Analysis 2017 List Management Discussion

[Stig O'Hara]

Thing I really like at the moment is you have to bash the door down to get a game in the ones, and once you get in, you have to perform.

These bottom 6 we go on about are genuinely making contributions.

Very healthy for a supposed struggling side.

 

[Malifice]

still think that your economics is way way out. first of all each player will get about 20% increase due to the increased cap.

Not yet they wont. Just because the cap increases, doesn't mean they earn more money (unless they are contracted for a percentage of the salary cap; which going by the number of player holding off on signing contracts this year, doesnt sound like is the case). They're all on the amounts they negotiated when they signed their current contracts.

Meaning a lot of clubs are going to have a lot of cash to splash around at the end of the year.

We'll be using ours to frontload and extend the contracts of SPS, Curnow, McKay and others.

salary for the average afl player is set to be $368,000 in 2018 and you are saying we should offer kreuzer $450k a year for 2 years and levi $350k a year for two years (yes less than the average players salary).

First year players salary is around 100k with match day payments pushing it up per game played. Marquee players (of which there would be around 6-8 at each club) would be on 400-700k. Some as high as a million for one player.

For us to get band one compensation for MK or LC they would need to attract offers in the vicinity of the top 5 percent of earners in the comp. In 2014 that would have meant a contract of around 600k per year. Its probably blown out to around 750k per year this year. 800k would definitely attract band 1 but even if MK pulls in a blinder I cant see him attracting an offer in that vicinity (even considering rucks come at a premium, and the big hole everyone will have in the salary cap thanks to the 20 percent increase).

Band 1 is a first round pick immediately after our own pick. So if we finish 3rd last, we get picks 3 and 4.

More likely is MK will attract band 2 compensation (End of first round or Pick 19) if he chooses to leave.

That would be an offer of around 500-600k, likely for 3 years (the extra year to convince him to accept, for peace of mind if he gets injured).

If he left and we only got Band 3 Id be wanting to know why we didnt table an offer just as good (maybe we did, but he just choose to leave anyway, which he can do as an unrestricted F/A)

both would leave and our rebuild would be set back by having to wait to see whether the kpf you draft to replace levi is any good and by having a one dimensional ruckman like soldo leading our ruck department.

If both players choose to leave for better offers elsewhere, then we wouldnt not be set back in our rebuild. We would get two draft picks in the top 20 to help with the rebuild (to go along with our own 1st rounder, and likely Adelaides as well).

The rebuild isnt even half way there (we are 29 games and 2 drafts into a 66 game + 4 draft rebuild); it doesnt officially 'finish' till the end of 2018. From there, we'll have a list of talented kids aged 24 and younger. Then comes at least one (and probably two) extra years of the blokes playing together and gelling before we push into the top 8 (around the 2020 season). You dont win flags with talented kids with zero experience. They need around 50+ games into them before they start to show what they can do.

2020 - thats when the window opens.

We're playing Weitering up forward as a precaution should Casboult leave. Kruzeer leaving forces us to play Phillips for a year or two while we draft in a young talented project ruck or two (which we need to do anyway seeing as Kruezer is 28 in 3 days and wont be of much use to us in 2020-2025 in any event). We could scrape by with Weitering playing CHF and McKay in theseiors next year, and Phillips rucking till we find someone better (before 2020).

As a positive we would have 4 picks in the top 20 if Levi and Kruezer keep up their current form and then walk out on us, and we trade Gibbs.

 

[Malifice]

Using one draft pick on a talented young key forward is a good investment. If McKay comes on, we draft a gun CHF, and then BSOS turns out to be the greatest forward to ever play the game, then we have currency to trade out and sustain our recruiting, just like GWS have done. If any one of those players is a bust, we still have two quality forwards to build around.

Correctamundo.

With three potential CHF developing in McKay, and (the dude we draft this year as KPF) and BSOS we have a much better strike rate to guarantee a 60 goal a season CHF. We could get lucky and find two of them in there and have our own Buddy and Roughy or Cameron and Patton show. We could strike the ****ing jackpot and they turn out to be AFL quality power forwards, giving us valuable trade currency the instant the window opens, allowing us to sustain our recruiting during a genuine premiership assault.

