Analysis 2017 List Management Discussion

Status
Not open for further replies.

(Log in to remove this ad.)

Joined
Oct 2, 2007
Posts
33,315
Likes
27,206
Location
Perth
AFL Club
Carlton
Moderator #7,752
Of course older players will be replaced, but compared with most teams we have far less to worry about in that regard. Anyway, I did say that I agree with a lot of what you said, I just think our timeframe may surprise a few of you, especially when we start using free agency (either this year or next). 2019 should be seen as a real chance of finals.
I agree with you mate. I think we will be on the cusp of finals in 2019 (dependent on how we draft this year, and next, what free agents we pick up in 2018, and particularly depending on if McKay comes on to be a 40+ goal a year key forward by then).

We have soooooo much riding on our one Key Forward coming good. He's the key for mine; we need him developing into a 40+ goal a year key forward at least (60+ goals is the preferred benchmark) and I really dont like having so many eggs in just the one basket.

I think Krooz will stay. I'm not sure why you think that it is such a massive deal that he is unrestricted? Unless you think SOS has no conversations with him and his manager through the year and has no idea of the offers and/or compo he is likely to attract, if we treat him with respect and offer him a contract close to his value he will stay. Tier 2 compo is the best we could hope for and he's far more valuable to our rebuild than a pick in the early twenties.
I disagree. A player taken at pick 20 (which is the probably compo if he leaves) will be better for our side in the window that opens in 2020 when we are pushing for top 4 and a serious finals side pushing for dominance of the comp. He (the player we pick at pick 20) will be 21 when the window opens, with 50 games and 3 years under his belt.

Matty Kruezer will be 32 when the window opens.

Presuming we trust SOS to find a good player with pick 20 (where we landed Fisher last year, and Macreadie and Williamson and Polson with much later picks) then if Kruezer gets offered a deal that places him in Band 2-3 compo range, we thank him for his 10 years of service to the club and wish him the best.

We do the same with Gibbs, offloading him and our third (39) for Adelaides 1st (say pick 17) and second (35).

We then have picks 3, 17, 21, 35, 57 in the top 60 to play with instead of picks 3, 39 and 57.
 
Joined
Oct 2, 2007
Posts
33,315
Likes
27,206
Location
Perth
AFL Club
Carlton
Moderator #7,754
With Rowe being out for the year you'd think Jones and Jaksch would get a game eventually, could be the silver lining.
The fact neither got called up this week even in an extended 5 man squad pretty much signals the fact both are gone at the end of the year.

Boltons not playing blokes that arent in our future plans.
 

jd2010

Brownlow Medallist
Joined
Feb 1, 2010
Posts
26,100
Likes
12,945
AFL Club
Carlton
Other Teams
Tottenham Hotspur
The fact neither got called up this week even in an extended 5 man squad pretty much signals the fact both are gone at the end of the year.

Boltons not playing blokes that arent in our future plans.
Jones is apparently out for 3 weeks so he is perhaps unlucky. He has been named emergency before so he may get 1 last chance.

KJ is done. That could go down as one of our worst trade blunders of all time!
 

Blue_Fusion

Norm Smith Medallist
Joined
Oct 4, 2015
Posts
7,018
Likes
7,862
AFL Club
Carlton
I agree with you mate. I think we will be on the cusp of finals in 2019 (dependent on how we draft this year, and next, what free agents we pick up in 2018, and particularly depending on if McKay comes on to be a 40+ goal a year key forward by then).

We have soooooo much riding on our one Key Forward coming good. He's the key for mine; we need him developing into a 40+ goal a year key forward at least (60+ goals is the preferred benchmark) and I really dont like having so many eggs in just the one basket.
I think forward lines are evolving. Look at last night's game for example. Hawkins and Dixon both with 1 goal only. Danger and Gray with 3 each. Or another example Swans v Saints last week. Sure Buddy kicked 4 but majority of them were when the Swans already had the game wrapped up. It was Cunningham, Papley and Hannebery who stepped up at crucial times when the game was in the balance.

