List Mgmt. 2017 Trade & FA Targets Part 3

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aussierulesrules

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If we really like who we believe will be available at our first (Hawks) pick this year then I would definitely prefer we kept that pick, and got whoever we take into the club and developing immediately (if the alternative was trading that pick and taking someone in next year's draft at a pick that might hopefully be more like 11-14- and them being 12 months behind in development), but the potential negative to doing that is if you go hard for a Whitfield type next year and don't have a 2018 first rounder any more as trade currency, it makes getting a trade done much more difficult.

So there are pros and cons either way.

Of course the fact we don't have a 2nd rounder this year also makes trading both firsts out less than ideal, as it means we might not start until the 3rd round of the draft and if this draft is shallow as reputed, the 3rd round onwards is not exactly where you want to be taking all your live picks!
 

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If we really like who we believe will be available at our first (Hawks) pick this year then I would definitely prefer we kept that pick, and got whoever we take into the club and developing immediately (if the alternative was trading that pick and taking someone in next year's draft at a pick that might hopefully be more like 11-14- and them being 12 months behind in development), but the potential negative to doing that is if you go hard for a Whitfield type next year and don't have a 2018 first rounder any more as trade currency, it makes getting a trade done much more difficult.

So there are pros and cons either way.

Of course the fact we don't have a 2nd rounder this year also makes trading both firsts out less than ideal, as it means we might not start until the 3rd round of the draft and if this draft is shallow as reputed, the 3rd round onwards is not exactly where you want to be taking all your live picks!
True, but then we could just trade our 2019 pick. The '19 draft is going to be a cracker!
 

plugger66

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Not sure why you're getting so technical with hypotheticals mate.

But lets humour it, the market has a precedence of 2 first rounders over two years. GWS aren't in a position of power anyways, their player wants away and we have by all reports a good relationship with them.

If the player is like Dunstan/Ross then we have to bear it, there is as much chance as the player in 2018 being the same.

I look forward to hearing how else I'm wrong in the next hypothetical

Never said you were wrong. Just expressing a reason I don't think it will happen. You are saying we should do want you want but seem to forget there is another party. IMO we are getting greedy with trying to get Kelly. Greedy on here doubt the club will get to greedy. I remember when people were saying Kelly may cost pick 2 or 3 which was Hawthorns pick and around 9 or 10 which was our pick and now people want to give 9 or 10 and next years first which could easily be 12 or 13. If Kelly isn't sure where he want to go Carlton and North would blow us out of the park if we offered that rubbish. On points that probably isn't even equal to pick 2 that was his draft pick and we know he is now much better than that. If you want something badly enough you pay what is required. Many experts said we paid to much for Carlisle. That looks a good move now because we wanted him badly enough.
 

Wright 1

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Joey saying in an Herald Sun article about him calling Friday nights game on triple m that's he still in "limbo" but a "few scenrios" are being presented.

Wouldn't be surprised if he is offered the rookie role Schneider had and Fish was offered.
Pretty sure I read an article the other day saying the list management team were split over giving Joey another year, but it said specifically that the Schneider and Fisher deal was NOT going to be an option.
He is either a full list player or retires
 

Strahany

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The best piece of luck that could happen to the club is some kind of mishap within GWS' ruck stocks - if Kelly/other nominates us and GWS can't find a suitable individual ruck trade, then not only does it increase the value of St Kilda's rucks, but also helps mitigate some of the draft pick damage.
 

Tommy Wigs

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Just been chatting with a Carlton mate. Seriously I am going to spew if I hear anymore of 'Carlton are doing well’ or 'the blues rebuild looks good'.

Simpson, Murphy, Gibbs and Kreuzer are 4 of their 6 best players, and all will be over 29 next season. The following players will all be over 25 next year:

Thomas, A.Silvani, Rowe, White, Palmer, E.Curnow, Sheehan, Jones, Phillips, Gorringe, Smedts, Lamb, Buckley, Kerridge, Sumner and Brokenhorse

Seriously there is 1 good player among that 25-29 group. And that is Liam bloody Jones.

Along with Casbault leaving, and Armfield and Simpson probably retiring – that is almost 20 list changes needed before I even start picking on spuds such as Kirsten Jacksh and Nick Graham.

Yes Cripps and Docherty are stars, SPS and Curnow have shown glimpses, and Plowman, Weitering and Marchbank a good back 3. Silvani and Fisher I will cop at a stretch

But after those players (and the 4 over 29) they begin naming guys like McKay, Pickett, Cunningham and Macreadie who have barely played 10 games between them. Remember how many players we had who are going to be great (before they actually played) but never kicked on (when they actually did)? Maybe half of these guys make it. Maybe

Then yes they have the new good draft picks. But by the time these new picks start impacting (and that is still a maybe), 4 of their best 6 players will be gone.

