Totally disagree. I think we're a fit Fyfe/Bennell/Sandilands/Pearce away from being contenders. With all hands on deck we have an elite midfield and a very good backline. Sure we're lacking a gun forward, but if Darcy, Taberner or Apeness can have a big summer and provide a contest for our small forwards then we'll be hard to beat.
Well I hope you are right...I tend to be a bit pessimistic about this stuff.
It is a bit of a self fulfilling prophecy though. Players taken in the first round are more likely to be successful. I don't have the stats, but given you are looking for 10 midfielders per side they are not all going to come from the top 20, and there are a heap more available. There is usually only 2 genuine KPFs in each team, and typically only 1 of them is good, the other serviceable. Even for us our best KPF was taken top 20, but McCarthy doesn't really deserve to be in the team. Gunston, Tippet, Reid, Hooker all taken outside the top 20. I suspect there may only be half a dozen KPFs available each draft.
The reason it is "self-fulfilling" is because every team knows if there is a highly talented KPF available he will be taken earlier so grab him when you can. Pretty simple really, they are the highest valued and therefor get taken early.
I am not really sure what you are arguing here? Are you saying the players on the list below from ydraw are of similar standard to the top 20 picks that are also KPF? If so I would strongly disagree.
If we want a KPF and a good one is available we will have to take it with our first pick. If we don't someone will. If he slides to our second pick (wherever that ends up) then I think it is safe to assume that 18 clubs didn't think he was going to be a gun KPF.
Player (draft position) - key forwards currently playing AFL taken after pick 20 (criteria is playing mostly in forward line and averaging over 1.0 contested mark per game).
Rory Lobb (29).
Michael Close (30)
Levi Casboult (89)
Cale Hooker (54)
Andy Otten (27)
Josh Jenkins (rookie)
Mitch McGover (43)
Tom McDonald (53)
Matt Taberner (rookie)
Brennan Cox (41)
Jack Darling (26)
Drew Petrie (29)
James Sicily (56)
Tim O'Brien (28)
Ben Brown (47)
Majak Daw (rookie)
Jarrod Waite (46)
Mason Cox (rookie)
Jackson Trengove (22)
Tim Mebrey (46)
Sam Reid (38)
Kurt Tippett (32)
There's actually quite a lot, which seems to disprove the "can't get a key forward with a low pick" myth. I'm sure there are a lot more who didn't go anywhere, but it goes to show that you can get a good key forward with a low pick if you are lucky enough. Almost every team has at least 1 key forward who was a late pick currently playing for them.
I don't think anyone was arguing you can't get a KPF outside the top 20. The argument is if you want a *good* one, you will almost certainly be taking him in the top 20 (probably top 5 or 10).
Of your list, very few are proven, sustained high performance KPFs. Many aren't even 190cm+ and play as the 2nd, 3rd or 4th forward. Waite is father/son and IMO the next best is Petrie (who actually went #23) or Brown. They are both good players and we would probably do well with them at CHF and FF. The rest are either not actual KPF or don't actually kick a lot of goals. At least 1 is a genuine spud (Daw). The odds of picking the Petrie or Brown again are far outweighed by the likelihood of picking Trengove or Otten.
You are a 100% right we could get two 195cm+ blokes to stand at CHF and FF, but if they are not that good then what is the point?
I stand by my original assertion. A
quality KPF is going to cost us pick 10 or more. If you are happy with us rolling out mediocre KPF in a future challenging side then I think trading out pick ~5 is right up your alley.