Prediction 2017 Trade rumour accuracy thread.

[Cleric]

Its good to keep a track of how accurate these rumours are when they are put forward.
Im not talking about stories of a club putting forward an offer, but stories where well known journos say that player X will leave at the end of the year, to either a club or state.

So as it stands these are the ones that are not going away.

- Schache will leave Brisbane at the end of the year back to Victoria.

- Gov to go back to WA.

- Kelly to go back to Vic. Was just a club making an offer but apparently he bought a house back in Melbourne.

- Ablett to go back to Geelong next year. Hutchies best mate is Abletts manager, and Hutchie was the first person to put forward Buddy going to Sydney when everyone else said GWS. Hutchie has said Ablett will be at Geelong.

- Jake Lever to go back to Melbourne.

- Hopper to leave GWS and move to a Vic club (Geelong favoured)

- Dustin Martin to leave Richmond (Sydney the rumoured club)


So these are the ones so far. Will add to them as the year goes along and then we can see what type of accuracy there is.

 

[marty36]

Prefered last years rumours how we were getting Rockliff and Gibbs and our midfield would be as strong as

 

[Cleric]

Prefered last years rumours how we were getting Rockliff and Gibbs and our midfield would be as strong as

Well I think we dogged a bullet with not getting Cameron. As if we need to pay a mill a year for another forward.

 

[Peter Doherty]

Pittard moving back to Victoria.

 

[Samcro24]

Jake Lever to go to Victoria. Has lucrative offers on the table and apparently bought a house in Melbourne.

 

[GreyCrow]

There is one Trade Leaks account that is spot on

 

[GreyCrow]

Jake Lever to go to Victoria. Has lucrative offers on the table and apparently bought a house in Melbourne.

Moving in with a girl called Mardi?

 

[GreyCrow]

- Ablett to go back to Geelong next year. Hutchies best mate is Abletts manager, and Hutchie was the first person to put forward Buddy going to Sydney when everyone else said GWS. Hutchie has said Ablett will be at Geelong.

I think Ablett at Geelong is a given. What Hutchy alluded to on last nights Footy Classified was that Geelong will get him for nothing.

Ablett to Geelong , Gold Coast to receive Geelongs draft position 6/7 (which they wont use) Geelong to pay Abletts remaining year over 2 years ie $1million 2018 conract for 2 x $500,000 finishing end of 2019. The side comment was ' and so they should'

 

[dogs105]

I think Ablett at Geelong is a given. What Hutchy alluded to on last nights Footy Classified was that Geelong will get him for nothing.

Ablett to Geelong , Gold Coast to receive Geelongs draft position 6/7 (which they wont use) Geelong to pay Abletts remaining year over 2 years ie $1million 2018 conract for 2 x $500,000 finishing end of 2019. The side comment was ' and so they should'

I hope that Geelong pay Danger's salary when he's here in 2020

 

[Elite Crow]

Its good to keep a track of how accurate these rumours are when they are put forward.
Im not talking about stories of a club putting forward an offer, but stories where well known journos say that player X will leave at the end of the year, to either a club or state.

So as it stands these are the ones that are not going away.

- Schache will leave Brisbane at the end of the year back to Victoria.

- Gov to go back to WA.

- Kelly to go back to Vic. Was just a club making an offer but apparently he bought a house back in Melbourne.

- Ablett to go back to Geelong next year. Hutchies best mate is Abletts manager, and Hutchie was the first person to put forward Buddy going to Sydney when everyone else said GWS. Hutchie has said Ablett will be at Geelong.

So these are the ones so far. Will add to them as the year goes along and then we can see what type of accuracy there is.

As for Hutchie, he is going hard with the Sam Mitchell trade setting the precedent and the Cats will get Ablett for a 6th rd pick.

Since when have trade precedents been set in the AFL?

Obviously he is the vessel for Pickering to make the trade go through smoothly which is pretty unprofessional.

 

[Danger in Texas]

Johannisen to WA?

 

[Samcro24]

Fyfe to St Kilda, done deal.

 

[Donkey Magoo]

As for Hutchie, he is going hard with the Sam Mitchell trade setting the precedent and the Cats will get Ablett for a 6th rd pick.

Since when have trade precedents been set in the AFL?

Obviously he is the vessel for Pickering to make the trade go through smoothly which is pretty unprofessional.

Well the catalyst for that precedent was that Hawthorn wanted to move Mitchel. Completely different situation. I'm usually not onboard with the pro victorian bias but when it comes to trade time they are off the chain.
Summary Narratives
Danger to Geelong (for family) "The Crows shouldn't fight to hard and let him go"
Gibbs to Adelaide (for family) "The Crows need to pay here, he has a contract, blues should play hardball"
Buddy to Sydney (for money) "We need to look at the COLA, can't just buy players"
Trealor to Collingwood (for money) "Kid looking for a start in the football capitol"
I could go on. This is the bit that drives me nuts. Unlike a lot of the other s**t, it also has real world implications this actually affects trade negotiations.

 

[Kickin Goals]

$1.6 Billion for Dusty to Bombers!

Every decent player available to The Kangaroos for a Mill a year.

 

[Heafy83]

I think Ablett at Geelong is a given. What Hutchy alluded to on last nights Footy Classified was that Geelong will get him for nothing.

Ablett to Geelong , Gold Coast to receive Geelongs draft position 6/7 (which they wont use) Geelong to pay Abletts remaining year over 2 years ie $1million 2018 conract for 2 x $500,000 finishing end of 2019. The side comment was ' and so they should'

And then watch the Vic media pat Gold Coast on the back for letting poor old Gazza go home and then continue to berate us for trying to get Gibbs for a fair deal.