With three top 10 draftee KPF prospects developing away I would be bullish about one making it, and 50/50 on two of them making it. If two did make it, we release Weitering down to Full back where he plays his best (read AA and even Brownlow capable) footy. Our spine looks like this:

FB -Weitering
CHB- Marchbank
C - Cripps
CHF - 60 goal a season CHF
FF - 60 goal a season FF

Plus multiple gun Mids, half forwards and defenders (Plowman, Pickett, Docherty, Williamson, Byrne, Mcreadie, Curnow, Silvagni, SPS, Fisher, Cunningham Kruzer compo, Casboult Compo, Gibbs pick, 2018 1st round pick, 2019 1st round pick, 2019 second round pick etc),

Im going off to change my pants.

 

[BlueRenaissance]

I think we don't need a hard ingrained policy of anything anymore to do with trades/picks; that is a thing of the past based on our current developing list. Free agents and draft picks don't come made to order so for the first time in AGES, we could go a number of ways. That might be a KPP or it might be a mid. Over what Mal wants, it is more about what presents itself at the time will take precedence due to the shape of our list. Yes, we need what Mal says, but IMO, we dont have to stick to his order/rules.

If Hopper presents himself as an opportunity for the right price, we all want Carlton to jump over him...alternatively, if a KPP presented himself as a trade, we are all like, get it done sos. If we have pick 5 in the draft, best available given the current state of the list. Some of us hope that best available is a KPF, others hope it is a mid but most should think it is marginal.

 

[Malifice]

I think we don't need a hard ingrained policy of anything anymore to do with trades/picks; that is a thing of the past based on our current developing list. Free agents and draft picks don't come made to order so for the first time in AGES, we could go a number of ways. That might be a KPP or it might be a mid. Over what Mal wants, it is more about what presents itself at the time will take precedence due to the shape of our list. Yes, we need what Mal says, but IMO, we dont have to stick to his order/rules.

If Hopper presents himself as an opportunity for the right price, we all want Carlton to jump over him...alternatively, if a KPP presented himself as a trade, we are all like, get it done sos. If we have pick 5 in the draft, best available given the current state of the list.

I dont want us to reach for a KPF but if it comes to our pick and we cant split a mid or a KPF, I say go for the KPF.

If we're not going that way, we need to get into Lynch, Cameron and Pattons ear and promise them... whatever they want come next contract time.

 

[teknodeejay]

Lynch will cost a bundle and he will have pick of destination if he leaves.

I'd go for Patton personally.

 

[Blue__Balls]

I think we don't need a hard ingrained policy of anything anymore to do with trades/picks; that is a thing of the past based on our current developing list. Free agents and draft picks don't come made to order so for the first time in AGES, we could go a number of ways. That might be a KPP or it might be a mid. Over what Mal wants, it is more about what presents itself at the time will take precedence due to the shape of our list. Yes, we need what Mal says, but IMO, we dont have to stick to his order/rules.

If Hopper presents himself as an opportunity for the right price, we all want Carlton to jump over him...alternatively, if a KPP presented himself as a trade, we are all like, get it done sos. If we have pick 5 in the draft, best available given the current state of the list. Some of us hope that best available is a KPF, others hope it is a mid but most should think it is marginal.

This has dragged on so long people are losing sight of the key points.

We're not talking about reaching for a key forward, we're talking about taking one at our pick if the options are gun mid or gun key forward.

If there are three KPF's rated in the top 10, and they're all gone by our first pick, then we do the sensible thing and take the best midfielder available. If one is there, and there's no too-good-to-be-true midfield prodigy still on the board, then we go the KPF. Simple.

 

[Malifice]

Lynch will cost a bundle and he will have pick of destination if he leaves.

I'd go for Patton personally.

Id go for either, but Id pay whatever they wanted (draft pick wise) for Lynch.

Lynch and Mckay in our forward line is 100 goals a season. Chuck in Pickett, JSOS and Curnow with 3 years of preseasons in them and boom. Tht ball isnt going inside F50 without someone marking it. And then they dont, Pickett.

Plus it frees Wiets to stay down back.

Aroused.

