Analysis 2017 List Management Discussion

[Pafloyul]

His name is Bowie?

 

[Malifice]

Plus we can't just cross out fingers and hope
McKay comes on....we have way too much to lose if he doesn't...

This is my exact point mate. Weitering can plug the hole up forward for a year or two, while Rowe and ASOS are still going covering down back.

The plan is those two retire (along with our beloved Simpson), then Weitering moves back down back where he belongs.

But if Harry hasnt come on in those 2-3 years... were utterly borked.

Solution: Draft another key forward. Have two developing. Increase our odds of that hole being filled in 2-3 years. Having two key forwards developing means we are far more likely to have one come on, and we are far less likely to have to deal with a massive weakness in the list. We improve our odds.

There is even a chance we get both a CHF and a tall stay at home forward (Cameron/ Patton combo) out of it. Maybe both of them come good.

 

[Windhover]

How can ballancing the list with a good mix of senior and kids be a negative.

Your (rhetorical) question answers itself. And is thus pointless.

First, because we are in rebuild mode we are not interested in a "balanced" list now It takes time to rebuild a list and therefore takes time to have balance in the list for age, experience and on-field positions.

The right question is whether bringing ASOS onto the list for this year (and next year) was required to protect the kids on-field so that they could develop to their full potential. You are entitled to your opinion that despite his age spending a rookie pick on ASOS is thus justified. I disagree with your opinion simply because I think(and thought when ASOS was recruited) that we already had a number of players who could provide mature KPD support to protect "the kids". I did not object to his recruitment because I thought ASOS would not play the role better than Jones, Jaksch, White or Rowe and the fact that he has proven more valuable than most of them does not surprise me in the slightest. I objected because we already had a number of players on the list we need to get rid of in the next year or so. Why add ASOS to the list when we might pick up a 10 year player.

[QUOTE="Blue For Life, post: 50284348, member: 162656"Also setting the standard and helping form a strong culture and above all showing the attitude required to be playing AFL, and not to mention protecting the kids and also important is allowing the kids to build confidence rather than having them playing on big bodied forwards and getting bashed from pilar to post.
Alex Silvagni might not be playing when we are contenders but he sure as hell would of left a lasting impression.[/QUOTE]

I agree with you that ASOS has led by example on the field and accept that he has done so off the field. I also agree that this is useful for "the kids". But I think its usefulness is overstated. First, irrespective of the leadership among the playing group we have a whole bevy of coaches to inculcate proper training habits and playing habits. For example, it has been little noticed but no Carlton player this year has been cited for intentional violence on the footy field. I am not sure anyone has even been reported other than for flag-waving offences like wrestling. I have no doubt that is part of BB's ethos.

Secondly, the idea that without ASOS our kids would be all at sea is a slur on the leadership of players like Murph, Gibbs, K, Rowe, Simmo, Docherty and (for all his faults) Daisy. Thirdly, useful as ASOS has been, except for the game against Port our kids have stood up pretty well and ASOS only came into the side after that game.

You are entitled to your opinion that the recruitment of ASOS was a masterpeice of recruiting. There is no doubt that his recruitment was "deserved". But I remain of the opinion that his recruitment was a mistake, contrary to the planned rebuild and just hope Henry Schade (the nvery next pick in the 2016 rookie draft) isn't playing against us in 5 years time as the Pies best key defender.

 

[HARKER]

I don't care one way or the other where Weitering ends up playing, as long as it's sorted out. I don't, however, think we should be chasing Schache, for a number of reasons.

I've listed my reasons, so what do you see?
I find the Schache talk intriguing and more-so than Weitering back or forward.

Obviously, what we aren't privvy to, is the Master Plan, but.........If we didn't care for Schache but now do, something must have come about for the change of heart.
Did we look in our own back-yard and saw the cupboard to be bare, has something we had sights on fallen through, has the 'new' game-plan changed, or are we just playing games?

