Analysis 2017 = Weak year?

[kickazz]

Seeing this line get trotted out a lot on here, can anyone offer some justification behind it?

Equalisation has seen the talent spread far more evenly in the competition, meaning almost no games have been sure things, upsets aplenty, no seemingly bulletproof sides (ala Hawthorn of recent times), and unpredictable, nightmare tipping.

Good for footy? Weak or even? Discuss.

If the trend continues, then I think we will need to adjust how we evaluate success, good teams, and premiership chances.

In the past, you had to be really good to win the flag. It was all about who had the better bottom 6. If you had quite a few ordinary/average players, no chance really.

Now I think that has changed. I really think you can carry a few more players these days.

Does that make it a 'weak year'? Who cares. The same rules that make your opponents weaker make you weaker as well.

 

[Jedi Tiger]

I mean that sounds nice and all, but do you honestly think the Fremantle, Collingwood, Geelong, Sydney, Hawthorn teams of roughly 5 years ago wouldn't absolutely stomp this season?

An interesting question, and most would say yes - but is that indicative of quality or game style? I remember watching Collingwood and Hawthorn impose their physicality and size over the competition to great success, leaving other sides to try and ape the style in hopes of succeeding in the same way. Would the manic, pressure game seeing positive results for Bulldogs '16 and Tigers '17 (thus far) trouble these past sides? I don't think it's 'weak' or lower quality - just a shift in how the game is being played.

 

[kickazz]

Is it weak because there's no stand out or is it strong because it's more equal and therefore getting away from the pack is more difficult? It's a pointless debate and mostly just a subtle way for people to troll the teams still in the mix.

Depends on perspective. Earlier part of the decade and late last decade it was harder to win the flag as there was some top notch, A grade teams like cats, saints, hawks, pies, swans, freo Really good sides.
But it was probably easier to make the 8. This year there are hardly any games you can pencil in for a win.

 

[BTs Nana]

**** I wish I saw this thread before I had a meltdown in another thread about this exact topic.
I'll condense:

EVEN SEASONS ARE HARDER FOR EVERYONE THAN SEASONS WHERE THERE ARE STANDOUT SIDES.

Previous top teams just miss how easy it was for them being so much better than the rest.

It's cyclical.

**** this debate is so obvious

 

[Augustine]

I don't understand how logically one year can be weaker than another? It's the best 792 Players at the sport in Australia divided among 18 teams in a variety of ways every year.

It isn't weaker, it logically cannot be weaker. The difference is that the distribution of quality players is more equitable across the clubs.

The only argument for a "weaker league" is that the expansion teams diluted the quality. I'd counter that the talent pool as simultaneously never been larger which cancels out that effect.

 

[SterlingArcher]

If we're in the finals with what we served up over 23 rounds then it's a pretty weak year.

Not really. Using 8th as why the year is weak is a poor example. 8th nearly always just falls in and is a pretty average side.
2017 - West Coast 12-10 105.7%

Would be competitive v

2016 - North 12-10 105.2% (9-0 to 12-10, weak)
2015 - North 13-9 106.5% (reasonably strong, went 3-4 v regular season top 4 teams)
2014 - Richmond 12-10, 105.8% (weak - went from 3-10 to 12-10 before being flogged week 1, fell in based off Sydney resting up in round 23)
2013 - Carlton 11-11, 106.7% (weak, fell in due to Essendon being banned)
2012 - North 14-8 112.5% (weak - smashed by WC week 1, had 7 games v bottom 4 sides, went 2-5 v top 5 sides with losses including 115 pts to Hawthorn and 96 v West Coast)
2011 - Essendon 11-10-1, 100% (weak - flogged by Carlton week 1 by 10 goals, also lost by 65 pts to Hawthorn, 57 pts to WC, 74 pts to Carlton and 74 pts Collingwood in their last 10 H&A games)

8th is always off the pace. I think Adelaide is a very good side. Sydney might have spent a few tickets to make it to 6th but I'd say after round 6 they are the equal of their 2014 and 2016 selves. Richmond are an exceptional pressure side. GWS and Geelong are talented but have motivation issues. Port at 5th in the regular season would be competitive with most 5th place sides.

 

[Komrade_Tiger]

...impose their physicality and size over the competition to great success, leaving other sides to try and ape the style in hopes of succeeding in the same way...

ASADA/WADA dislikes this post.

 

[Shark882008]

As they say , it takes a lot of luck and things to go right to win premierships. Would not of put Richmond in the top 4 at the start of the year ..now they have one hand on the cup . Definatly a weaker season , but Richmond seem to be in the right place at the right time, and good on them

 

[Heisenberg_]

I for one think it's been the best season in a long time.

 

[PonsfordMagpie]

The top side won 15 games this year. The last time that happened was in 1997 when the Saints finished on top with 15 wins.

It's not a bad year to be in the finals though. It's even and anyone can win it essentially.

 

[Snake_Baker]

The weakest in a long time.

Just check out last nights qualifying final.

