This doesn't factor in the improvement of SPS, Fisher, Cuningham, Curnow and possibly Williamson as midfielders. As 20-21 y.o. next season, these guys will be the same age as lachie Hunter, Bontempelli, Caleb Daniel were last year and as such I am confident they can have similar impact.
Current projections factor that most of those you named 'come on' to be A grade players.
Even should that happen, the playing list is still short, and 22-23 y/olds dont win flags let alone a side comprising 8 or 9 20 year olds. They need at least 50-100 games of playing togeher the be a force. And not 50-100 games of playing together and getting flogged by 60+; they need to be in those games to their eyeballs (this is why we have retained senior players and not gone 'full Melbourne').
That said we still need more talent to replace the older guys who wont be around when the window opens. Most of those players you named are playing alongside (Murphy, Gibbs, Thomas, Kruezer, Simpson, E Curnow, Casboult, ASOS and until recently, Rowe) all of whom we need to find replacements for who are just as good (or better). Thats nine players. We also need to stengthen the forward line (our worst line), while keeping an eye towards replacements for those nine players (most of whom play in the midfield).
That will take another 3 years of drafting to achieve. At least. Assuming we nail every pick. Replacing those players named with players of even equal qaulity will be a tall mountain to achieve in 3 years if you think about it.
Bolton will have this side humming round 1 next year.
That is simply crazy talk. There is no way we can come from blowing all our draft picks for 7 years (barring Cripps), and fixing that in 2 drafts and suddenly be competing again.
We are
resetting this list. This year its 22-23 years and under. If you're over that reset 'line' you're a placeholder and nothign more.
The plan has never been to aquire a bunch of kids to play alongside Murphy, Gibbs and Kruezer and help the latter push for a flag assault.
The plan is to retain those senior blokes (Murph, Gibbs and MK) while we 'reset' the list with kids. The older blokes are just there to protect the kids while we get them in.
We are aiming to assemble a side that will be flag competitive by 2020 and will remain so for the 5 years that follow. The only value the senior players have is experience and hard AFL bodies that prevent us getting utterly flogged; and buy us time to aquire replacements via the draft.
They wont play finals again, and they wont be part of 17. Thats just the reality of what we are doing. They exist to stop our kids from getting smashed and destroying our culture. They are placeholders.
We are (like the Saints and Dogs before us) in a position to strategically lose a player or two each year for draft picks (not gut the list like Melbourne did - which set them back 10 years).
This year Gibbs will depart for a 1st round draft pick. Its possible (probable even) that one of Casboult or Kruezer leaves as a free agent (although there is the rumor that MK has a contract extension which complciates the matter).
We need to find 8 A grade players, at least 2-3 of whom are elite over the next 3 draft/ trade periods to get the list into its final shape for 2020. The more draft picks we get in, the greater our chances of uncovering a future star, and the more currency we have to trade in blokes we need.
Not all the players we pick will make the grade. Not even all 1st rounders we pick will. But we need to:
1) Maximise our presence at the pointy end of the draft
2) Draft wisely and nail our picks
3) Acquire a 60 goal a year forward as our number 1 drafting priority
4) Acquire 5-6 gun A grade/ elite midfielders as our number 2 priority (to replace Gibbs, Murphy, Simpson, Curnow, Thomas)
5) Acquire 1 gun ruckman to replace Kruezer
And we have 3 drafts/trades to get this done. All player traded in must by 23 and under (this year) with that 'line' increasing by 1 year each year (24 and under is the age profile next year, and 25 and under is the age profile in 2019). We will focus on the draft, get in the kids, and use a massive warchest for free agents in 2018 and 2019 to plug any remaining holes.
2020 is when we will be competing. Till then, 'green shoots' and 'road map'.