AFL 2018 - AFL Finals Week 2

[balmainforever]

Game|TAB|Sportsbet|BetEasy|Ladbrokes|Bet365
\Hawthorn |$2.75|$2.75|$2.65|$2.75|$2.65
\Melbourne |$1.45|$1.45|$1.48|$1.47|$1.48
\|line:15.5|line:13.5|line:13.5|line:13.5|line:13.5
\total score:|***.5|***.5|***.5|166.5|***.5

Game|TAB|Sportsbet|BetEasy|Ladbrokes|Bet365
\Collingwood |$1.45|$1.56|$1.60|$1.58|$1.62
\G-W Sydney |$2.75|$2.45|$2.35|$2.45|$2.30
\|line:16.5|line:9.5|line:8.5|line:10.5|line:8.5
\total score:|***.5|***.5|***.5|***.5|***.5

ODDS AT 23.20 ON 8/9/2018

 

[PHX]

Will take more time to look and consider Stratton being out but Hawthorn @ $2.75 already stands out as a good contrarian pick and the classic impressive elimination final win further crunching the odds over the qualifying loser.

I think Demons questionable defense will be far better tested stopping Gunston, Breust, Roughead and Poppy than they were stopping Hawkins and nobody.

The Dees probably deserve to be slight favourites still but $1.45 to $2.75 seems excessive.

 

[Browney2006]

Nothing really shouting out to me at this stage. Maybe Hawthorn for a bit of value at those odds but that’s about it.

 

[adammania9]

Think I’ll dump 100 on the Hawks as soon as Stratton gets the a-OK

 

[PHX]

Think I’ll dump 100 on the Hawks as soon as Stratton gets the a-OK

The Hawks have already ruled Stratton out for the match.

http://www.hawthornfc.com.au/news/2018-09-07/stratton-to-miss-second-final

 

[HTPunter]

Hawks $2.75 and Pies line of -8.5 for me so far.

Even with Stratton out I like the Hawks to be able to control more of the footy and draw even at the stoppages compared to Geelong. Think it's a reasonably 50-50 game so suspect Melbourne may well win but odds should be more $1.90-$1.90 etc in my view so I do like the value.

 

[adammania9]

The Hawks have already ruled Stratton out for the match.

http://www.hawthornfc.com.au/news/2018-09-07/stratton-to-miss-second-final

I have some thinking to do then

 

[LukeParkerno1]

GWS 1-39 is a decent play, and I actually like Hawthorn this week.

 

[iluvparis]

Admittedly haven't bought the Melbourne hype all year but that Hawthorn price looks ludicrous - I expect them to start about $2.40 or so

 

[andwhenitcomes]

166.5 for Hawks/Dees seems a touch low.

 

[LukeParkerno1]

166.5 for Hawks/Dees seems a touch low.

Depends how many Hawthorn score. Think it’s about right

 

[free at last]

I'm on the dees at the line.Melbourne's recent form line is far superior to Hawthorn imo...

 

[Jugada]

Insane that Hawthorn were the same price vs Richmond last week as they are against Melbourne this week

 

[PP34]

Admittedly haven't bought the Melbourne hype all year but that Hawthorn price looks ludicrous - I expect them to start about $2.40 or so

Seems absurd to me. I haven't bought the hype either, but do think Melbourne are a dangerous side when they're on. But they played a team who scraped into the 8. Didn't think Geelong were that bad until I went and watched them on Friday night. Didn't play as a team, coached poorly, too reliant on Dangerfield etc and their bottom players were garbage. Melbourne were good at times, but after that fast start they kicked just 5 goals after the first quarter. A better team would have been right in that game.

Hawthorn have their own doubts, but they're well coached, their forward line has scoring power and they've still got a lot of finals experience. Not 100% convinced they'll win at this stage, but think they're definitely a good chance. And are Melbourne seriously that much better than they were when these two teams faced one another earlier this season?

Think the Giants are good value too. MCG will definitively be a factor but the Giants already knocked them off once this season and that was without Greene. Kelly didn't do a heap that day either as he had groin issues.

 

[Watts4Dinner]

Hawthorn comfortably. That price is the wrong way around.

 

[mookieb]

Insane that Hawthorn were the same price vs Richmond last week as they are against Melbourne this week

I liked Rich ATS last week, but i'm sure the line was impacted by the threat of bad weather.

 

[demon_fanatic]

This happens every year people get carried away with the bottom 8 wins and write off the top 4 loser forgetting they played the elite side.. dogs bucked the trend the other year taking out Hawks... But I'd be taking the Hawks at 2.80 b365!!they weren't bad vs Richmond with breast ,gunston, Burgoyne bound to be better.... Also Forecast looks ugly for Saturday!! 161.5 under nedsmay be the go..at 154.5 b365.. or middle it.. depends if rain clears by night but says possible hail evening so I'd be leaning under 161.5..so often the forecast stuffs us like the port pies game at mcg where it dried out but this forecast has rain at every stage Saturday

 

[AFLFootyChick]

This happens every year people get carried away with the bottom 8 wins and write off the top 4 loser forgetting they played the elite side.. dogs bucked the trend the other year taking out Hawks... But I'd be taking the Hawks at 2.80 b365!!they weren't bad vs Richmond with breast ,gunston,burgoynr bound to be better.... Also Forecast looks ugly for Saturday!! 161.5 under nedsmay be the go..at 154.5 b365.. or middle it.. depends if rain clears by night but says possible hail evening so I'd be leaning under 161.5..so often the forecast stuffs us like the port pies game at mcg where it dried out but this forecast has rain at every stage Saturday

The game is Friday night...top of 22 degrees with 10 per cent chance of rain. Saturday's weather won't impact the Melbourne/Hawthorn game.

 

[demon_fanatic]

The game is Friday night...top of 22 degrees with 10 per cent chance of rain. Saturday's weather won't impact the Melbourne/Hawthorn game.

I am talking about the totals for sat night game sorry I didn't directly note that. The totals vary from 154.5-161.5 so can middle .. Hawks dees is fairly consistent around 165-166

 

[RooTed]

Like TGS o155.5 for Pies/GWS at SB. Probably put smaller bet on both Hawks and Giants H2H as an interest.

Sent from the old mobile using Tapatalk

 

[maskmcgee]

so often the forecast stuffs us like the port pies game at mcg where it dried out

But I looked at the radar an hour before that match and told you the rain would go around the MCG.

 

[demon_fanatic]

But I looked at the radar an hour before that match and told you the rain would go around the MCG.

Yeh I was busy that day B4 game and got stuck with the under lol!

 

[free at last]

Melbourne will bury Hawthorn.
Melbourne haven't tasted any success for so long,hawks have won so many flags over the last decade.Hunger will drive the demons big time imo...

 

[iluvparis]

Melbourne will bury Hawthorn.
Melbourne haven't tasted any success for so long,hawks have won so many flags over the last decade.Hunger will drive the demons big time imo...

Where they not hungry in Rd 23 last year when they only had to beat Collingwood to make finals for the first time in 100 years?

 

[free at last]

Where they not hungry in Rd 23 last year when they only had to beat Collingwood to make finals for the first time in 100 years?

Obviously not hungry enough?