Analysis 2017 List Management Discussion

[Jeremias]

No problems. What about the latter?

There are 60 or so names on that list. Many will be crossed off over the next 10 months or so as they re-sign or fail to produce.

Of most interest to me are the 4 top tier talents available, and the dozen or so who sit on the tier below:

Tier 1
1. Fyfe (FA)
2. Martin (FA)
3. Shiel
4. Josh Kelly

Tier 2
1. Menzel (FA)
2. Breust (FA)
3. Grundy
4. Fantasia
5. Jack Martin
6. Touk Miller
7. Peter Wright
8. Hopper
9. Devon Smith
10. Patton
11. Darling

All of the above are of interest to me - some obvious, others perhaps less so.

With the money we will have at our disposal it wouldn't surprise should one of the above - possibly more - be wearing navy blue in 2018.

 

[La Dispute]

I reckon Wright will be high on our list of priorities. It's smart to target Vic kids in expansion clubs, particularly early on. Hopper would be a nice addition and would round out our future midfield. Josh Kelly is another gun and worth evaluating. He might command a pretty big deal by the end of next year.

Devon Smith will end up at Geelong. Maybe Motlop will be traded?

I'd like us to retain our picks this year, but we should certainly consider trading our first rounder next year.

 

[thylacine60]

Thought it sad we were looking to the November draft this year as early as March - seems we're looking to next November as far out as December!

 

[La Dispute]

Thought it sad we were looking to the November draft this year as early as March - seems we're looking to next November as far out as December!

It's the off-season - plenty of divergent discussion and projection. Even Round 1 is still 5 months away.

It also allows us to extend the list management discussion and really flesh out our future side, including all future GWS guns. Looking forward to the 2020 centreline of Shiel, Setterfield and Kennedy.

 

[thylacine60]

holy ravioli!

 

[therubbernub]

Not certain he's got a massive future but he'll fill a need.

Sorta like a junkie ?

 

[Big Sim is Back]

There are 60 or so names on that list. Many will be crossed off over the next 10 months or so as they re-sign or fail to produce.

Of most interest to me are the 4 top tier talents available, and the dozen or so who sit on the tier below:

Tier 1
1. Fyfe (FA)
2. Martin (FA)
3. Shiel
4. Josh Kelly

Tier 2
1. Menzel (FA)
2. Breust (FA)
3. Grundy
4. Fantasia
5. Jack Martin
6. Touk Miller
7. Peter Wright
8. Hopper
9. Devon Smith
10. Patton
11. Darling

All of the above are of interest to me - some obvious, others perhaps less so.

With the money we will have at our disposal it wouldn't surprise should one of the above - possibly more - be wearing navy blue in 2018.

That's a tasty menu J. Can I order a Shiel with a Hopper and a Wright on the side and a Miller for dessert?

 

[Funk]

Rogers was woeful, I'd hate to think what our list would look like if he was still at the club.
2014 does have MM fingerprints all over it, but still one player of note from 3 or 4 drafts is a piss poor record.
To think, we were Essendon not using its players as pin cushions away from Cripps potentially not being at the club.
Think SOS has done a amazing job, at the end of 2014 our list was in a shocking state, just two years later and we seem to have so much more young talent and players with genuine potential at the club.
Another year or two of building through the draft and we could have one of the best young list in the league, that would have been unthinkable not long ago.

It seems that Rogers may have been too nice a guy.

It seems that he was far too transparent in his dealings and concerned about being seen as "fair" in dealings with players and other clubs.

Players knew we were taking them, he telegraphed who was being delisted, media people knew who our draft picks were going to be.

Other clubs took advantage of this.

SOS is smart and ruthless- just what we need.

 

[agro]

Rogers made it public knowledge that we were going to take Boekhurst. Adrian Dodoro from Essendon then told Boekhurst Essendon were going to take him with their second pick (even though they had no intention of doing so).

We picked Boekhurst at 19 - Dodoro literally was kacking himself with laughter at the draft table and waltzed in to pick Laverde.

 

[ShanDog]

That's a tasty menu J. Can I order a Shiel with a Hopper and a Wright on the side and a Miller for dessert?