 

[BBlood]

Kerr was pick 70, doesnt count. He's a hit and hope, nothing ventured nothing gained pick. Curnow isnt a key forward - he's a utility. SOSOS is a half forward. Jacksh was a bust. McKay could be as well (needs time). He's the only developing key forward we have at present.

We need to find a KP Forward so Weitering can go back into defence.

Do you watch the Northern Blues play? I'd suggest that by your dismissive commentary about most of the Northern Blues players that you don't. I have watched every game this year including the practice games. I am sure that if given a chance and some support from experts like you many of the Carlton listed players currently playing in the 2s could step up and do the job.

You have said recently that the top forwards are high draft picks. We have not been in acceptable draft range or had other priorities to bring them in recently although from what I have seen McKay (at pick 10) is progressing well and could be a revelation as a tall forward and relief ruckman. Sure he needs time but wouldn't it be nice if you provided some encouragement along the way.

The coach is selling hope and I am buying it!

Didn't Kerr go at 65?

 

[Iamcarlton]

Liam Jones doesnt have a future with us mate.

Make no mistake, the intent with JW has always been for him to swing up forward from time to time. I approve of him getting an extended run up forward.

We can afford to just leave him there for an extended period of time and see how he gets on. This year and next year are nothing years for us, Levi is a unrestricted F/A and McKay is still a huge question mark.

We might need him to pug that hole for a few years while we desperately try and recruit a Jeremy Cameron via free agency if Levi leaves, and Harry doesnt come on. Of all our key defenders, Weits is the only one with forward experience. Alex Silvagni is going a good job, and can probably do so for another 2-3 years.

God help is if Levi leaves, Harry doesnt come on, and we cant poach a gun Key Forward before 2020 though.

Lets not sugar coat this; we have the worst forward line (including our half forward line) in the AFL, and by a considerable margin.

Your views are very simplistic its just not that easy nowadays to go get a Cameron Shiel or Patton .If it was we wouldnt be in this situation would we . I dont agree that our forwardline is bad we have the lowest points for yes . But the reason is not quality of forwards we have as the potential is huge in Weitering Mckay Silvagni Curnow Pickett and others . Im sure most clubs would be over the moon for these kids in their forwardline and on their list . Its because we have youth starting their careers up forward that will take time and a bad midfield which is of much more urgency . The game has changed away from aerial supremacy a long time ago . These days if you dont have ground level dominance or atleast to be able to break even consistently and we are far far from that you have no hope to compete on a consistent level with the better sides .
Imo .

 

[HARKER]

Your (rhetorical) question answers itself. And is thus pointless.

First, because we are in rebuild mode we are not interested in a "balanced" list now It takes time to rebuild a list and therefore takes time to have balance in the list for age, experience and on-field positions.

How so? I know what you're getting at, but of course we have the model of our rebuild in mind.
i.e Talls in 2015, mids in 2016 (Macreadie aside, because it may have been a 'too good to refuse situation)

If you don't have some semblance of balance, the whole will suffer.
Right now, we are at least one quality mid short, from what may have been bare minimum for where we are.
Hope we don't push Cripps too hard as we'll pay in the long run.

 

[Funk]

The club sees Jacob as a backman in the long run

I see JW (and SOSOS) as ideal for half forward.

He reads the play and ball flight so well and kicks it so well he is the ideal conduit to the forward line.

A hybrid of Lynch(Crows)/Gunston/Scully.

Working from half back as an outlet for DEF's to the half forward line setting up shots at goal - and sometimes kicking the goals himself.

He will never be a "gorilla" forward and IMHO his skills are wasted as a deep defender while we have so many other capable guys back there.

 

[barass70]

Jones form is so good might be offered new contract

 

[Funk]

Zak Jones?

If he leaves Swans it will be to play as a MID - not be stuck in a back pocket.

I would like to try Lamb/Sumner in that role before we go hunting elsewhere and using up valuable picks.

 

[Malifice]

Do you watch the Northern Blues play? I'd suggest that by your dismissive commentary about most of the Northern Blues players that you don't.