 

[Vooligan]

Decent idea for a thread. It would be good to see the OP updated with genuine rumours, and outcomes as they happen.

Jake Lever to go to Victoria. Has lucrative offers on the table and apparently bought a house in Melbourne.

Speaking of "genuine rumours" anything originating from FiveAA does not count as "genuine"

 

[Heafy83]

I think Ablett at Geelong is a given. What Hutchy alluded to on last nights Footy Classified was that Geelong will get him for nothing.

Ablett to Geelong , Gold Coast to receive Geelongs draft position 6/7 (which they wont use) Geelong to pay Abletts remaining year over 2 years ie $1million 2018 conract for 2 x $500,000 finishing end of 2019. The side comment was ' and so they should'

To add to my other Ablett comments. If GC don't aim to get a 1st or 2nd round pick out of the Cats for Ablett given he is in contract then they might as well pack up their bags and hand their AFL license back now.

Ablett going to Cats brings them a lot closer to a flag. You can't just hand your opposition a player that will do that. You need to make them pay. Even though GC are not in contention now they need something back that will benefit them and hurt the Cats when they do contend. Make the Cats give up future growth for the chance at a flag now.

 

[baldandbroke]

To add to my other Ablett comments. If GC don't aim to get a 1st or 2nd round pick out of the Cats for Ablett given he is in contract then they might as well pack up their bags and hand their AFL license back now.

Ablett going to Cats brings them a lot closer to a flag. You can't just hand your opposition a player that will do that. You need to make them pay. Even though GC are not in contention now they need something back that will benefit them and hurt the Cats when they do contend. Make the Cats give up future growth for the chance at a flag now.

I've had this conversation with Geelong supporters for a few months.

Apparently he is not worth anything at the trade table. The possible GOAT, the player ranked in the top 10 players in the league currently, that his club are not trying to move on.

If Gold Coast cannot get a player they need, then let him retire or play out his last CONTRACTED year at the Suns.

Try and compare this to Gibbs, you'll get told Gibbs has plenty of footy left him in - GAJ does not. Geelong are just looking to give him a spot on their list and paying him for nothing more than sentiment

 

[Pugsley]

Silly season will start in preseason next year.

 

[huludicidal]

The ones I believe at this point are:

Josh Kelly specifically to North Melbourne due largely to the family connection with the club (old man played for them)

M McGovern to WA

Lever to remain a Crow

Pittard to Vic

Schache to Vic

Rockliff to remain a Lion

Devon Smith to Vic

Ablett to the Cats

Billings to remain a Saint

Scharenberg to remain a Pie

Sam Reid to Vic (FA)

Zak Jones to remain a Swan


Personally I have no read on the situations with Dusty, Fyfe, Hopper or Gibbs. Just as likely to stay as they are to go I feel. Would love to jag Dusty, Fyfe or Hopper, but can't see it happening. Gibbs will either play for us or Carlton in 2018, but his price has dropped and I don't think Carlton will accept what we offer (at least initially). Hard to tell how that all plays out. Maybe we've moved on. Maybe Bryce has moved on.

I bloody hope I'm wrong about Gov. The injury has made the situation even harder to read and probably delayed talks a fair bit too.

Just feels to me like we're doing everything we can to bring in a midfielder after the Gibbs debacle, and that, combined with the awful contract we handed Jenkins (I'm not a huge fan of the reported deal we handed B Crouch either), and the hugely competitive offers out there for both Lever and Gov, means we are probably not able to keep both unless they BOTH accept significant unders.

I'm confident Lever will do this. His situation feels exactly the same to me as Sloane and Lynch in recent times.

Gov? Haven't heard any of the right noises coming out of his camp which concerns me. If he does leave, we need to fully maximise the return through effectively selling the club environment and lifestyle to at least one big name mid, and subsequent contract offers and creative trading. As I said, would love to be wrong as I view him as a vital and unique cog in our premiership assault. There's not really another player with his combination of height, pace, agility, vertical leap, tackling ability and clean hands in the marking contest in the league if you really stop and think about it.

 

[Cleric]

Pittard moving back to Victoria.

I think there is a good chance he will go but there hasnt been anything strong.

 

[Heafy83]

I've had this conversation with Geelong supporters for a few months.

Apparently he is not worth anything at the trade table. The possible GOAT, the player ranked in the top 10 players in the league currently, that his club are not trying to move on.

If Gold Coast cannot get a player they need, then let him retire or play out his last CONTRACTED year at the Suns.

Try and compare this to Gibbs, you'll get told Gibbs has plenty of footy left him in - GAJ does not. Geelong are just looking to give him a spot on their list and paying him for nothing more than sentiment

He is still a brilliant footballer and at the Cats will not have to carry the load he does at GC. He and Danger can switch from forward to mid all game and become a really dangerous duo. Like I said Ablett to the Cats gets then top 2 in 2018 as long as everyone stays fit and healthy etc. He just turned 33 and probably has another 2-3 years in him at worst. He is not a Sam Mitchell. Mitchell is still a very good footballer but can't change games and doesn't get the Eagles that much closer to a flag. Abletts worth to the suns is almost Nil now but to the Cats he is worth a solid chance at a flag.

 

[Scorpus]

Dustin Martin to Essendon for $1.6m per year, among other offers. Wasn't North also offering a million?

 

[footy4ever]

Dusty Martin to AFC - for $1.2mill p.a. and a free gift voucher to Laser Tattoo Removal Parlour, and to Johnny the Barber's Barbershop for Hair With Special Needs.

 

[Pugsley]

Dusty Martin to AFC - for $1.2mill p.a. and a free gift voucher to Laser Tattoo Removal Parlour, and to Johnny the Barber's Barbershop for Hair With Special Needs.

You forgot free meals and chopsticks in the Central Market Food Court.