Analysis 2017 List Management Discussion

[Blue__Balls]

FMD no!

Vickery secured $500k a year - Breust worth more than Vickery - new pay deal imminent (likely pay and salary cap increase) = Breust going at $700k+ in my view. If we can get him for less, of course we'd take it, but if he moves at the end of next season there will be some big dollars thrown around.

He's a durable, reliable forward who would give us 45 goals a year and probably win a few games off his own boot. If Dale Thomas' output in the last 3 years had been on par with Luke Breust's, would you have been happy with his acquisition?

 

[therubbernub]

lets not bring DT into it - thats another story.
But surely Vickery as a KPF free agent is going to demand more than a small forward who is not in the same league as betts/Rioli.
My concern would be how effective Breust would be outside the Hawks setup

 

[rp84]

lets not bring DT into it - thats another story.
But surely Vickery as a KPF free agent is going to demand more than a small forward who is not in the same league as betts/Rioli.
My concern would be how effective Breust would be outside the Hawks setup

We will get a good idea this year in a much weaker squad. If Mitchell and Omeara bomb, they will sit around 7-10. If he s still kicking 45+ goals, he will keep value around 500-600k/yr IMO.

Just turned 26, so would play for us as a 27yo onwards. If he was a couple years younger, I would be keener. Not sure we need to blow our wad on a good but not great small forward. Would see what we have in Sumner and Lebois first (add to that Fisher,Picket and SPS will all need time as a forward as they won't all be playing a heap of mid time in 2017).

 

[therubbernub]

We will get a good idea this year in a much weaker squad. If Mitchell and Omeara bomb, they will sit around 7-10. If he s still kicking 45+ goals, he will keep value around 500-600k/yr IMO.

spot on

 

[harrisendblue]

If we can get a Fyfe or Shiel, fantastic, but tempering expectations probably isn't a bad thing this early in the piece.

Of that list, and considering our own position, I'd like to see us make a serious play for Breust and Wright.

Breust adds some solid leadership credentials in our forward line, would work well in tandem with Jack, and would allow for Charlie to spend more time in the midfield. Wright replaces Casboult, which allows Harry to take the starting spot of either Kreuzer or Phillips and play as a key forward/resting ruck.

In terms of cost, I reckon Breust comes for $700-800k, which we can comfortably afford, while we should be able to secure Wright using whatever we get for a potential Gibbs trade if that whole saga rears its head again (if not, send GC our 2018 first rounder plus a surplus to needs player). Means we can still hit the draft with our first rounder and we can afford to splash some cash to extend our young guns contracts into the next decade.

2018
FB: Sheehan, Marchbank, Weitering
HB: Docherty, Plowman, Byrne
C: Cuningham, C. Curnow, Pickett
R: Kreuzer/Phillips, Cripps, Petrevski-Seton
HF: Breust, Wright, Fisher
FF: Silvagni, McKay, Murphy
INT: E. Curnow, Sumner, Polson, Macreadie

(Question mark over Sheehan's long-term fitness - reckon Williamson could be a really good fit here if he comes on).

Its always good to have aspirations however for mine I would focus on shiel, either hooper/kennedy and patton.

I would stay clear of bruest because hopefully one of the kids we draftered this year can play that role.

No need to explain shiel and either of hooper/kennedy should be gettable and in our age profile. My preference for patton over wright is that i would much rather a pure forward and one who is a huge upgrade on Levi. From what ive seen 2mtr peter is a natural ruckman who has played forward - good player but i would rather the pure big marking central target forward.

 

[Coona Blues]

Its always good to have aspirations however for mine I would focus on shiel, either hooper/kennedy and patton.

I would stay clear of bruest because hopefully one of the kids we draftered this year can play that role.

No need to explain shiel and either of hooper/kennedy should be gettable and in our age profile. My preference for patton over wright is that i would much rather a pure forward and one who is a huge upgrade on Levi. From what ive seen 2mtr peter is a natural ruckman who has played forward - good player but i would rather the pure big marking central target forward.

Not sure how much you watch mate, Peter Wright is key forward first and ruck second. He is a kid who is mobile, can get separation on the lead, kick them from beyond 50, and is no slouch on the ground, oh and a handy back up ruckman.
IMO only has his captain Lynch in front of him as a young KPF, yep rate him above Cameron, Patton, Hogan, Boyd (maybe has the upside).
Of course might struggle to top Harry McKay in a year or 2

 

[Metalcrusher]

We will get a good idea this year in a much weaker squad. If Mitchell and Omeara bomb, they will sit around 7-10. If he s still kicking 45+ goals, he will keep value around 500-600k/yr IMO.

