Analysis 2017 List Management Discussion

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gandaal

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If we finish in that position next year then may as well pack up,shut the doors and go home.This is the "gap"year next year is the start of the climb back.Gibbs certain to go,kreuzer is heart and soul,casboilt can be replaced,injuries are just bad luck can happen to anyone.Our draftees will have another 10-15 games full pre season build a tank and get bigger bodies.IMO we should get better.
No it's really not. 66 game rebuild. Next year is another development year before we start climbing in 2019.

Anyone thinking that finals is on the horizon in 2018 is in for a rude awakening. Our kids need more senior footy, a few more preseasons and a serious talent injection into our midfield before they take us to September.
 

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DirkDiggler

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This is the big concern for me as well. If Ben is rated as elite and someone bids on him before our 1st, then we have to consume our 1st pick or let him go elsewhere. If we don't have that pick otoh...

The other risk is what if we have another pick #4 and the other 3 teams don't bid on him? They will reap the rewards...
Can't see Ben silvagni going top ten under any circumstance to be honest. With first rounders being so sought after, why would an opposition club risk picking up the son of a Carlton legend with their first pick knowinghe won't figure in their long term plans.

After investing in his development over the life of his two year contract you would expect him to seek a trade whilst uncontracted.

High risk for little reward in my books. Clubs are not going to risk their golden egg for a flight risk.

Just my opinion.

Dirk
 

Kruzering

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If we think Hopper is as good as the kid we might get in the 2018
Draft (could be as last as pick
8-10) why not trade it?

Getting BOSOS cheap would just be a potential bonus.

Hopper fits our age profile and has 10 years left.

There's a bit of Joel Selwood about him imo.

Add him to our 2017 first and a potential first rounder for Gibbs and that's plenty of youth coming through.
 

Old navy

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So your saying we could finish second to last next year based on your comment.
We will be playing even more youth next year and all it would take would be a injury or two to certain players and we could easily finish in the bottom 2.
At this stage, the King twins are being touted as potentially being pick 1 and pick 2 in the 2018 draft, both of them are serious footballers and some recruiters have even said they are the the most impressive 16-17yo key position talents they've seen.
We just aren't in a position, yet, to be risking trading away our future 1st.
 

dangerousdane

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Given the current positions on the ladder what are supporters reaction to this trade and draft scenario?
Trade A:
Gibbs to Port for Atley (PA) & #13
then on-trading #13 & 2018 to GWS 1st for Hopper, Perryman & #28 (StKilda 2nd rd pick)
Lose: Gibbs & 2018 1st rd pick (#1-5)
Gain: Atley, Hopper, Perryman & #28

Trade B:
#39 for Balic (Freo)
Lose: #39
Gain: Balic

From here we go into the draft and pick up:
#3 - Rayner, D.Fogarty or Higgins
#28 - Noah Balta (forward)
#57 - Liam Ryan (forward)
#75 - Ethan Penrith (defender/midfielder)
International Rookie - Drew Martin (USA - Prospect Ruckman)

So what exactly would this get us:

  • Joe Atley (Drafted pick #32 in 2016) - 18yo inside midfielder who has averaged 20 disposals & 8 tackles in 5 games at SANFL.
  • Jacob Hopper (Drafted pick #7 in 2015) - 20yo midfield/forward who has averaged 16.8 disposals and 9 contested possessions in 6 games at AFL level this year.
  • Harry Perryman (Drafted pick #14 in 2016) - 18yo defender and midfielder who has only just made his debut. Has amassed an average of 26 disposals playing through the midfield in the NEAFL.
  • Harley Balic (Drafted #38 in 2015) - 20yo midfield/forward who has dominated in his WAFL appearances. Hasn't translated at AFL level but has shown some good signs and averaged 13 disposals over 4 games.
Plus another mid, key forward, medium forward, running defender and developing ruckman through the draft.

Thoughts?

I don't think Port have a first rounder do they?
 

dangerousdane

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We really need to make a play for 2 top 7 picks. If not this year then next is the last chance.

Let's say we grab Fogarty or Rayner this year with pick 2-3. Trade Gibbs for Crows 1st, probably 11-16

Next year, we keep our 1st pick at all costs and we trade our 2019 1st for an additional top 7 pick. It must be done imo.

4 more highly rated kids in the next 2 drafts is crucial. We can also bring in Ben next year with our 2nd rounder and change.
Why would our 2019 1st round pick be worth a top 7 pick in 2018? I would be hopeful of challenging if not making the 8 in 2019
 

dangerousdane

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Was reading Knightmare's phantom thread. A font of knowledge, certainly, but he has some interesting theories about Collingwood's list management. :) Glad he doesn't have SOS' number!
Now i want to know what they are but can't be bothered sifting through a heap of crap.
 

TerryWallet

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No it's really not. 66 game rebuild. Next year is another development year before we start climbing in 2019.

Anyone thinking that finals is on the horizon in 2018 is in for a rude awakening. Our kids need more senior footy, a few more preseasons and a serious talent injection into our midfield before they take us to September.
Which is why Macreadie or McKay should replace Rowe.
 

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BrisbaneCFC

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I'll put it this way, if I was given the option of Shiel or Hopper + a late 1st rounder, I'd take Shiel everyday of the week. If Shiel was on the table for pick #3, I would have no problem with making that trade.