 

[BigFrizz36]

Not yet they wont. Just because the cap increases, doesn't mean they earn more money (unless they are contracted for a percentage of the salary cap; which going by the number of player holding off on signing contracts this year, doesnt sound like is the case). They're all on the amounts they negotiated when they signed their current contracts.

Meaning a lot of clubs are going to have a lot of cash to splash around at the end of the year.

We'll be using ours to frontload and extend the contracts of SPS, Curnow, McKay and others.



First year players salary is around 100k with match day payments pushing it up per game played. Marquee players (of which there would be around 6-8 at each club) would be on 400-700k. Some as high as a million for one player.

For us to get band one compensation for MK or LC they would need to attract offers in the vicinity of the top 5 percent of earners in the comp. In 2014 that would have meant a contract of around 600k per year. Its probably blown out to around 750k per year this year. 800k would definitely attract band 1 but even if MK pulls in a blinder I cant see him attracting an offer in that vicinity (even considering rucks come at a premium, and the big hole everyone will have in the salary cap thanks to the 20 percent increase).

Band 1 is a first round pick immediately after our own pick. So if we finish 3rd last, we get picks 3 and 4.

More likely is MK will attract band 2 compensation (End of first round or Pick 19) if he chooses to leave.

That would be an offer of around 500-600k, likely for 3 years (the extra year to convince him to accept, for peace of mind if he gets injured).

If he left and we only got Band 3 Id be wanting to know why we didnt table an offer just as good (maybe we did, but he just choose to leave anyway, which he can do as an unrestricted F/A)



If both players choose to leave for better offers elsewhere, then we wouldnt not be set back in our rebuild. We would get two draft picks in the top 20 to help with the rebuild (to go along with our own 1st rounder, and likely Adelaides as well).

The rebuild isnt even half way there (we are 29 games and 2 drafts into a 66 game + 4 draft rebuild); it doesnt officially 'finish' till the end of 2018. From there, we'll have a list of talented kids aged 24 and younger. Then comes at least one (and probably two) extra years of the blokes playing together and gelling before we push into the top 8 (around the 2020 season). You dont win flags with talented kids with zero experience. They need around 50+ games into them before they start to show what they can do.

2020 - thats when the window opens.

We're playing Weitering up forward as a precaution should Casboult leave. Kruzeer leaving forces us to play Phillips for a year or two while we draft in a young talented project ruck or two (which we need to do anyway seeing as Kruezer is 28 in 3 days and wont be of much use to us in 2020-2025 in any event). We could scrape by with Weitering playing CHF and McKay in theseiors next year, and Phillips rucking till we find someone better (before 2020).

As a positive we would have 4 picks in the top 20 if Levi and Kruezer keep up their current form and then walk out on us, and we trade Gibbs.

incorrect. a regular starting 22 player would be looking for at least $400k next year. an in demand key position/ruck (levi) would be looking for $500k per season and a top 5 multi dimensioned ruckman at least $650k.
to give you some context ty vickery (who levi is going significantly better than) signed at hawthorn on 3 years for approx $450k per year. chris mayne signed at collingwood for 4 years for approx $500k per year. are you seriously trying to tell us that we should offer kreuze less than collingwood offered mayne??
you say how few kpf become available on the market. how many game changing ruckmen come onto the market we have one who loves the club and that the playing list love. 9 votes in the coaches award against grundy who some rate as the best ruck in the comp. make him an offer he is happy with for three years (which would still be way less than he could receive elsewhere) sign up a project ruckman to do an apprenticeship under him and revisit in two years. job done.

 

[BlueRenaissance]

This has dragged on so long people are losing sight of the key points.

We're not talking about reaching for a key forward, we're talking about taking one at our pick if the options are gun mid or gun key forward.

If there are three KPF's rated in the top 10, and they're all gone by our first pick, then we do the sensible thing and take the best midfielder available. If one is there, and there's no too-good-to-be-true midfield prodigy still on the board, then we go the KPF. Simple.

My key point is we don't need your pre-condition of a preference for a KPF if all things held even (2 simialr players). So haven't lot sight of the discussion at all. My key point is simply keep an open mind to all options. Yours is keep an open mind to all options with a preference to a KPF. I think that is wrong this year (and only IMO).

