Draft Review 2017 - Revisit the 2017 AFL draft

[Suitcase]

If he had better football iq he would get in better positions to get more of the ball to cover over his lack of fitness

There are plenty of talented players that lack fitness and can find the ball more than 9 times a match


6 disposals, 2 tackles & 2 goals
5 disposals, 2 tackles & 1 goal
8 disposals, 2 marks & 1 goal
15 disposals, 5 marks & 1 goal

I know stats don't tell a full story but fu** me if he was one of your best either (a) your performances were more sh*t than I realized or (b) he must be the most impactful player of all time

What sort of numbers do you expect from a young fella playing out of position in the forward pocket?

It's always been a case of waiting for his tank to develop before putting him in the midfield. This year was the year it was going to happen.

Had he not done his acl in preseason we'd likely not be having this conversation right now.

 

[00Stinger]

So you are saying you have only watched half of his games and feel that you are in a position to rate his overall performance? Please. And to say that we wouldn't be happy drafting him at 20 is laughable.

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Brayshaw
Davie-Uniake
Cerra
Stephenson
Clark
Naughton
Bailey
Richards
Higgins
Starcevich
Allen
Kelly
Balta
Ryan
Fritsch
McCartin
Ballard
Baker.
Petrucelle
Daniels

All are clearly ahead of him on exposed form. I mean I could probably throw in another 5-6 names as well but they would be more debatable

 

[00Stinger]

What sort of numbers do you expect from a young fella playing out of position in the forward pocket?

It's always been a case of waiting for his tank to develop before putting him in the midfield. This year was the year it was going to happen.

Had he not done his acl in preseason we'd likely not be having this conversation right now.

You said he was one of your better finals performers though, so was he? or wasn't he?

I would expect a number 1 draft pick to be be getting at least double digit possessions a game by the end of his third year especially one playing in a fairly good team where it is easier to get more of the ball

Ah yes the old he was about top break out before he got injured argument. Now you are going to deal in hypotheticals

There are plenty of young players without AFGL midfielder level tanks that can at least find the ball

 

[Suitcase]

You said he was one of your better finals performers though, so was he? or wasn't he?

I would expect a number 1 draft pick to be be getting at least double digit possessions a game by the end of his third year especially one playing in a fairly good team where it is easier to get more of the ball

Ah yes the old he was about top break out before he got injured argument. Now you are going to deal in hypotheticals

There are plenty of young players without AFGL midfielder level tanks that can at least find the ball

I never mentioned anything about finals.

It was well known Rayner was about to become full time mid this year. The coaches mentioned it and he trained as a midfielder all preseason and slimmed down a ton. Dominated the intra clubs playing midfield and was well poised to have at least somewhat of a breakout year with his change of position. Not really a hypothetical.

 

[La Dispute]

What sort of numbers do you expect from a young fella playing out of position in the forward pocket?

It's always been a case of waiting for his tank to develop before putting him in the midfield. This year was the year it was going to happen.

Had he not done his acl in preseason we'd likely not be having this conversation right now.

Out of position?

Just looking at a couple of Phantom Drafts and knowing he kicked a couple of bags for Vic Metro this is a bit of a stretch.

Twomey

Rayner is the standout player in the pool and one who can change games in a matter of minutes, which has been why he has been touted as the likely No.1 pick for most of the year. As a forward he can take marks and kick goals quickly, and in his stints in the midfield he has shown he can be a damaging force there as well. The 18-year-old is a popular, bubbly personality who is well liked within his group, and will be able to settle into AFL life well. Yes, his slow 2km run last week was underwhelming, but it was not a huge surprise given his layoff with injury and time out of footy. Should the Lions go with him at No.1 they will get a crowd-pleaser and one of the most exciting talents to come through in recent years.

Beveridge

Bio: Rayner has the perfect mix of some of the AFL’s most dangerous forward-of-centre players. Dustin Martin is the obvious comparison, but there are also elements of Christian Petracca and Robbie Gray. He’s best used as the deepest forward, where he’s explosive and can kick goals in a variety of ways. He’s shown he can convert from ground level, on the lead, in the air and from stoppages this season, with his burst his most dangerous asset. He kicked 12 goals from four games with Vic Metro.