What 'dismissive commentary about most of the Northern Blues' are you on about mate? I've done no such thing.

Our seconds are doing really well at the moment.

You have said recently that the top forwards are high draft picks. We have not been in acceptable draft range or had other priorities to bring them in recently although from what I have seen McKay (at pick 10) is progressing well and could be a revelation as a tall forward and relief ruckman. Sure he needs time but wouldn't it be nice if you provided some encouragement along the way.

I dont think McKay is going to live or die by what I say on the internet. But to avoid any douby I hope that he makes it. I hope that he is the next Buddy Franklin, kicks a hundred goals a season, and makes a squillion dollars a year to the admiration of the Carlton faithful.

Dont take my pragmatism in discussing list management as anything else other than that. When assessing the future of the club I cant pencil McKay in as the great white hope. He is (at present) a question mark. Maybe he makes it. Maybe he doesnt.

From a list management perspective I have to be pragmatic. I realize at present we have all our eggs in the McKay basket (and Im damn sure Bolts knows it too,; its one of the main reasons he's playing Weitering up forward). I have no doubt that in list management meetings the guys are assessing it pragmatically in the same way I am. Looking at a plan B if it doesnt work out. Maximising our chances of success, using that cold emotionless software they are using now.

In fact, if they're just pencilling McKay in on hope I want the list management team sacked immediately.

The coach is selling hope and I am buying it!

Me too mate, but he's also selling pragmatism. This is gonna be a long ride. 'Sticking to the road map, its a journey, green shoots, not defined by wins and losses, dont get too high, dont get too low yada yada.'

Didn't Kerr go at 65?

It was around there somewhere. Picks that low are hit and hope generally mate. Particularly with key forwards. If we jag a Key forward at pick 5 or whatever I'll be bloody ecstatic. He's a long shot. I wish him well (and like McKay) I hope he comes on and has a long and successful career, and kicks 60+ a season for us as a gun FF. But the reality is (and Im sure he knows it) that the odds are well and truly stacked against him.

From a list management perspective those odds are important.

 

[LanceRomance]

Jones form is so good might be offered new contract

excellent

 

[Cliffords Blues]

If he leaves Swans it will be to play as a MID - not be stuck in a back pocket.

I would like to try Lamb/Sumner in that role before we go hunting elsewhere and using up valuable picks.

He will play were Bolt tells him, and he will like it!

 

[Funk]

Thats exactly why we need him there. His ability not just to take intercept marks like Mbank, but also play on, run and carry and deliver the ball last year was ridiculous for a player of his age and experience.

If we need a key forward (and we do), then lets draft/ trade a key forward. Not try and covert our best young defender (his year last year was better than Plowmans and Marchbanks this year) into an average 2nd forward.

Its like saying Cripps is a decent 2nd forward because of his height so lets play him permanently in the forward line. He might make an OK 2nd forward, but he's an elite midfielder.

Why waste Weits back there when we have ASOS, Marchbank, MacReadie, Williamson, Docherty - who can all do that job? Even Simmo has been pushed out of defence and now playing on a wing.

 

[Windhover]

How so? I know what you're getting at, but of course we have the model of our rebuild in mind.
i.e Talls in 2015, mids in 2016 (Macreadie aside, because it may have been a 'too good to refuse situation)

If you don't have some semblance of balance, the whole will suffer.
Right now, we are at least one quality mid short, from what may have been bare minimum for where we are.
Hope we don't push Cripps too hard as we'll pay in the long run.

Of course you need a semblance of balance. That is why I put "balanced" in quotation marks. You obviously recognise that by noting the "unbalanced" nature of our rebuild - talls first, mids second year, in the hope of developing a balanced list when the kids have matured.

My argument is simply that ASOS is not part of the development of a balanced list because he won't be on it when, hopefully, we are competitive for a flag.

It is an interesting thought of yours that Macreadie was not originally intended to be recruited (GWS could have matched) but was too good not to ask for. Had we not picked him but a midfielder perhaps there would have been a bit more of a case for ASOS and perhaps he was promised a spot in the assumption that we would not have him as a KPD to develop.