 

[katmanblue]

the whole ben silvagni thing may amount to nothing and is a long way off but what list manager would bid a high draft pick on ben in the knowledge that there was a chance that carlton dont match. surely after 2 years he heads back to carlton and said list manager is out of a job on the basis of pig headedness. wont be sos decision regarding ben but the gibbs non trade has indicated to all and sundry that we wont be pushed around.

And sexton.

On SM-N920I using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Funk]

Take Fev up on his offer to get back into shape and draft as a rookie, Hudson style.
Hudson came back and kicked 100+...I think?
(tongue in cheek)

We'd need to trade in the hovercraft for a helicopter...........

 

[Funk]

Weitering is not a KPF. Hes a Key Defender, who we drafted as a Key defender, after spending the TAC cup as a Key Defender, and spent his first year playing full back as a Key Defender. He has been shifted up forward for the last seven games to provide us with an extra option up forward, because after Levi Casboult we dont have any other AFL ready Key Forwards at present. We're assisting in his development in a nothing year where we expect to finish down the bottom of the ladder.

He looked much better last year as a Key Defender than he has this year as a stand in forward.

And re McKay he is a [maybe] for me as a Key Forward. We drafted him as a key forward but we wont know if he's any good (60+ goals) for another few years yet.

Like I said - our future spine is:

[FB]: Weitering
[CHB]: Marchbank
[C]: Cripps
[CHF]: ??????
[FF]" McKay

Weitering, Mbank and Cripps are proven talents at AFL level in those positions. McKay is not.

Weitering grew up playing CHF

 

[Malifice]

incorrect. a regular starting 22 player would be looking for at least $400k next year.

According to the players' collective bargaining agreement, which is entering its final year, first-round draftees receive a base of $74,740 in their first season and $3660 a match.

Players taken in the second round of the draft are employed on a base of $67,935, and all other players from the third round down to pre-season selections are on a $64,395 base.

http://www.afl.com.au/news/2015-11-24/how-much-does-an-afl-draft-pick-earn

There are 40 players on our senior list, 4 rookies and 2 Cat B rookies. If we're paying 'at least' 400k for each player in the best 22 thats 'at least' 9 million dollars. Its leaving 3 million dollars for the 24 other listed players (taking into account the CBA thats pushing the 12 million dollar mark if those 24 are all on 1st year recruit wages of 100k per year.

My only point was that just because the Salary cap increases, player contracts will remain the same.

If you singed a 3 year deal last year for 450k per annum, then you earn 450k per annum. Just because the cap has increased, doesnt mean the club will suddenly start paying its players more than what they are contracted for.

Those figures you are citing are too high:

"In 2014, the AFL annual report showed that six per cent of AFL players (which includes those under 25 and therefore not part of the sample relevant to compensation) earned more than $600,000. However, the figure needed to earn a first-round pick would be different this year."

http://www.afl.com.au/news/2015-10-...-to-earn-firstround-free-agency-compensation-

Three years ago in 2014, the top 5 percent of players were earning just over 600k per annum. It wont have increased that much to now.

I dont think you get that the extra 20 percent from the CBA wont be used up straight away. Some will be used up to sign those players who have been holding out for the CBA to be resolved. Some will be used over the next 12 months as old contracts expire. Some will be used at the end of the year for F/A.

Clubs will also seek to re-negotiate existing contracts with players adding an extra year in exchange for a frontloaded sum in 2017) (we will probably be doing a fair bit of this).

to give you some context ty vickery (who levi is going significantly better than) signed at hawthorn on 3 years for approx $450k per year. chris mayne signed at collingwood for 4 years for approx $500k per year. are you seriously trying to tell us that we should offer kreuze less than collingwood offered mayne??

Source for those figures?

you say how few kpf become available on the market. how many game changing ruckmen come onto the market we have one who loves the club and that the playing list love. 9 votes in the coaches award against grundy who some rate as the best ruck in the comp. make him an offer he is happy with for three years (which would still be way less than he could receive elsewhere) sign up a project ruckman to do an apprenticeship under him and revisit in two years. job done.

Dude, you are not listening to me. Its out of our hands. He is an unrestricted free agent (meaning it doesnt matter if we match the offer). Matching it only gives him incentive to stay (presuming he wants to).

