Review 2017 - Revisit the 2017 AFL draft

Joined
Sep 10, 2015
Posts
2,492
Likes
6,965
AFL Club
Fremantle
I think the most interesting thing about this draft so far is the lack of pure midfielders, the types that play 80-90% of the game in there.

I'm not sure Rayner and Stephenson ever make that progression, particularly Rayner.

This is not to say they arent the best two from the draft so far, I think they are, but I think they will be forwards first with spurts in the middle.

No player may reach the heights Kelly is at right now but they have a lot of time to make the leap and some will have played 100 good games of useful footy before they even reach his draft age, which is something no one on here ever remembers when re-doing the draft 10 years later. Just because a players peak is better than everyone else, doesnt mean they were the best draft pick. There has to be some value on the games played prior and after the 3-4 years players have at the peak of their powers.

So at this stage, the only players that look like they'll be midfield starts are Kelly, Brayshaw, Cerra and Worpel. Maybe Richards? Do Saints fans see Clark and Coffield making a move to the midfield eventually.

Compared to 2016 and 2018 (which looks incredible), I think this draft will fall below those two.

Edit: Forgetting Constable who has shown a bit and Dow and LDU who have shown as much as or less then Brayshaw IMO.

Of the kids so far, probably only Cerra and Worpel could maybe get to Kelly's current level, which I would put as top 10. The rest look like being top 50 players at best
 
Last edited:

(Log in to remove this ad.)

Wojcinski

If your dad has no beard, you've got two mums
Joined
Aug 14, 2011
Posts
10,043
Likes
13,111
AFL Club
Geelong
I think the most interesting thing about this draft so far is the lack of pure midfielders, the types that play 80-90% of the game in there.

I'm not sure Rayner and Stephenson ever make that progression, particularly Rayner.

This is not to say they arent the best two from the draft so far, I think they are, but I think they will be forwards first with spurts in the middle.

No player may reach the heights Kelly is at right now but they have a lot of time to make the leap and some will have played 100 good games of useful footy before they even reach his draft age, which is something no one on here ever remembers when re-doing the draft 10 years later. Just because a players peak is better than everyone else, doesnt mean they were the best draft pick. There has to be some value on the games played prior and after the 3-4 years players have at the peak of their powers.

So at this stage, the only players that look like they'll be midfield starts are Kelly, Brayshaw, Cerra and Worpel. Maybe Richards? Do Saints fans see Clark and Coffield making a move to the midfield eventually.

Compared to 2016 and 2018 (which looks incredible), I think this draft will fall below those two
Charlie Constable
 
Joined
Sep 16, 2015
Posts
2,636
Likes
2,693
Location
Inside 50
AFL Club
Fremantle
Other Teams
Claremont Tigers
I think the most interesting thing about this draft so far is the lack of pure midfielders, the types that play 80-90% of the game in there.

I'm not sure Rayner and Stephenson ever make that progression, particularly Rayner.

This is not to say they arent the best two from the draft so far, I think they are, but I think they will be forwards first with spurts in the middle.

No player may reach the heights Kelly is at right now but they have a lot of time to make the leap and some will have played 100 good games of useful footy before they even reach his draft age, which is something no one on here ever remembers when re-doing the draft 10 years later. Just because a players peak is better than everyone else, doesnt mean they were the best draft pick. There has to be some value on the games played prior and after the 3-4 years players have at the peak of their powers.

So at this stage, the only players that look like they'll be midfield starts are Kelly, Brayshaw, Cerra and Worpel. Maybe Richards? Do Saints fans see Clark and Coffield making a move to the midfield eventually.

Compared to 2016 and 2018 (which looks incredible), I think this draft will fall below those two
Good point. Dow and LDU were drafted as pure mids. Jury still out though as to whether they will be 'midfield stars'. They both seem to have some pretty significant deficiencies in their game and LDU, in particular, looked miles off it in his first year.
 

HARKER

Hall of Famer
Joined
Oct 15, 2008
Posts
49,796
Likes
64,960
Location
Melbourne
AFL Club
Carlton
So at this stage, the only players that look like they'll be midfield starts are Kelly, Brayshaw, Cerra and Worpel. Maybe Richards? Do Saints fans see Clark and Coffield making a move to the midfield eventually.

Compared to 2016 and 2018 (which looks incredible), I think this draft will fall below those two.

