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Discussion in 'Fremantle' started by wayToGo_, Feb 18, 2017.
Predictions or Crumpet like Fantasy??
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Wow, acute prediction!
Pessimists, they're often right but never happy.
I think Hamling and Alex Pearce are going to be a great combination but unfortunately we might not see much of Alex this year. I reckon they are going to be very conservative with him now he's broken a bone twice. He needs time and a slow build.
As for the Crowley type I think that may well be Sheridan who showed an aptitude for it last year.
1st off... I am very surprised that most people on Here think Freo will make the 8. Last season was a description of Murphy's law: What possibly could go wrong did go wrong Freo are way better than the 4 win season they posted in 2016. Last year was a domino effect in a negative way. After that round 5 loss to carlton last year, our confidence and morale was shot down. We should of got 8-9 wins considering how many close losses we had at home. Personally, I don't see Freo getting top 4, I don't see them getting bottom 4 either. I am not too confident of the season ahead after all those injuries we got last season too.
Freo can finish as High as 5th with 14 wins to as low as 14th with 6-8 wins. Only way I see freo getting bottom 4 again in 2017 is that freo get 15th with 6-8 wins. I have also looked at the home games freo have got this year.... Eagles twice, Geelong, Bulldogs, North, Essendon, Carlton, Collingwood, Saints, Hawks, Suns and Richmond. I expect Freo to win half of those. Only away game I see winning easily is Brisbane, Some other games like Essendon, North and Richmond we will be going in as outside chances. Along with Essendon who have 10 players returning from their bans, Freo have the biggest scope as well with recruiting many players last season that should improve the squad and be in our 22.
Of the draftees coming in, I expect all 3 of Logue, Cox and Darcy to get debuts. All 3 will play 20 games each, 2-5 in the AFL, 15-18 in the WAFL.
Of the experienced recruits, Hamling will play at least 20 games. Hill will do well in the midfield and on a flank. McCarthy and Kersten will both play 20 games each and get 25-30 goals. Then there is Bennell... We know how good he is, hoping he gets on the park. I think he will play 18 games and kick 18 goals and be a difference maker some of the games he plays too.
Our defence should be better than last season. Midfield has a variety of match winners. But that forward line will be the one to watch. Quantity isn't the problem, its the quality. We got McCarthy, Kersten, Apeness, Strnadica, Cox and Logue all capable of playing as a key forward. we need 2 of them to kick a combine total of 60-70 goals this season.
Freo have got and interesting 1st 5 games that can indicate where freo will finish starting with Geelong in round 1. Start the season well, we can make finals. Struggle in the 1st few games and it will be a long year. I expect Freo to cop some injuries but not in the magnitude of 2011 and 2016.
Prediction... I reckon freo will get 7-10 wins. This has 2002 or 2011 written all over it. Its a developing year in which it builds up for finals next season
My bottom 3 are Brisbane, North and either carlton or Collingwood
6 positives in the good and even a positive in the bad section. And also threw the Ballaz stuff out there for Haggers to get excited about.
Glad you clarified because I thought it was just to trigger me. Because it did
We will finish around the 6-8 mark and finish above West Coast.
We will lose a few early but come home with a wet sail as the team gels and adapts to each other.
Fyfe will win the brownlow and he will re-sign with us.
Tabs will kick over 30 goals.
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I have a few bottles of kraken up for grabs at the end of the season
With a wet toast mate of mine
Freo to finish higher than wc in season proper
Freo to make the eight
Wc to not finish top 4
Bottle of kraken rum on each-how do you think I'll go????
Didn't see this post before mine,but I hope your a good judge Freo 84
Looks like a very reasonable bet IMO.
Two bets currently with a carton on the line for each.
- That Fyfe re-signs with us (Looking good) - With an Weagles supporter
- That we finish higher than St Kilda - With a Saints supporter
Happiness looks good on you.
I don't like to toot my own horn but my track record is pretty ummm average.
I hit more than Haggers though haha
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Would have been easier just to say it was your bottom 4.
I expect it to be a season like 02, but im hoping it can be like 2012. Start slow, get back to the defensive mindset and then really do some damage in back half of the season.
