AFL 2018 - AFL Grand Final

[adammania9]

BetEasy’s norm smith odds are awful

 

[Keystone agony]

Adams is a very good, consistent player but he’s probably been best on ground no more than a handful of times in his career. He’s likely to poll but the chances of a win are very slim.

Its a fair point in the last 3 years hes had 2 or 3 votes in 9 games. I dont think hed capture the umpires eye as much as commentators.

Sometimes norm smiths dont need to have those huge days, they are pretty rare in tight contest. I remember the shaun hart, Byron pickett types and a few more since.

30 disposals and a goal would put him very close.

I just think hes well overs at 18s with his form and role. Sidebottom (Tagged heavy), Pendles (Slowing as ageing), Treloar (Hasnt returned that well since hammies). Taylors the one spending the most time in the engine right now for them.

 

[Keystone agony]

This line of thinking doesn't make any sense to me.

Am I missing the Collingwood forward line full of battle hardened veterans?

De goey, Cox, Thomas, Elliott and Mihocek.

Seems pretty straight forward that if West Coast lose, it will be because they can't break even in the middle.

I have concerns about the entire eagles side but they have proved me wrong time and time again. If the smalls cant have an impact upfront it will hurt but like every other area. Mcgovern and Shuey soreness a concern and Mayne will do a role on Mcgovern. Its also a question of whether Redden, Yeo, Shuey, Masten, Hutchings, Sheed are good enough in the middle with the ruck differential already created.

Im feeling pretty confident about the pies comfortably. 3+ goals.

Dry weather maybe helps with Kennedy, hes the one that can kick 6 and take the game away from the pies.

 

[mookieb]

I have concerns about the entire eagles side but they have proved me wrong time and time again. If the smalls cant have an impact upfront it will hurt but like every other area. Mcgovern and Shuey soreness a concern and Mayne will do a role on Mcgovern. Its also a question of whether Redden, Yeo, Shuey, Masten, Hutchings, Sheed are good enough in the middle with the ruck differential already created.

Im feeling pretty confident about the pies comfortably. 3+ goals.

Dry weather maybe helps with Kennedy, hes the one that can kick 6 and take the game away from the pies.

Yeah i'm keen on the Pies too.

No way i'm backing WC at the MCG given their record. Sure they beat Coll their this year but for me it's a massive advantage for Coll given that teams like WC hardly ever play there.

Coll played pretty well in Perth leading for 3 quarters before being overrun. Only query from that game is that Kennedy was very rusty in the first half but looked dangerous in the second.

Shuey and McGovern sore is a negative for WC (although Howe is under a cloud too). I expect Mayne to go to McGovern and Hutchings to Sidebottom.

Some of the WC players like Kennedy, Darling and co were atrocious in their last GR appearance so be interesting to see if they struggle with this or the experience steeled them for the upcoming game.

I would also be concerned for the Eagles build up to the game. Hard game against Coll but the Melb game was a training run. One tough game in a month.

So Coll to win for mine. Norm Smith medal options for me are Mayne (do a job on McGovern and perhaps kick a couple), Treloar - 3rd game back or if WC win surely Kennedy kicks a bag and Redden's in great form. Hurn pops up for medals in games where he is left open and can direct the play with pinpoint disposal. Best bet for me is Grundy though he's in great form, will smash Lycett and hopefully will kick a few goals as well. He's a big name and has a ponytail so he should be one of the players that Daisy recognises lol.

 

[Keystone agony]

Yeah i'm keen on the Pies too.

No way i'm backing WC at the MCG given their record. Sure they beat Coll their this year but for me it's a massive advantage for Coll given that teams like WC hardly ever play there.

Coll played pretty well in Perth leading for 3 quarters before being overrun. Only query from that game is that Kennedy was very rusty in the first half but looked dangerous in the second.

Shuey and McGovern sore is a negative for WC (although Howe is under a cloud too). I expect Mayne to go to McGovern and Hutchings to Sidebottom.

Some of the WC players like Kennedy, Darling and co were atrocious in their last GR appearance so be interesting to see if they struggle with this or the experience steeled them for the upcoming game.

I would also be concerned for the Eagles build up to the game. Hard game against Coll but the Melb game was a training run. One tough game in a month.

So Coll to win for mine. Norm Smith medal options for me are Mayne (do a job on McGovern and perhaps kick a couple), Treloar - 3rd game back or if WC win surely Kennedy kicks a bag and Redden's in great form. Hurn pops up for medals in games where he is left open and can direct the play with pinpoint disposal. Best bet for me is Grundy though he's in great form, will smash Lycett and hopefully will kick a few goals as well. He's a big name and has a ponytail so he should be one of the players that Daisy recognises lol.

Couldnt be more spot on. Pies have caused some damage in their last 5 at the MCG.

Beat North by 66 pts
Lost to tigers (Were in it till last qtr)
Beat Port by 51 pts
Beat GWS by 9 pts (For me that was a little underwhelming considering GWS at MCG)
Beat Tigers by 39pts

Grundys obviousily a top 2 favourite for a reason to win Norm and the commentators love him.

