Don't have time to respond to every post as I have certainly ruffled a few feathers and only have 15 minutes to punch this out then I am off to Thailand for a couple of weeks. This one is the last one I could see, so here goes. A couple of points before I answer your question more directly:
1. I don't think they are necessarily doing a bad job. However, I certainly am not willing to praise them as being anything other than about average or maybe slightly above relative to other list managers. Ameet seems good, Trout has done nothing to warrant the regular praise he gets, and it is too early to call Richo the right man for the job. He had a poor year IMO, however that is for another thread.
2. Based on point 1, I get frustrated when the underlying theme on here is that "we are in good hands". I feel some people assume that we have superior administration to other clubs. I don't see any evidence that points to this being true other than their being a good vibe amongst the group. It is yet to translate to either on-field success, or what I would perceive to be a gun young list poised to rise the ladder. We still have massive holes in our list that won't be fixed easily.
3. I get the 5 year plan was just a target. I for one never expected us to get there. That being said, it seems to also be being dismissed on here as irrelevant pretty damn quick.
4. Obviously nobody expects perfection on drafting night. However, if we nailed just 1-2 more decisions we would be in a completely different position right now. Hence why I am reluctant to label these guys gurus.
I am not going to sit here and claim I had enough foresight to have suggested any of the below pre draft. However, that is also not my job. You did ask for examples, so I am willing to throw a few out there that would have made a massive difference and put us in far greater shape:
2013: Billings was the obvious choice. Can't complain. However, we took Acres and Dunstan over Merrett and Crouch. We were told we would be focusing on foot skills. Merrett was a very big miss, foot skills, foot skills, foot skills...... Dunstan was considered to be a slider before the draft. We probably reached a little in the end. Crouch was a ball magnet in juniors, again a pretty big miss. Either of these 2 over Dunstan or Acres and we are much better team.
2014: McCartin over Petracca. Most clubs pick the absolute best talent with high end picks. We claim that we rated McCartin higher, but I am not convinced. I think Petracca was a flog in his interview and we were too scared to manage it. Almost everybody else rated Petracca the better player.
You couldn't fault the Goddard pick. It was the right call at the time despite not working out. McKenzie was a very poor selection. Not what we need at all. Poor foot skills and a half back flanker AGAIN (more on this later). Miller would have been nice, and exactly what we need.
Lonie was also a poor pick up in the context of Caleb Daniel being on the table. They are both midgets, why not pick the one who can actually play. Again, were is the focus on foot skills. Anybody who watched the champs that year could have told you Daniel had absolutely exquisite foot skills. The bloke literally never misses a target.
2015: Nailed it. However, drafted more back flankers (back to this point in a minute)
2016: Very average. Battle was an obvious pick that late, but regardless looks to be a decent call. Long was a shocker. I know it is early, but he can't even get near it at VFL level. Prior to being drafted didn't prove a thing. Kicked 4 Joe the Goose calls in junk time in a VFL grand final. Big deal. Bolton a big miss considering he is exactly what we need.
So to summarise, some hits and misses. To be fair our trading has been far more successful than drafting. Hence why I am not overly confident they will "nail it" this year at the draft.
It is important to note that we have also constructed a very unbalanced list, and this should be overlaid to the above decisions. Midfielders are the most important ingredient to winning a flag and we seem to be either allergic to drafting them or we refuse to try and legitimately convert back flankers to on-ballers. In the last 6 years we have bought in Roberton, White, Rice, Savage, Newnes, Webster, McKenzie and we want to play all of them on the back flank FFS. Furthermore, we moved Joey back there and still have Gilbert playing down back. WTF is the point?
Meanwhile we have only really bought in Dunstan, Steele, Freeman & Stevens as pure mids in that time. That is way out of whack. Additionally, far too inside. Also, why have some of these blokes not been able to transition to a wing for example? Other clubs seem to be able to do this, but have struggled to make it work. Is it development or poor drafting? I don't know the answer but it is a big problem.
So to summarise, I don't think our drafting is worse than other clubs, but I certainly would not rate it better than others either. Outside Gresham, we have not really nailed anybody else at the draft. Just 1 of the above would have made a big difference. Furthermore we have built a slow unbalanced list with too many decent players vying for the same position.
I would hardly call the rebuild a raging success just because we were worse 3 years ago. We have been out of finals for a while now, and our weakest area is the most important (e.g. a strong midfield). It has to be rectified.
I really think this year is massive. We need 2 midfielders and we need at least 1 but hopefully 2 to be a big factor within 2-3 years. Additionally, we have to do something about the half back problem. If we rate White as much as we say we do, I would support trading one of Newnes or Webster if we get a reasonable deal. These guys are going to get kept out by players like Gilbo and we are losing precious development opportunity.
Anyways, got to fly. Let's all hope I am a big idiot and there is nothing to worry about whatsover and it all clicks for our young blokes next year and I have massive egg on my face