Analysis 2017 List Management Discussion

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HARKER

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We'll be making extensive use of free agency starting in 2018 onwards. From now till then the focus is on 23 y/o and younger players (primarily though the draft)

The only F/A we'll see this year will likely be one of Kruzer or Casboult leaving. With that loss likely to attract a decent pick, its unlikely we'll be getting one in this year.
Yes, that does make for common sense but we do have to spend some money........now.
I understand we've had our two years at 95% TPP and that alone opens up plenty of loose cash.

Lots we can do to pad that out this year, but the money will be there 'just in case.' Who knows for sure?
 

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TheHeatleyStand

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the thing that's holding us back is our forward line. we all know key forwards take a long time to develop and we don't even have any goal kicking small forwards on the list yet except wright. until we see some development in that area i'll have hard time believing we can get out of the bottom 5-6.

so if that future first is expected to be a top 5 pick we should be getting more than just hopper.
Midfield
 

Blue__Balls

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Yes, that does make for common sense but we do have to spend some money........now.
I understand we've had our two years at 95% TPP and that alone opens up plenty of loose cash.

Lots we can do to pad that out this year, but the money will be there 'just in case.' Who knows for sure?
Would love to sign up some of our more promising young kids to long-term front loaded contracts.

Reward guys like Plowman, Doc, Marchbank and SOS with restructured deals that recognise their contributions. Lock in guys like McKay, SPS, Fisher, Williamson for an extra 2 years each, and an extra year for the Macreadies and Polsons who are still lurking around the fringe as a show of faith in their progress so far.
 

TheHeatleyStand

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When I say Fyfe..I mean in a broad sense any of the free agents that are attracting very very big dollars. It doesn’t have to be Fyfe per se…it could be Martin..or even Kelly…There’s divided opinion on this forum as to whether we are ready for a big name player and contract to come over to Carlton. My opinion is we should wait and do the deal when we are a little deeper into the 66 game rebuild. Right now my opinion is we should keep bringing in kids and focus hard on developing them.

When I say Judd like contract. I mean the time of his contract along with the % of the salary cap he took. Not what the deal consisted of to get him to Carlton in the first place. Net gain here really is that the guy was probably the best footballer of his generation. But had we not misjudged we were as a club back then things could have been very different. Imagine if a player of his ilk came in say at the start of the 2019 season? Timing is everything. Not just stockpiling draft picks but timing the inclusion of specific elite free agent talent in that 25-30 age brack at the right time…

My opinion is that time is not now.

Re: Hopper. Right age, Right Fit, heap of upside as he’s only going to keep improving and at Carlton do so alongside a group of kids more or less the same age. Great get if the deal can be done even for pick #3 in the context you speak of. Totally agree.

Cheers
Say you picked up Whitfield hopper and say Martin plus another free agent vet
This year

What's wrong with that if all managed?
 

jd2010

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3 of the delistings we knew were coming have been confirmed with that selection tonight.

KJ
Jones
Boekhorst

How many do you think will get the chop this year?
 

Soapy V

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3 of the delistings we knew were coming have been confirmed with that selection tonight.

KJ
Jones
Boekhorst

How many do you think will get the chop this year?
Jones is injured so unlucky. Will need to come back and perform

Interesting the non selections of KJ Kerridge Palmer Buckley & Boekhurst. Sumner & Smedts haven't exactly set the world on fire in the VFL. Is it a sign of what the MC thinks of these players?
 

jd2010

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Jones is injured so unlucky. Will need to come back and perform

Interesting the non selections of KJ Kerridge Palmer Buckley & Boekhurst. Sumner & Smedts haven't exactly set the world on fire in the VFL. Is it a sign of what the MC thinks of these players?
Didn't realise he was injured. Very stiff. Not that I think he'd make it at AFL level as a defender wouldn't minded him getting a chance
 

Wickzki

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3 of the delistings we knew were coming have been confirmed with that selection tonight.

KJ
Jones
Boekhorst

How many do you think will get the chop this year?
Not sure how you can possibly say that they've been confirmed....

Macreadie in for Rowe is the natural replacement as they're keen on the Marchbank, Plowman, Macreadie backline for the future.

With Daisy out, Smedts is the natural replacement there.

It's a Sunday game.... Phillips in as emergency cover for Kreuzer in the ruck is a natural selection, Simon White's a natural utility emergency while Sumner seems to be the extra listed.

Ultimately, there was only one spot up for grabs given that Daisy and Rowe are the only forced outs right now. They gave it to Sumner whose also potentially on the chopping block.
 

jd2010

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Not sure how you can possibly say that they've been confirmed....

Macreadie in for Rowe is the natural replacement as they're keen on the Marchbank, Plowman, Macreadie backline for the future.

With Daisy out, Smedts is the natural replacement there.

It's a Sunday game.... Phillips in as emergency cover for Kreuzer in the ruck is a natural selection, Simon White's a natural utility emergency while Sumner seems to be the extra listed.

Ultimately, there was only one spot up for grabs given that Daisy and Rowe are the only forced outs right now. They gave it to Sumner whose also potentially on the chopping block.
Macreadie isn't natural at all as a replacement at FB when he is 19. I think white will be the one to come in for Rowe. Our backline will be far too young to handle Brown and Waite. Jones is injured so that's why he got overlooked. But can't see him getting a chance once is back (around round 14).

KJ had his papers stamped with his awful effort last year

I would have thought surely Boekhorst should get a look in as an emergency on the extended bench. Palmer, Sumner and Smedts haven't been that much better than he has.
 

Wickzki

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Macreadie isn't natural at all as a replacement at FB when he is 19.
I think they'll give Marchbank the job on Waite, Alex takes Brown, Plowman takes Wood leaving Macreadie to play as a taller mobile defender.