Balmer

Powerful and explosive midfielder who makes you excited when you watch him. A similar mould to Robbie Gray combined with Christian Petracca and when up forward his contested marking overhead is one of his strengths. For the moment he is a forward first, midfielder second with his endurance being a work in progress – running an 11.10 beep test at TAC Cup preseason testing. Not afraid to throw out a ‘don’t argue’ to his opponents. Can do things that others in the 2017 draft pool cannot. Battled a knee injury in the second half of the season.

Knightmare

Forward who is aggressive, powerful, explosive and unstoppable one-on-one. With time, as endurance builds, is expected to transition more into a midfielder.

Looks like the story is pretty uniform. Gun junior forward who was expected to transition into a midfielder. The alarming thing from a Brisbane POV is that as a forward he's only going at a goal a game 3 years in. If he was dividing his time in the midfield, which was Petracca, JDG et al had to do you think 'fair enough' but his extremely low possession counts point to him playing as a permanent forward.

Either way you look at it - pretty concerning.

 

[Suitcase]

Brayshaw
Davie-Uniake
Cerra
Stephenson
Clark
Naughton
Bailey
Richards
Higgins
Starcevich
Allen
Kelly
Balta
Ryan
Fritsch
McCartin
Ballard
Baker.
Petrucelle
Daniels

All are clearly ahead of him on exposed form. I mean I could probably throw in another 5-6 names as well but they would be more debatable

Lucky your opinion is irrelevant, because if the draft was redone today Rayner is still getting picked ahead of most of those players. Internally he's extremely highly regarded and there is no doubts on his ability. We drafted him knowing he would be a slow burn.

Just because he isn't racking up 20 touches a game and is getting criticism from BF armchair experts about his footballing ability (who actually have NFI) is irrelevant.

 

[00Stinger]

Lucky your opinion is irrelevant, because if the draft was redone today Rayner is still getting picked ahead of most of those players. Internally he's extremely highly regarded and there is no doubts on his ability. We drafted him knowing he would be a slow burn.

Just because he isn't racking up 20 touches a game and is getting criticism from BF armchair experts about his footballing ability (who actually have NFI) is irrelevant.

You mean not even racking up 10 touches

It's OK I know you want to pretend like your prized number 1 pick is going much better than he is.

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[RedmanWasHere]

Brayshaw
Davie-Uniake
Cerra
Stephenson
Clark
Naughton
Bailey
Richards
Higgins
Starcevich
Allen
Kelly
Balta
Ryan
Fritsch
McCartin
Ballard
Baker.
Petrucelle
Daniels

All are clearly ahead of him on exposed form. I mean I could probably throw in another 5-6 names as well but they would be more debatable

I stopped taking this seriously at Petruccelle.

 

[Daniels Riches]

Brayshaw
Davie-Uniake
Cerra
Stephenson
Clark
Naughton
Bailey
Richards
Higgins
Starcevich
Allen
Kelly
Balta
Ryan
Fritsch
McCartin
Ballard
Baker.
Petrucelle
Daniels

All are clearly ahead of him on exposed form. I mean I could probably throw in another 5-6 names as well but they would be more debatable

When you throw out names like Petrucelle and Richards, it is really hard to take you seriously. If you think players like that are 'clearly ahead' of Rayner, you mustn't watch much football. Laughable. Geez, would be entertaining so see the rest of your list

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[La Dispute]

I stopped taking this seriously at Petruccelle.

Richards for me, but you get the point.

I don’t think Rayner is currently in the best 15 players of his draft class.

 

[adammania9]

I reckon some are being way too harsh on Rayner.

People aren't harsh enough to be frank. He's been terrible

 

[adammania9]

What do you mean by established himself? As in established himself in our best 22 or established himself as a star of the comp?

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Either or. Is he even in your top 18 players? 63/63 games played at the time of injury, producing sub-10 touch games twice in every three games, and kicking under a goal a game. I'm staggered any Brisbane fan can be satisfied with his production so far

His minutes on ground don't support the lack of tank argument. In 2019 and '20 he was playing 80%+ of most games. If he doesn't have the tank to get himself to the next contest and get more football then that is a serious flaw in his ability and something that doesn't necessarily improve naturally

 

[00Stinger]

I stopped taking this seriously at Petruccelle.

So only 18 ahead of him?

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[00Stinger]

People aren't harsh enough to be frank. He's been terrible

100%

Doesn't get the ball, doesn't offer much pressure and really doesn't kick goals

Kidding themselves of being happy with him as a number 1 pick

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[mattsmob]

Everyone expects him to be the next Dustin Martin or Christian Petracca , but these guys were copping double the number of touches at the same point in their careers and also kicking a goal a goal despite spending more time in the midfield than Rayner is. He's tracking closer to someone like Cam Zuhaar, who was a rookie pick.

