Analysis 2017 List Management Discussion

[therubbernub]

Thing is, I do not feel it has anything to do with skills, more that he thinks one step at a time and when under pressure it causes him to panic and kick to no one in particular.

If so, then this can be ironed out with a well drilled game plan, and kerridge given a role that takes advantage of his strength and fitness rather than split second decision making. Could prove to be an important player in that scenario

 

[Jeremias]

Boekhorst has talent but I'm not yet convinced he can be a consistently effective footballer at senior level.

Speed has been a major issue for us of late but with the club seemingly having rectified that over the past two draft and trade periods - coupled with Blaine's contract expiring at the end of 2017 - he'd certainly want to have a good year.

 

[Malifice]

2018, Shan.

Weitering, McKay, Curnow Silvagni and Cuningham in their third year at the club.
SPS and Fisher in their second.
Recruit Breust and Wright to bolster the forward line even more.

If we're not genuinely contending to get into the top 8 in 2018 then something has gone wrong.

They'll all be 19-20 years old, with 40 games under the belt at best and will have played together for 2 years at most.

Too early with your expectations. We still have another year of resetting the list to come (next year) and then a few development years (rising up the table). We'll cut another 10 or more players this year.

I dont expect us to be in the eight till 2020, and we should be seriously contending in the 5 years that follows.

 

[Soapy V]

Thing is, I do not feel it has anything to do with skills, more that he thinks one step at a time and when under pressure it causes him to panic and kick to no one in particular.

lets hope he can get it together because he does a lot right. curnow had similar issues early and worked through it and is now a very valuable team member. i still think he has value as a small forward

 

[rp84]

They'll all be 19-20 years old, with 40 games under the belt at best and will have played together for 2 years at most.

Too early with your expectations. We still have another year of resetting the list to come (next year) and then a few development years (rising up the table). We'll cut another 10 or more players this year.

I dont expect us to be in the eight till 2020, and we should be seriously contending in the 5 years that follows.

Agree with this, but also admit its tough to pick when teams make the step to become a finalist. I would be hopeful, but not expect finals maybe in '18, and definitely in 19. No reason to think we cant compete in 19 with most of our bigs a fair bit more developed, and our mids purring.

Just hope we're the bulldogs type of top 8 team, rather than the port Adelaide type of top 8 team.

Cant undersell the value of having one of the best 2 coaches in the comp either.

 

[BrisbaneCFC]

I'm not as enamoured with Fyfe as most of the AFL community is so I'm fine with not chasing him.

Same.

 

[HARKER]

I don't expect us to be in the eight till 2020, and we should be seriously contending in the 5 years that follows.

Stability stands for a lot and if Bolton is still our head coach and SOS List Manager in 2018/9, we may be closer to something good, than may seem to be the case right at the moment.

We'll have no-one of real value off the books as Murphy will still be there, Gibbs will either be with us, or a midfielder of similar value.....and who knows?
Simpson may still be running around and being effective, also. Reckon Simpson will play until he's 34/35.

All the aforementioned guys will have had time to grow, mature and settle into their roles, along with a FA or 2, likely to come our way next year.

That's us but what about the other teams?
That will take too long to look into but clearly Geelong, Hawthorn, North Melbourne and West Coast are ageing, without a huge influx of youth coming through and then we have the clubs that are young and upcoming like ourselves, in Melbourne, St.Kilda, Collingwood, Gold Coast etc. and there are never any guarantees that their upward curves will continue to go up......no matter what people may say. We've seen this, all this too many time before.

One year at a time and you never really know what the next year may bring.

 

[Malifice]

Agree with this, but also admit its tough to pick when teams make the step to become a finalist. I would be hopeful, but not expect finals maybe in '18, and definitely in 19. No reason to think we cant compete in 19 with most of our bigs a fair bit more developed, and our mids purring.

Just hope we're the bulldogs type of top 8 team, rather than the port Adelaide type of top 8 team.

Cant undersell the value of having one of the best 2 coaches in the comp either.

Cripps turns 25 in 2020 (Weitering will be turning 23 that year, along with the other 2015 draftees). Our draft crop from next year will be 21 in 2020. Its not like we'll have an old list.

The trick is finding replacements for Murphy and Gibbs over the next 3 years. Plus another key forward or two. We're sorted for backs.

Next year we finish the lions share of the reset. With another 10 players out the door and we will have turned over 40 or so players in 3 years. From there its adding cream and taking best available in years 18 and 19 and getting games into the team as a group.

My eye is set on 2020.

 

[RudyBlue]

I dont expect us to be in the eight till 2020, and we should be seriously contending in the 5 years that follows.

Yeah 2018 at the earliest for a return, 2019/20 more likely.

Whilst not all rebuilds are created equal, I think of them as 5 year periods, usually beginning with a new coach. If we look at Melbourne and St Kilda, we can say they commenced theirs at the end of 2013. We'll say end of 2011 for the Doggies. For us it's 2015.

Melbourne and St Kilda pushed for finals in 2016, but didn't quite get there. They have high hopes for 2017 (2019 CY*).

Doggies returned in 2015 and won the flag a year later (2019-20 CY).

If we go back further to 2004, we can see how quickly Hawthorn turned things around. By 2007 they were back in the finals and had a flag before 'their time' in 08 (2018-19 CY).

*CY- Carlton Years, a normalisation of other rebuilds to the time-scale of ours currently

 

[rp84]

Cripps turns 25 in 2020 (Weitering will be turning 23 that year, along with the other 2015 draftees). Our draft crop from next year will be 21 in 2020. Its not like we'll have an old list.

The trick is finding replacements for Murphy and Gibbs over the next 3 years. Plus another key forward or two. We're sorted for backs.