Part Two - due to unpopular demand...
THE YOUNG GUNS (high potential prospects on the senior list)
Tucker - I made a prediction when we drafted him that he'd be our best draftee since Fyfe and from what we saw in his debut year and his form this pre-season it is seeming a safer bet every day. Anyone that watched him play in the WAFL final series knows how classy this kid is. If you're excited about Brad Hill delivering inside 50, I'm predicting it won't take long before you'll get equally excited about Tucker's entries as well. He seems to have already built his body to be able to play inside or out, and I'd be expecting news of a decent contract extension sometime early this season. Despite plenty of competition from other young guns on our list to have a break out season, I have Tucker at the top of my pile.
Weller - a lot of people seem to think Weller is best placed as a half forward because he can kick goals. The question I have is what is wrong with a half back that can kick goals? I've always seen Weller as a burst player with great x-factor. I think he's always looked more comfortable running towards goal rather than leading out from the goals. There is no reason he can't pinch hit up forward or in the midfield but I think Weller's class at half back best exploits all his strengths and best covers for his weaknesses. In many ways I think he brings what we wanted from Sheridan down back but can do it with far more class. After a pre-season training as a half back I can't wait to see him exploding out of defence for us this season.
Blakely - arguably had a break out year last season but I think we'll see considerable benefits for the team from his extra work defensively. He has the all important ability to win the ball, and just needs to keep adding the other components to become a top level AFL midfielder. I'm not yet convinced he can become a super star but his progress to date has been pretty impressive (and most importantly, far beyond that Lamb spud).
Langdon - I thought he was robbed of BOG honours in the Peel grand final win. He was simply sensational and from his form late last season he secured a place in my B22 even with the subsequent recruitment of Brad Hill. He has and will continue to occasionally make mistakes but give this kid a licence to run the ball and take a shot from outside 50 and I'd back him in to become a potential game winner. I'd be a little surprised if Langdon qualifies to play Peel finals this year.
Balic - despite some disappointing pre-season reports from training watchers (including myself), I still believe HB2 could become the next best balanced mid of all our young guns behind Tucker. I think he has just as much natural ball winning talent as Blakely but with better disposal and the flexibility and poise to play at half forward or half back as well. Assuming his head is in the right space I can see him dominating early for Peel and earning a debut. He is incredibly talented and could fill that flexible half forward role we have struggled with for years. Crossing fingers he approaches this season with the right attitude and we get to witness his potential at AFL level.
Hughes - this guy is far better than the majority assume which is why I've grouped him with these guys. I've watched him play a fair bit and he's clearly a confidence player and sometimes lets himself down with doubting himself. He looks simply amazing this pre-season and I'm hopeful we'll see him lighting it up at Peel early on (perhaps in the midfield as well) and finding himself up for selection again. As a kid who only started playing at 15 I see him as a long term investment and predicting he will arrive this season.
APearce - unfortunately won't be back until mid season at the earliest by the looks but he's a long term prospect and hoping before the end of season he can remind us again of why we were all so excited about this young giant with plenty of skills. I think most avid supporters are excited by the prospect of Griffin, Joel and Alex becoming the key pillars of our defence for the next decade. As a group they have so much flexibility and such complimentary skills sets.
Logue - despite being our first early draft pick in years I have lowered my expectations for his first season. Although I still expect him to debut fairly early on. There is just so much to work with, I think he'll develop quickly in that 3rd tall defender role to begin with and then eventually become a true swingman that can play almost anywhere.
Ryan - as much as the media over East may be off the mark thinking he'll be lining up round 1, we have the opposite situation in WA where many supporters haven't seen him play yet and therefore aren't aware of how talented this mature age recruit is. He may not be starring in pre-season but I'm expecting he'll absolutely dominate attack from half back for Peel and be winning himself a debut. If he averages the same stats for Peel as he got for Coburg last year he'd be our most attacking half back option fairly comfortably. Crossing fingers that confidence can translate to AFL because if it does we have grabbed a bargain to fill a massive hole.
