List Mgmt. 2017 - Trading and Free Agency

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tonygeeks

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Player (draft position) - key forwards currently playing AFL taken after pick 20 (criteria is playing mostly in forward line and averaging over 1.0 contested mark per game).

Rory Lobb (29).
Michael Close (30)
Levi Casboult (89)
Cale Hooker (54)
Andy Otten (27)
Josh Jenkins (rookie)
Mitch McGover (43)
Tom McDonald (53)
Matt Taberner (rookie)
Brennan Cox (41)
Jack Darling (26)
Drew Petrie (29)
James Sicily (56)
Tim O'Brien (28)
Ben Brown (47)
Majak Daw (rookie)
Jarrod Waite (46)
Mason Cox (rookie)
Jackson Trengove (22)
Tim Mebrey (46)
Sam Reid (38)
Kurt Tippett (32)


There's actually quite a lot, which seems to disprove the "can't get a key forward with a low pick" myth. I'm sure there are a lot more who didn't go anywhere, but it goes to show that you can get a good key forward with a low pick if you are lucky enough. Almost every team has at least 1 key forward who was a late pick currently playing for them.
There are only 2 genuine #1 forwards out of the lot of them the rest are sidekicks or worse


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tonygeeks

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There are actually 3 IMO, Brown, Waite(f/s) and Petrie. So 2 from the normal draft.
Yeah I was just going off that list he had there
Petrie always been a # 1.5 forward for mine but in saying that if we could snag a 19 year old version of Petrie this year in the draft we are on our way


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FreoMonocle

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Would like to see the unsuccessful top 15 KPFs added to your list, as well as the successful later picks.
The top of my head wasn't working, so a quick look at various lists of top 10 forwards (which includes smalls etc) and I can't see any other monster forwards that are elites to add. Barring a smile from the footy gods, when it comes to the best KPF's you need the best picks.

The number of 195cm plus people out there is a small pool of people, with so few available it is chalk and cheese between being a gifted monster and just being a monster. The few monster forwards that are talented are readily identified and get taken early as a consequence.
 

scon

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Perhaps he could have primed the players better so they were more composed in the first quarter.
Coaches lay parameters but can't control what happens inside the players' heads'.I'll reread Pav's description from Purple Heart but from memory he agreed they spooked themselves.
Hawthorn were also the finals giants of the day.
 

theGav56

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The reason it is "self-fulfilling" is because every team knows if there is a highly talented KPF available he will be taken earlier so grab him when you can. Pretty simple really, they are the highest valued and therefor get taken early.

I am not really sure what you are arguing here? Are you saying the players on the list below from ydraw are of similar standard to the top 20 picks that are also KPF? If so I would strongly disagree.

If we want a KPF and a good one is available we will have to take it with our first pick. If we don't someone will. If he slides to our second pick (wherever that ends up) then I think it is safe to assume that 18 clubs didn't think he was going to be a gun KPF.


I don't think anyone was arguing you can't get a KPF outside the top 20. The argument is if you want a *good* one, you will almost certainly be taking him in the top 20 (probably top 5 or 10).

Of your list, very few are proven, sustained high performance KPFs. Many aren't even 190cm+ and play as the 2nd, 3rd or 4th forward. Waite is father/son and IMO the next best is Petrie (who actually went #23) or Brown. They are both good players and we would probably do well with them at CHF and FF. The rest are either not actual KPF or don't actually kick a lot of goals. At least 1 is a genuine spud (Daw). The odds of picking the Petrie or Brown again are far outweighed by the likelihood of picking Trengove or Otten.

You are a 100% right we could get two 195cm+ blokes to stand at CHF and FF, but if they are not that good then what is the point?

I stand by my original assertion. A quality KPF is going to cost us pick 10 or more. If you are happy with us rolling out mediocre KPF in a future challenging side then I think trading out pick ~5 is right up your alley.
Firstly, I'm not arguing, just discussing. I am saying that it is a truism that the best talent is going to go in the early picks. But I also don't think that equates to being the best option. Rucks are rarely taken top 10 now because it doesn't provide the best value for various reasons.

I think Brander is probably the highest rated KPF in this draft, but unless we are really confident that he will make it in that role, there may be better value. Fogarty has far less risk factor and just as much upside for me. Or trade the pick and up with McGovern and Adelaide's first round.
 

Joao

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Firstly, I'm not arguing, just discussing. I am saying that it is a truism that the best talent is going to go in the early picks. But I also don't think that equates to being the best option. Rucks are rarely taken top 10 now because it doesn't provide the best value for various reasons.

I think Brander is probably the highest rated KPF in this draft, but unless we are really confident that he will make it in that role, there may be better value. Fogarty has far less risk factor and just as much upside for me. Or trade the pick and up with McGovern and Adelaide's first round.
Seems like we are not really arguing then!