 

[Jedi Tiger]

As they say , it takes a lot of luck and things to go right to win premierships. Would not of put Richmond in the top 4 at the start of the year ..now they have one hand on the cup . Definatly a weaker season , but Richmond seem to be in the right place at the right time, and good on them

But what makes it a 'weaker' season? A more even spread of talent across the league, meaning a higher number of 'competitive' sides? Wouldn't it be weaker if there were only a couple of teams dominating everyone else? I'd think that, if anything, more sides in contention for finals and flags makes it a tougher season.

 

[Snake_Baker]

Adelaide lost the best player in the comp and are premiership favorites.

There's your starting point.

 

[Shark882008]

But what makes it a 'weaker' season? A more even spread of talent across the league, meaning a higher number of 'competitive' sides? Wouldn't it be weaker if there were only a couple of teams dominating everyone else? I'd think that, if anything, more sides in contention for finals and flags makes it a tougher season.

Hawthorn are not the same side , neither are Geelong . Bulldogs also had a shocking season, and as good as sydneys run has been, they also in my opinion are extremely beatable at the mcg. That's four sides already from the last 5-6 years out of contention. Like I said the tigers have got all the stars aligning at the moment, and seem like they will go on with it, likely to face Adelaide on there home deck , who let's face it will probably crumble under immense pressure on the big stage at the g.

 

[bullish23]

I think this even year talk is very disrespectful to the crows. For me they've clearly been the best side. Everyone else is even but the crows have consistently been very very good.

 

[Gw2_James]

Only been 2 stand-out sides from start to finish of 2017 compared to 4-5 in previous seasons. If I'm being honest I'm keen for Hawthorn to comeback next year so we can watch some more quality football again. Bulldogs to regain key players - maybe Brisbane will enter the hyperbolic time chamber this off-season. Good thing they're all resetting in a write off year.

Hyperbolic time chamber hahaha, i wonder if anyone else knows where this is from

 

[Knox Harrington]

Adelaide lost the best player in the comp and are premiership favorites.

There's your starting point.

Hawks won one the year after losing Franklin.
Geelong won one the year after losing Gary Ablett jr.

Those guys were at or near the top when the moved clubs. No one calls those weak years.

 

[Adelaide Hawk]

According to cats fans, a weak year is any season geelong don't win the flag.

 

[Snake_Baker]

Hawks won one the year after losing Franklin.
Geelong won one the year after losing Gary Ablett jr.

Those guys were at or near the top when the moved clubs. No one calls those weak years.

These were generational elite sides.

Are you suggesting there is a triple premier in this years bunch (aside from GWS)?

Now that would be humorous.

 

[Knox Harrington]

These were generational elite sides.

Are you suggesting there is a triple premier in this years bunch (aside from GWS)?

Now that would be humorous.

This Adelaide side would be competitive against any of these sides. Not saying they're a triple flag winner though

 

[Benny78]

It is a weak year.

If all the sides were twice as good and still even, the ladder results would be the same .The standard of the game just wouldn't be shit.

 

[Snake_Baker]

This Adelaide side would be competitive against any of these sides. Not saying they're a triple flag winner though

Yeah right. You should be paying attention to the massive blowout that is looming in Sydney.

Another piece of evidence of a weak season.

 

[Scotland]

Not really. Using 8th as why the year is weak is a poor example. 8th nearly always just falls in and is a pretty average side.
2017 - West Coast 12-10 105.7%

Would be competitive v

2016 - North 12-10 105.2% (9-0 to 12-10, weak)
2015 - North 13-9 106.5% (reasonably strong, went 3-4 v regular season top 4 teams)
2014 - Richmond 12-10, 105.8% (weak - went from 3-10 to 12-10 before being flogged week 1, fell in based off Sydney resting up in round 23)
2013 - Carlton 11-11, 106.7% (weak, fell in due to Essendon being banned)
2012 - North 14-8 112.5% (weak - smashed by WC week 1, had 7 games v bottom 4 sides, went 2-5 v top 5 sides with losses including 115 pts to Hawthorn and 96 v West Coast)
2011 - Essendon 11-10-1, 100% (weak - flogged by Carlton week 1 by 10 goals, also lost by 65 pts to Hawthorn, 57 pts to WC, 74 pts to Carlton and 74 pts Collingwood in their last 10 H&A games)

8th is always off the pace. I think Adelaide is a very good side. Sydney might have spent a few tickets to make it to 6th but I'd say after round 6 they are the equal of their 2014 and 2016 selves. Richmond are an exceptional pressure side. GWS and Geelong are talented but have motivation issues. Port at 5th in the regular season would be competitive with most 5th place sides.

We've been garbage this year. Garbage.

 

[Knox Harrington]

Yeah right. You should be paying attention to the massive blowout that is looming in Sydney.

Another piece of evidence of a weak season.

7th and 8th being no chance for a flag isn't new to this season.

We are nowhere near it.

 

[Heisenberg_]

Yeah right. You should be paying attention to the massive blowout that is looming in Sydney.

Another piece of evidence of a weak season.

Team that is close to favourite to win the whole thing belting a side that scraped into the 8 is hardly evidence.
Happens most years