Edit: Forgetting Constable who has shown a bit and Dow and LDU who have shown as much as or less then Brayshaw IMO.
Of the kids so far, probably only Cerra and Worpel could maybe get to Kelly's current level, which I would put as top 10. The rest look like being top 50 players at best
It's amazing how people can't read into what Dow will likely become.
Maybe amazing isn't even the right word. Not sure what it should be? :)

Has probably spent more midfield minutes than any other player and asked to do the heavy lifting at 19.

EDIT: Missed your edit, but still.
 

bungalow_bill

Premiership Player
Joined
Dec 11, 2010
Posts
4,901
Likes
4,269
AFL Club
Brisbane Lions
I think the most interesting thing about this draft so far is the lack of pure midfielders, the types that play 80-90% of the game in there.

I'm not sure Rayner and Stephenson ever make that progression, particularly Rayner.

This is not to say they arent the best two from the draft so far, I think they are, but I think they will be forwards first with spurts in the middle.

No player may reach the heights Kelly is at right now but they have a lot of time to make the leap and some will have played 100 good games of useful footy before they even reach his draft age, which is something no one on here ever remembers when re-doing the draft 10 years later. Just because a players peak is better than everyone else, doesnt mean they were the best draft pick. There has to be some value on the games played prior and after the 3-4 years players have at the peak of their powers.

So at this stage, the only players that look like they'll be midfield starts are Kelly, Brayshaw, Cerra and Worpel. Maybe Richards? Do Saints fans see Clark and Coffield making a move to the midfield eventually.

Compared to 2016 and 2018 (which looks incredible), I think this draft will fall below those two.

Edit: Forgetting Constable who has shown a bit and Dow and LDU who have shown as much as or less then Brayshaw IMO.

Of the kids so far, probably only Cerra and Worpel could maybe get to Kelly's current level, which I would put as top 10. The rest look like being top 50 players at best
Rayner will not be a mid fielder correct more like an even better version of De Goey. Or something like Dustin Martin. Potential to be the best player in the comp at his peak.
 
Joined
Sep 10, 2015
Posts
2,492
Likes
6,965
AFL Club
Fremantle
Rayner will not be a mid fielder correct more like an even better version of De Goey. Or something like Dustin Martin. Potential to be the best player in the comp at his peak.
I did say he was my in top 2 at the moment. Does have that potential, factually and statistically it is very unlikely, otherwise we would have a lot of "best players in the comp' and my main point was about the pure mids which may have been lost amongst my dribbling.
 
Joined
Sep 10, 2015
Posts
2,492
Likes
6,965
AFL Club
Fremantle
It's amazing how people can't read into what Dow will likely become.
Maybe amazing isn't even the right word. Not sure what it should be? :)

Has probably spent more midfield minutes than any other player and asked to do the heavy lifting at 19.

EDIT: Missed your edit, but still.
Not sure if you missed my edit that is in your quote...

I'm going to be honest, if we were all to believe Carlton supporters in their rankings of their players, you guys are about to win 5 flags on the trot.

Statistically, you would be happy if as I said, Dow gets to be a top 50 player
 

HARKER

Hall of Famer
Joined
Oct 15, 2008
Posts
49,796
Likes
64,960
Location
Melbourne
AFL Club
Carlton
Not sure if you missed my edit that is in your quote...
I'm going to be honest, if we were all to believe Carlton supporters in their rankings of their players, you guys are about to win 5 flags on the trot.
Statistically, you would be happy if as I said, Dow gets to be a top 50 player
Statistically and in reality, he's been a more impactful player than Cerra or Brayshaw.
Doesn't matter what I'm happy or unhappy about. It doesn't form part of the discussion.

Have a look at your own board for a reality check, with many wanting both players dropped this week.
 

briztoon

Norm Smith Medallist
Joined
Nov 28, 2015
Posts
6,756
Likes
6,110
AFL Club
Brisbane Lions
Other Teams
NUFC, Philadelphia 76'ers
And when we drafted him at 6 based on his proven playing record both as a midfielder and as a forward...

To think Stephenson is just a forward with no upside potential by playing more midfield is just ridiculous.
Can you point out where I posted anything to the contrary.

I just commented on where Stephenson played mostly as a junior as I believed you misrepresented his junior football career somewhat.

It's well documented by Cal Twomey on his podcast and articles, and other draft watchers on the draft page, that Stephenson played primarily as a forward at TAC level and U18 Champs and that recruiters questioned his ability to play midfield, which is why he was moved in to a midfield role after the U18 champs.
 
Joined
Sep 10, 2015
Posts
2,492
Likes
6,965
AFL Club
Fremantle
Statistically and in reality, he's been a more impactful player than Cerra or Brayshaw.
Doesn't matter what I'm happy or unhappy about. It doesn't form part of the discussion.