I guess our only disagreement is whether we need a top 10 KPF. I think we do, but I can definitely understand if you don't think we do.
 

couldhavebeen

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Isn't it better for Strnadica's development that he gets full games in the ruck and forward?
Stnadica has played in the reserves as their number one ruckman . He has performed very well and has very good fitness and ability .As a result the reserves have won their last 2 games on the back of his ruck work . He was recruited as a Forward /ruck and now RTB and the match committee need to play him in the Peel league team instead of Dawson who is being used as a tall forward in the Peel league team. Luke was recruited as the second ruck /forward and that is the role they should have him playing in the Freo team next year . He reads the play extremely well and has JK like leading patterns . He is a very good mark and makes good decisions with the ball in hand . Its time he played with the guys that he will play with in the league team .
 

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freoextra

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Stnadica has played in the reserves as their number one ruckman . He has performed very well and has very good fitness and ability .As a result the reserves have won their last 2 games on the back of his ruck work . He was recruited as a Forward /ruck and now RTB and the match committee need to play him in the Peel league team instead of Dawson who is being used as a tall forward in the Peel league team. Luke was recruited as the second ruck /forward and that is the role they should have him playing in the Freo team next year . He reads the play extremely well and has JK like leading patterns . He is a very good mark and makes good decisions with the ball in hand . Its time he played with the guys that he will play with in the league team .
I have no doubt we will keep him for next year.

It makes sense to have him playing ahead of Griff and Dawson who have no future at the club but I am not at all surprised that we won't drop long term servants of the club to the reserves.

Strada's time to shine is coming, it just happens to be next year due to circumstances. We know we have to put extra time into the talls.
 

wayToGo_

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I'm somewhat in the middle with this debate about talls. I think we have plenty of tall options down back with Hamling, APearce, Cox, Collins, and Logue (who can play as a KPD). Can any of these guys play a key role forward long term? I'm not so sure.

Up forward we have McCarthy and Kersten who both play better as supporting acts. And then we have a long list of ruck/fwd options. I think any of Apeness, Taberner, Strnadica, APearce could potentially play a fwd/ruck role but I don't personally see any of them as our primary key forward and I'd be hesitant to play two of them in our forward line together. Then we have Cox and Uebergang where I still think Cox will end up a defender and Ueber is a long shot to even make it.

I think we are just one tall short from having the right mix for the moment. But unfortunately the tall we are missing is the most critical one of the lot, being a primary key forward that can draw the best defender and still impact in the air and on the ground every game of the year. I don't think we have any suitable candidates on our list for that role yet. As much as we may lure one through free agency either this year or in the coming years, a gun primary target is every bit as important as a core midfielder and we simply have to invest in one via a decent pick in the draft when we get an opportunity. I didn't mind what we did with downgrading our first pick last year but I think it would be silly to do it again this year - we need quality not quantity now (especially with natural forwards). If we want to trade in any players our 1st pick should be off limits to do so imo.
 

Unique Name

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Thread starter #3,266
So ..... who is the player you want us to draft and become our top line key forward? Someone worthy of top 5 selection.

Criteria;
195cm plus
Marking Beast
Goal kicker, especially from outside 50
Low "go home" factor
Oscar Allen - 3 out of 4 ain't bad.

3cm's too short.
 
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Scham

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So ..... who is the player you want us to draft and become our top line key forward? Someone worthy of top 5 selection.

Criteria;
195cm plus
Marking Beast
Goal kicker, especially from outside 50
Low "go home" factor
None of us know about the go home factor but Brander ticks 2 of the other 3 boxes. I'm not sure if he's top 5 worthy though. It'll be interesting if the scouts do, highly doubtful imo. Having said that he's not far off and will probably go a little earlier than expected due to the lack of quality talls. Prob 7 - 12???
 
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I'm somewhat in the middle with this debate about talls. I think we have plenty of tall options down back with Hamling, APearce, Cox, Collins, and Logue (who can play as a KPD). Can any of these guys play a key role forward long term? I'm not so sure.

Up forward we have McCarthy and Kersten who both play better as supporting acts. And then we have a long list of ruck/fwd options. I think any of Apeness, Taberner, Strnadica, APearce could potentially play a fwd/ruck role but I don't personally see any of them as our primary key forward and I'd be hesitant to play two of them in our forward line together. Then we have Cox and Uebergang where I still think Cox will end up a defender and Ueber is a long shot to even make it.

