2018/19 Football/Soccer Season

Remove this Banner Ad

Have gone Atletico, Liverpool & Schalke to win, Napoli/PSG draw @ $12.89

And this is why I shouldn’t bet on the football. Lowest priced leg lets it down, high flying Liverpool lose 2-0 to some no-mark Eastern European team
 

Log in to remove this ad.

Jan 4, 2008
2,179
2,066
Melbourne
AFL Club
Richmond
Other Teams
Liverpool, PAOK
Have a few multis on tonight. Recently i've either been missing by one leg or not hitting any legs, no in between :tearsofjoy: Bottom line I've been losing though no matter what I do!

Tonights are:
Brighton to beat Cardiff @ $3.10
Watford to beat Southampton @ $2.94
Dortmund to beat Bayern @ $3.20
$10 on that for a return of $315.88 (with a price pump)

Multi number 2:
Real Valladolid to beat Eibar @ $2.44
Torino to beat Parma @1.43
West Ham to beat Huddersfield @ $2.28
And the odds that were too juicy to resist United double chance vs City @ $3.15
$5 on that one for a $125 return

Basically $15 spent I won't be seeing again
 
May 17, 2013
1,448
1,195
Melbourne
AFL Club
Geelong
Other Teams
Spurs, Pacers
Has anyone used Poisson to predict results, scorelines, total scores etc?

Would it be better to use short term data (say last 5 home games/away games) or season long data?

And are there any adjustments that can be made to tighten up predictions? There is a lot of easily accessible data relating to xG (as in expected goals allowed per game, or created per game) that I imagine could be used to adjust Poisson predictions.

EG. if on average Everton have been allowing opposition sides 3.1 xG per game, but there opponents have only been scoring 2.2 goals per game, then Everton's actual goals would be less than expected goals.

There might be another bunch of things, like player ins and outs, or home advantage (although this would be adjusted for already using home goals and away goals as seperate stats in the calculation).

Hope this makes sense.
 

Remove this Banner Ad

Back