We have not only McKay, but Charlie, Jack, Ben coming up as well. Not all have to be leading targets but Charlie crashes packs. Such an important aspect to his game. Jack is relentless with his effort. Both great signs. We'll most likely look toward a mid/fwd hybrid from the draft this year in either Rayner or Fogarty.

We'll have a dynamic midfield and forward line with Cripps, Charlie and Rayner/Fogarty which will be tough to match up on and prepare for.

We need to bring in better midfielders first. Having those 3 rotating with Charlie primarily played as a forward while the other 2 go mid along with SPS will be a good start.

I've gone a little cold on trading our 2018 1st for another top 7 pick this year and would be more keen to use the Gibbs pick on best mid available and then next year we trade our 2019 1st for an additional top 7 pick.

If we spend 2 top 7 picks next year on best mids and spend our 2nd/3rd on Ben, we'll be in a great spot come 2020 imo.
 

ODNBlue

Norm Smith Medallist
Joined
Mar 8, 2013
Posts
6,006
Likes
10,456
Location
On my high horse
AFL Club
Carlton
Other Teams
Chicago Bears
Completely spot on.

Let me add this. I know that the saying goes "past behavior is the most likely indicator of future behavior." However, I fully believe that people can become reformed and improved individuals. I know this to be true because I believe that I am an example of this.

This is something that only one or two posters on here know about me. But it's also why I want to see guys like Charlie and Lachie Whitfield succeed as both players and human beings after careless, reckless mistakes.

When I was living and working in the United States back in the mid-2000s (2005-2007) in exceptionally high level professional sports I suffered a stroke. A combination of bad lifestyle choices and working harder than Alan Bond (upwards of 22 hour work days, 5+ days a week for months on end). I grew up a naive kid who wanted to help everyone and believed that the only way of a small western suburbs of Melbourne kid succeeding in life was to work as hard as humanly possible. I wanted my reports to be the envy of all of my peers. And they were. I was able to identify talent at an exceptional level. But it came with a massive consequence.

When I got out of hospital it was determined by my support group that I could no longer live out of hotels. At least not until I was fully recovered. I was given a choice to either move back to Australia and recover surrounded by family and friends or to stick with it, move in with people that I did not know and recover until I was good to return to work. I decided that the former was as good as giving up and feared that I would lose the opportunity to return. Thereby, I chose the latter option.

Unfortunately, the people that I chose - based on a recommendation of a peer - to live with were up to no good. Internet based crimes were committed in my name. As I was there 24/7 recuperating I couldn't possibly deny that I was not there at the times that these crimes occurred. My public appointed attorney advised me that given the circumstances that my best bet was to take a plea deal. The plea deal was awful for a first time offender (32+ months inside the state custody) but for someone from overseas to have committed said crimes he told me that was the best that I could hope for (which I now believe to be bullshit but that's besides the point). I took the plea deal. I didn't fight it.

Through the utter stupidity of the people who did commit the crimes continuing to commit crimes in my name while I was in prison I was released after 24 months and got out of the final 8 months of my sentence. It took that long for the state to get that stuff sorted.

Although I forfeited over two years of my life to this day I believe that it was the best thing to ever happen to me. I learned so much about life and what it takes to succeed in it. I took every behavior class available for me. I busted my ass in work assignments. I attended various denomination church sessions, not because I'm religious (I'm not really) but because it was an opportunity to learn more about life. Every religion has invaluable lessons that can be imparted upon those willing to learn. I also learned that not everyone in prison, as guilty as they may be of their crime, are necessarily bad people. In fact, some of the best people that I've ever had the privilege of knowing are doing long sentences and some had been there before I was even born (I was in my mid-twenties).

Since prison I have earned three separate university degrees, have contributed to several of my deep seated passions and have done freelance work for companies ranging from sole trading self employed companies and several Fortune 500 corporations. Last week I finally launched Gamephasis and have already secured over 40 different permanent media partners including several of the largest gaming developer and publishers in the world.

I believe that everyone is capable of becoming a high functioning member of society capable of leaving their mark in a multitude of different ways. So what if some players like Charlie Curnow or Whitfield have committed acts that could deem them reprehensible in the scheme of being a professional sportsperson. We cannot control what they've done in the past. We are all equally capable of committing silly, stupid mistakes. What we can control is what we do in the future. If we are committed to creating a positive change in our own lives and living it in a positive manner that contributes to society in some way then that is our function as human beings.