Oooh that would be tatsy. I'm maybe a little more conscious of cost, so I'll have to just order the Shiel and finish with Wright - anything left over can go to buying some gold label scotch!

 

[Blue__Balls]

There are 60 or so names on that list. Many will be crossed off over the next 10 months or so as they re-sign or fail to produce.

Of most interest to me are the 4 top tier talents available, and the dozen or so who sit on the tier below:

Tier 1
1. Fyfe (FA)
2. Martin (FA)
3. Shiel
4. Josh Kelly

Tier 2
1. Menzel (FA)
2. Breust (FA)
3. Grundy
4. Fantasia
5. Jack Martin
6. Touk Miller
7. Peter Wright
8. Hopper
9. Devon Smith
10. Patton
11. Darling

All of the above are of interest to me - some obvious, others perhaps less so.

With the money we will have at our disposal it wouldn't surprise should one of the above - possibly more - be wearing navy blue in 2018.

If we can get a Fyfe or Shiel, fantastic, but tempering expectations probably isn't a bad thing this early in the piece.

Of that list, and considering our own position, I'd like to see us make a serious play for Breust and Wright.

Breust adds some solid leadership credentials in our forward line, would work well in tandem with Jack, and would allow for Charlie to spend more time in the midfield. Wright replaces Casboult, which allows Harry to take the starting spot of either Kreuzer or Phillips and play as a key forward/resting ruck.

In terms of cost, I reckon Breust comes for $700-800k, which we can comfortably afford, while we should be able to secure Wright using whatever we get for a potential Gibbs trade if that whole saga rears its head again (if not, send GC our 2018 first rounder plus a surplus to needs player). Means we can still hit the draft with our first rounder and we can afford to splash some cash to extend our young guns contracts into the next decade.

2018
FB: Sheehan, Marchbank, Weitering
HB: Docherty, Plowman, Byrne
C: Cuningham, C. Curnow, Pickett
R: Kreuzer/Phillips, Cripps, Petrevski-Seton
HF: Breust, Wright, Fisher
FF: Silvagni, McKay, Murphy
INT: E. Curnow, Sumner, Polson, Macreadie

(Question mark over Sheehan's long-term fitness - reckon Williamson could be a really good fit here if he comes on).

 

[Aphrodite]

2017 free agents

Adelaide
Andy Otten
Sam Shaw

Brisbane
Claye Beams
Ryan Harwood
Tom Rockliff

Carlton
Levi Casboult
Matthew Kreuzer
Kade Simpson
Simon White

Collingwood
Tyson Goldsack
Lachlan Keefe
Ben Sinclair
Josh Thomas

Essendon
Heath Hocking
Ben Howlett
Brent Stanton
Jobe Watson
David Zaharakis

Fremantle
Hayden Ballantyne
Nat Fyfe
Garrick Ibbotson
Michael Johnson
David Mundy
Aaron Sandilands
Nick Suban

Geelong
Andrew Mackie
Daniel Menzel
Steven Motlop

Gold Coast
Rory Thompson

Hawthorn
Grant Birchall
Luke Breust
Shaun Burgoyne
Taylor Duryea
Josh Gibson
Luke Hodge
Ryan Schoenmakers

Melbourne
Jake Spencer
Jack Trengove

North Melbourne
Lachlan Hansen
Scott Thompson

Port Adelaide
Jasper Pittard
Jackson Trengove
Justin Westhoff

Richmond
Dustin Martin

St Kilda
Sean Dempster
Sam Gilbert
Leigh Montagna
Nick Riewoldt

Sydney
Heath Grundy
Josh Kennedy
Jarrad McVeigh
Sam Reid

West Coast
Josh Kennedy
Mark LeCras
Eric Mackenzie
Matt Priddis

Western Bulldogs
Matthew Boyd
Dale Morris
Robert Murphy
Liam Picken


RoyalParade


http://www.afl.com.au/news/2016-10-21/2017-free-agents-fyfe-dusty-head-big-names

 

[ShanDog]

Josh Kennedy back to Carlton!

 

[Carl]

If we can get a Fyfe or Shiel, fantastic, but tempering expectations probably isn't a bad thing this early in the piece.