Have a look at your own board for a reality check, with many wanting both players dropped this week.
I think if we did a poll on here, and we kind of have with all the rankings, no one is taking Dow above Cerra. So again, you guys rate your players very highly with no neutrals sharing your very optimistic views. I've seen your supporters put McKay over Oliver in a redraft which is about the stupidest thing I've read on here.

I said I put him in the same category as Brayshaw.

Yes, I have been on my board, people want them dropped to have a rest for the most part before coming back in. I doubt both squads are in the same position so comparisons to some people wanting to drop Cerra or AB dont hold much merit. For example, we also have another young guy, North, tearing up the WAFL who they want to see play and Blakely to fit back into the middle this week.

Given Dow's performances this year vary between poor and decent, if none of your supporters want him dropped to spend some time developing in the VFL in the same way they want AB or Cerra dropped that just seems more of an inditement on where you're at as a club
 

(Log in to remove this ad.)

Joined
Sep 25, 2013
Posts
2,931
Likes
2,825
AFL Club
Carlton
Other Teams
CCFC
Dow relied on power and strength a fair bit in his draft year which is what made him so good, he is an explosive player and not a slower accumulator.

There’s been a few times this year where he’s bounced off 2-3 players and burst out of a pack and no one has got near him. Other times he gets caught and can be prone to poor disposal, which is slowly getting rectified. I don’t want to say he plays like Danger but he shares some similar traits especially Danger at 20/21.

IMO as his body gets up to speed and he adds some size he’ll be a very valuable midfielder, close to the best in this draft (albeit a weak one for mids).
 

HARKER

Hall of Famer
Joined
Oct 15, 2008
Posts
49,796
Likes
64,960
Location
Melbourne
AFL Club
Carlton
I think if we did a poll on here, and we kind of have with all the rankings, no one is taking Dow above Cerra. So again, you guys rate your players very highly with no neutrals sharing your very optimistic views. I've seen your supporters put McKay over Oliver in a redraft which is about the stupidest thing I've read on here.

I said I put him in the same category as Brayshaw.

Yes, I have been on my board, people want them dropped to have a rest for the most part before coming back in. I doubt both squads are in the same position so comparisons to some people wanting to drop Cerra or AB dont hold much merit. For example, we also have another young guy, North, tearing up the WAFL who they want to see play and Blakely to fit back into the middle this week.

Given Dow's performances this year vary between poor and decent, if none of your supporters want him dropped to spend some time developing in the VFL in the same way they want AB or Cerra dropped that just seems more of an inditement on where you're at as a club
Maybe, but you don't see that you're over-rating your players?
You can do this of course as much as you care to say that some supporters rate McKay over Oliver, but this wasn't 'my' point.

It's not an indictment on the club to have Dow playing at all, as the CFC have opted to omit Murphy and ECurnow from midfield duties in order to develop the younger guys (Dow, SPS, Fisher & Walsh). This may be a good thing and it may be a bad thing, but this is the thing.
Just on Dow though, he had a very limited pre-season for injury, but his kicking needs some support no doubt, hence Diesel Williams.

Maybe it's just a 'thing' to under-rate Dow for others right now. That's OK, but I'm just telling you you aren't looking hard enough.
 

bungalow_bill

Premiership Player
Joined
Dec 11, 2010
Posts
4,901
Likes
4,269
AFL Club
Brisbane Lions
I think the most interesting thing about this draft so far is the lack of pure midfielders, the types that play 80-90% of the game in there.

I'm not sure Rayner and Stephenson ever make that progression, particularly Rayner.

This is not to say they arent the best two from the draft so far, I think they are, but I think they will be forwards first with spurts in the middle.

No player may reach the heights Kelly is at right now but they have a lot of time to make the leap and some will have played 100 good games of useful footy before they even reach his draft age, which is something no one on here ever remembers when re-doing the draft 10 years later. Just because a players peak is better than everyone else, doesnt mean they were the best draft pick. There has to be some value on the games played prior and after the 3-4 years players have at the peak of their powers.

So at this stage, the only players that look like they'll be midfield starts are Kelly, Brayshaw, Cerra and Worpel. Maybe Richards? Do Saints fans see Clark and Coffield making a move to the midfield eventually.

Compared to 2016 and 2018 (which looks incredible), I think this draft will fall below those two.

Edit: Forgetting Constable who has shown a bit and Dow and LDU who have shown as much as or less then Brayshaw IMO.

