Analysis 2017 List Management Discussion

Status
Not open for further replies.

(Log in to remove this ad.)

Joined
Oct 15, 2007
Posts
2,580
Likes
5,235
Location
Utah
AFL Club
Carlton
Other Teams
Liverpool, Thunder, Cowboys
Fair point. Not sure if there's a specific ruling. Daisy was a RFA, so technically both free agents. Thought it was about net gain vs loss.
I'm certainly not across it that well but would be very surprised if losing Cas as an UFA who'll make $500k some how would equate with pick up a DFA on minimum chips.
 

Blue__Balls

Norm Smith Medallist
Joined
Aug 22, 2014
Posts
6,186
Likes
16,449
AFL Club
Carlton
Definitely worked on net gain vs net loss.

If you lose a player worth Band 1 compo but pick one up worth Band 2, you might only get Band 2 or 3 compo.

Two like for like players pretty much cancel out and you get no compensation. Ditto recruiting a player worth more than the one you lost.

Not sure how DFA's fit into that, but you'd have to think they'd have minimal impact on compensation picks.
 

BIGGUS 64

Premiership Player
Joined
Feb 3, 2014
Posts
3,024
Likes
5,353
Location
Greensborough
AFL Club
Carlton
Just to be clear, I never said anything about trading Cloke for CAS.
I said if Cas leaves, as he is entitled to as a FA (hopefully band 3) then would we look at Cloke to fill the void while the others develop. On the proviso that we got him for nothing as a dogs salary dump.

We have Kruz FA and Cas FA and Gibbs being courted by another club and no 2nd round pick. I know out of those 3 that Cas for mine is most expendable.
Okay sorry, my bad.
You mentioned Cas, leaving and Cloke in the same sentence, so I surmised.
 
Joined
Oct 2, 2007
Posts
33,315
Likes
27,206
Location
Perth
AFL Club
Carlton
Moderator #7,782
4. Our forward line does not have enough long-term AFL goal-kicking power. An immediate priority.
Thats precisely what I've been saying.

We have a hell of a lot of eggs in the Harry McKay basket at present, and we're a year or two away from knowing with any certainty if he'll be that 60 goal a year KPF in the mold of (Hawkins, Kennedy, Cameron, Lynch, Franklin etc).

If he comes on, then its not just his own goal kicking that counts, but also the effect of him crashing packs, bring the ball to ground for the small forwards, and scaring the shit out of any defenders filling space.

Our biggest weakness is scoring firepower (lowest in the AFL for scores for the past few years, including this one) and the lack of a Key Forward (and its been this way largely since Fevola left, although we were able to compensate briefly with Betts, Walker and Garlett).

All I hear is people saying McKay will come good and Ben Silvagni will fill any deficiencies (a 16 year old kid that wont be drafted til the end of next year, might not get drafted, and if he does, is no guarantee to come to us, and even then we dont know if he'll even be any good if he does get drafted).

Im also deeply concerned about the midfield, but I see one more big goal kicking KPF as an absolute priority.

If we dont draft one, our only option is to obtain someone like Lynch, Patton or Cameron via Free Agency with a Buddy like contract, and we'll be competing with several other clubs for his signature. Those key forwards are hens teeth to find, which is why 19 year old like Boyd and Schache are attracting huge deals based on zero exposed form.
 

ParapMarkets

Premiership Player
Joined
Sep 24, 2015
Posts
3,264
Likes
5,881
Location
Perth
AFL Club
Carlton
I agree with you mate. I think we will be on the cusp of finals in 2019 (dependent on how we draft this year, and next, what free agents we pick up in 2018, and particularly depending on if McKay comes on to be a 40+ goal a year key forward by then).

We have soooooo much riding on our one Key Forward coming good. He's the key for mine; we need him developing into a 40+ goal a year key forward at least (60+ goals is the preferred benchmark) and I really dont like having so many eggs in just the one basket.



I disagree. A player taken at pick 20 (which is the probably compo if he leaves) will be better for our side in the window that opens in 2020 when we are pushing for top 4 and a serious finals side pushing for dominance of the comp. He (the player we pick at pick 20) will be 21 when the window opens, with 50 games and 3 years under his belt.

Matty Kruezer will be 32 when the window opens.

Presuming we trust SOS to find a good player with pick 20 (where we landed Fisher last year, and Macreadie and Williamson and Polson with much later picks) then if Kruezer gets offered a deal that places him in Band 2-3 compo range, we thank him for his 10 years of service to the club and wish him the best.

