2018/19 Football/Soccer Season

adammania9

Brownlow Medallist
Mar 18, 2013
10,186
20,933
Melbourne
AFL Club
Collingwood
Other Teams
University
Does anybody punt on the soccer here?

Two leg same game multi tomorrow morning
Atletico Madrid vs Borussia Dortmund
- Over 2.5 goals
- Dortmund win/draw double chance
0.4u @ $4.50
 

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one eyedtiger

Club Legend
Jan 4, 2008
1,655
297
Melbourne
AFL Club
Richmond
Other Teams
Liverpool, PAOK
Have a few multis on tonight. Recently i've either been missing by one leg or not hitting any legs, no in between :tearsofjoy: Bottom line I've been losing though no matter what I do!

Tonights are:
Brighton to beat Cardiff @ $3.10
Watford to beat Southampton @ $2.94
Dortmund to beat Bayern @ $3.20
$10 on that for a return of $315.88 (with a price pump)

Multi number 2:
Real Valladolid to beat Eibar @ $2.44
Torino to beat Parma @1.43
West Ham to beat Huddersfield @ $2.28
And the odds that were too juicy to resist United double chance vs City @ $3.15
$5 on that one for a $125 return

Basically $15 spent I won't be seeing again
 

GAsnr

Club Legend
May 17, 2013
1,429
1,175
Melbourne
AFL Club
Geelong
Other Teams
Spurs, Pacers
Has anyone used Poisson to predict results, scorelines, total scores etc?

Would it be better to use short term data (say last 5 home games/away games) or season long data?

And are there any adjustments that can be made to tighten up predictions? There is a lot of easily accessible data relating to xG (as in expected goals allowed per game, or created per game) that I imagine could be used to adjust Poisson predictions.

EG. if on average Everton have been allowing opposition sides 3.1 xG per game, but there opponents have only been scoring 2.2 goals per game, then Everton's actual goals would be less than expected goals.

There might be another bunch of things, like player ins and outs, or home advantage (although this would be adjusted for already using home goals and away goals as seperate stats in the calculation).

Hope this makes sense.
 

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