List Mgmt. 2017 Trade and Free Agency Discussion - #Leverpulled and #Harleyrevved

[Theo X]

He's 2x first rounders because that is what the market deems him to be. The markets worth is completely independent to his own worth to our side. We hide his weaknesses with our structure, but equally will hold him back from fulfilling that potential superstardom as we simply don't need him to be that.

A luxury to one team is a key component to the other, and make no mistake, to us he is a luxury.

What market has deemed Lever worth 2 first rounders? That's what Adelaide have/will ask for knowing it's way overs and will be negotiated down to something reasonable for an out of contract player. And 'the market' will only be one team, which he nominates.

 

[Willo 17]

I'd much prefer to keep Salem but perhaps he'd be involved in a three-way trade with Carlton and Adelaide with Lever/Gibbs.

Talk in Adelaide involves Brisbane Carlton Melbourne, Schache? , Gibbs, Lever. plus mix up of picks.

 

[Golumless]

What market has deemed Lever worth 2 first rounders? That's what Adelaide have/will ask for knowing it's way overs and will be negotiated down to something reasonable for an out of contract player. And 'the market' will only be one team, which he nominates.

Like everything, precedent dictates what is likely. For this, Lever is a <23-4yo (So everyone favourite buzzword, potential is in play), has prior high level performance without any injury/other issues, and is a safe bet to be top 10% in his position (KPD) at his peak (worth noting, I'm very hesitant to include anything prior to the introduction of future trading as the change in rules changed how the market works). Another thing to note is it tends to be that gun KPFs, top line midfielders and gun KPDs are all comparable in worth in salary/collateral, as these are the only three positions that can attract >800k, offers (which history also states comes with a hefty price tag to lure him); with there being less worth too gun pure outside midfielders, pure ruckmen and small forwards. Kind of makes sense too seeing KPFs/KPDs/Midfielders act as a spine of the side, and what is built around, which is what the intention of every trade I mention; add a gun piece to what a potential premiership side is built around.

The trades that meet all criteria are to this:

Adam Treloar - which ended up costing Collingwood 2 firsts and pick upgrade.
Tom Boyd (a tad strenuous, definitely meets the top 10% criteria, but it's arguable that he hadn't shown he was a safe bet to deliver on the promised potential) - Griffin and a first

To include trades with players who met the criteria but had injury/other issues:

Harley Bennell - 1st and 2nd round
Jaegar O'Meara -1st and second
Dion Prestia (maybe not top 10%, but I've always rated him) - 1st and a upgrade of 2nd.

Now why i'm not including certain players - O'Rourke definitely hadn't shown enough at GWS he was going to live up to the hype within his first 2-3 seasons (still isn't as of now), Tom Mitchell didn't have the performance at Sydney behind him, despite scintillating neafl form, Jack Steele similar to Tom Mitchell, Cam McCarthy is well an enigma as to whether to include him or not seeing he sat out the year and no one else in the time period are really comparable.

What this shows is if you want to attract a gun player in a "spine" position, who has proven performance and a likely high ceiling, the cost is around two firsts in the current state of the market.

 

[Sellout Scully]

Like everything, precedent dictates what is likely. For this, Lever is a <23-4yo (So everyone favourite buzzword, potential is in play), has prior high level performance without any injury/other issues, and is a safe bet to be top 10% in his position (KPD) at his peak (worth noting, I'm very hesitant to include anything prior to the introduction of future trading as the change in rules changed how the market works). Another thing to note is it tends to be that gun KPFs, top line midfielders and gun KPDs are all comparable in worth in salary/collateral, as these are the only three positions that can attract >800k, offers (which history also states comes with a hefty price tag to lure him); with there being less worth too gun pure outside midfielders, pure ruckmen and small forwards. Kind of makes sense too seeing KPFs/KPDs/Midfielders act as a spine of the side, and what is built around, which is what the intention of every trade I mention; add a gun piece to what a potential premiership side is built around.