We do the same with Gibbs, offloading him and our third (39) for Adelaides 1st (say pick 17) and second (35).

We then have picks 3, 17, 21, 35, 57 in the top 60 to play with instead of picks 3, 39 and 57.
I just don't think the Kreuzer contract is all that clear cut. I understand where you are coming from but unfortunately we don't have any young talented ruckman on our list (Preuss would have been good), SOS would need a plan for our rucks before contemplating a trade of our best ruckman. We desperately need a quality young ruck in this years draft, especially given how long they take to develop.
 
Joined
Oct 2, 2007
Posts
33,315
Likes
27,206
Location
Perth
AFL Club
Carlton
Moderator #7,786
I just don't think the Kreuzer contract is all that clear cut. I understand where you are coming from but unfortunately we don't have any young talented ruckman on our list (Preuss would have been good), SOS would need a plan for our rucks before contemplating a trade of our best ruckman. We desperately need a quality young ruck in this years draft, especially given how long they take to develop.
Its not a trade. He is an uncontracted and unrestricted free agent. He just... gets a big offer and leaves.

We cant make him stay. Even if we decide to match or better an offer from a rival club (and it might be a very large offer in the 650-700k over 3-4 years range) he can decline our offer and move anyway. He's unrestricted.

We've shown in the past that we wont pay overs for players, and are prepared for them to leave as free agents to other clubs for compensation (Tuohy, Kruezer).
 

(Log in to remove this ad.)

CsBlue

Debutant
Joined
Sep 5, 2013
Posts
78
Likes
109
AFL Club
Carlton
On current form Jaksch could be getting a game at a couple of other clubs right now. I suspect the plan will be to bring him in towards the end of the year simply to pump up his trade value. If he performs well for a small sample of 3-4 games then he may attract some interest.
 

BrisbaneCFC

Premiership Player
Joined
Sep 1, 2016
Posts
4,635
Likes
5,578
AFL Club
Carlton
Just to be clear, I never said anything about trading Cloke for CAS.
I said if Cas leaves, as he is entitled to as a FA (hopefully band 3) then would we look at Cloke to fill the void while the others develop. On the proviso that we got him for nothing as a dogs salary dump.

We have Kruz FA and Cas FA and Gibbs being courted by another club and no 2nd round pick. I know out of those 3 that Cas for mine is most expendable.
They are all expendable at seasons end.
 

BrisbaneCFC

Premiership Player
Joined
Sep 1, 2016
Posts
4,635
Likes
5,578
AFL Club
Carlton
Thats precisely what I've been saying.

We have a hell of a lot of eggs in the Harry McKay basket at present, and we're a year or two away from knowing with any certainty if he'll be that 60 goal a year KPF in the mold of (Hawkins, Kennedy, Cameron, Lynch, Franklin etc).

If he comes on, then its not just his own goal kicking that counts, but also the effect of him crashing packs, bring the ball to ground for the small forwards, and scaring the shit out of any defenders filling space.

Our biggest weakness is scoring firepower (lowest in the AFL for scores for the past few years, including this one) and the lack of a Key Forward (and its been this way largely since Fevola left, although we were able to compensate briefly with Betts, Walker and Garlett).

All I hear is people saying McKay will come good and Ben Silvagni will fill any deficiencies (a 16 year old kid that wont be drafted til the end of next year, might not get drafted, and if he does, is no guarantee to come to us, and even then we dont know if he'll even be any good if he does get drafted).

Im also deeply concerned about the midfield, but I see one more big goal kicking KPF as an absolute priority.

If we dont draft one, our only option is to obtain someone like Lynch, Patton or Cameron via Free Agency with a Buddy like contract, and we'll be competing with several other clubs for his signature. Those key forwards are hens teeth to find, which is why 19 year old like Boyd and Schache are attracting huge deals based on zero exposed form.
You can add that year 11 student named Ben to this basket of eggs too.
 

jd2010

Brownlow Medallist
Joined
Feb 1, 2010
Posts
26,100
Likes
12,945
AFL Club
Carlton
Other Teams
Tottenham Hotspur
He did. But pick 10? And to agree on the trade before the trade period had even begun?
Looking back on it we had pick 12 from BL for Fev and spunked it on Kane Lucas anyway so doubt we'd have done much with pick 10 which was used on Gysberts.