I suspect if the Lions hadn't drafted two future All-Australians in Bailey and Starcevich in the same draft they'd be getting more heat for taking Rayner at Pick 1.

If Rayner becomes the next Dusty or Petracca I'd be surprised however it's not out of the realm of possibility like it is for 95% of the competition, also as for the disposal difference there is quite a large gap in the quality of the team they're in to start their careers.
Was there a clear number pick other than Rayner at the time? We shouldn't be taking any heat for a pick that most other clubs would've also made.

 

[La Dispute]

With a big off-season and a renewed focus on developing his midfield game I can easily see Rayner averaging 12-13 touches in Season 5.

 

[mattsmob]

You said he was one of your better finals performers though, so was he? or wasn't he?

I would expect a number 1 draft pick to be be getting at least double digit possessions a game by the end of his third year especially one playing in a fairly good team where it is easier to get more of the ball

Ah yes the old he was about top break out before he got injured argument. Now you are going to deal in hypotheticals

There are plenty of young players without AFGL midfielder level tanks that can at least find the ball

I was the one that said he was one of our better finals performers and I stand by that, whether you like it or not when he gets the ball he does things most players in the comp simply can't. I've never denied that he doesn't find enough ball, he took a huge leap in his ability to get around the ground and find the ball more consistently throughout games in the pre-season just gone before his injury. He hasn't had the impact of some other number 1 picks to this point in his career but to talk about him like he's a complete bust is just ridiculous. Like I've said, he's still young and time will tell where he ends up, I'm still happy to have him at the club.

 

[WilloTree]

Not sure about the order, but top 5 for mine:

Brayshaw
Naughton
Kelly
Allen
Worpel

 

[RedmanWasHere]

So only 18 ahead of him?

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Daniels is easily above Petch.
Taylor likewise.

Coffield and Powell another 2 who should be ahead of Petch.

 

[00Stinger]

Daniels is easily above Petch.
Taylor likewise.

Coffield and Powell another 2 who should be ahead of Petch.

I just named them randomly

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[Slysh]

What sort of numbers do you expect from a young fella playing out of position in the forward pocket?

It's always been a case of waiting for his tank to develop before putting him in the midfield. This year was the year it was going to happen.

Had he not done his acl in preseason we'd likely not be having this conversation right now.

I like Rayner, seems a good kid and clearly has talent. Lions fans are being very kind in the assessment to him though.

'young fella' 63 games in is a prett large sample size. 'out of position' He has played a lot of forward in his junior days and his entire AFL career to this point? How can his main position not be a small forward when he is not fit enough to run out a quarter in the midfield?

Worpel did not have the tank early to be a full time mid but worked on that over his first pre season and played as a full time mid the year after. Rayner obviously has more talent but for whatever reason has not managed to get to that level of fitness required.

63 games is enough of a sample size to judge him for what he is (at the moment). He is really really underwhelming for a number 1 pick, he has time on his side and i hope he breaks out. But assessing the draft at the moment he is clearly a long way from where the Lions would have been hoping he would have been 4 years in to his career.

 

[TigerTime88]

We signed him for unders!

ha ha sure you did

 

[Wild Bill]

He was always going to take a couple years longer to hit anything near his prime, that’s how low a fitness base he was coming from when he was drafted. I’m happy with the flashes and signs he’s shown so far.
He’s been one of our better finals performers over the last few years and he put in the work last pre-season to impact more consistently throughout games before his injury. Time will tell where he ends up but I’m confident he still becomes a very good, impactful player.

Hang on - one of out better finals performers?? He had 5 touches v the Tigers, 6 touches v the the Cats last year and the final before that 8 touches v GWS.

You can’t spin these stats into gold.

 

[mattsmob]

Hang on - one of out better finals performers?? He had 5 touches v the Tigers, 6 touches v the the Cats last year and the final before that 8 touches v GWS.

You can’t spin these stats into gold.

If you’re bored go watch the games, anyways I’m going to leave it here.

 

[Wild Bill]

If you’re bored go watch the games, anyways I’m going to leave it here.

Watch the games? 0 coaches votes - never named in the best players - 1 of your better performed finals players??

It’s a really poor call.