Just turned 26, so would play for us as a 27yo onwards. If he was a couple years younger, I would be keener. Not sure we need to blow our wad on a good but not great small forward. Would see what we have in Sumner and Lebois first (add to that Fisher,Picket and SPS will all need time as a forward as they won't all be playing a heap of mid time in 2017).

spot on

Its always good to have aspirations however for mine I would focus on shiel, either hooper/kennedy and patton.

I would stay clear of bruest because hopefully one of the kids we draftered this year can play that role.

No need to explain shiel and either of hooper/kennedy should be gettable and in our age profile. My preference for patton over wright is that i would much rather a pure forward and one who is a huge upgrade on Levi. From what ive seen 2mtr peter is a natural ruckman who has played forward - good player but i would rather the pure big marking central target forward.

You three ... for the love of Christ on a popsicle stick change your avatar photos .......... I scroll through looking on the left hand side .... the same pic confuzzles me!



Merry Christmas!

 

[F_therest]

Not sure how much you watch mate, Peter Wright is key forward first and ruck second. He is a kid who is mobile, can get separation on the lead, kick them from beyond 50, and is no slouch on the ground, oh and a handy back up ruckman.
IMO only has his captain Lynch in front of him as a young KPF, yep rate him above Cameron, Patton, Hogan, Boyd (maybe has the upside).
Of course might struggle to top Harry McKay in a year or 2

That's probably the issue though...in that Wright would play the same position as McKay being a extremely tall 200cm+ forward who can pinch hit in the ruck...dont think you'd necessarily want 2 of them running around your forward line.

We'd also have to give up a lot in a trade to get him so i just think there are greater needs to spend those resources given we have McKay such as a gun midfielder or a true no.1 spearhead forward.

EDIT: Maybe we can revolutionise footy in a way by having 2 x 200cm forwards providing nightmares for opposition defences

 

[rp84]

You three ... for the love of Christ on a popsicle stick change your avatar photos .......... I scroll through looking on the left hand side .... the same pic confuzzles me!



Merry Christmas!

How?

 

[harrisendblue]

Not sure how much you watch mate, Peter Wright is key forward first and ruck second. He is a kid who is mobile, can get separation on the lead, kick them from beyond 50, and is no slouch on the ground, oh and a handy back up ruckman.
IMO only has his captain Lynch in front of him as a young KPF, yep rate him above Cameron, Patton, Hogan, Boyd (maybe has the upside).
Of course might struggle to top Harry McKay in a year or 2

well i do watch a lot of footy and have done so for many years, not that it makes me an expert by the why. Ive seen 2 metre Peter on several occasions, not all his games mind you, and my impression was natural ruckman who is being transitioned into the game via the forward line. Would luv to be proven wrong because it should take less to get him at this stage.

I hope the big H has strong shoulders because he carries both our expectations.

 

[harrisendblue]

You three ... for the love of Christ on a popsicle stick change your avatar photos .......... I scroll through looking on the left hand side .... the same pic confuzzles me!

Merry Christmas!

Metal we are all related.

Have a great festive season.

 

[LanceRomance]

lets not bring DT into it - thats another story.
But surely Vickery as a KPF free agent is going to demand more than a small forward who is not in the same league as betts/Rioli.
My concern would be how effective Breust would be outside the Hawks setup

Agreed.
Put Matthew Wright in Hawks forward line and he would get 45+ too.

 

[Blue__Balls]

lets not bring DT into it - thats another story.
But surely Vickery as a KPF free agent is going to demand more than a small forward who is not in the same league as betts/Rioli.
My concern would be how effective Breust would be outside the Hawks setup

Let's do. Genuine question - if Dale Thomas had given us two goals a game for the last three years, without missing a game, would his contract have been money well spent?

By all means, have concerns about Breust's ability to maintain his output in a developing side, i've got no issues with anyone having an opinion there. My view is that he's too good a player not to kick a couple of goals each week, he'd bring a wealth of experience in how an effective forward line functions and would act as an extension of the coaching group on gameday, and he'd fill a role we could genuinely use without holding back our developing kids (Silvagni and McKay play taller, Curnow is released into the middle).

If you think $700k is too steep, no worries - replace that number with whatever you feel comfortable with. My point is that we can dream big and hope for a Fyfe or Shiel, but Breust and Wright could feasibly be picked up next year without hurting our draft position, and both would be valuable additions to our suspect forward line.

 

[therubbernub]

Let's do. Genuine question - if Dale Thomas had given us two goals a game for the last three years, without missing a game, would his contract have been money well spent?