The trades that meet all criteria are to this:

Adam Treloar - which ended up costing Collingwood 2 firsts and pick upgrade.
Tom Boyd (a tad strenuous, definitely meets the top 10% criteria, but it's arguable that he hadn't shown he was a safe bet to deliver on the promised potential) - Griffin and a first

To include trades with players who met the criteria but had injury/other issues:

Harley Bennell - 1st and 2nd round
Jaegar O'Meara -1st and second
Dion Prestia (maybe not top 10%, but I've always rated him) - 1st and a upgrade of 2nd.

Now why i'm not including certain players - O'Rourke definitely hadn't shown enough at GWS he was going to live up to the hype within his first 2-3 seasons (still isn't as of now), Tom Mitchell didn't have the performance at Sydney behind him, despite scintillating neafl form, Jack Steele similar to Tom Mitchell, Cam McCarthy is well an enigma as to whether to include him or not seeing he sat out the year and no one else in the time period are really comparable.

What this shows is if you want to attract a gun player in a "spine" position, who has proven performance and a likely high ceiling, the cost is around two firsts in the current state of the market.

There is a belief here that if we give up two first rounders for Lever we'd want something back in return, with most mooting a second round pick.

If the Crows didn't want to give some picks back, are there any players from the Crows that could potentially be added to the deal along with Lever as sort of stakeknives? At the moment Dees need a backup ruck (please don't suggest Riley O'Brien), some outside run and maybe another pressure medium forward.

 

[Willo 17]

Harley Balic linked to a move to Dees but it is the silly season, so wait and see policy in action. Then I popped over to freo's page and they are right into Hogan moving over there. A given some say.

 

[LeverPuller]

Harley Balic linked to a move to Dees but it is the silly season, so wait and see policy in action. Then I popped over to freo's page and they are right into Hogan moving over there. A given some say.

Ignore the Freo board, they're buying into the stupid section of the rumour department.

 

[Devastating Boris]

Talk in Adelaide involves Brisbane Carlton Melbourne, Schache? , Gibbs, Lever. plus mix up of picks.

I heard this (and posted) a couple of weeks ago when talk of Martin coming first arose. Since then however Schache has jumped in his car doing a tour of the east coast.

 

[Willo 17]

I heard this (and posted) a couple of weeks ago when talk of Martin coming first arose. Since then however Schache has jumped in his car doing a tour of the east coast.

Supposed to have cleaned out most of his possessions from Queensland and left basics only. Club mates think he is on the trade table.

 

[Devastating Boris]

Supposed to have cleaned out most of his possessions from Queensland and left basics only. Club mates think he is on the trade table.

Yup I did hear something far fetched about him re-signing to give lions strength in negotiations with a team which has apparently been known for some time as his preferred destination.

 

[El Gringo]

I'm really not sold on the proposed Adelaide/Carlton/Melbourne trade. Crows and Blues couldn't get a deal done last year because Carlton wanted too much for Gibbs. We're going to pay what it will take for Adelaide to land Gibbs but get Lever instead.

It feels kind of trade-rapey to me, is Lever really equal to or better than Gibbs?

 

[LeverPuller]

I'm really not sold on the proposed Adelaide/Carlton/Melbourne trade. Crows and Blues couldn't get a deal done last year because Carlton wanted too much for Gibbs. We're going to pay what it will take for Adelaide to land Gibbs but get Lever instead.

It feels kind of trade-rapey to me, is Lever really equal to or better than Gibbs?

7 years younger and he's pretty bloody good...

 

[El Gringo]

7 years younger and he's pretty bloody good...

Gibbs on his day is one of the best midfielders in the comp, consistency obviously being a knock but in a midfield with Sloane, Jacobs and the Crouch brothers could go to another level.

Lever is a young KPD, looked good so far and all but is he really worth the price of a Gibbs?

 

[ThePuppetMaster]

* this Salem talk - played some great footy this year but struggled post injury after being thrown in too early

 

[LeverPuller]

Gibbs on his day is one of the best midfielders in the comp, consistency obviously being a knock but in a midfield with Sloane, Jacobs and the Crouch brothers could go to another level.

Lever is a young KPD, looked good so far and all but is he really worth the price of a Gibbs?

The difference lies in the age. Gibbs is at peak age - that perfect point where he has all of the experience but the body hasn't begun to really fall away.

