have our 1st rounder (~#3) no second, 3rd rounder (~#45), 4th rounder (~#62) 5th rounder?......and then rookies.
Pretty slim pickings right now and we don't have much currency in players we're prepared to let go.
2+ for ones seem to be on the cards, a quality FA would be great and then the odd trade and a DFA or two.

Not ideal on face value, even if we do use next years first as the bait for getting who we want.
Another big year for SOS and co. Surprise us......

 

[F_therest]

With Bolton now seeming to go into a complete "play the kids" mode I really think this could be our deepest cut yet at the end of the season.
For me my early calls on some borderline players.

Summer: gone. Can't find the ball and doesn't kick goals. As it has been mentioned I hope we try him back because if you can't kick goals then you aren't going to make it as a forward.
Lamb: not up to it and will be 26 next year.
Smelts: if he isn't best 22 by the end of the year he should be gone. He will also turn 26 next year.
Palmer: gone if not best 22 by the end of the season
Thomas: gone if not best 22 by the end of the season
Rowe: will sign a 2 year extension
White: I would delist but I think he will get one more year.
Buckley: 25 next year and not up to it. Gone.
Casboult: a 1 year extension as a backup forward ruck
Kerridge: still contracted. Will stay
Graham: gone
KJ and Boek: gone but if they finish the season strongly still a chance
Jones and Gorringe: gone

If we can pick up Hopper and Kennedy types then we will have enough depth as they will push 2 current best 22 players out along with Kerridge and another top 5 pick.

No way we delist Sumner.

Showed a bit last year and has had injury issues.
Still has speed and talent.

Yeah he's in the 2's atm but he's still young and we need the depth of young players.
Can definitely still make it.

 

[HavUEvaSeenTheRain]

No way we delist Sumner.

Showed a bit last year and has had injury issues.
Still has speed and talent.

Yeah he's in the 2's atm but he's still young and we need the depth of young players.
Can definitely still make it.

It wouldn't surprise me if he is kept but he isn't young as he turns 24 this year and if you can't make a bottom 4 sides team by 24 then you are bloody lucky to be on a list. especially if you have never proved that you can play at the level. He is only two years younger then FA who will have just as much footy ahead of him as he does

 

[HavUEvaSeenTheRain]

You have 11 players gone and that could yet come about.....and you haven't included Armfield nor any rookies.
Moving on players is one part of list management and bringing others in (better ones), is the other.

As things stand we have our 1st rounder (~#3) no second, 3rd rounder (~#45), 4th rounder (~#62) 5th rounder?......and then rookies.
Pretty slim pickings right now and we don't have much currency in players we're prepared to let go.
2+ for ones seem to be on the cards, a quality FA would be great and then the odd trade and a DFA or two.

Not ideal on face value, even if we do use next years first as the bait for getting who we want.
Another big year for SOS and co. Surprise us......

I actually forgot Armfield. I think we may promote a rookie and trade a future pick but you are right we won't want to be taking the last 3 or 4 picks in the draft

 

[HARKER]

I actually forgot Armfield. I think we may promote a rookie and trade a future pick but you are right we won't want to be taking the last 3 or 4 picks in the draft

I don't know if I'm right but that's what SOS has to contend with and possibly why even if we were prepared to lose a dozen players, we may not be able to.

Right now, it would make little sense to have Jaksch on the firing line....none at all, unless he does something outrageous off field.

 

[F_therest]

It wouldn't surprise me if he is kept but he isn't young as he turns 24 this year and if you can't make a bottom 4 sides team by 24 then you are bloody lucky to be on a list. especially if you have never proved that you can play at the level. He is only two years younger then FA who will have just as much footy ahead of him as he does

Valid points but i can easily think of at least 10 other players who we'd move on before him.
Confident he'll be kept at least for next year. Next year would be crunch year for him.