We were never linked to Fyfe in the lead up to that draft. If anything we'd have taken Tapscott or Aaron Black lol
 

HavUEvaSeenTheRain

Premiership Player
Joined
Apr 20, 2006
Posts
3,766
Likes
3,284
AFL Club
Carlton
Thats precisely what I've been saying.

We have a hell of a lot of eggs in the Harry McKay basket at present, and we're a year or two away from knowing with any certainty if he'll be that 60 goal a year KPF in the mold of (Hawkins, Kennedy, Cameron, Lynch, Franklin etc).

If he comes on, then its not just his own goal kicking that counts, but also the effect of him crashing packs, bring the ball to ground for the small forwards, and scaring the shit out of any defenders filling space.

Our biggest weakness is scoring firepower (lowest in the AFL for scores for the past few years, including this one) and the lack of a Key Forward (and its been this way largely since Fevola left, although we were able to compensate briefly with Betts, Walker and Garlett).

All I hear is people saying McKay will come good and Ben Silvagni will fill any deficiencies (a 16 year old kid that wont be drafted til the end of next year, might not get drafted, and if he does, is no guarantee to come to us, and even then we dont know if he'll even be any good if he does get drafted).

Im also deeply concerned about the midfield, but I see one more big goal kicking KPF as an absolute priority.

If we dont draft one, our only option is to obtain someone like Lynch, Patton or Cameron via Free Agency with a Buddy like contract, and we'll be competing with several other clubs for his signature. Those key forwards are hens teeth to find, which is why 19 year old like Boyd and Schache are attracting huge deals based on zero exposed form.
For me McKay and Pickett are about the most important players in our rebuild. If they come on we are about set in the backline and forwardline (obviously minor improvements needed) if they dont come off we have pretty much gone nowhere over the last two off seasons. With all our trading our net result would be something like

(Very rough estimates)
Out: Tuohy, pick 20odd, pick 8, pick 19, Pick 21 and pick 28.
In: (Actual future players) Curnow, Marchbank and Plowman.

We also have taking millions of dollars of salary for players with no future.

Obviously I'm not counting Weitering, SPS, Fisher, Cunners :), and players taken with later picks because we are given those picks for ladder position or we would have had picks around that mark anyway for those players.

For me if McKay and Pickett make it which I'm very confident they will I give the last two off seasons an A+ if not then about a C
 

ParapMarkets

Premiership Player
Joined
Sep 24, 2015
Posts
3,264
Likes
5,881
Location
Perth
AFL Club
Carlton
Its not a trade. He is an uncontracted and unrestricted free agent. He just... gets a big offer and leaves.

We cant make him stay. Even if we decide to match or better an offer from a rival club (and it might be a very large offer in the 650-700k over 3-4 years range) he can decline our offer and move anyway. He's unrestricted.

We've shown in the past that we wont pay overs for players, and are prepared for them to leave as free agents to other clubs for compensation (Tuohy, Kruezer).
Yeah, wrong choice of words on my behalf. I still think the ball remains in our court in regards to him staying. I remember when Preuss was drafted, there was talk at the time that we were interested in him but didn't take him, that was (another) poor decision as he looks quite promising.

If we can get a good young ruckman in this draft, I think Kreuzer would be extremely handy in showing him the ropes and taking the major role until he develops. With the way some of our players are playing in the VFL there may be a few other options for SOS to get the draft picks we need/want without opening up a big hole on our list.
 

jd2010

Brownlow Medallist
Joined
Feb 1, 2010
Posts
26,100
Likes
12,945
AFL Club
Carlton
Other Teams
Tottenham Hotspur
How is Pickett going in the magoos? Haven't watched a full game yet but read the reports on the carlton site each week and is struggling a bit.

For those who've watched him a lot this year and perhaps even as a junior can you explain to me why he isn't another Clem Smith?
 

HARKER

Hall of Famer
Joined
Oct 15, 2008
Posts
49,883
Likes
64,015
Location
Melbourne
AFL Club
Carlton
How is Pickett going in the magoos? Haven't watched a full game yet but read the reports on the carlton site each week and is struggling a bit.
For those who've watched him a lot this year and perhaps even as a junior can you explain to me why he isn't another Clem Smith?
He's no Clem Smith. Pickett gets around the ground with a lot more purpose that Clem ever could.