Of the kids so far, probably only Cerra and Worpel could maybe get to Kelly's current level, which I would put as top 10. The rest look like being top 50 players at best

Also Zac Bailey while in the back line at present could make a move to the mid field. A very exciting young player
 
Joined
Sep 10, 2015
Posts
2,492
Likes
6,965
AFL Club
Fremantle
Maybe, but you don't see that you're over-rating your players?
You can do this of course as much as you care to say that some supporters rate McKay over Oliver, but this wasn't 'my' point.

It's not an indictment on the club to have Dow playing at all, as the CFC have opted to omit Murphy and ECurnow from midfield duties in order to develop the younger guys (Dow, SPS, Fisher & Walsh). This may be a good thing and it may be a bad thing, but this is the thing.
Just on Dow though, he had a very limited pre-season for injury, but his kicking needs some support no doubt, hence Diesel Williams.

Maybe it's just a 'thing' to under-rate Dow for others right now. That's OK, but I'm just telling you you aren't looking hard enough.
I am using neutrals here to verify that Cerra is universally rated higher than Dow, where as you are saying, Dow is under rated because Carlton supporters know better. Who's over-rating here...

I have said Brayshaw and Dow are on about the same level. I think that's a fair assessment, If I'm over-rating AB compared to Dow I dont think its by much, its not like I'm saying AB will be a superstar and Dow a dud. I'm saying both project as top 50 players at best. Both have serious issues with kicking. Dow's strength is his burst speed, AB his two-way running/tackling.

Given my stance compared to yours, I assume you rate Dow significantly higher than AB and higher or on the same level as Cerra?

It doesnt seem hypocritical for you to tell me I'm not looking hard enough at your player but then you rate your player higher than mine based on what exactly?

And I've looked at your board now, there are people who want him dropped / rested for the same reasons as on our board.
 

HARKER

Hall of Famer
Joined
Oct 15, 2008
Posts
49,796
Likes
64,960
Location
Melbourne
AFL Club
Carlton
I am using neutrals here to verify that Cerra is universally rated higher than Dow, where as you are saying, Dow is under rated because Carlton supporters know better. Who's over-rating here...
I have said Brayshaw and Dow are on about the same level. I think that's a fair assessment, If I'm over-rating AB compared to Dow I dont think its by much, its not like I'm saying AB will be a superstar and Dow a dud. I'm saying both project as top 50 players at best. Both have serious issues with kicking. Dow's strength is his burst speed, AB his two-way running/tackling.
Given my stance compared to yours, I assume you rate Dow significantly higher than AB and higher or on the same level as Cerra?
It doesnt seem hypocritical for you to tell me I'm not looking hard enough at your player but then you rate your player higher than mine based on what exactly?
And I've looked at your board now, there are people who want him dropped / rested for the same reasons as on our board.

First, I rated Dow ahead of Brayshaw and Cerra before the draft. It's on record.
That's after watching the champs and I understand why Fremantle took Brayshaw @ #2 and it wasn't all about getting the best player.
They just knew what the teams after tham were likely to do and the Brayshaw/Cerra duo was appealing. fair enough.
I like Dow for the burst player he was then and he is now. I just don't think people are seeing this just yet and yes....you included.
The focus has been on some poor kicking but I see he's not alone here when discussing butchering the ball. I didn't see the Freo game, but apparently.....

YOU SAID:
So at this stage, the only players that look like they'll be midfield starts are Kelly, Brayshaw, Cerra and Worpel. Maybe Richards? Do Saints fans see Clark and Coffield making a move to the midfield eventually.

Compared to 2016 and 2018 (which looks incredible), I think this draft will fall below those two.


Edit: Forgetting Constable who has shown a bit and Dow and LDU who have shown as much as or less then Brayshaw IMO.

I did get the bolded before I saw the addition to your post and reacted accordingly. (Don't know why I didn't see it as it showed up in the post)
In summary, I feel many are severely under-rating Dow and it's not up to me to prove that to be the case. I guess it will be up to Dow to do the converting.


Do I still prefer Dow to all the other teenage mids? Absolutely, but I did 2 years ago.
 
Joined
Sep 10, 2015
Posts
2,492
Likes
6,965
AFL Club
Fremantle
First, I rated Dow ahead of Brayshaw and Cerra before the draft. It's on record.
That's after watching the champs and I understand why Fremantle took Brayshaw @ #2 and it wasn't all about getting the best player.
They just knew what the teams after tham were likely to do and the Brayshaw/Cerra duo was appealing. fair enough.
I like Dow for the burst player he was then and he is now. I just don't think people are seeing this just yet and yes....you included.
The focus has been on some poor kicking but I see he's not alone here when discussing butchering the ball. I didn't see the Freo game, but apparently.....