 

[tangolikelama]

Adams is my smokey for the medal. $18 is great odds for one of their main ball getters.

 

[Red Dog Styles]

Ok so whats peoples predictions:
Score lines, Norm, most goals, total points?

I say Weagles between 17 to 23 points, Yeo Norm Smith, most goals Darling, total points over 180

On [device_name] using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[iluvparis]

Ok so whats peoples predictions:
Score lines, Norm, most goals, total points?

I say Weagles between 17 to 23 points, Yeo Norm Smith, most goals Darling, total points over 180

On [device_name] using BigFooty.com mobile app

Collingwood by 3-5 goals, DeGoey Norm and most goals - under 180

Also for those who want a virtual free shot at either Norm or FGS betting - use sportsbets same game multi promo. Take either NSM or FGS with two 1.01 shots and you are basically guaranteed a refund if the bet loses.

 

[pendlebury_10]

Collingwood by 3-5 goals, DeGoey Norm and most goals - under 180

Also for those who want a virtual free shot at either Norm or FGS betting - use sportsbets same game multi promo. Take either NSM or FGS with two 1.01 shots and you are basically guaranteed a refund if the bet loses.

Do they only give cash back on one multi or all placed?

 

[iluvparis]

Do they only give cash back on one multi or all placed?

Only the first I'd say

 

[balmainforever]

For those people in Victoria who can get a copy of the Herald Sun on Friday, they’re offering a free $5 bet with the TAB.

 

[mookieb]

Anyone on the Eagles?

To me they seem to have everything against them:

1. Have lost Nic Nat, Gaff and Shepherd to injury

2. Historically terrible at the MCG - big HGA for Coll

3. McGovern and Shuey likely sore

4. Very soft lead in over the last 4+ weeks with only a tough win against Coll and a cakewalk vs Melb

5. Potential for a bit of rain about which would be a negative for WC

6. Midfield battle - with no Gaff I would tag Yeo and if he's in check can't see the WC midfield getting on top. Grundy will win the ruck - Coll have more depth and better class in the midfield regardless. Hutchings will tag Sidebottom but if he's quiet there is still Adams, Pendles, Treloar, Phillips and co.

Only query for me is whether the GF loss against the Hawks has given them the experience to come out firing Saturday.

 

[GroggSquad]

Anyone on the Eagles?

To me they seem to have everything against them:

1. Have lost Nic Nat, Gaff and Shepherd to injury

2. Historically terrible at the MCG - big HGA for Coll

3. McGovern and Shuey likely sore

4. Very soft lead in over the last 4+ weeks with only a tough win against Coll and a cakewalk vs Melb

5. Potential for a bit of rain about which would be a negative for WC

6. Midfield battle - with no Gaff I would tag Yeo and if he's in check can't see the WC midfield getting on top. Grundy will win the ruck - Coll have more depth and better class in the midfield regardless. Hutchings will tag Sidebottom but if he's quiet there is still Adams, Pendles, Treloar, Phillips and co.

Only query for me is whether the GF loss against the Hawks has given them the experience to come out firing Saturday.

Agree, hard to see a West Coast win considering all the information we have.

 

[flylikeaneagle]

Anyone on the Eagles?

To me they seem to have everything against them:

1. Have lost Nic Nat, Gaff and Shepherd to injury

2. Historically terrible at the MCG - big HGA for Coll

3. McGovern and Shuey likely sore

4. Very soft lead in over the last 4+ weeks with only a tough win against Coll and a cakewalk vs Melb

5. Potential for a bit of rain about which would be a negative for WC

6. Midfield battle - with no Gaff I would tag Yeo and if he's in check can't see the WC midfield getting on top. Grundy will win the ruck - Coll have more depth and better class in the midfield regardless. Hutchings will tag Sidebottom but if he's quiet there is still Adams, Pendles, Treloar, Phillips and co.

Only query for me is whether the GF loss against the Hawks has given them the experience to come out firing Saturday.

confirmation bias is a wonderful thing

 

[GroggSquad]

confirmation bias is a wonderful thing

Your post less wonderful.

Can you provide a counter argument?

 

[flylikeaneagle]

Your post less wonderful.

Can you provide a counter argument?

#1 is true
#2 is somewhat meaningless - especially considering the eagles thrashed the pies at the G this year
#3 is possible, same goes for Howe and anyone else
#4 is meaningless. Eagles "lead-in" was even softer against the dees, look what happened there.
#5 is true
#6 could be true, but the same was said for the Demons "star" midfield last week, and sure he won some hitouts but ask google how effective Gawn was

other factors:

Eagles grand final experience may be worth something, Buckley's terrible record in big games

 

[RooTed]

For those people in Victoria who can get a copy of the Herald Sun on Friday, they’re offering a free $5 bet with the TAB.

Collingwood newsletter isn't worth buying for a $5 bet.

Sent from the old mobile using Tapatalk

 

[RooTed]

Anyone on the Eagles?