Lever hasn't. He's only 21 and will still likely develop in both his body and mind. If we get him signed up on a 5-7 year deal (and I'd be in favour of the latter) then by the time he hits that magical age of 23 he'll be ready to rock.

 

[PerfectFooty]

It really works to deal with Carlton, Adelaide want Gibbs for a premiership tilt (or defence). Carlton want Picks to stockpile the next wave of youth, and we of course want Lever. Honestly a three way trade makes sense and is able to satisfy all parties

 

[El Gringo]

The difference lies in the age. Gibbs is at peak age - that perfect point where he has all of the experience but the body hasn't begun to really fall away.

Lever hasn't. He's only 21 and will still likely develop in both his body and mind. If we get him signed up on a 5-7 year deal (and I'd be in favour of the latter) then by the time he hits that magical age of 23 he'll be ready to rock.

I'm not doubting his talent or potential but has 2 first round picks ever been traded for a KPD before (or even a 1st and 2nd rounder combo)? That appears to be currency you would only spend on an elite midfielder, which is why I'm seriously questioning our part in the proposed trade.

One of the best defenders in the comp this year, Sam Docherty, was landed for a straight swap with pick 33.

 

[ABray10]

Like everything, precedent dictates what is likely. For this, Lever is a <23-4yo (So everyone favourite buzzword, potential is in play), has prior high level performance without any injury/other issues, and is a safe bet to be top 10% in his position (KPD) at his peak (worth noting, I'm very hesitant to include anything prior to the introduction of future trading as the change in rules changed how the market works). Another thing to note is it tends to be that gun KPFs, top line midfielders and gun KPDs are all comparable in worth in salary/collateral, as these are the only three positions that can attract >800k, offers (which history also states comes with a hefty price tag to lure him); with there being less worth too gun pure outside midfielders, pure ruckmen and small forwards. Kind of makes sense too seeing KPFs/KPDs/Midfielders act as a spine of the side, and what is built around, which is what the intention of every trade I mention; add a gun piece to what a potential premiership side is built around.

The trades that meet all criteria are to this:

Adam Treloar - which ended up costing Collingwood 2 firsts and pick upgrade.
Tom Boyd (a tad strenuous, definitely meets the top 10% criteria, but it's arguable that he hadn't shown he was a safe bet to deliver on the promised potential) - Griffin and a first

To include trades with players who met the criteria but had injury/other issues:

Harley Bennell - 1st and 2nd round
Jaegar O'Meara -1st and second
Dion Prestia (maybe not top 10%, but I've always rated him) - 1st and a upgrade of 2nd.

Now why i'm not including certain players - O'Rourke definitely hadn't shown enough at GWS he was going to live up to the hype within his first 2-3 seasons (still isn't as of now), Tom Mitchell didn't have the performance at Sydney behind him, despite scintillating neafl form, Jack Steele similar to Tom Mitchell, Cam McCarthy is well an enigma as to whether to include him or not seeing he sat out the year and no one else in the time period are really comparable.

What this shows is if you want to attract a gun player in a "spine" position, who has proven performance and a likely high ceiling, the cost is around two firsts in the current state of the market.

After reading all that, all I came out with is that two firsts are very rarely traded, except for Treloar and the Pies got something like pick 21 back in that trade. Also it hasn't been a resounding success as far as playing finals goes, and a lot people thought they had paid quite highly for him.

Also Tom Mitchell played plenty of good games at AFL level for Sydney, not sure if you didn't watch many of their games or if you just missed him, but he had shown a fair bit with limited midfield minutes.

 

[LeverPuller]

I'm not doubting his talent or potential but has 2 first round picks ever been traded for a KPD before (or even a 1st and 2nd rounder combo)? That appears to be currency you would only spend on an elite midfielder, which is why I'm seriously questioning our part in the proposed trade.

One of the best defenders in the comp this year, Sam Docherty, was landed for a straight swap with pick 33.

The thing is not many defenders get traded at value. Marchbank, Doc, hell even Carlisle had extenuating circumstances.

 

[LeverPuller]

Just saw the Crows asked for Trac or Oliver.

 

[Marc_Remillard]

Just saw the Crows asked for Trac or Oliver.

