Get over the first round picks thing, how many games did DalSanto get tagged out. Kosi was an ineffective **** forward in 2004 . Acres got more of the ball this year than Goddard did in 2004. It doesn't make them better, its just where they were picked.
Given their age significant improvement can occur in most of the following, some of them getting close to the magic 50 games.
Gresham.
Billings
Sinclair
Steele
Acres
McKenzie
Longer
Maybe even Dunstan
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McCartin
Freeman
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Great point. The question is about natural talent and development. Along with two top 10 picks, I think many here are deliberately choosing to overlook our scope of improvement from those already on our list. If we go to the draft, we will likely be only behind Brissie as the youngest list in the league and we are pushing finals already. Think about that for a second!
Out of your top list, Billings and Gresham appear to have a similar level of natural ability (and exposed form) as some of those we pulled in from 00-04. Steele too (I think - we will only know after a full pre season but he is criminally underrated). For me, those 3 have shown enough to belong in a discussion with the 04 group re 'potential'. I think even the most pessimistic would concede that.
Yes 00-04 clearly had a higher stockpile of elite talent, but Sincs, Dunstan, Acres, Membery and Longer all still fall clearly into the natural development pile. All are trending upward, and Ross and Newnes have shown that development doesn't just magically stop at 21.
Maybe one of pick 7/8 plays a role next year too. Unlikely both, but I would hope one of these two forces his way in next year. This natural improvement I think keeps us around the mark of 7-10 wins again (noting we have transitioned a lot of older talent out in the last 24 months and not really gone backwards - good luck to Carlton and North doing the same).
Steven & Carlisle are known quality. Those 12 names look like a really good core for many years to come without too many risks of anyone washing out.
Two top 10 picks give us more elite talent and we need to nail at least one of those. But for me your bottom group is where the real discussion (and high level potential payout) is.
I think there are actually four players
already on our list who
could go from contributing nothing to being elite in the next 2-3 years:
McCartin
Goddard
Freeman
White
Unlike those discussed above (who are somewhat known and can be counted upon to a degree) none of these 4 have contributed in any meaningful sense to date. All have the natural talent to be elite.
Along with the two picks we hold, for me these four men probably determine whether this group actually makes the jump to be a top 4 team.