YOU SAID:
So at this stage, the only players that look like they'll be midfield starts are Kelly, Brayshaw, Cerra and Worpel. Maybe Richards? Do Saints fans see Clark and Coffield making a move to the midfield eventually.

Compared to 2016 and 2018 (which looks incredible), I think this draft will fall below those two.


Edit: Forgetting Constable who has shown a bit and Dow and LDU who have shown as much as or less then Brayshaw IMO.

I did get the bolded before I saw the addition to your post and reacted accordingly. (Don't know why I didn't see it as it showed up in the post)
In summary, I feel many are severely under-rating Dow and it's not up to me to prove that to be the case. I guess it will be up to Dow to do the converting.


Do I still prefer Dow to all the other teenage mids? Absolutely, but I did 2 years ago.
You not seeing the edit is likely my fault for missing Dow in the first place and it popped into your quote while responding to my initial post.

In the end, you rate Dow very highly, which is entirely your prerogative and as a Carlton supporter you'll have seen the most of him.

I dont think many would say I am being unreasonable in rating him below Cerra and the same level as Brayshaw but we are all subject to bias and all just guessing and going off "feel" at this early stage

I appreciate the friendly debate without dick measuring
 

HARKER

Hall of Famer
Joined
Oct 15, 2008
Posts
49,796
Likes
64,960
Location
Melbourne
AFL Club
Carlton
You not seeing the edit is likely my fault for missing Dow in the first place and it popped into your quote while responding to my initial post.
In the end, you rate Dow very highly, which is entirely your prerogative and as a Carlton supporter you'll have seen the most of him.
I dont think many would say I am being unreasonable in rating him below Cerra and the same level as Brayshaw but we are all subject to bias and all just guessing and going off "feel" at this early stage
I appreciate the friendly debate without dick measuring
Thank you, also.

We did have people on our board who preferred Cerra over Dow and maybe still do, so it's not all a Carlton-fans thing.
Given we didn't have any of that 'Dangerfield' factor at the CFC, Dow really appealed not just to me but obviously to the recruiters, also.
I can see that Cerra would win in a poll, but knowing what I know, I'm more than happy with the midfield mix we're now developing.

Anyway, Stephenson was rated by astute observers as being the best talent from the draft and he can go through the midfield also.
Going to be tough to knock him off that #1 mantle. Super classy player with more than just one trick.
 

Wild Bill

Brownlow Medallist
Joined
May 28, 2013
Posts
19,682
Likes
19,225
AFL Club
North Melbourne
Other Teams
Seattle Seahawks
Thread starter #2,096
What's Cerra's DE like? Pre draft the general consensus was that his kicking is elite
This year its 67%. Dow is going at 61% but has higher contested numbers. Alot of the 2nd year players are in the 60's - Stephenson, Brayshaw & Raynor.

Funny LDU is going at 80% but at North we don't like players that can hit a target.
 
Joined
Oct 2, 2007
Posts
33,493
Likes
27,531
Location
Perth
AFL Club
Carlton
Moderator #2,097
Good point. Dow and LDU were drafted as pure mids. Jury still out though as to whether they will be 'midfield stars'. They both seem to have some pretty significant deficiencies in their game and LDU, in particular, looked miles off it in his first year.
Im more than happy with how Dow is travelling for a second year mid (still a teenager till October).

His kicking has been poor this year, but second year blues and all that.

Kicking is something that can be fixed.

He's shown he can find it, has pace, mongrel and a balanced game. Just needs to tidy that kicking up, and get a few pre-seasons into him and I reckon he'll more than justify his selection at 3.
 
Joined
Sep 16, 2015
Posts
2,636
Likes
2,693
Location
Inside 50
AFL Club
Fremantle
Other Teams
Claremont Tigers
Im more than happy with how Dow is travelling for a second year mid (still a teenager till October).

His kicking has been poor this year, but second year blues and all that.

Kicking is something that can be fixed.

He's shown he can find it, has pace, mongrel and a balanced game. Just needs to tidy that kicking up, and get a few pre-seasons into him and I reckon he'll more than justify his selection at 3.
Yes, he'll have to work on his kicking. I always reckon the second year is a player's most difficult. Still only 2 pre-seasons in, plenty of weight still to put on and learning all the time.

It's a bit unfair at times. You don't get the luxury of being the shinny new toy where 10 possessions gets you a "he looks really comfortable at this level" type comment, and even though they've still only played a handful of games, we're all impatient to see them turn into 30 possession midfielders.
 
Top Bottom