They just barely avoided the spoon for the fifth time in 12 years and can’t kick even close to 100 points.

Oh and just for fun. Hypothetically if we get Kelly for two firsts:

We would have traded 2 firsts, a second and a third to GWS
For Josh Kelly, Josh Bruce & Jack Steele

Carlton will have traded 3 firsts, 2 seconds, 3 thirds and a fifth to GWS
For Jaksch, Whiley, Lamb, Sumner, Plowman, Phillips, Marchbank, Pickett, Palmer, a second and pick 19 which they used on Blaine Brokenhorse

There are a lot of things I am worried about in our rebuild. Carlton is not one of them.
Carlton are on their way for mine. Some terrific young talent. But they need more years and more high picks, which they'll probably get.
 

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bergholt

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Where was the emotion my friend?

It's time value, $100 today is better than $100 in a year cause you can invest with that $100 and get maybe $104.

Now for argument sake lets say next year's draft is better and our players worth $102 instead of this years draft of $100, do we back our player development to make the $2 gap within the year of elite environment and training.

Whilst this is factitious obviously I can't imagine any club wanted a player next year over a current one this year.
I have a theory that if you're up the top then it's better to have future picks than present picks. This is because there's a limit to the number of guys you can adequately develop at any one time, so picking up more kids runs the risk of some of them getting lost. Whereas if you can push the picks out a year or two, then you're better placed to build a strong group for your next core.

Just my guess at this point, future picks haven't been around long enough to see how that plays out.
 

Keg on legs

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Stanley pick 21 in a real trade.

Dunstan worth much more than 25

Hickey a better ruck than Stanley.

No over estimating, but we tend to undersell players I reckon.
6 weeks ago I would have thought a mid to late 2nd for dunstan. Now I reckon his stocks have risen significantly. Maybe 19-23ish or even a late 1st in a weak draft.

Hickey 25-30ish but he hasn't done himself too many favours with his on field performances this year sadly.
 

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Yeah but most of the good players will be gone by pick #18
We have to get a couple outside mids and a good tall defender if Kelly not up for trade then expect us to go after a Whitfield type - say he would be worth a first round draft pick and next years second round draft pick , leaving us one first round draft pick for this years draft to score a young guy in the draft (say the Hawks pick 7) this could net us a guy like Coffield as Crusty has mentioned or Stephenson.
Then use Weller , Armitage, Hickey and Lonie to secure a good defender and a young outside mid and get them to throw us back our round 2 draft pick back for the next year.
 

bergholt

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6 weeks ago I would have thought a mid to late 2nd for dunstan. Now I reckon his stocks have risen significantly. Maybe 19-23ish or even a late 1st in a weak draft.
Yeah, you might just be right. Last five games:

27.4 avg disposals
9.4 avg contested possessions
5.2 avg tackles
5.2 avg inside 50s
5.2 avg clearances
1.2 avg goal assists
5 goals
3 behinds

He looks a different player. If he averaged 27 touches for the whole year he'd be second behind Ross, ahead of Steven.
 

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We can't trade Dunstan he has just come good after all the time put in on him we have to keep him now, looks to me he could become one hell of a good player , at the start of the year I thought he was going to be another spud.
The same goes with Acres looks a good thing now with Sinclair and White looks like all the persistence it has paid off.
Times are looking good for the Saints with Billings , Steele , Gresham and Ross looks like we have a base of young good footballers.
 
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6 weeks ago I would have thought a mid to late 2nd for dunstan. Now I reckon his stocks have risen significantly. Maybe 19-23ish or even a late 1st in a weak draft.

Hickey 25-30ish but he hasn't done himself too many favours with his on field performances this year sadly.
Hickey should have been traded last year when his stock peaked- I was an advocate for that.

If Dunstan has peaked in the last month maybe it's his time? I hope he is slow building ala Ross but is this recent form a purple patch? Could Dunstan + 2nd net Lever?

Get Sav or Webster onto the wing, Acres into the guts to mitigate the loss of a mid. Lever onto the HBF
 

Joffaboy

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Robbo the Essendon supporter has had Dildoro leak to him that Kelly is going to them.....

So he is going to

North
Carlton
Saints
Essendon

Missing anybody
 

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Hickey should have been traded last year when his stock peaked- I was an advocate for that.

If Dunstan has peaked in the last month maybe it's his time? I hope he is slow building ala Ross but is this recent form a purple patch? Could Dunstan + 2nd net Lever?

Get Sav or Webster onto the wing, Acres into the guts to mitigate the loss of a mid. Lever onto the HBF
To trade Dunstan for Lever - well I would like that , but doubt it.
 
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