If we didn't have Alex I think you'd be right. But we'll still have four taller (190cm+) mobile defenders with Macreadie either way.

You'll start seeing the other guys get a run in over the final 2 or so months of the season.
 

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jd2010

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I think they'll give Marchbank the job on Waite, Alex takes Brown, Plowman takes Wood leaving Macreadie to play as a taller mobile defender.

If we didn't have Alex I think you'd be right. But we'll still have four taller (190cm+) mobile defenders with Macreadie either way.

You'll start seeing the other guys get a run in over the final 2 or so months of the season.
Oh I forgot ASOS. We'll be fine this week there's at least some experience there.

Still doesn't look good for the 3 I mentioned. Jones due to bad luck may have missed his last chance. The other two to especially KJ it looks grim for. We are struggling up forward and he doesn't even make the emergency list. Boekhorst has been good in the twos but it doesn't seem to be enough, will it ever be? Personally don't think so
 

Cutz

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Say you picked up Whitfield hopper and say Martin plus another free agent vet
This year

What's wrong with that if all managed?
Well...that would be outstanding...I guess with the inclusion of Whitfield and Hopper whilst we still Murph would be outstanding. But then you have Martin who comes in on the dollars being quoted right now. The question Id like answered if we pulled this type of trade would be ..Would we be better off spending those type of dollars (rumoured to be about 1 mill a season) on a fwd. Considering Harry's going to take another 3-4 years to be where we need him to.

Im from the camp that believes we can develop our own midfield class..Maybe even prize 1 or 2 more from GWS...But the millions should go to exceptional fwds aka Buddy, Cameron, Patton, et al. These types are like hens teeth now...
 

dangerousdane

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If SOS was open to Cas leaving via FA at seasons end (band 3), do people think the Dogs would be open to giving us Cloke?
If he hasn't worked at the dogs and they don't see him in their future plans, it would allow them to increase their offer to JJ who is very important.
 
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If SOS was open to Cas leaving via FA at seasons end (band 3), do people think the Dogs would be open to giving us Cloke?
If he hasn't worked at the dogs and they don't see him in their future plans, it would allow them to increase their offer to JJ who is very important.
And why would we want Cloke? Guy is a liability on the football field at the moment
 
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3 of the delistings we knew were coming have been confirmed with that selection tonight.

KJ
Jones
Boekhorst

How many do you think will get the chop this year?
Gorringe, Buckley, Palmer, Armfield, KJ, Boekhorst, White (7)

Retained for another year
Jones, Kerridge, Graham, Thomas (reduced salary), Smedts, Sumner, Lamb
 

ParapMarkets

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Kruezer is an unrestricted free agent this year.

As a ruckman who is in great form, he will attract some very good offers from rival clubs (Bulldogs looking most likely). 4 years at 650-700k per year ballpark.

Even if we match that offer, he might still elect to leave. He's unrestricted.

We'll get decent (Band 2-3) compo though - a pick in the 19-22 range.



Im not making it sound worse, its just that you understimate the shit we found ourselves in pre the list 'reset'. We blew all our early draft picks from 2008-2014 (Lucas, Menzel, Watson, Yarran, Bootsma all gone, Boekhoest with one foot out the door) barring Cripps; leaving a massive hole in the list.

The 2015 and 2016 drafts have gone part of the way to fixing this hole, but we have a long way to go (officially still the 2017 and 2018 drafts to 'finish' the 'reset' of the list). We also need to nail every single pick in order to fill the gaps we need to fill.

Once the 'reset' is complete at the end of next years draft, we'll have gutted 50 or so players from the 2014 list, and have brought in a bunch of 18-22 year old kids.

Those kids then need time to gell together and develop. A year or two at least (during which time we make use of free agency to get in talented players as top ups).

2020 will see us fighting it out for a top four spot. At that stage we'll have a list of talented 20-25 year olds, with 50-100 games of experience under their belts playing together.
I'm not underestimating anything. I've watched Carlton over the years just like you. I'm fully aware of the predicament we have come from. You mention a bunch of players that we need to replace (most of whom are very easily replaced) to make things sound worse.

Of course older players will be replaced, but compared with most teams we have far less to worry about in that regard. Anyway, I did say that I agree with a lot of what you said, I just think our timeframe may surprise a few of you, especially when we start using free agency (either this year or next). 2019 should be seen as a real chance of finals.

I think Krooz will stay. I'm not sure why you think that it is such a massive deal that he is unrestricted? Unless you think SOS has no conversations with him and his manager through the year and has no idea of the offers and/or compo he is likely to attract, if we treat him with respect and offer him a contract close to his value he will stay. Tier 2 compo is the best we could hope for and he's far more valuable to our rebuild than a pick in the early twenties.
 

jd2010

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Gorringe, Buckley, Palmer, Armfield, KJ, Boekhorst, White (7)

Retained for another year
Jones, Kerridge, Graham, Thomas (reduced salary), Smedts, Sumner, Lamb
Agree with most. Only differences would be White to stay and Jones to go. Also think Lamb will go too. Isn't he on a bit of coin from his old deal?
 

ferrisb

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If SOS was open to Cas leaving via FA at seasons end (band 3), do people think the Dogs would be open to giving us Cloke?
If he hasn't worked at the dogs and they don't see him in their future plans, it would allow them to increase their offer to JJ who is very important.
Mods, permission to wash dd's mouth out with soap.....?
 

BrisbaneCFC

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If SOS was open to Cas leaving via FA at seasons end (band 3), do people think the Dogs would be open to giving us Cloke?
If he hasn't worked at the dogs and they don't see him in their future plans, it would allow them to increase their offer to JJ who is very important.
If we are going down this route, we might as well go ask Sydney for Kurt Tippett too. :rolleyes:
 
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