I think we are just one tall short from having the right mix for the moment. But unfortunately the tall we are missing is the most critical one of the lot, being a primary key forward that can draw the best defender and still impact in the air and on the ground every game of the year. I don't think we have any suitable candidates on our list for that role yet. As much as we may lure one through free agency either this year or in the coming years, a gun primary target is every bit as important as a core midfielder and we simply have to invest in one via a decent pick in the draft when we get an opportunity. I didn't mind what we did with downgrading our first pick last year but I think it would be silly to do it again this year - we need quality not quantity now (especially with natural forwards). If we want to trade in any players our 1st pick should be off limits to do so imo.
I also think we've got plenty of talls. We went McCarthy, Hamling, Kersten, Logue, Darcy, Cox and Strnadica for height last year, with Ryan being our only small. We have 0 depth in the smalls once you get past the main names.

Yes, we do still need anothrr KPF in a perfect world, but we still need to address other flaws in our list. Our only small recruit was a mature age half back at pick 50 odd in the draft.

People /wrists when we have guys like Sheridan/Suban/Spurr/Sutcliffe/Kersten spudding it up, but don't want to recruit midfielders to push them out of the 22 and off the list.

After Hill and Mundy, the only first round smalls on our list are Sheridan, Weller and Tucker.

Let that sink in for a little bit.

By all means, go and draft a sparkling, brand new KPF. I just hope you enjoy seeing guys like like Spurr, Sheridan, Sutcliffe et al. delivering it to them.
 

Big Animal

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I also think we've got plenty of talls. We went McCarthy, Hamling, Kersten, Logue, Darcy, Cox and Strnadica for height last year, with Ryan being our only small. We have 0 depth in the smalls once you get past the main names.

Yes, we do still need anothrr KPF in a perfect world, but we still need to address other flaws in our list. Our only small recruit was a mature age half back at pick 50 odd in the draft.

People /wrists when we have guys like Sheridan/Suban/Spurr/Sutcliffe/Kersten spudding it up, but don't want to recruit midfielders to push them out of the 22 and off the list.

After Hill and Mundy, the only first round smalls on our list are Sheridan, Weller and Tucker.

Let that sink in for a little bit.

By all means, go and draft a sparkling, brand new KPF. I just hope you enjoy seeing guys like like Spurr, Sheridan, Sutcliffe et al. delivering it to them.
I was hoping this year they let us have more than 1 pick :$
 

maccamk

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What are Luke Strnadicas weakenesses or areas he needs to develop?

Would love to see his combine results compared to Ben brown as they are similar heights
 

jerms

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You mean like a 2nd round draft pick? Bad luck, we've already used that on drafting a tall.

But yeah, plenty of A grade smalls in the 3rd - 7th rounds I'm sure.
Lachie Neale says hi. Another one of him will be just fine.

 
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wayToGo_

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I also think we've got plenty of talls. We went McCarthy, Hamling, Kersten, Logue, Darcy, Cox and Strnadica for height last year, with Ryan being our only small. We have 0 depth in the smalls once you get past the main names.

Yes, we do still need anothrr KPF in a perfect world, but we still need to address other flaws in our list. Our only small recruit was a mature age half back at pick 50 odd in the draft.

People /wrists when we have guys like Sheridan/Suban/Spurr/Sutcliffe/Kersten spudding it up, but don't want to recruit midfielders to push them out of the 22 and off the list.

After Hill and Mundy, the only first round smalls on our list are Sheridan, Weller and Tucker.

Let that sink in for a little bit.

By all means, go and draft a sparkling, brand new KPF. I just hope you enjoy seeing guys like like Spurr, Sheridan, Sutcliffe et al. delivering it to them.
Agree with most of this, especially needing more quality smalls. But I also think we have some guys on our list who are capable of shifting in to the midfield more when some of those older guys move on/are moved on. Blakely, Weller, Tucker, Bennell, Balic (if we keep him) are all flexible and can play more midfield if we need. I'm also bullish about Deluca and Duman adding something because they have speed (maybe even Hughes as well). Plus I think we'll get some more classy smalls in next year's draft and the year after - starting with our academy prospects Carter (in 2018) and then Henry (in 2019). In terms of timing I just think we need to recruit a quality tall this year so we can pump games experience in to them asap. The smalls I can see developing and reaching the necessary level more quickly so probably aren't as urgent. Plus I could see us us considering one or two mature age smalls this draft with later draft/rookie picks (eg Kelly, Liam Ryan etc).
 

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This is getting .....en hard work !
Do not reach for a tall unless he shows exceptional talent and potential.
Go best available, agree on a beast mid/ball getter that can be rolled through back and forward - Fyfe/Mundy type.
I reckon we are getting hung up on centimetres when talking about talls - leap, football smarts and ball winning ability shit all over a monster KPF with no smarts or footy nouse.
Pav and Jonathan Brown weren't over 193cm.
The Saints picked McCartin - spud.
I still reckon Oscar Allen with a pick 16 - 30. Can clunk, athletic and great below the knees.
 
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