Apeness - it's a shame he didn't get more of a run at it last season to prove his worth more but I think anyone who watched this guy closely would absolutely love his attitude on field. We all know KPFs almost always take a long time to develop and in his case injuries have really crueled his progress early on. A big beast of a lad that can crash packs, crunch someone in a tackle, pull down a contested mark and pinch hit in the ruck is something we've been missing on our list for a long time. He could make a huge difference to the effectiveness of our B22, especially our small forwards. Walters, Ballas and Bennell would become even more dangerous if Apeness can become that key hulking precence up forward.
I think logue will be develop as everyway player rather than swing men .
Gut feeling is we will be 0-4 and get our 1st win in 2017 vs north in round 5. Don't win an away game until we beat Brisbane. I expect freo to beat the likes of Collingwood, Carlton and North easily at home provided we have a fully fit squad.
Good bets - the first is a shoo-in (I assume you got odds). The second is sound. Both St Kilda and Melbourne will find the next step (finals expectations) hard. It does assume we play finals though!
I think we will finish in the range of 8th to 12th. It could take quite a while for the team to gel with a big influx of players over the off season. It's a worry to lose a scratch match by such a big margin and lets hope it was a one off bad game or it could be another long season.
I've noticed a few long term doom and gloom outlooks in other threads and although I agree that this year we probably won't make finals I still think when you analyse our list it is heading in a very positive direction. I see no reason it couldn't have us challenging for a premiership in the upcoming years. I feel this way mainly because of the relative inexperience of a number of our youngsters, many of whom will likely double their games experience this year:
Weller - 25 games
Hamling - 24 games
McCarthy - 21 games
APearce - 21 games
Blakely - 16 games
Langdon - 15 games
Tucker - 12 games
Collins - 12 games
Apeness - 7 games
Hughes - 6 games
That's 10 players that should mostly start getting in to that experience sweet spot over the next couple of years. Then we also have Balic, Logue, Ryan, Cox and Darcy whom I'm predicting should break in to our B22 at some point this year or next. And all these youngsters will be playing alongside some top quality players in Fyfe, Neale, Bennell, SHill, BHill and Walters, that will still all be in their prime come 2018-2022. So that's about 16-20 players who should hopefully all have at least 50 games of experience by 2019 - which is a far different profile to the one we currently have!
But the remaining spots are where I have my main question marks though...
Sutcliffe - 87 games
Sheridan - 59 games
Crozier - 50 games
Taberner - 45 games
Kersten - 37 games
I'm certain we are yet to see their best but how long can we wait at the expense of developing our other youngsters? I'm predicting a couple of these guys will finally step up this season but I strongly doubt all of them will be B22 come seasons end.
And yes, we'll be losing some quality over the coming years with guys like Sandi, Johnson and Mundy retiring at some stage. They're somewhat impossible to replace but we'll adapt without them. And with the others that are nearing the end of their AFL careers (Griffin, Dawson, DPearce, Ballas, Spurr, Ibbo, Clarke and Suban) I think we are pretty well placed to fill the gaps they leave generally.
A couple more solid off-seasons at the trade table and in the draft should see us with a very balanced list in the right age and experience demographic. I just hope the coaches, players and supporters are aware of where we are at currently and show some patience knowing that in the long run we'll be well situated.
Have us winning 8 games.
26yrs and under that I'm fully confident in:
××××× - A Pearce - Hamling
Weller - ××××× - Tucker
B Hill - Neale - S Hill
Walters - McCarthy - Bennell
××××× - ××××× - ×××××
××××× - Fyfe - Blakely
That's over half the squad.
The next likely players:
Apeness, Langdon, Crozier, Sheridan, Tabs, Kersten, Sutty, Collins.
If three of these players come good we have 3 qtrs of our team already in the squad.
Then the hopefuls:
Logue, Cox, Darcy, Balic, Ryan, Clarke?
More than anymore we need Apeness, Tabs and Darcy to come on to strengthen our spine. Then perhaps Crozier and Ryan to join Weller in strengthening our hbf.
Next draft we need a small fwd and a few inside mids to start developing.
We're not in a bad spot moving forward.