To me they seem to have everything against them:

1. Have lost Nic Nat, Gaff and Shepherd to injury

2. Historically terrible at the MCG - big HGA for Coll

3. McGovern and Shuey likely sore

4. Very soft lead in over the last 4+ weeks with only a tough win against Coll and a cakewalk vs Melb

5. Potential for a bit of rain about which would be a negative for WC

6. Midfield battle - with no Gaff I would tag Yeo and if he's in check can't see the WC midfield getting on top. Grundy will win the ruck - Coll have more depth and better class in the midfield regardless. Hutchings will tag Sidebottom but if he's quiet there is still Adams, Pendles, Treloar, Phillips and co.

Only query for me is whether the GF loss against the Hawks has given them the experience to come out firing Saturday.

Sadly as a Victorian this weekend I'm going to have to barrack for... the Storm! Can't stomach the Pies at any time and care as much for the Eagles. Can't see the big dick playing 2 good games in a row and Eagles forwards should be enough to win it.

Sent from the old mobile using Tapatalk

 

[Keystone agony]

Bets Finalised for this big one (Sorry if I forget any)

1U Treloar Under 106.5 @1.87 (Ladsbrokes)

2U J.Redden Under 107.5 @1.88 (Sportsbet)
1.5U Redden Over 100.5 @1.88 (Pointsbet)

2U Sidebottom Under 108.5 @1.88 (Pointsbet)
1.75U Sidebottom Over 100.5 @1.95 (Sportsbet)

2U Lycett Under 71.5 @1.88 (Pointsbet) --- Was going to middle with a 64.5 but missed out due to work and no point now... Ill keep the unders thanks

1.5U Darling Under 77.5 @1.88 (pointsbet)
1.5U Darling Over 68.5 @1.88 (Pointsbet) --- Hopefully don't cop a ban for this​

0.3U T.Adams (Norm Smith) @18 (Sportsbet)
0.3U Grundy (Norm Smith) @11 (Pointsbet)
0.2U Degoey (Norm Smith) @16 (Sportsbet)

0.5U Degoey 2 goals or more @2.00 (Pointsbet)​

GL all, another positive year over and out...…. Bugger you Richmond costing me 5.5k

 

[ALL IN]

Pies to win because the Eagles wont be so tricky when the ball is slippery.
Taylor Adams a steal @ $17 for Norm Smith (Varcoe worth a 20 @ $67 cos everyone loves a good story)

 

[mookieb]

For those people in Victoria who can get a copy of the Herald Sun on Friday, they’re offering a free $5 bet with the TAB.

How much is the Herald Sun? Can you buy 1000 of them or flog them from outside the newsagent he he.

 

[Keystone agony]

I like the Jack Darling line overs at 68.5 if its going to be fairly dry (Pointsbet)

Take away his 2 injured games of 5 and 3 and then his return from injury of 66 in a win.

He avg over 87 for the year admittingly without checking most points would be in home games this year.

Will get an undersized Langdon who seems to play him not too bad but can get found wanting in strength test with him

 

[flylikeaneagle]

1.5U Darling Under 77.5 @1.88 (pointsbet)
1.5U Darling Over 68.5 @1.88 (Pointsbet) --- Hopefully don't cop a ban for this

NEVER EVER go for an arb or middle with the same account at the same book, they will most certainly make notes on your account, and potentially ban you for showing intelligence

 

[demon_fanatic]

hah

NEVER EVER go for an arb or middle with the same account at the same book, they will most certainly make notes on your account, and potentially ban you for showing intelligence

haha yeh pointsbet are dogs.. account managers ring you and treat you well at the start to get you in, then promo ban you even if you bet on spreads quite often, then arrogantly dismiss you when ask about the bans... you will probably get flagged

 

[timster]

Anyone on the Eagles?

To me they seem to have everything against them:

1. Have lost Nic Nat, Gaff and Shepherd to injury

2. Historically terrible at the MCG - big HGA for Coll

3. McGovern and Shuey likely sore

4. Very soft lead in over the last 4+ weeks with only a tough win against Coll and a cakewalk vs Melb

5. Potential for a bit of rain about which would be a negative for WC

6. Midfield battle - with no Gaff I would tag Yeo and if he's in check can't see the WC midfield getting on top. Grundy will win the ruck - Coll have more depth and better class in the midfield regardless. Hutchings will tag Sidebottom but if he's quiet there is still Adams, Pendles, Treloar, Phillips and co.

Only query for me is whether the GF loss against the Hawks has given them the experience to come out firing Saturday.

Hi mate
You raise some great points.
Really finding this game hard to call but as the week goes on i think eagles
FORM eagles form stacks up. Smashed melb at home at 1.80 favs. Melb during the last 6 weeks have been one of the form sides in comp. Eagles def wce with Kennedy coming back rusty.
I think we are over estimating Pies form. Lost to eagles and got run over in last qtr. Defeated tigers who during the last few weeks didnt play that well. Tigers def hawks in the rain.

Weather improving for saturday. Early in the week rain was forecasted which suits pies but now seems clear will suit eagles

MCG very similar to eagles new ground. Plus crowd in GF won't be as strong for Pies as some think. Many vic fans will NOT back pies.

Eagles have better fwd and backs. Mids will b a big factor.

On paper eagles look stronger and more experienced.

Going for value and think eagles by 4 goals