Analysis 2017 List Management Discussion

[F_therest]

Most awkward thing for us is age of Murph and Gibbs. We're at our best with them firing...but equally don't want to go all in with them and have the door slammed shut 2 years later

If only they were 2 years younger then we'd be pretty well placed.

 

[agro]

If only they were 2 years younger then we'd be pretty well placed.

Which is why the pitiful midfield recruiting whilst we had Judd on our least was shameful.

 

[GapInIkonPark]

I look at our list like this:

Best 22 Mature Players: Murphy Gibbs Kruezer Simpson Rowe Cripps Plowman Wright Curnow A.Silvagni plus Graham Casboult and maybe Sheehan

Young Talent: SOS SPS Fisher LeBois Cuningham Polson McKay Kerr Williamson Macreadie Sumner Pickett Charlie Byrne Marchbank Weitering G-Mac

List Depth: Smedts Thomas Kerridge Palmer White Boekhurst Buckley Gorringe Phillips Armfield Jones Lamb Jaksch Korcheck Gallucci

We need to keep topping up the top 2. Majority will be at the club in 2018. Might be a bit harsh on some in "Depth" column but none are currently genuine best 22. One or Two of the young talent may need to step up as well.

I expect around 8-10 of the "Depth" list to be moved on (There are 15 named so we would still keep 5-7 of them). We need more Young Talent and more Best 22 players. Elite talent is what we lack to be a genuine Flag contender. It's harsh but reality

Like it.
Add Docherty to your Best 22 mature players.

 

[F_therest]

Which is why the pitiful midfield recruiting whilst we had Judd on our least was shameful.

Except Judd in a mega trade, after drafting Gibbs we basically didn't recruit/draft another single midfielder who was quality assistance until Cripps in 2013 lol...that's a disgrace. What could have been.

 

[DangerousD]

And there is the rub, I just don't see Kreuzer getting that sort of money anywhere. I can see the figures of 400-550k/year being tossed around, but you would want to think that we would consider matching that sort of money... considering that it would only get us, I think, about band 3 compo.

Mayne and wells netted band 3 with deals at $500,000 per year. If we finish low then the deal is enticing or if it's band 2.
When you say match $450,000 I assume you mean offer that as we don't get the luxury of choosing to match.

 

[DangerousD]

I know it's a free for all competition we find oursleves in, but right now I'd feel dirty should we somehow manage to get Schache and for what may be, for unders.......or any team for that matter.

Swann has to dig his heals in and not allow other clubs to walk over Brisbane and if that means us (pies or tigers) not getting what we want, then so be it.

Brisbane may let Schache go in the end, but they'd want someone that wants him so much, to pay the premium....as they should.

It's largely irrelevant if one or two teams are prepared to pay a premium if the team Schache chooses isn't.
If it's us then we may finish low enough to use the psd.

 

[JyeDye]

Really liking how our list is coming along. The effort and determination is there and after a while hopefully the boys all have bigger tanks and able to perform 4 quarters every week.

Just a question though, how long does everyone think until we start contesting finals and then hopefully a flag?

 

[DangerousD]

Really can't see us giving away high first round picks for players. I'd take another Weitering or SPS any day. Not what we are about and the direction we are heading. Another big draft with hopefully another "Marchbank" type deal is what we need. We are building beautifully. Need to go to the draft for one more year. Another 8 gun kids would be incredible. 2018 may be the year to go for a big fish or two

Of course but 8 gun youngsters? With no second rounder, there will be plenty of pick trading then and player departures

 

[The Old Dark Navy's]

Brisbane have Hipwood with Ballenden to be added through their academy. They may be prepared to trade Schache. Would take our first rounder if it is top 5 though.

 

[DangerousD]

Why would we go younger in the last year of the rebuild?

The players most likely to be delisted/retire/trade are all older players which you would assume will be replaced through the draft.

Losing Daisy, Armfield, Jones if they go really lowers our average age.

 

[true blue19]

If we lose Kreuzer and/or Casboult to F/A who are the ruckman we target in the trade period?

 

[true blue19]

Does Gibbs price go up every week adelaide get smashed in the midfield?

 

[Dramoth]

Mayne and wells netted band 3 with deals at $500,000 per year. If we finish low then the deal is enticing or if it's band 2.
When you say match $450,000 I assume you mean offer that as we don't get the luxury of choosing to match.

yeah, I keep forgetting that he is an unrestricted FA this year.

 

[My name geoff]

If only they were 2 years younger then we'd be pretty well placed.

I'm not sure if there will be a direct correlation, but Bryce Gibbs dad Ross played in the SANFL until he was 36 then played many years of amateur footy after that.

We know Bryce is a very durable player and you'd think with his style of play, another 6-8 years of good footy wouldn't be out of the question.

 

[Malifice]

Mayne and wells netted band 3 with deals at $500,000 per year. If we finish low then the deal is enticing or if it's band 2.
When you say match $450,000 I assume you mean offer that as we don't get the luxury of choosing to match.

With the premium placed on Ruckman, the year Kruezer is having, changes to the third man up rule, and the 20% increase in the TPP, he would attract more than 500,000. It would be Band 2. Probably around 600-650K.

 

[branedotorg]

I don't really like this Scache talk. We would have to give up a lot for him, I'd rather see our young KPP's develop a bit more before spending up big to get another one (whilst neglecting our midfield).

i imagine his manager loves the talk, whether or not he's actually going to leave.

 

[ray8182]

Adelaide's first and our future first.

With the hope that Ben Silvagni comes on next year and we can simply match a bid for him in the first round with a couple of later picks.

I wouldn't be surprised if we don't start using Harry McKay as a Ruckman in the VFL. Preparation for next year should Kruezer leave.