Yeah change wasn't the right word, more so to my example above, a late 1st rounder could net us a decent player but going back to my point (and this is imo, not trying to state it as fact) 1 elite player > 1 very good player + 1 decent player



I'd try and negotiate that 3 way trade I suggested with Adelaide. We get Hopper + Crows 2nd, Crows get Gibbs + our 3rd, GWS get Crows 1st.

If we were going to trade the 2018 1st, then it should be for no less than a top 7 pick imo.
FWIW using your example of Shiel I don't think he is an elite player, however, why would you be assuming that the late first rounder we would receive along with Hopper in your stated scenario only be a " decent " player as opposed to a very good player?
 

HARKER

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Can't see Ben silvagni going top ten under any circumstance to be honest. With first rounders being so sought after, why would an opposition club risk picking up the son of a Carlton legend with their first pick knowinghe won't figure in their long term plans.

After investing in his development over the life of his two year contract you would expect him to seek a trade whilst uncontracted.

High risk for little reward in my books. Clubs are not going to risk their golden egg for a flight risk.

Just my opinion.

Dirk
It's not about that but more-so about forcing ones hand.
We knew Setterfield wouldn't be passed over but still bid for him, keeping things 'honest'

If Ben was deemed to be a top talent, clubs won't just let him slide to our third rounder for your reasoning. Won't happen.
 

BrisbaneCFC

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Because then we are giving them a way to cycle through highly rated kids and they will keep the best ones to themselves at this rate.
If the trading relationship nets us the players we want why does it matter that they will/ can continue to cycle through players using any pick we give them, or other clubs for that matter, if it improves our list? I don't see the problem.
 

BrisbaneCFC

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Under no circumstances do we trade picks in the top 5. hopper is not worth a top 5 pick i would only trade a top 5 pick for a bone-fide star "kelly"
And what if the cost benefit analysis of trading a top 5 pick is on the positive side for our long term future? Surely an " under no circumstances " edict is very short sighted.
 

BrisbaneCFC

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Can't see Ben silvagni going top ten under any circumstance to be honest. With first rounders being so sought after, why would an opposition club risk picking up the son of a Carlton legend with their first pick knowinghe won't figure in their long term plans.

After investing in his development over the life of his two year contract you would expect him to seek a trade whilst uncontracted.

High risk for little reward in my books. Clubs are not going to risk their golden egg for a flight risk.

Just my opinion.

Dirk
Id agree, absolutely.
 

Old navy

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It's not about that but more-so about forcing ones hand.
We knew Setterfield wouldn't be passed over but still bid for him, keeping things 'honest'

If Ben was deemed to be a top talent, clubs won't just let him slide to our third rounder for your reasoning. Won't happen.
Think SOS is way to smart to let it get to that point, think he'll fellow a similar path to the one Jack went with and try to keep things as low key as possible.
Let's face it we've known we are going to take Ben for a fair while now, he doesn't need to have a big draft year, so most likely won't.
Based on that, may be another club would use a 2nd rounder to keep us honest, but probably not a 1st.
 

Benaly28

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No it's really not. 66 game rebuild. Next year is another development year before we start climbing in 2019.

Anyone thinking that finals is on the horizon in 2018 is in for a rude awakening. Our kids need more senior footy, a few more preseasons and a serious talent injection into our midfield before they take us to September.
Never said finals.
 
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A poster on TC, who had the early mail on Marchbank, says expect the club to go after Adam Saad from GC. Apparently wants to come home and family are Carlton supporters and one of the reasons why the club did not trade Gibbs last year as we wanted a pick for this years trade period.
So 2 + 2 ... Byrne to Brisbane, Saad (GC) to Carlton ... and ...
Or pick out of Gibbs trade (to Adelaide) passed on to Brisbane, Saad to Carlton ...
 
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Blue_Fusion

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If the trading relationship nets us the players we want why does it matter that they will/ can continue to cycle through players using any pick we give them, or other clubs for that matter, if it improves our list? I don't see the problem.
I just told you. I'll put it this way, draft picks don't always = elite players. By continuously allowing them early picks we are increasing their chances of getting the most talented players on their list. Hopper will improve our list, but if they pick up someone better with that pick then we have missed the chance of having someone better while they improve their list even further.

You do realise that we have to beat them eventually right? How are we going to do that when they keep picking up the best youngsters?
 

Blue_Fusion

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FWIW using your example of Shiel I don't think he is an elite player, however, why would you be assuming that the late first rounder we would receive along with Hopper in your stated scenario only be a " decent " player as opposed to a very good player?
Because that's the odds. There's no guarantee, but usually the best players are from the top end of the draft. Common sense really.
 
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It's not about that but more-so about forcing ones hand.
We knew Setterfield wouldn't be passed over but still bid for him, keeping things 'honest'

If Ben was deemed to be a top talent, clubs won't just let him slide to our third rounder for your reasoning. Won't happen.
Stephen will hide his son at Xavier if need be Harks. Serge didn't let Stephen play more than 1 game a week and SOS appears to run the same philosophy
 
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Hopper is a great talent, great in his draft year, but what he has shown in his AFL career so far, you can't be just OK with giving up a potential top 5 pick for him. I can't see how he would have more trade value than Marchbank, both picked at #6, both had promising starts at GWS albeit with injuries, however Marchbank has the KPP premium. Think SOS would be swinging a deal similar to Marchbank's last year.

Also if BSOS is going to be a first round talent and other clubs know about it, there's no doubt would be wanting to get a pick before they have to match Ben
 
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