List Mgmt. 2017 Trade/Draft/FA SuperMegaUltra Thread - Post Trade-Period Edition

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Yeah thats some really good odds there. How many post round 1 midfielders have been taken over that time (20 years)? Hundreds? A THOUSAND?!

So thats what a 1-2% success rate? I didn't say its impossible I said it's highly unlikely and with better scouting techniques its actually getting HARDER not easier to get lucky.

Shuey was rated but was injured. Watson was a father son. You have to go back to Simon Black (20 YEARS AGO!) to pad out the list to double figures.

The odds are even worse then I thought. Thanks for proving my point.

So we should not pick a A grade KPP for a 1 in a 100 chance for A grade mid? Thank god you are not on our recruitment team.
Max zero
Here you go mate, this is you explaining to us why it would be pointless to draft Kelly or midfielders generally in the second round because you only get B-graders outside of the first round.

Implicitly you seem to be of the view that drafting A-grade KPPs in the second round and later is a much higher percentage play.

Got any stats to back your theory?
 

Max zero

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Jul 19, 2005
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Max zero
Here you go mate, this is you explaining to us why it would be pointless to draft Kelly or midfielders generally in the second round because you only get B-graders outside of the first round.

Implicitly you seem to be of the view that drafting A-grade KPPs in the second round and later is a much higher percentage play.

Got any stats to back your theory?
Did you even read what I was referring to or did you just read what you wanted to read to suit your argument?

This does not apply to just midfielders but to all picks. Don't expect a star outside the top 10 (or a superstar out of the top 5-6). Sure if you get one: lucky you! But otherwise expect everything from 11 onwards to just be decent rather then amazing and I reckon you will have a lot less grief.

The one exception to this is sliders and 'xfactor high risk' players. Sliders are often top talent but have a significant non football flaw that lowers their value. For Darling it was offield behavior, for Shuey it was injury for Lamb it was attitude. If you can fix this flaw you can get a bargain and 'cheat' the odds. It worked out for Shuey and Darling but didn't for Lamb.

In this current draft it's Ryan for commitment and for Petruccelle it's his non football background. Maybe we might strike it lucky.

Only early teen 1st round picks pretty much turned out as expected. Duggan and Sheed are good solid B grade midfielders. Do I hope one (or both) take the next step and become A graders? Hell yes but that is unlikely.

Just feel like posters drastically overrate draft picks ESPECIALLY outside the top half a dozen or so.
Here I will make it big for you so you don't ignore it:

This does not apply to just midfielders but to all picks.

I was refering to the general overrating of draft picks.

My stats are already there. Took you 20 years to find a very limited list of a dozen or so A grade mids taken in the second round. Piss poor strike rate. So instead of taking those speculative picks we should of traded them for know quantities like Tim Kelly. I 100% stand by that call.

Thats the best you got champ?
 

plays tall 1

All Australian
Aug 4, 2004
896
677
Lilliput
AFL Club
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Did you even read what I was referring to or did you just read what you wanted to read to suit your argument?



Here I will make it big for you so you don't ignore it:

This does not apply to just midfielders but to all picks.

I was refering to the general overrating of draft picks.

My stats are already there. Took you 20 years to find a very limited list of a dozen or so A grade mids taken in the second round. Piss poor strike rate. So instead of taking those speculative picks we should of traded them for know quantities like Tim Kelly. I 100% stand by that call.

Thats the best you got champ?
Let me repeat your words big boy in the hope it sinks a second time:

“So we should not pick a A grade KPP for a 1 in a 100 chance for A grade mid? Thank god you are not on our recruitment team.”

How do you know the KPP draft prospect is A grade? How do you know the midfielder is not A-grade. Your point was you don’t get elite midfielders outside the top 10. You got absolutely owned on that.

The current top 4 in the Brownlow market are midfielders and ALL were taken outside the top 10.

Kelly is currently Brownlow favourite. Ergo he’s elite. He was no WAFL plodder as you suggested.

You were wrong. That’s OK. But don’t make up sh#t about Kelly being a WAFL plodder to make yourself feel better.
 

Max zero

Premium Platinum
Jul 19, 2005
12,824
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Perth
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Let me repeat your words big boy in the hope it sinks a second time:

“So we should not pick a A grade KPP for a 1 in a 100 chance for A grade mid? Thank god you are not on our recruitment team.”

How do you know the KPP draft prospect is A grade? How do you know the midfielder is not A-grade. Your point was you don’t get elite midfielders outside the top 10. You got absolutely owned on that.

The current top 4 in the Brownlow market are midfielders and ALL were taken outside the top 10.

Kelly is currently Brownlow favourite. Ergo he’s elite. He was no WAFL plodder as you suggested.

You were wrong. That’s OK. But don’t make up sh#t about Kelly being a WAFL plodder to make yourself feel better.
Actually what I said the odds on getting elite mids outside the top 10 is very poor. Which is true. How is telling the truth being owned? You own examples proved it. Over 20 years how many mids were selected in the second round? Math would say hundreds. How many A grades came out? A dozen? What are the odds champ?

He was a plodder pre 2017. Why wasn't he drafted in those 4 years if he was so elite?

Or do you think you know better then every clubs recruiters?
 

plays tall 1

All Australian
Aug 4, 2004
896
677
Lilliput
AFL Club
West Coast
Actually what I said the odds on getting elite mids outside the top 10 is very poor. Which is true. How is telling the truth being owned? You own examples proved it. Over 20 years how many mids were selected in the second round? Math would say hundreds. How many A grades came out? A dozen? What are the odds champ?

He was a plodder pre 2017. Why wasn't he drafted in those 4 years if he was so elite?

Or do you think you know better then every clubs recruiters?
Kelly was a diamond in the rough. Recruiters are heavily biased to junior pathways. If blokes miss out on getting drafted in their under 18 year it gets much harder.

Kelly had injury problems that held him back in his under 18 year and after that. He had a full-time job as an electrician and a young family.


Nobody who saw him play in the WAFL would describe him as a plodder. It was a stupid comment.
 
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