Feasibly this year we could get an end of first round pick for Matty Kruezer as free agency compensation should his form continue and he leave, and a first and a second round pick from Adelaide for Gibbs and a later pick. In addition to a ton of salary cap space, that would leave us with picks 5, 17, 20, 35 to play with in addition to next year's first rounder.

If Kruezer keeps having the year he's having he may very well attract a massive offer at the end of the year. It might even be enough for band one compo.

At last years draft SOS didn't take a ruckman, let alone a project ruckman in the rookie draft. That surprised me as Gorringe isn't up to it as an Afl ruck, basically leaving us with Kruezer and Phillips.

That left me thinking that Kruezer would not be let go. If Kruezer left at the end of the year we would be desperate for a decent mature ruck.

The other issue for me is that Kruezer provides a lot of strength and aggression around the contest which makes a big difference for a young team. Kruezer and Cripps in the centre makes life so much easier for young developing players.

As much as l would like a high draft pick for Kruezer letting him go at the end of year could be problematic.

Does anyone else think that last years draft (no ruckman selected) indicated Kruezer probably stays?


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[JohnnyFontane90]

Not really for this thread but in light of Brisbanes situation I think the AFL should change initial contract post drafting to 3 years and bring down unrestricted FA to the current restricted FA timeline which I believe is 6 years and do away with compensation.

Nothing good comes out of situations where new draftees are fleeing clubs post initial 2 years, it's a terrible look

if we're gonna give players the power to leave then i'd rather get them out the door early rather than waste a few years developing them in place of another player only to see them walk.

 

[ParapMarkets]

At last years draft SOS didn't take a ruckman, let alone a project ruckman in the rookie draft. That surprised me as Gorringe isn't up to it as an Afl ruck, basically leaving us with Kruezer and Phillips.

That left me thinking that Kruezer would not be let go. If Kruezer left at the end of the year we would be desperate for a decent mature ruck.

The other issue for me is that Kruezer provides a lot of strength and aggression around the contest which makes a big difference for a young team. Kruezer and Cripps in the centre makes life so much easier for young developing players.

As much as l would like a high draft pick for Kruezer letting him go at the end of year could be problematic.

Does anyone else think that last years draft (no ruckman selected) indicated Kruezer probably stays?


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Yeah I can't see us letting go of Krooz. Phillips is a fairly decent backup and then there is absolutely nothing. No young developing ruck to blood, just nothing.

 

[BlueRenaissance]

With the premium placed on Ruckman, the year Kruezer is having, changes to the third man up rule, and the 20% increase in the TPP, he would attract more than 500,000. It would be Band 2. Probably around 600-650K.

Mal, if they increase the TPP, won't they update the band compensation in line with that increase? I'm sure they would want to retain the status quo.

 

[Malifice]

Mal, if they increase the TPP, won't they update the band compensation in line with that increase? I'm sure they would want to retain the status quo.

From my understanding they're constantly updating it based upon their database of what players earn. In 2014 you needed to be earning 650 or higher to qualify for band one (top 5% of all player incomes).

Basically what they do is they get the player contract and then compare it to the list of contracts that that are currently in existence. If the new contract would put that player in the top 5% then it's band 1.

The number changes every time a new contract is lost with the AFL. A flurry of contracts at the end of this year may very well see the number pushed up rapidly.

Of course free agency happens before any trades, so we might see compensation higher this year then you would get other years.

At a guess I would say after this year band one would be over 800,000. Band two would probably be 650 to 800.

 

[Malifice]

At last years draft SOS didn't take a ruckman, let alone a project ruckman in the rookie draft. That surprised me as Gorringe isn't up to it as an Afl ruck, basically leaving us with Kruezer and Phillips.

I think they had some confidence in Phillips becoming at least a serviceable Ruckman. He had some pretty good games last year in the seniors.

His one game in the seniors this year he was beyond awful.

My gut tells me if Kruezer leaves we will target a mature age VFL/ WAFL/ SANFL Ruckman in the rookie draft to cover us for a year or two like we did with Cam Wood.

 

[Malifice]

Brisbane have Hipwood with Ballenden to be added through their academy. They may be prepared to trade Schache. Would take our first rounder if it is top 5 though.

I want us to target a key forward more than anyone. I'm not persuaded Schache is the one. Brisbane would ask for the world (pick 5 and then some hefty change on top). And rightly so. Talent or no talent they can't keep leaking players like that to Victorian clubs. Plus they're still probably mighty p*ssed off at us for the Docherty thing.

Us reaming them for pick 33 for Docherty was on par with what Adelaide did to us for Sam Jacobs. From memory they were mighty p*ssed off about it too.

I would almost be happier with us getting into Jeremy Camerons ear and promising in him several million dollars, 51% of the shares in Visy, a job for his girlfriend, father and half of his extended family, and offering the firstborn children of all our members if he agrees to a handshake deal to come across at the end of his next contract as a free agent.

Then we can focus on mids for the next two-three years and then add in a ready-made 26 year-old key forward, right smack when the window opens.

 

[GapInIkonPark]

if we're gonna give players the power to leave then i'd rather get them out the door early rather than waste a few years developing them in place of another player only to see them walk.

It's the same for all clubs. The issue is getting sufficient trade value or FA compensation when our players leave.

 

[GapInIkonPark]

I think they had some confidence in Phillips becoming at least a serviceable Ruckman. He had some pretty good games last year in the seniors.

His one game in the seniors this year he was beyond awful.

My gut tells me if Kruezer leaves we will target a mature age VFL/ WAFL/ SANFL Ruckman in the rookie draft to cover us for a year or two like we did with Cam Wood.

Would you say Phillips was underdone playing Seniors after a long spell with an ankle injury and just the 2 VFL games before the Port Adelaide match?
How do you think he went last year?