That would be a massive risk in my opinion. For one, who's to say Carlton may not make a decent jump next year? Secondly, you're throwing in a future 2nd rounder which is very valuable. The deal essentially moves us up 4 places in the draft, but we giver up the 7-8 in succession and a future second, and take a risk on Carlton being average next year. Don't like that one sorry.
But Carlton could also shoot up the ladder, leaving the trade disastrous. I'd prefer we don't gamble in this manner. If we are trading for futures, we need to assume the worst like with the Hawks trade.
We are nearing the end of the draft rebuild, I want quality over quantity. Risky of course, yet I don’t see Carlton making huge steps next year and their improvement will be offset by those above improving as well, North, Collingwood, Freo and Hawks they could pass but no more imo.
Talking to a few mates who watch regular u18 footy reckon the top 3 mid / mid hybrids stand out considerably this year
2 of which would take LDU with pick 1. Draft picks are a gamble but this year seems likely you will
Get a 200 gamer with a top 3 pick and maybe a 50/50 strike rate at 7 + 8 plus you have 2 likely top 10 picks in next year strong draft.
Move up to get a gun plus another top 10 pick for next year is worth the risk IMO mainly due to weakness of this years top 10 and the strength of next years. Would ideally like to keep the 2nd rounder.