The only people that we should hold in contempt are those who repeatedly make poor decisions and show absolutely no sign of desire in correcting that behavior.

That's my two cents on the matter.

P.S. Sorry for going off-topic as much as I did.
Just wow. You would be one to have a beer with, and I don't drink.
 

BIGGUS 64

Premiership Player
Joined
Feb 3, 2014
Posts
3,024
Likes
5,353
Location
Greensborough
AFL Club
Carlton
If SOS was open to Cas leaving via FA at seasons end (band 3), do people think the Dogs would be open to giving us Cloke?
If he hasn't worked at the dogs and they don't see him in their future plans, it would allow them to increase their offer to JJ who is very important.
What?!!
Now that it seems that Levi has finally sorted out his kicking at goal (love yer work, Sav), NOW we trade him for Cloke?!!
Surely you jest. o_O

The only use Cloke would ever have been to us would have been to make Malthouse happy four years ago - and we would have had to sell the farm for the privilege.
Levi stays.
Cloke is 3 years older than Cas, as dodgy in front of goal as Cas ever was and not as good as a back-up ruckman.
 

1981

Norm Smith Medallist
Joined
Oct 21, 2008
Posts
7,168
Likes
6,934
Location
Melbourne
AFL Club
Carlton
I agree with you mate. I think we will be on the cusp of finals in 2019 (dependent on how we draft this year, and next, what free agents we pick up in 2018, and particularly depending on if McKay comes on to be a 40+ goal a year key forward by then).

We have soooooo much riding on our one Key Forward coming good. He's the key for mine; we need him developing into a 40+ goal a year key forward at least (60+ goals is the preferred benchmark) and I really dont like having so many eggs in just the one basket.



I disagree. A player taken at pick 20 (which is the probably compo if he leaves) will be better for our side in the window that opens in 2020 when we are pushing for top 4 and a serious finals side pushing for dominance of the comp. He (the player we pick at pick 20) will be 21 when the window opens, with 50 games and 3 years under his belt.

Matty Kruezer will be 32 when the window opens.

Presuming we trust SOS to find a good player with pick 20 (where we landed Fisher last year, and Macreadie and Williamson and Polson with much later picks) then if Kruezer gets offered a deal that places him in Band 2-3 compo range, we thank him for his 10 years of service to the club and wish him the best.

We do the same with Gibbs, offloading him and our third (39) for Adelaides 1st (say pick 17) and second (35).

We then have picks 3, 17, 21, 35, 57 in the top 60 to play with instead of picks 3, 39 and 57.
In my opinion Kreuzer is arguably the most important player on our list right now for games played right now.

His hardness, efforts, competitiveness etc make him so important.

But in saying that I think it's fair to say SOS will have to make some tough decisions in the next few years. Whether that includes MK only time will tell. He may be seen as an integral part of the playing groups culture and that plus his value as a player might make him ubtradeable in the clubs views, or maybe they'll decide as tough as it is he needs to go one way or another as he is one if the only players not young that will get us a return.

It'll come down to the men in charge and they'll need to balance a whole range of variables - impact on culture, can MK play on well past 30, how much we would get for him if he leaves, do we find another good ruck somehow, how well the team is developing, do we trade others like Gibbs and if so what do we get for these players, does SOS ace the draft again, etc etc etc
 
Joined
Mar 25, 2010
Posts
1,614
Likes
2,198
Location
South Yarra Vic 3141
AFL Club
Carlton
Completely spot on.

Let me add this. I know that the saying goes "past behavior is the most likely indicator of future behavior." However, I fully believe that people can become reformed and improved individuals. I know this to be true because I believe that I am an example of this.

This is something that only one or two posters on here know about me. But it's also why I want to see guys like Charlie and Lachie Whitfield succeed as both players and human beings after careless, reckless mistakes.

