List Mgmt. 2017 - Trading and Free Agency

[Docker82]

Top 5 picks are priceless. I think picks between 15 and 25 are over rated.

Sure 10-20 picks later there's a huge difference but one or two picks later you'd still get who you want half the time. The value of draft picks declines pretty slowly compared to what people seem to think IMO - quickly enough that it'll impact 10-20 picks later but not quickly enough that it's worth tanking to get 2-3 picks lower. Honestly the value of tanking declined massively after the removal of automatic priority picks. The extra draft pick given to you by AFL house was worth it - getting a pick two spots earlier isn't.


Recruiters will have other decisions to make as well. McGovern will make things very interesting if it happens (I'd start by offering our 2018 2nd rounder but pretty certain they'd get knocked back) and there's potential for McCarthy type trades downgrading picks to get extra value later in the draft if the value is there for us.

 

[Redgum]

McGovern isn't exactly setting the world on fire by the number of goals he is kicking ,he is only about the same size and build of Kersten. We need a bigger forward because Kersten, McGovern and McCarthy are much the same size. McGovern would be a huge improvement on Kersten but we really need a much taller proven goal kicking forward, unfortunately Hogan appears to have gone backwards.

 

[MadDocker]

Mitch McGovern isn't a power forward. We'd be in a similar position having him in the side. Need someone like Tabs/Ape size.

 

[MadDocker]

unfortunately Hogan appears to have gone backwards.

He lost his Dad and had cancer in his nuts. Probably can forgive him a decline in output this year...

 

[Docker82]

Mitch McGovern isn't a power forward. We'd be in a similar position having him in the side. Need someone like Tabs/Ape size.

I don't disagree but who in the draft is Tabs/Ape size that looks like they're worth a top 5-7 pick? I don't see anyone other Hayes who's apparently the biggest flight risk going around.

 

[Scham]

Gee if I was a forward I know which team I would be choosing.

I assume you don't mean the one that delivers the ball into the forward line over the leading players head or directly to their opponent.

 

[MadDocker]

I don't disagree but who in the draft is Tabs/Ape size that looks like they're worth a top 5-7 pick? I don't see anyone other Hayes who's apparently the biggest flight risk going around.

Sorry, I only offer problems, not solutions.

 

[FreoMonocle]

Draft picks are not as important as how you use them anyway. We don't look at Lachie Neale and go "he was taken with pick 50+ - why'd we bother" do we. A higher draft pick means a higher chance of a good player but I'm not sure one or two spots are actually going to make that much of a difference.

Buddy pick #5
Taylor Walker with a NSW Scholarship (basically, they only had to spend their last draft pick)
Tom Lynch - messy. Pick #11, but only 4 other clubs had a pick before he was chosen, could be seen as an equal 5th pick.
Josh Kennedy Pick #4
Tom Hawkins Father/Son rule
Jack Riewoldt #13
Nick Riewodlt #1
Tom Boyd #1
Jesse Hogan #2 (mini draft)

We have exceptional midfielders, we don't have an exceptional power forward. With a chance of the best power forward in the draft and being set for the next 10-13 years, it should be our aim. But we have a lot of list to turn over and no 2nd pick, I can see why the recruiters would trade down - but we can get volumes of picks in the next few years, we probably won't get access to a drafts best power forward again for many years.

 

[ydraw]

I don't disagree but who in the draft is Tabs/Ape size that looks like they're worth a top 5-7 pick? I don't see anyone other Hayes who's apparently the biggest flight risk going around.

McGovern isn't in the draft.

Casboult and Sam Reid are Tabs/Apeness size and both free agents this year.

 

[Bender571]

I assume there is a reason why MMcGov would come to Freo over playing with his Brother at westcoast, can anyone enlighten me?

He hates West Coast, wouldn't support them even when Jeremy was playing for them

40 seconds in

Realistically though he'll probably do whatever is best for his career.

 

[george2]

I think the last couple of weeks have definitely showed we need to bring in a KPF we should have a pick early enough to get our hands on someone like Brander who then we can start to build a forward line around. Next year if we could get our hands on Ian Hill and also bring in Jason Carter, the development kid, we have brought in a KPF one year and then a pacey mid/defender in Carter and a quick crumbing forward/mid.

 

[go_the_dockers]

You’re out of contract at the end of the year, aren’t you?

Yeah, I’m out of contract at the end of the season so another goal for me is getting another contract. I haven’t begun those negotiations yet but hopefully it will take care of itself. It’s one of those things that won’t faze me too much, and obviously Jake Lever and Mitch McGovern are going through some tough times with theirs, but for me it’ll take care of itself eventually.

When the conversations do eventuate, how involved will you be? Or do you leave it up to your manager?

I’ll certainly stay involved and stay engaged. I’m not a 21-year-old that has his whole career ahead of him, I’m 25, so I need to set myself up for the future. I’ll be communicating that with my manager, and I want to play somewhere where I’ll be in the best 22 each week, I don’t want to wait around any longer. Or wait for an injury to get a crack.