By all means, have concerns about Breust's ability to maintain his output in a developing side, i've got no issues with anyone having an opinion there. My view is that he's too good a player not to kick a couple of goals each week, he'd bring a wealth of experience in how an effective forward line functions and would act as an extension of the coaching group on gameday, and he'd fill a role we could genuinely use without holding back our developing kids (Silvagni and McKay play taller, Curnow is released into the middle).

If you think $700k is too steep, no worries - replace that number with whatever you feel comfortable with. My point is that we can dream big and hope for a Fyfe or Shiel, but Breust and Wright could feasibly be picked up next year without hurting our draft position, and both would be valuable additions to our suspect forward line.

I must admit I havent followed Breust as closely as you must have. DT we all are familiar with. At the time of trading DT, the thought was that he was more than a goal kicker- he brought a lot of others into the game at the pies- his effect on the team was expected to be broader. This justified to an extent, a higher contract.
Then there is his leadership factor. On this score I dont think he has failed us. But clearly with the benefit of hindsite injuries and age have caught up to him and he is no longer worth a premium AFL contract. I will reserve judgement as to whether he is worth say 300-350k - and that is probably all he will be offered- if anything at the end of 2017.
Breust I would put behind Eddie. That gives me a ballpark of around 500k for Breust- I still have reservations about his ability to perform outside of the Hawthorn machine. Betts was performing well for us- so he could only get better at a top 8 club. The opposite applies to breust

 

[RoyalParade]

There are 60 or so names on that list. Many will be crossed off over the next 10 months or so as they re-sign or fail to produce.

Of most interest to me are the 4 top tier talents available, and the dozen or so who sit on the tier below:

Tier 1
1. Fyfe (FA)
2. Martin (FA)
3. Shiel
4. Josh Kelly

Tier 2
1. Menzel (FA)
2. Breust (FA)
3. Grundy
4. Fantasia
5. Jack Martin
6. Touk Miller
7. Peter Wright
8. Hopper
9. Devon Smith
10. Patton
11. Darling

All of the above are of interest to me - some obvious, others perhaps less so.

With the money we will have at our disposal it wouldn't surprise should one of the above - possibly more - be wearing navy blue in 2018.

Thanks for that.

I think that if you are indeed right, and 1 or more are with us, it will be interesting to see how SOS trsdes for them. We very much need 1 more big draft year.

Obviously FA's dont need to be traded for, but i dont know if there are any of the right fit for us, and barass70 has already dismissed fyfe.

 

[TheCoach16]

There are 60 or so names on that list. Many will be crossed off over the next 10 months or so as they re-sign or fail to produce.

Of most interest to me are the 4 top tier talents available, and the dozen or so who sit on the tier below:

Tier 1
1. Fyfe (FA)
2. Martin (FA)
3. Shiel
4. Josh Kelly

Tier 2
1. Menzel (FA)
2. Breust (FA)
3. Grundy
4. Fantasia
5. Jack Martin
6. Touk Miller
7. Peter Wright
8. Hopper
9. Devon Smith
10. Patton
11. Darling

All of the above are of interest to me - some obvious, others perhaps less so.

With the money we will have at our disposal it wouldn't surprise should one of the above - possibly more - be wearing navy blue in 2018.

Hmmmm, I'll have...

Fyfe, Shiel, Wright, Patton.

 

[Red Bull]

well i do watch a lot of footy and have done so for many years, not that it makes me an expert by the why. Ive seen 2 metre Peter on several occasions, not all his games mind you, and my impression was natural ruckman who is being transitioned into the game via the forward line. Would luv to be proven wrong because it should take less to get him at this stage.

I hope the big H has strong shoulders because he carries both our expectations.

From what I've heard from 2mPeter he has made it pretty clear that he see's himself and wants to play as a KPF .
Yes he can chop out in the ruck but KPF is the right spot for Wright ...

 

[harrisendblue]

From what I've heard from 2mPeter he has made it pretty clear that he see's himself and wants to play as a KPF .
Yes he can chop out in the ruck but KPF is the right spot for Wright ...

well thats good to hear that he is at least motivated to play as a KPF.

 

[RudyBlue]

Agreed.
Put Matthew Wright in Hawks forward line and he would get 45+ too.

Wrighty Kicked Goals When No-One Else Could

 

[Blue__Balls]

Agreed.
Put Matthew Wright in Hawks forward line and he would get 45+ too.

This is a weird argument.

What's so good about the Hawks forward line? That'd be the players in it, yeah? It's like saying "Why bother recruiting Shiel, anyone would look good in GWS' midfield".