Of that list, and considering our own position, I'd like to see us make a serious play for Breust and Wright.

Breust adds some solid leadership credentials in our forward line, would work well in tandem with Jack, and would allow for Charlie to spend more time in the midfield. Wright replaces Casboult, which allows Harry to take the starting spot of either Kreuzer or Phillips and play as a key forward/resting ruck.

In terms of cost, I reckon Breust comes for $700-800k, which we can comfortably afford, while we should be able to secure Wright using whatever we get for a potential Gibbs trade if that whole saga rears its head again (if not, send GC our 2018 first rounder plus a surplus to needs player). Means we can still hit the draft with our first rounder and we can afford to splash some cash to extend our young guns contracts into the next decade.

2018
FB: Sheehan, Marchbank, Weitering
HB: Docherty, Plowman, Byrne
C: Cuningham, C. Curnow, Pickett
R: Kreuzer/Phillips, Cripps, Petrevski-Seton
HF: Breust, Wright, Fisher
FF: Silvagni, McKay, Murphy
INT: E. Curnow, Sumner, Polson, Macreadie

(Question mark over Sheehan's long-term fitness - reckon Williamson could be a really good fit here if he comes on).

Here we go again. Getting players at over inflated prices. This is not how you build a premiership team and keep team harmony. To think a half forward flank is worth over $700k is crazy. To start trading out future 1st rounders when your a bottom 3 team is even more crazy.

 

[ray8182]

Rogers made it public knowledge that we were going to take Boekhurst. Adrian Dodoro from Essendon then told Boekhurst Essendon were going to take him with their second pick (even though they had no intention of doing so).

We picked Boekhurst at 19 - Dodoro literally was kacking himself with laughter at the draft table and waltzed in to pick Laverde.

Did you put 2 and 2 together coming up with that yourself or did you hear that from someone involved in the afl?


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

 

[agro]

Did you put 2 and 2 together coming up with that yourself or did you hear that from someone involved in the afl?


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

The latter.

 

[Blue__Balls]

Here we go again. Getting players at over inflated prices. This is not how you build a premiership team and keep team harmony. To think a half forward flank is worth over $700k is crazy. To start trading out future 1st rounders when your a bottom 3 team is even more crazy.

Here we go again? Offer some actual cohesive discussion instead of ragging on other people's ideas. Here's my thinking:

Player contracts are going up, it's only a matter of time before the new pay deal goes through and the salary cap jumps accordingly. Futhermore, Free Agents (the kind you want, anyway) typically get inflated price tags as well. $700k for a 27 year old forward who has never kicked less than 30 goals in a season (that was his debut season in 2011, he's been kicking 40+ a year since then including two seasons of 50+), who also costs us nothing in a trade - good deal.

And if we're still a bottom 3 team in 2018 then this reset has failed spectacularly. Our 2018 first rounder should be somewhere from Pick 8-14, and with Ben Silvagni considered at this stage to be a potential first rounder, we'd be able to get him with later picks anyway under the Father/Son system. Or, as I said, trade whatever we get for Gibbs if he leaves (Gibbs for Wright is a good deal for us in 12 months time).

Anything to add?

 

[Metalcrusher]

AFL will screw us in 2018 with Father / Son .... just wait and see.

 

[ShanDog]

Here we go again? Offer some actual cohesive discussion instead of ragging on other people's ideas. Here's my thinking:

Player contracts are going up, it's only a matter of time before the new pay deal goes through and the salary cap jumps accordingly. Futhermore, Free Agents (the kind you want, anyway) typically get inflated price tags as well. $700k for a 27 year old forward who has never kicked less than 30 goals in a season (that was his debut season in 2011, he's been kicking 40+ a year since then including two seasons of 50+), who also costs us nothing in a trade - good deal.

And if we're still a bottom 3 team in 2018 then this reset has failed spectacularly. Our 2018 first rounder should be somewhere from Pick 8-14, and with Ben Silvagni considered at this stage to be a potential first rounder, we'd be able to get him with later picks anyway under the Father/Son system. Or, as I said, trade whatever we get for Gibbs if he leaves (Gibbs for Wright is a good deal for us in 12 months time).

Anything to add?