I think we are several quality midfielders short. I am not yet prepared to bank Polson, Williamson or Fisher (happy as I am with each of them).
But I don't have any fears about pushing Cripps, nor do I have any fears he can be pushed. Maybe we can hold him back a bit now and again and certainly not play him half fit in (meaningless games in) 2017.

 

[Navara79]

Jones form is so good might be offered new contract

Ahh the Jarrod Waite trick...

Good luck to him I guess. Deep down I've always hoped he would come good.

 

[BrisbaneCFC]

Jones form is so good might be offered new contract

Hmmm, two bits of news in two days and I'm leaning to the side of disappointment on both of them.

 

[Malifice]

Your views are very simplistic its just not that easy nowadays to go get a Cameron Shiel or Patton

No shit. Like I'e been saying for ages, key forwards are as rare as hens teeth.

I dont agree that our forwardline is bad we have the lowest points for yes

It is unarguably the worst forward line in the comp. 18th last year with a 3 foot tall DFA leading the goal-scoring with 22 majors, and 18th again this year. Brisbane have scored more than us. Its a running joke on Bigfooty that our ex players (Kennedy, Garlett, Waite and Betts) are scoring more than us most weeks.

Our forward line is rubbish, and our half forward line even worse.

. But the reason is not quality of forwards we have as the potential is huge in Weitering Mckay Silvagni Curnow Pickett and others

Potential is a different argument entirely. But potential is hope. When discussing list management I dont want warm and fuzzies. I want good odds. I want contingencies. I want solid list management. I want redundancies.

I want every player to succeed, but I have to be pragmatic. This is a list management thread. In it we discuss delisting players (and this is their career here) and we have to do so in a pragmatic and respectful way.

And Weitering isnt a forward. He is a defender. No amount of you saying he's a forward will convince me otherwise.

McKay is a forward, but to date he hasnt shown anything, and may never come on. He could be the next Buddy; he could be the next Gumbleton. I dont know. At present he is a question mark. We wont know either way for another 2 years (it takes key forwards 3-4 years to come good, he was bottom aged, and spent a lot of time out last year with an injured back).

Again; I'm not cool (from a list management perspective) of putting all our eggs in one basket. As it stands at present with our key forward stocks we have to play Weitering up forward to cover for our lack of key forwards.

Thats OK while McKay develops. But what if he doesnt make it? Shouldnt we be looking to get in another KPP Forward? One that can do the job, releasing Weitering down back?

We have 2-3 years to find one, develop him and have him AFL ready (Alex Silvagni, Rowe and Simpson have 2-3 years left give or take)

 

[HARKER]

Jones form is so good might be offered new contract

Of course.............and one can't take their pre-conceptions along, forever and a day.

Jones has been a revelation this year to date. You wouldn't believe it if you didn't see it....that's why one should look first.

 

[HARKER]

Hmmm, two bits of news in two days and I'm leaning to the side of disappointment on both of them.

Which part makes for disappointment though?

It's a great thing that those on their death bed have brought in to what the coaches have laid out for them.
The idea of Jones getting another contract 6 weeks ago was laughable.....Boy, have I been forced to change my view on that.

It's not just as though his form has been good......it has been AFL good.
It's on another level to anything we've seen from Jones before.....and the best part........it's been there for the full 4 quarters.

 

[BBlood]

What 'dismissive commentary about most of the Northern Blues' are you on about mate? I've done no such thing.

Our seconds are doing really well at the moment.



I dont think McKay is going to live or die by what I say on the internet. But to avoid any douby I hope that he makes it. I hope that he is the next Buddy Franklin, kicks a hundred goals a season, and makes a squillion dollars a year to the admiration of the Carlton faithful.

Dont take my pragmatism in discussing list management as anything else other than that. When assessing the future of the club I cant pencil McKay in as the great white hope. He is (at present) a question mark. Maybe he makes it. Maybe he doesnt.