LOL, there was a norf moron trying to argue that, was very funny

 

[Cannon82]

The difference lies in the age. Gibbs is at peak age - that perfect point where he has all of the experience but the body hasn't begun to really fall away.

Gibbs will be 29 by the time he pulls a guernsey on in anger for a new club (should that happen). Two firsts for five good years if you're very lucky? Seems a bit much.

 

[Proper Gander]

Gibbs will be 29 by the time he pulls a guernsey on in anger for a new club (should that happen). Two firsts for five good years if you're very lucky? Seems a bit much.

Way too much. Also Crows need for Gibbs seems somewhat less given the Crouch improvement factor.

Pre Trade week Bigfooty is delivering.

 

[Topkent]

Gibbs will be 29 by the time he pulls a guernsey on in anger for a new club (should that happen). Two firsts for five good years if you're very lucky? Seems a bit much.

I suppose Adelaides first this year could well be 18 so it's only first round by definition. Would you trade 18 + say 12 from last year for pick 4?
I dunno but it seems around about the price.

 

[Theo X]

Like everything, precedent dictates what is likely. For this, Lever is a <23-4yo (So everyone favourite buzzword, potential is in play), has prior high level performance without any injury/other issues, and is a safe bet to be top 10% in his position (KPD) at his peak (worth noting, I'm very hesitant to include anything prior to the introduction of future trading as the change in rules changed how the market works). Another thing to note is it tends to be that gun KPFs, top line midfielders and gun KPDs are all comparable in worth in salary/collateral, as these are the only three positions that can attract >800k, offers (which history also states comes with a hefty price tag to lure him); with there being less worth too gun pure outside midfielders, pure ruckmen and small forwards. Kind of makes sense too seeing KPFs/KPDs/Midfielders act as a spine of the side, and what is built around, which is what the intention of every trade I mention; add a gun piece to what a potential premiership side is built around.

The trades that meet all criteria are to this:

Adam Treloar - which ended up costing Collingwood 2 firsts and pick upgrade.
Tom Boyd (a tad strenuous, definitely meets the top 10% criteria, but it's arguable that he hadn't shown he was a safe bet to deliver on the promised potential) - Griffin and a first

To include trades with players who met the criteria but had injury/other issues:

Harley Bennell - 1st and 2nd round
Jaegar O'Meara -1st and second
Dion Prestia (maybe not top 10%, but I've always rated him) - 1st and a upgrade of 2nd.

Now why i'm not including certain players - O'Rourke definitely hadn't shown enough at GWS he was going to live up to the hype within his first 2-3 seasons (still isn't as of now), Tom Mitchell didn't have the performance at Sydney behind him, despite scintillating neafl form, Jack Steele similar to Tom Mitchell, Cam McCarthy is well an enigma as to whether to include him or not seeing he sat out the year and no one else in the time period are really comparable.

What this shows is if you want to attract a gun player in a "spine" position, who has proven performance and a likely high ceiling, the cost is around two firsts in the current state of the market.

Pretty much everyone will admit Collingwood overpaid with the future pick for Treloar by assuming they'd finish higher than they did. Boyd was a contracted KPF recent pick 1 so a premium had to be payed, still only the equivalent of a 1st and second. Bennell, well 16 and 35 for Bennel and 22 hardly equates to a first and second rounder.
Seems to me his value is about a first and second rounder. The only odd one out is the Treloar trade, and Colonwood got screwed over thankfully. So no you most likely won't be getting 2 first rounders for an OOC player who nominates one club. No bidding wars there. Your club and mine are both reasonable at the trade table and a deal will be struck should he nominate us. 2 first round picks is not reasonable unless something substantial comes along with Lever. Jason Taylor will know how good next year's draft will be and should be loathe to give up a 2018 first. Oh and Tom Mitchell certainly did have runs on the board, moreso than Lever.

 

[Theo X]

Also, how can you say Lever has no injury issues? He's previously had an ACL tear, which automatically puts him at higher risk of another ACL injury, and how many hamstring strains did he have this year? 2? 3? No doubt related to the hamstring tendon graft used in his ACL reco. Just sayin'.