Recall watching Clem get to the contest too late and often giving away silly frees.
It's almost as though he played 5 seconds behind the game.

Picketts most promising game was two weeks ago when he played in the back-line.
Moved through traffic well and was quite creative. That's all I have. All too early just yet.
 
Joined
Oct 2, 2007
Posts
33,315
Likes
27,206
Location
Perth
AFL Club
Carlton
Moderator #7,797
Yeah, wrong choice of words on my behalf. I still think the ball remains in our court in regards to him staying. I remember when Preuss was drafted, there was talk at the time that we were interested in him but didn't take him, that was (another) poor decision as he looks quite promising.

If we can get a good young ruckman in this draft, I think Kreuzer would be extremely handy in showing him the ropes and taking the major role until he develops. With the way some of our players are playing in the VFL there may be a few other options for SOS to get the draft picks we need/want without opening up a big hole on our list.
We might have to make a tough call this year if he gets a (band 2 or 3) offer. Band 2 is Pick 19 compo, and Band 3 is a pick after our 2nd rounder (with presuming a finish of 3rd last, becomes pick 22).

So its pick 20odd if Kruezer leaves (getting us back in the early 2nd round, where we currently dont have a pick).

You would have to think we would take the compo and let him leave, then rely on Phillips for a year or two while we continue with the rebuild, and then do what all top sides do and buy a ruckman as a free agent when we are in contention for top 4 (2020 onwards).
 

ParapMarkets

Premiership Player
Joined
Sep 24, 2015
Posts
3,264
Likes
5,881
Location
Perth
AFL Club
Carlton
Thats precisely what I've been saying.

We have a hell of a lot of eggs in the Harry McKay basket at present, and we're a year or two away from knowing with any certainty if he'll be that 60 goal a year KPF in the mold of (Hawkins, Kennedy, Cameron, Lynch, Franklin etc).

If he comes on, then its not just his own goal kicking that counts, but also the effect of him crashing packs, bring the ball to ground for the small forwards, and scaring the shit out of any defenders filling space.

Our biggest weakness is scoring firepower (lowest in the AFL for scores for the past few years, including this one) and the lack of a Key Forward (and its been this way largely since Fevola left, although we were able to compensate briefly with Betts, Walker and Garlett).

All I hear is people saying McKay will come good and Ben Silvagni will fill any deficiencies (a 16 year old kid that wont be drafted til the end of next year, might not get drafted, and if he does, is no guarantee to come to us, and even then we dont know if he'll even be any good if he does get drafted).

Im also deeply concerned about the midfield, but I see one more big goal kicking KPF as an absolute priority.

If we dont draft one, our only option is to obtain someone like Lynch, Patton or Cameron via Free Agency with a Buddy like contract, and we'll be competing with several other clubs for his signature. Those key forwards are hens teeth to find, which is why 19 year old like Boyd and Schache are attracting huge deals based on zero exposed form.
Lynch is a free agent at the end of next season, if we are going to spend big on a key forward this the guy. He comes out of contract at the end of next year, gives us time to accumulate young talent (especially through the midfield), and time to assess how our young forwards are developing.
 

HavUEvaSeenTheRain

Premiership Player
Joined
Apr 20, 2006
Posts
3,766
Likes
3,284
AFL Club
Carlton
How is Pickett going in the magoos? Haven't watched a full game yet but read the reports on the carlton site each week and is struggling a bit.

For those who've watched him a lot this year and perhaps even as a junior can you explain to me why he isn't another Clem Smith?
He plays nothing like Clem and is a lot smarter footballer. If it's fitness you are referring to then I think we will have to give him this preseason to find out. He was an extremely fit junior so finger crossed he gets back to that
 

ParapMarkets

Premiership Player
Joined
Sep 24, 2015
Posts
3,264
Likes
5,881
Location
Perth
AFL Club
Carlton
He plays nothing like Clem and is a lot smarter footballer. If it's fitness you are referring to then I think we will have to give him this preseason to find out. He was an extremely fit junior so finger crossed he gets back to that
There really is no comparison between Smith and Pickett. I think he did a good job to get into the team for round 1 after some good pre-season form considering where he was coming from injury-wise. I think next season is where we will start to see the best of Pickett as he was always going to struggle with his fitness this year, a long way to go but I am still quite bullish on his chances of a long career. Loved his pre-season game against the Dockers, you can see what he can do he just needs to build up his fitness after a long layoff.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Top Bottom