From a list management perspective I have to be pragmatic. I realize at present we have all our eggs in the McKay basket (and Im damn sure Bolts knows it too,; its one of the main reasons he's playing Weitering up forward). I have no doubt that in list management meetings the guys are assessing it pragmatically in the same way I am. Looking at a plan B if it doesnt work out. Maximising our chances of success, using that cold emotionless software they are using now.

In fact, if they're just pencilling McKay in on hope I want the list management team sacked immediately.



Me too mate, but he's also selling pragmatism. This is gonna be a long ride. 'Sticking to the road map, its a journey, green shoots, not defined by wins and losses, dont get too high, dont get too low yada yada.'



It was around there somewhere. Picks that low are hit and hope generally mate. Particularly with key forwards. If we jag a Key forward at pick 5 or whatever I'll be bloody ecstatic. He's a long shot. I wish him well (and like McKay) I hope he comes on and has a long and successful career, and kicks 60+ a season for us as a gun FF. But the reality is (and Im sure he knows it) that the odds are well and truly stacked against him.

From a list management perspective those odds are important.

Given you didn't answer my question about attendance at Northern Blues games I take it the answer is No. Strong opinions for someone who doesn't make the effort!

 

[HavUEvaSeenTheRain]

I disagree with 90% of what Malifice is saying; particularly with locking Weitering in as fullback but one thing I agree on is that we shouldn't overlook a KPF with our first pick if we rate him equally or higher then a midfielder. Sure we can improve more quickly by taking the midfielder but taking a key forward pretty much sets up a spine for at least a decade and we can continue to take best available (which is nearly always a midfielder) for the next 7 or 8 years to complement that. We don't find a KPF we could spend the next decade trying to find one and not building on our midfield.

 

[Pafloyul]

I've listed my reasons, so what do you see?
I find the Schache talk intriguing and more-so than Weitering back or forward.

Obviously, what we aren't privvy to, is the Master Plan, but.........If we didn't care for Schache but now do, something must have come about for the change of heart.
Did we look in our own back-yard and saw the cupboard to be bare, has something we had sights on fallen through, has the 'new' game-plan changed, or are we just playing games?

I hope it's the last of those.

Breaking it down into points...

1, I doubt he's the world beater we'd want him to be at the price we'll have to pay.
2, The fact that he's a bit ahead of McKay and any future draftee (read, Ben) might make it tougher for those players to thrive and may even make them look for other options. It would be terrible if they were to leave and have a better career elsewhere than our prised recruit has with us.
3, We should be trading to bolster our midfield, it makes more sense to go best available at the draft and try to trade for young midfielders. It's our biggest need.

You can say what you like about Terry Wallace but he's right in believing we should concentrate on the midfield. I hate waste and I think chasing Schache is like taking a detour to go in a straight line. Were do we get the midfield, what do we do if our list is too tall... etc.

 

[HARKER]

I disagree with 90% of what Malifice is saying; particularly with locking Weitering in as fullback but one thing I agree on is that we shouldn't overlook a KPF with our first pick if we rate him equally or higher then a midfielder. Sure we can improve more quickly by taking the midfielder but taking a key forward pretty much sets up a spine for at least a decade and we can continue to take best available (which is nearly always a midfielder) for the next 7 or 8 years to complement that. We don't find a KPF we could spend the next decade trying to find one and not building on our midfield.

We should never overlook talent but all things being equal........

The other things is that our Master Plan may already take up a couple of mid recruits this year, one next year, along with a quality FA.

We don't have all the information to say unequivocally one way or another.......but it shouldn't stop us from arguing here.

 

[HARKER]

You can say what you like about Terry Wallace but he's right in believing we should concentrate on the midfield. I hate waste and I think chasing Schache is like going one step back in trying to go forward. Were do we get the midfield, What do we do if our list is too tall... etc.

Good stuff....

And just on Terry Wallace.
He's got his act together very well and is no dummy when it comes to talking lists any more.