Next year we finish the lions share of the reset. With another 10 players out the door and we will have turned over 40 or so players in 3 years. From there its adding cream and taking best available in years 18 and 19 and getting games into the team as a group.

My eye is set on 2020.

Fair rationale. Can easily be +/- 2 years depending on luck/injuries etc

 

[GapInIkonPark]

Unpopular opinion time.

I think Boekhorst has more chance of making it than Cuningham. I don't really see the criticism of Boekhorst being spacially unaware and I don't see him being soft when compared to other wingers. Nothing like Lucas imo.

He was disappointing this season no doubt, but his 27 possession game in the pre-season against a full strength Swans in game 3 was impressive. Cuningham looks impressive but he has never shown an ability to win the ball. Cuningham has a selectors advantage but I still like Boekhorst.

Strongly disagree. Cuningham has played 3 games in his first season (after being injured in first half of the season) and showed more in those 3 games than Boekhorst has shown during his time at Carlton. Boekhorst is fourth in line for delisting after ... Thomas, Jaksch and Jones.

 

[RudyBlue]

The trick is finding replacements for Murphy and Gibbs over the next 3 years. Plus another key forward or two. We're sorted for backs.

Gibbs could easily be a part of a 2020s push for a premiership (if he stays at Carlton), maybe Murph too if we could decrease/manage his workload. Remember Crawf had serious back issues in 03 and contunued long enough to play in the 08 premiership at 34. Shouldn't bank on this of course.

Murph, Gibbs, Simpson and Kreuz (to a lesser extent) are the players we really need to find good replacements for.

 

[HARKER]

Cuningham has had the harder introduction as he's largely been thrown straight into the centre, from day one.
It seemed to be a year of learning for Cuningham and the club backed him wholly throughout the year, to the point he was granted senior games.

Boekhorst is the trickier player but Cuningham has more strings to his bow.............and Boekhorst wasn't selected by SOS. That may go against him.

 

[footyfan1978]

Gibbs could easily be a part of a 2020s push for a premiership (if he stays at Carlton)

Gibbs could be very interesting to watch if he becomes one of those guys that happy to play on to his mid 30's. Reckon he could easily merge himself into a forward player in his later years. He would be good mark for his size, has all the smarts you would want and a good kick for goal.
Could easily seem him kicking 50 goals in a season if he wanted to play on in 2020 and 21.
But for at least a couple more years think have his prime years as a midfielder.
Would not be surprised if 2017 is his best year in his career to date. Expecting it actually. Lost a lot of his early years of career being used as a utility and half backer because he had the talent to do those roles that few others had but robbed him of being a midfielder for some years and finally been allowed to do the pure midfielder role for a few seasons. A few more to come, then think become a forward in twilight years and re-invent for that. No reason he could not play to 35 if he wanted to.

 

[therubbernub]

They'll all be 19-20 years old, with 40 games under the belt at best and will have played together for 2 years at most.

Too early with your expectations. We still have another year of resetting the list to come (next year) and then a few development years (rising up the table). We'll cut another 10 or more players this year.

I dont expect us to be in the eight till 2020, and we should be seriously contending in the 5 years that follows.

In the 8 in '18. Contending (top 4 ) in '20

 

[therubbernub]

Reckon he could easily merge himself into a forward player in his later years. He would be good mark for his size, has all the smarts you would want and a good kick for goal.

c
Same for Murph. He is a seriously good turn , prop and kick player - tools that with his pace and smarts could net him 40-50 per year

 

[therubbernub]

Boekhorst has talent but I'm not yet convinced he can be a consistently effective footballer at senior level.

Speed has been a major issue for us of late but with the club seemingly having rectified that over the past two draft and trade periods - coupled with Blaine's contract expiring at the end of 2017 - he'd certainly want to have a good year.

Its not just speed thats been a problem. We have been a few inside/breakaway mids short- something that an outside player such as BB depends upon. He may be a role player for us yet

 

[mediumsizered]

Strongly disagree. Cuningham has played 3 games in his first season (after being injured in first half of the season) and showed more in those 3 games than Boekhorst has shown during his time at Carlton. Boekhorst is fourth in line for delisting after ... Thomas, Jaksch and Jones.

Buckley & Graham will be out the door before Boeky.

 

[thylacine60]

My eye is set on 2020.

pay that

 

[Stefchook]

Murph, Gibbs, Simpson and Kreuz (to a lesser extent) are the players we really need to find good replacements for.

We've already got a replacement (and upgrade) for Kreuzer (in Phillips).

 

[RudyBlue]

We've already got a replacement (and upgrade) for Kreuzer (in Phillips).

TBD

 

[GapInIkonPark]

Buckley & Graham will be out the door before Boeky.

I think they will all be out but Boekhorst ahead of Buckley and Graham because he shows very little on the field.

 

[footyfan1978]

c
Same for Murph. He is a seriously good turn , prop and kick player - tools that with his pace and smarts could net him 40-50 per year

Difference is I think Murphy relies more on whatever pace he has now. So in reality think Murphy will find it tougher after 32 than Gibbs will. Gibbs has the size to almost play as a marking option so I think he can play on later and re-invent himself a bit. When Murphy quick prop, turn and baulks go he will struggle. He is a good kick though so if he plays forward a bit in year or two reckon he will snag a lot of goals.

 

[footyfan1978]

My eye is set on 2020.

And your nose set on ?

(Blame ferris for this thought pattern)

 

[mediumsizered]

I think they will all be out but Boekhorst ahead of Buckley and Graham because he shows very little on the field.

There was a reason why Buckley & Graham were the last 2 players offered contracts. Boeky is so much better than both of them & with a good injury run will demonstrate this.