Pick 8-14? Holy s**t, them some lofty expectations of next year you have. I hope it works out that way, but I think you're in for some disappointment.

 

[Jeremias]

I reckon Wright will be high on our list of priorities. It's smart to target Vic kids in expansion clubs, particularly early on. Hopper would be a nice addition and would round out our future midfield. Josh Kelly is another gun and worth evaluating. He might command a pretty big deal by the end of next year.

We will definitely be interested in Wright - as will 9 other Victorian clubs if he decides to come home.

A 2018 forward line containing Wright, McKay, Curnow, Silvagni and Pickett would be seriously exciting and would allow for extra run in the side given we'd be able to play just one genuine ruckman.

Kelly and Hopper are both terrific young footballers and I would be thrilled to see either in navy blue. By the end of the year I expect Kelly to be considered among the best midfielders in the game. Hopper is not at that level and may look elsewhere given he is not guaranteed senior football this year, even with Steele gone and Whitfield suspended for the first part of the season.

Devon Smith will end up at Geelong. Maybe Motlop will be traded?

There has been plenty of talk linking Smith to Geelong so that would not surprise. Motlop should be traded but I don't know who would take him - maybe Richmond are after another boom recruit.

I'd like us to retain our picks this year, but we should certainly consider trading our first rounder next year.

I agree with this.

We will almost certainly have a top 5 pick in next year's draft and we should be taking it to the draft rather than sending it elsewhere.

We have brought a significant amount of young talent into the club over the past two years but I think we need (at least) one more year of the same.

The introduction of trading future picks has already proved advantageous for us and SOS has showed he is willing to deal with the relative unknown. I am generally in favour of 'trading forward', ie. trading future picks either for players or draft picks in the current year, and hope we do so at the end of next season.

With no second round pick as things currently stand, we'll certainly need to find a way to get back into the draft and that won't just be through hoping for strong FA compensation.

That's a tasty menu J. Can I order a Shiel with a Hopper and a Wright on the side and a Miller for dessert?

All eyes will be on Wright at the Suns but Miller is someone I'd really go after. Very good young footballer and a Victorian boy too. The Suns wouldn't want to have another poor year in 2017 or they may well lose some serious talent yet again.

In terms of cost, I reckon Breust comes for $700-800k

Breust I'd certainly take as a FA but not at that sort of money. There's probably only one small forward in the league worth close to that amount of money and we let him walk to Adelaide.

We'll have to overpay for Breust but that doesn't mean handing him a contract which would probably be worth double what he's currently on at the Hawks. If we're speaking to Breust I'm selling him on the opportunity to join an up and coming side as a leader rather than on funding his retirement.

 

[Blue__Balls]

Pick 8-14? Holy s**t, them some lofty expectations of next year you have. I hope it works out that way, but I think you're in for some disappointment.

2018, Shan.

Weitering, McKay, Curnow Silvagni and Cuningham in their third year at the club.
SPS and Fisher in their second.
Recruit Breust and Wright to bolster the forward line even more.

If we're not genuinely contending to get into the top 8 in 2018 then something has gone wrong.

 

[Big Sim is Back]

All eyes will be on Wright at the Suns but Miller is someone I'd really go after. Very good young footballer and a Victorian boy too. The Suns wouldn't want to have another poor year in 2017 or they may well lose some serious talent yet again.

Was defintiely one we could have got and I wish we had. Just the type we need. Him and SPS...oo boy

 

[Jeremias]

Was defintiely one we could have got and I wish we had.

Not really. We only had 2 picks in the draft prior to him being selected.

 

[ShanDog]

2018, Shan.

Weitering, McKay, Curnow Silvagni and Cuningham in their third year at the club.
SPS and Fisher in their second.
Recruit Breust and Wright to bolster the forward line even more.

If we're not genuinely contending to get into the top 8 in 2018 then something has gone wrong.

Ah right. Your post said our 2018 first rounder should be 8-14 - I kinda skimmed over the post a bit so I didn't realise what you meant.

Agree, in 2018 we should be pushing for a top 8 spot. Anything can happen but it will still be another year or two before we can challenge for a flag.

 

[therubbernub]

In terms of cost, I reckon Breust comes for $700-800k

FMD no!