Sounds like he'll move for a big offer.

 

[salim malik]

So thats Yarran, Dawson, Griff, Clark and now Balic to replace. You wouldn't think that there would be to many more out the door.

 

[Joao]

So thats Yarran, Dawson, Griff, Clark and now Balic to replace. You wouldn't think that there would be to many more out the door.

Balic

Those and maybe one or more of Suban, Sherro, Crozier, Langdon, Tucker (ie out of contract Vic boys). Johnson possibly otherwise how do we get Pearce, Hamling and Logue on the field?

Out of all the above it would really like to see us keep Crozier, Langdon and Tucker. Can live with Johnno staying on as long as we have a plan to play the youngsters in some capacity (ie stick Pearce/Logue forward).

 

[salim malik]

Balic

Those and maybe one or more of Suban, Sherro, Crozier, Langdon, Tucker (ie out of contract Vic boys). Johnson possibly otherwise how do we get Pearce, Hamling and Logue on the field?

Out of all the above it would really like to see us keep Crozier, Langdon and Tucker. Can live with Johnno staying on as long as we have a plan to play the youngsters in some capacity (ie stick Pearce/Logue forward).

Hard work to replace 5 from the draft without a second pick and none of the 5 have any currency. Going to be an interesting draft period.

 

[Clems Knee]

So thats Yarran, Dawson, Griff, Clark and now Balic to replace. You wouldn't think that there would be to many more out the door.

Are you sure about Clarke?
If we are to upgrade two or three Rookie List players at the end of the year, we will still need to drop a couple more main list players as well.

 

[Joao]

Hard work to replace 5 from the draft without a second pick and none of the 5 have any currency. Going to be an interesting draft period.

Think you would get something for Croz, Sherro, Langdon and Tucker. Sure, it wouldn't be a lot (maybe Tucker can get you pick 25) but even pick 40 is better than nothing. I would rather keep them all (yes even Sherro). They are all worth more to us than we would get for them. Think at least 1 or 2 will become good or better players.

Suban I think needs a change. Reinvigorate his career.

 

[go_the_dockers]

So thats Yarran, Dawson, Griff, Clark and now Balic to replace. You wouldn't think that there would be to many more out the door.

Suban, Ibbotson, Ballas plus any of Sheridan, Crozier, Tucker, Taberner, Collins and Langdon who don't re-sign.

I can't see less than 8 players leaving.

 

[Joao]

Draft picks are not as important as how you use them anyway. We don't look at Lachie Neale and go "he was taken with pick 50+ - why'd we bother" do we. A higher draft pick means a higher chance of a good player but I'm not sure one or two spots are actually going to make that much of a difference. That and I think these KPPs in this draft are being a touch overrated simply because we need them. Could actually be better off swapping first round picks for McGovern as that's about where a lot of the KPPs we are talking about are going to go. I'm not sure the gap between say Allen/Naughton and the Victorian guys is actually as high as is being made out either.
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There is some pretty good analysis about the likelihood of getting a 100/200 gamer out of each section of the draft. Top 10 and top 5 are significantly more likely than any other time in the draft.

MGov is not showing enough IMO to warrant giving up a top 5 pick. I agree we probably get carried away (on here) with anybody over 193cm (myself included) which makes Brander or Hayes look better than they are. If that is the case, I think the correct option is to take the best talent at pick 5/6/7 - Fogarty/Cerra whoever.

 

[jinxd]

There is some pretty good analysis about the likelihood of getting a 100/200 gamer out of each section of the draft. Top 10 and top 5 are significantly more likely than any other time in the draft.

MGov is not showing enough IMO to warrant giving up a top 5 pick. I agree we probably get carried away (on here) with anybody over 193cm (myself included) which makes Brander or Hayes look better than they are. If that is the case, I think the correct option is to take the best talent at pick 5/6/7 - Fogarty/Cerra whoever.

Personally I don't rate Fogarty or Brander... Would much prefer Luke Davies-Uniacke. Brander's kicking looks a bit dodgy, IMO.

 

[salim malik]

Are you sure about Clarke?
If we are to upgrade two or three Rookie List players at the end of the year, we will still need to drop a couple more main list players as well.

No obviously not sure on Clark but surely the odds are against him getting a contract. I was mentioning that we have not got a lot of currency in our delists, its going to mean going deep into the draft.

 

[Tbonefreo]

Balic for Angus brayshaw

 

[MadDocker]

Balic wouldn't get us an angus steak. 100% we get nothing for him if he goes at the end of the year.

 

[Deveraux]

He hates West Coast, wouldn't support them even when Jeremy was playing for them

40 seconds in

Realistically though he'll probably do whatever is best for his career.

Wow Awesome.. didn't realise any of that. I'd say we're in the box seat then.

 

[scon]

I'll remain optimistic about Balic and Zaarke until I hear the opposite, but the next two drafts are pivotal to our rebuild being a success and us being well placed to challenge.
The recruiters need to earn their money and they'll know it.