When I was living and working in the United States back in the mid-2000s (2005-2007) in exceptionally high level professional sports I suffered a stroke. A combination of bad lifestyle choices and working harder than Alan Bond (upwards of 22 hour work days, 5+ days a week for months on end). I grew up a naive kid who wanted to help everyone and believed that the only way of a small western suburbs of Melbourne kid succeeding in life was to work as hard as humanly possible. I wanted my reports to be the envy of all of my peers. And they were. I was able to identify talent at an exceptional level. But it came with a massive consequence.

When I got out of hospital it was determined by my support group that I could no longer live out of hotels. At least not until I was fully recovered. I was given a choice to either move back to Australia and recover surrounded by family and friends or to stick with it, move in with people that I did not know and recover until I was good to return to work. I decided that the former was as good as giving up and feared that I would lose the opportunity to return. Thereby, I chose the latter option.

Unfortunately, the people that I chose - based on a recommendation of a peer - to live with were up to no good. Internet based crimes were committed in my name. As I was there 24/7 recuperating I couldn't possibly deny that I was not there at the times that these crimes occurred. My public appointed attorney advised me that given the circumstances that my best bet was to take a plea deal. The plea deal was awful for a first time offender (32+ months inside the state custody) but for someone from overseas to have committed said crimes he told me that was the best that I could hope for (which I now believe to be bullshit but that's besides the point). I took the plea deal. I didn't fight it.

Through the utter stupidity of the people who did commit the crimes continuing to commit crimes in my name while I was in prison I was released after 24 months and got out of the final 8 months of my sentence. It took that long for the state to get that stuff sorted.

Although I forfeited over two years of my life to this day I believe that it was the best thing to ever happen to me. I learned so much about life and what it takes to succeed in it. I took every behavior class available for me. I busted my ass in work assignments. I attended various denomination church sessions, not because I'm religious (I'm not really) but because it was an opportunity to learn more about life. Every religion has invaluable lessons that can be imparted upon those willing to learn. I also learned that not everyone in prison, as guilty as they may be of their crime, are necessarily bad people. In fact, some of the best people that I've ever had the privilege of knowing are doing long sentences and some had been there before I was even born (I was in my mid-twenties).

Since prison I have earned three separate university degrees, have contributed to several of my deep seated passions and have done freelance work for companies ranging from sole trading self employed companies and several Fortune 500 corporations. Last week I finally launched Gamephasis and have already secured over 40 different permanent media partners including several of the largest gaming developer and publishers in the world.

I believe that everyone is capable of becoming a high functioning member of society capable of leaving their mark in a multitude of different ways. So what if some players like Charlie Curnow or Whitfield have committed acts that could deem them reprehensible in the scheme of being a professional sportsperson. We cannot control what they've done in the past. We are all equally capable of committing silly, stupid mistakes. What we can control is what we do in the future. If we are committed to creating a positive change in our own lives and living it in a positive manner that contributes to society in some way then that is our function as human beings.

The only people that we should hold in contempt are those who repeatedly make poor decisions and show absolutely no sign of desire in correcting that behavior.

That's my two cents on the matter.

P.S. Sorry for going off-topic as much as I did.

Thanks for sharing your life with us Wickzki, I am all for giving people a second chance too:thumbsu::thumbsu::thumbsu:

Nothing wrong with going off-topic either, was fascinate reading :p:p:p
 

(Log in to remove this ad.)

Iamcarlton

Premiership Player
Joined
Oct 11, 2015
Posts
3,815
Likes
4,129
Location
Up North
AFL Club
Carlton
Jones is apparently out for 3 weeks so he is perhaps unlucky. He has been named emergency before so he may get 1 last chance.

KJ is done. That could go down as one of our worst trade blunders of all time!
And given Jaksch body shape has changed which can dramatically alter a players fortunes . It could also be one of the most pigheaded decisions to not atleast give him one last chance this season to press a claim to staying on . Guess they have their reasons .
 
Joined
Aug 26, 2004
Posts
65,037
Likes
73,240
Location
CHANEL BOUTIQUE!
AFL Club
Carlton
Other Teams
"Goddess"
Moderator #7,764
AFL to introduce lifetime free agency as part of forthcoming rule changes - Gil McLachlan

http://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/a...n/news-story/e2f9bd8a906cd22b199bc86f55874d94

THE AFL is poised to introduce lifetime free agency for players as part of a relaxing of the system under the new collective bargaining agreement with the AFLPA, according to league chief Gil McLachlan.