Breust is a quality player who finds space, demands the ball and has no problem slotting goals. He can push up the ground when required, applies pressure, and has thrown his hat in the ring for potential captaincy at Hawthorn, showing an obvious desire to take on more leadership responsibilities. He'd not only perform in our forward line, he'd also be a huge benefit to our developing players up there. Take Lamb out of the 22 from this year and replace him with Breust - sound good?

He's a more realistic target than Fyfe or Shiel, would only cost us salary, not picks, fills a need and improves our side dramatically.

 

[LanceRomance]

This is a weird argument.

What's so good about the Hawks forward line? That'd be the players in it, yeah? It's like saying "Why bother recruiting Shiel, anyone would look good in GWS' midfield".

Breust is a quality player who finds space, demands the ball and has no problem slotting goals. He can push up the ground when required, applies pressure, and has thrown his hat in the ring for potential captaincy at Hawthorn, showing an obvious desire to take on more leadership responsibilities. He'd not only perform in our forward line, he'd also be a huge benefit to our developing players up there. Take Lamb out of the 22 from this year and replace him with Breust - sound good?

He's a more realistic target than Fyfe or Shiel, would only cost us salary, not picks, fills a need and improves our side dramatically.

For starters... they have a forward line - they aren't dependent on one player to bring them goals.

Our forward line is patchwork at the moment - whereas they have poppy, gunston, breust, and riolo - plus they will get roughy back.

The only reason Breust can find space is because of the team mates who work in the hawks system.

 

[Blue__Balls]

For starters... they have a forward line - they aren't dependent on one player to bring them goals.

Our forward line is patchwork at the moment - whereas they have poppy, gunston, breust, and riolo - plus they will get roughy back.

The only reason Breust can find space is because of the team mates who work in the hawks system.

So would bringing him in help or hinder us in developing Silvagni, McKay, Sumner, LeBois etc. in becoming such a forward line?

 

[rp84]

There are 60 or so names on that list. Many will be crossed off over the next 10 months or so as they re-sign or fail to produce.

Of most interest to me are the 4 top tier talents available, and the dozen or so who sit on the tier below:

Tier 1
1. Fyfe (FA)
2. Martin (FA)
3. Shiel
4. Josh Kelly

Tier 2
1. Menzel (FA)
2. Breust (FA)
3. Grundy
4. Fantasia
5. Jack Martin
6. Touk Miller
7. Peter Wright
8. Hopper
9. Devon Smith
10. Patton
11. Darling

All of the above are of interest to me - some obvious, others perhaps less so.

With the money we will have at our disposal it wouldn't surprise should one of the above - possibly more - be wearing navy blue in 2018.

I wonder if we could entice Touk Miller back to Melbourne? Would be more than happy with a B+ mid with plenty of leadership joining the ranks, likely at a reasonable cost. Jack Martin would be another of great interest, but would cost too much.

Can see us making a play for both Fyfe (genuine) and Martin (pump up his price to screw the tigers over). Can't see us having the currency to get a trade for Shiel done (same for Wright). Both would cost 2 first rounders, which I just cant see us finding. Would take a look at what mids will go in the top 5, and see if we can pluck our own star. As much as I like Wright, I still think we need one or two more electric two-way running mids. If 3/4 of our talls come on (which seems likely looking at the crop), we already have too many to fit into one team.

 

[footyfan1978]

Hmmmm, I'll have...

Fyfe, Shiel, Wright, Patton.

Would that outdo getting Motley, Bradley, Kernahan, Dorotich and Bernie Evans in one off season ?
Can only dream.
Give me just one of Dylan Shiel, Hopper or Devon Smith and I will be happy at what can be done in just one off season in 2017.

 

[harrisendblue]

I wonder if we could entice Touk Miller back to Melbourne? Would be more than happy with a B+ mid with plenty of leadership joining the ranks, likely at a reasonable cost. Jack Martin would be another of great interest, but would cost too much.

Can see us making a play for both Fyfe (genuine) and Martin (pump up his price to screw the tigers over). Can't see us having the currency to get a trade for Shiel done (same for Wright). Both would cost 2 first rounders, which I just cant see us finding. Would take a look at what mids will go in the top 5, and see if we can pluck our own star. As much as I like Wright, I still think we need one or two more electric two-way running mids. If 3/4 of our talls come on (which seems likely looking at the crop), we already have too many to fit into one team.

Dont necessarily agree that it would take 2 first picks to snare an elite player if they are coming off contract and elect to join us.

According to barass we are off Fyffe.