And to be honest, if an offer came in for 650+ for 3 years (2 million over 3 years) I wouldnt want us to. Id rather take the band 2 (maybe band 1) compensation, grab an 18 year old in the top 20 of the draft, play Phillips for a few years while we find a quality young ruck elsewhere.

We need to replace him over the next 3-4 years anyway. Might as well get something in exchange for him now courtesy of the AFL.

 

[mikeythemoocow]

Weitering will be one of the best CHF ever, if he is left to learn and play as a CHF. Down back we have Marchbank and the Plow who are forming a pretty nice partnership. If Macreadie goes on with what he has shown in his first few games, we are getting pretty stacked down back.

Also, for everyone who is talking Weitering up as a gun down back and not the same impact up forward, thats not surprising. There are players who become great KPD who show much more than KPF at the same age. CHF is the hardest position in football. Weitering in his second season has shown heaps more than Lynch and Daniher did at the same age as a CHF. If we leave Weitering to develop as a CHF he's going to be one of the best CHF's in our history.

 

[Stig O'Hara]

Weitering is having a tough second year.

It happens.

 

[F_therest]

Weitering is having a tough second year.

It happens.

Mostly due to the knocks and injuries he's been copping though, rather than just a lack of form.

Was very good in first half against Swans playing as the lead up half forward...then copped the leg injury.

 

[BrisbaneCFC]

Weitering is having a tough second year.

It happens.

Yep, mentioned it before several times. It would appear that he has a dose of the ' second year syndrome '. Happens to many second year players in many sports.

 

[LanceRomance]

Yep, mentioned it before several times. It would appear that he has a dose of the ' second year syndrome '. Happens to many second year players in many sports.

2nd year blues....

 

[Salt Lake Cities]

2nd year blues....

Got me by a minute....

It definitely happens in pretty much all sports. No biggie, kid's a star.

 

[Azul]

Charlie could easily be used a a KPF, if the club wanted to go that way.

7 goals from 12 matches. I'm calling it prematurely - Charlie ain't a forward.

He's no Brendon Fevola, Lance Whitnall, Josh Kennedy, Brad Pearce, Steve Kernahan, Jarrad Waite or Earl Spalding.

Of all our goalkickers of the past 20 years, he doesn't fit the template.

 

[LanceRomance]

Im going off to change my pants.

You wear pants?

 

[My name geoff]

Thing I really like at the moment is you have to bash the door down to get a game in the ones, and once you get in, you have to perform.

These bottom 6 we go on about are genuinely making contributions.

Very healthy for a supposed struggling side.

Genuinely building some list depth, we had 16 players with AFL experience in the 2s on the weekend.

Compare that with the AFL's top side Adelaide who only had 3 blokes in their SANFL side who have played a game of AFL and one of them was 34 y.o. Scott Thompson and another was a Carlton reject Troy Menzel. Their list is relatively healthy injury wise also.

 

[SkyhorseTamer]

7 goals from 12 matches. I'm calling it prematurely - Charlie ain't a forward.

He's no Brendon Fevola, Lance Whitnall, Josh Kennedy, Brad Pearce, Steve Kernahan, Jarrad Waite or Earl Spalding.

Of all our goalkickers of the past 20 years, he doesn't fit the template.

In his first 13 games Kennedy had kicked 7 goals. Hardly a way to say someone isn't a forward

 

[ParapMarkets]

Weitering will be one of the best CHF ever, if he is left to learn and play as a CHF. Down back we have Marchbank and the Plow who are forming a pretty nice partnership. If Macreadie goes on with what he has shown in his first few games, we are getting pretty stacked down back.

Also, for everyone who is talking Weitering up as a gun down back and not the same impact up forward, thats not surprising. There are players who become great KPD who show much more than KPF at the same age. CHF is the hardest position in football. Weitering in his second season has shown heaps more than Lynch and Daniher did at the same age as a CHF. If we leave Weitering to develop as a CHF he's going to be one of the best CHF's in our history.

I find it weird when people acknowledge that KF's take a long time to develop and then make judgments on Weiters that he will be not much more than a serviceable CHF after not even 7 full games in that position. He's shown a lot, especially compared to other KF's at the same stage.