The change to the current model means that once a player becomes a free agent after eight years he will remain one for the remainder of his career, even after changing clubs.
It was one of three free agency options the AFL had been locked in debate with the AFLPA, but was considered the fairest model.
 
Joined
Aug 26, 2004
Posts
65,037
Likes
73,240
Location
CHANEL BOUTIQUE!
AFL Club
Carlton
Other Teams
"Goddess"
Moderator #7,765
If SOS was open to Cas leaving via FA at seasons end (band 3), do people think the Dogs would be open to giving us Cloke?
If he hasn't worked at the dogs and they don't see him in their future plans, it would allow them to increase their offer to JJ who is very important.
GOOD LORD! :straining:
 

jd2010

Brownlow Medallist
Joined
Feb 1, 2010
Posts
26,100
Likes
12,945
AFL Club
Carlton
Other Teams
Tottenham Hotspur
And given Jaksch body shape has changed which can dramatically alter a players fortunes . It could also be one of the most pigheaded decisions to not atleast give him one last chance this season to press a claim to staying on . Guess they have their reasons .
Has he changed body shape since the West Coast game last year that much?
 

Blue and Silver

Brownlow Medallist
Joined
Sep 15, 2009
Posts
10,536
Likes
9,431
Location
Brunswick
AFL Club
Carlton
Long Post Warning:

Ok time for a classic Blue & Silver over-thinking exercise.

The idea here is to document our current list and note future requirements.

To do so, I will make a couple of assumptions:

a) Any player who would start a season aged over 31 will be assumed to have retired. It's arbitrary, but better to have a hard rule then try and argue why one player might play on, and another won't.

b) All players currently listed will be assumed to be listed over the entire period. This is not because I expect they will be. By utilising this assumption I can project what holes we would have on our list based upon our current squad.

So first things first, what is our current list, broken down by player type:

Player Types: Small Forward (SF) Medium Forward (MF) Tall Forward (TF) Mid Forward (MidF) Inside Mid (IM) Outside Mid (OM) Ruck (R) Small Defender (SD) Medium Defender (MD) Tall Defender (TD)

Small Forward: Jed Lamb, Liam Sumner, Denis Armfield, Jarrod Pickett, Kym LeBois, Andrew Gallucci,
Medium Forward: Jack Silvagni, Charlie Curnow, Pat Kerr
Tall Forward: Harry McKay, Kristian Jaksch, Levi Casboult
Mid Forward: Rhys Palmer, Zac Fisher, Cameron Polson, Dale Thomas, Matthew Wright
Inside Mid: Bryce Gibbs, Patrick Cripps, David Cuningham, Nick Graham, Ed Curnow
Outside Mid: Marc Murphy, Sam Petrevski-Seton, Sam Kerridge, Blaine Boekhorst, Billie Smedts
Ruck: Matthew Kreuzer, Andrew Phillips, Daniel Gorringe, Matthew Korcheck
Small Defender: Kade Simpson, Dylan Buckley
Medium Defender: Sam Docherty, Lachie Plowman, Tom Williamson, Ciaran Byrne, Simon White, Ciaran Sheehan
Tall Defender: Liam Jones, Sam Rowe, Caleb Marchbank, Jacob Weitering, Harrison Macreadie, Jesse Glass-McCasker, Alex Silvagni

And now our best 22 next year, assuming all players over 31 retire:

B: Docherty (24), Rowe (30), Plowman (23)
HB: Williamson (19), Marchbank (22), Byrne (23)
C: Petrevski-Seton (20), Cripps (23), Murphy (30)
HF: Wright (28), Weitering (20), J. Silvagni (20)
F: Fisher (19), McKay (20), Sumner (24)
R: Kreuzer (28), Gibbs (29), E. Curnow (28)
I/C: C.Curnow (21), Lamb (25), Cuningham (20), Polson (20)

And the best 22 3 years from now:

B: Docherty (26), Macreadie (21), Plowman (25)
HB: Williamson (21), Marchbank (24), Byrne (26)
C: Petrevski-Seton (22) Cripps (25), Fisher (21)
HF: Wright (30) Weitering (22) J.Silvagni (22)
F: Pickett (23), McKay (22), Sumner (26)
R: Kreuzer (30) Cuningham (22) E.Curnow (30)
I/C: C.Curnow (23), Lamb (27), Smedts (26), Polson (22)

And 5 years:

B: Docherty (28) Macreadie (23) Plowman (27)
HB: Williamson (23) Marchbank (26) Byrne (28)
C: Petrevski-Seton (24) Cripps (27), Fisher (23)
HF: Polson (24) Weitering (24) J. Silvagni (24)
F: Pickett (25) McKay (24) Sumner (28)
R: Gorringe (30) Cuningham (24) C. Curnow (25)
I/C: Lamb (29), Smedts (28), Boekhorst (29) Kerridge (29)

So what does this tell us:

1. Our list is sufficiently young that we could feasibly field a team in 5 years of players 30 or younger from the current list.
2. The backline is effectively sorted (depth of course would need rejuvenation)
3. Our midfield would be dependent on Cuningham/Curnow/Fisher/Polson success. Could definitely use depth
4. Our forward line does not have enough long-term AFL goal-kicking power. An immediate priority.
5. A ruck project is needed for the long-term. Kreuzer/Phillips is good cover for the medium term but we need to draft/acquire a player who will be playing in 5 years. Gorringe is a long shot.

So our recruiting strategy should focus on, in order:

Goal-kicking forwards
Midfield talent
Project ruck
Backline depth

All players capable of being played 5 years from now.
 

dangerousdane

Premiership Player
Joined
Aug 16, 2015
Posts
4,518
Likes
4,632
AFL Club
Carlton
Other Teams
Arsenal
And why would we want Cloke? Guy is a liability on the football field at the moment
Our fwd line is the worst in the AFL, Cas is one of only a few expendable players.
We don't have a 2nd round pick.

If CAS leaves we need a replacement to take the heat off Silvagni, weitering, McKay.

I'm open to other players, who's your idea?
 

Cripps 'n' Blue Bloods

Sir Cripps of Carlton House
Joined
Mar 26, 2015
Posts
6,658
Likes
10,986
AFL Club
Carlton
Other Teams
Melbourne Tigers Philadelphia 76ers
If SOS was open to Cas leaving via FA at seasons end (band 3), do people think the Dogs would be open to giving us Cloke?
If he hasn't worked at the dogs and they don't see him in their future plans, it would allow them to increase their offer to JJ who is very important.
Apart from just being a bad decision, wouldn't the addition of Cloke negate any compo? As per Daisy/Eddie.
 

Iamcarlton

Premiership Player
Joined
Oct 11, 2015
Posts
3,815
Likes
4,129
Location
Up North
AFL Club
Carlton
Has he changed body shape since the West Coast game last year that much?
Yes that game certainly wasnt too impressive for him . I dont know the difference but he certainly looks much bigger this year . May not make any difference but atleast worth a crack considering our situation this year . Would be highly surprised if he didnt get a block of games .
 

dangerousdane

Premiership Player
Joined
Aug 16, 2015
Posts
4,518
Likes
4,632
AFL Club
Carlton
Other Teams
Arsenal
What?!!
Now that it seems that Levi has finally sorted out his kicking at goal (love yer work, Sav), NOW we trade him for Cloke?!!
Surely you jest. o_O

The only use Cloke would ever have been to us would have been to make Malthouse happy four years ago - and we would have had to sell the farm for the privilege.
Levi stays.
Cloke is 3 years older than Cas, as dodgy in front of goal as Cas ever was and not as good as a back-up ruckman.
Just to be clear, I never said anything about trading Cloke for CAS.
I said if Cas leaves, as he is entitled to as a FA (hopefully band 3) then would we look at Cloke to fill the void while the others develop. On the proviso that we got him for nothing as a dogs salary dump.

We have Kruz FA and Cas FA and Gibbs being courted by another club and no 2nd round pick. I know out of those 3 that Cas for mine is most expendable.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Top Bottom